Category Archives: Tropical Cyclones

Information about tropical cyclones

Celia Strengthens Back to a Tropical Storm

One time Tropical Storm Celia strengthened back to a tropical storm over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Tuesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 99.5°W which put it about 365 miles (590 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico. Celia was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

After passing south of Guatemala during the weekend as a weak tropical depression, former Tropical Storm Celia strengthened back to a tropical storm on Tuesday morning. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles in the northern half of Tropical Storm Celia. Winds in the southern half of Celia were blowing at less than tropical storm force. The circulation around Tropical Storm Celia continued to be poorly organized. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands located west of the center of Celia’s circulation. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level ridge over southern Mexico was producing moderate easterly winds that were blowing across the top of Celia’s circulation. Those winds cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Celia will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Celia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. However, the upper level ridge over southern Mexico will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification during the next day or so. Tropical Storm Celia will move into an area where the upper level winds are weaker later this week. That will cause the vertical wind shear to diminish. Tropical Storm Celia is likely to intensify when the shear diminishes. Celia could strengthen to a hurricane by the end of the week.

Tropical Storm Celia will move south of a high pressure system over Mexico during the next 48 hours. The high pressure system will steer Celia toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Celia will move parallel to the coast of southwest Mexico.

Tropical Depression Celia Passes South of Guatemala

Tropical Depression Celia passed south of Guatemala on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Celia was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 92.4°W which put it about 130 miles (210 km) southwest of Puerto San Jose, Guatemala. Celia was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Depression Celia weakened during the weekend. A few thunderstorms formed near the center of Celia, but most of the circulation consisted of bands of showers and lower clouds. An upper level ridge over southeastern Mexico produced easterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Depression Celia. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms that started to develop in Tropical Depression Celia.

Tropical Depression Celia will move through an environment mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Celia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge over southeastern Mexico will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will prevent intensification during the next day or so. Tropical Depression Celia will move into an area where the upper level winds are weaker early next week. That will cause the vertical wind shear to diminish. Tropical Depression Celia could strengthen when the shear diminishes.

Tropical Depression Celia will move south of a high pressure system over Mexico during the next 48 hours. The high pressure system will to steer Celia toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Celia will move parallel to the south coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Blas weakened south of Baja California. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Blas was located at latitude 19.0°N and longitude 113.0°W which put it about 335 miles (540 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Blas was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Depression Three-E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Celia

Former Tropical Depression Three-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Celia over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of El Salvador on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 89.3°W which put it about 145 miles (235 km) south of San Salvador, El Salvador. Celia was moving toward the north-northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Three-E strengthened on Friday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded it to Tropical Storm Celia. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Storm Celia. Bands in the eastern half of Celia’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The circulation around Tropical Storm Celia was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Celia.

Tropical Storm Celia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Celia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Celia could strengthen gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Celia will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 18 hours. A broad area of low pressure over Central America and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will steer Celia slowly toward the north during the next 18 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Celia will move slowly closer to El Salvador. Rainbands in the northern fringes of Celia could drop heavy rain over parts of El Salvador and Guatemala. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. A high pressure system will strengthen over Mexico during the weekend. The high pressure system is likely to steer Tropical Storm Celia toward the west.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Blas strengthened a little as it moved away from the southwest coast of Mexico. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Blas was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 109.0°W which put it about 320 miles (515 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Blas was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Depression Three-E Forms South of El Salvador

Tropical Depression Three-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of El Salvador on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Three-E was located at latitude 10.8°N and longitude 89.9°W which put it about 205 miles (330 km) south-southwest of San Salvador, El Salvador. The tropical depression was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of El Salvador strengthened on Thursday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Three-E. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Tropical Depression Three-E. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the depression. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Three-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression Three-E is very likely to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Three-E will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. A broad area of low pressure over Central America and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will steer the tropical depression slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Three-E will move slowly closer to El Salvador. Rainbands in the northern fringes of the tropical depression could drop heavy rain over parts of El Salvador and Guatemala. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Blas churned southwest of Mexico. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Blas was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 105.6°W which put it about 210 miles (340 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Blas was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Blas Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Blas rapidly intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Blas was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 102.8°W which put it about 300 miles (485 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Blas was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Blas rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours and Blas reached hurricane intensity on Wednesday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hurricane Blas and a small eye was apparent on microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Blas. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions. The circulation around Blas was small. Hurricane force winds extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation. Tropical storm force winds extended out 45 miles from the center.

Hurricane Blas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Blas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Blas will strengthen during the next 24 hours. Blas could continue to intensify rapidly since an inner core has formed.

Hurricane Blas will move south of the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico during the next several days. The high pressure system will steer Blas toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Hurricane Blas will move slowly away from the west coast of Mexico during the next 24 hours.

Possible Development over Southwest Caribbean Sea

A tropical depression or tropical storm could develop over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua during the next few days. An area of low pressure at the surface, currently designated as Invest 93L, is over that area. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Invest 93L was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 82.2°W which put it about 110 miles (175 km) east of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Invest 93L was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Invest 93L was located on the eastern side of a larger area of low pressure that extends from the Southwestern Caribbean Sea across Central America to the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. A second, small low pressure system, currently designated as Invest 93E, was located over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of El Salvador. Visible satellite images appeared to show some counterclockwise rotation of lower clouds over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua. A few thunderstorms formed near the apparent center of circulation, but the system did not possess enough organization to be classified as a tropical depression.

Invest 93L will be in an environment that is somewhat favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next few days. Invest 93L will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. If Invest 93L remains over the Southwest Caribbean Sea, it could develop into a tropical depression during the next 48 hours. However, if the center of Invest 93L moves inland over Nicaragua, then it will not develop. The National Hurricane Center is indicating there is a probability of 40% that Invest 93L develops into a tropical cyclone. A reconnaissance plane has been tentatively tasked to investigate Invest 93L on Wednesday afternoon, if necessary.

Invest 93L will move near the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends from the Western Atlantic Ocean over the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The steering winds are weak near the southwestern part of the high pressure system, but those winds could steer Invest 93L slowly toward the northwest during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Invest 93L will move close to the coast of Nicaragua. Invest 93L could drop heavy rain over parts of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica and El Salvador. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some places.

Tropical Depression Two-E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Blas

Former Tropical Depression Two-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Blas over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico on Tuesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Blas was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 102.1°W which put it about 380 miles (615 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Blas was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Blas intensified on Tuesday morning. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Blas. Thunderstorms were also forming in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Blas. Bands in the northern half of Blas consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Blas.

Tropical Storm Blas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Blas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Blas will intensify during the next 48 hours. It could strengthen to a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Blas will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. It will move slowly toward the north during that time. The western end of a high pressure system will extend over Mexico on Wednesday. The high pressure system will start to steer Blas toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Blas will move away from the west coast of Mexico later this week.

Tropical Depression Two-E Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Depression Two-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Monday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Two-E was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 102.4°W which put it about 395 miles (635 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. The tropical depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

More thunderstorms developed around the center of a low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Monday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Two-E. The circulation around Tropical Depression Two-E was gradually becoming more organized. Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of the depression and in bands in the southern half of the circulation. Bands in the northern half of Tropical Depression Two-E consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Two-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression Two-E is likely to intensify to a tropical storm on Tuesday. It could strengthen to a hurricane within 48 hours.

Tropical Depression Two-E will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. It will move slowly and erratically during that time. The western end of a high pressure system will extend over Mexico on Wednesday. The high pressure system will start to steer Tropical Depression Two-E toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Two-E will move away from the west coast of Mexico later this week.

Tropical Storm Alex Brings Gusty Winds to Bermuda

Tropical Storm Alex brought gusty winds to Bermuda on Monday morning. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located at latitude 33.8°N and longitude 65.1°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) north-northwest of Bermuda. Alex was moving toward the east-northeast at 28 m.p.h. (44 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Alex brought gusty winds to Bermuda on Monday morning as the center of Alex was passing north of the island. A Bermuda Weather Service buoy at Crescent Reef reported a sustained wind speed of 55 m.p.h. (89 km/h) with gusts to 72 m.p.h. (116 km/h). The Bermuda airport reported a sustained wind speed of 39 m.p.h. (63 km/h) with gusts to 59 m.p.h. (95 km/h).

Tropical Storm Alex was in the middle of a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it passed north of Bermuda on Monday morning. The bands near the center of Alex consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in a band located 200 miles (320 km) southeast of the center of Tropical Storm Alex. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. was producing strong westerly winds that were blowing across the top of Alex’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. Drier air was being pulled into the center of Tropical Storm Alex. Alex was also moving over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures. The combination of vertical wind shear, drier air and cooler water was causing the transition to an extratropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Alex will continue to move through an environment favorable for the transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Alex will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. The upper level trough will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear and the drier air will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms near the center of Alex’s circulation. Tropical Storm Alex could complete a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will steer Tropical Storm Alex quickly toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated path Tropical Storm Alex will move quickly away from Bermuda on Monday afternoon. Wind speeds will decrease on Bermuda as Alex moves farther away.

Tropical Storm Alex Strengthens West of Bermuda

Tropical Storm Alex strengthened over the Atlantic Ocean west of Bermuda on Sunday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located at latitude 31.5°N and longitude 71.5°W which put it about 395 miles (640 km) west of Bermuda. Alex was moving toward the east-northeast at 28 m.p.h. (44 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

A reconnaissance flight found that Tropical Storm Alex intensified west of Bermuda on Sunday afternoon. Even though Alex strengthened, the distribution of thunderstorms remained asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Tropical Storm Alex. The strongest winds were occurring in those bands of storms. Bands in the western part of Alex’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Alex. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the western half of the circulation.

An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Alex’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The circulation around Alex was also pulling some drier air into the western half of the tropical storm. A combination of vertical wind shear and drier air were contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Alex will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Alex will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25˚C. The upper level trough over eastern U.S. will continue to produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Alex. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The drier in the western half of Alex’s circulation will also inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Alex could strengthen a little more during the next 12 hours. However, cooler Sea Surface Temperatures, vertical wind shear and drier air are likely to cause Alex to weaken on Monday. Alex could make a transition to an extratropical cyclone over the Atlantic Ocean during the middle of the week.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Tropical Storm Alex toward the east-northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alex will affect Bermuda on Monday. Alex will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Bermuda. Heavy rain could cause flash floods. Since the and strongest winds and heaviest rain are in the eastern half of Alex, they could begin to affect Bermuda on Sunday night.