Category Archives: Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic TCs

Tropical Storm Cristobal Moves Toward Louisiana

Tropical Storm Cristobal moved toward Louisiana on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 90.1°W which put it about 440 miles (705 km) south of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Cristobal was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City to Morgan City, Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Cristobal strengthened slowly after the center of circulation moved over the southern Gulf of Mexico.  Cristobal moved under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The flow around the ridge created upper level divergence which pumped away mass and caused the surface pressure to decrease by several millibars.  Cristobal strengthened back to a tropical storm when the wind speed increased in response to the decrease in pressure.  The distribution of thunderstorms and the wind field around Tropical Storm Cristobal remained asymmetrical.  The strongest rainbands wrapped around the eastern and northern sides if the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) on the eastern side of Cristobal.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) northwest of the center of circulation.  The winds in the southwestern part of the circulation were mostly below tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will continue to move under the western side of the upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, which will inhibit intensification.  However, the ridge will continue to create upper level divergence which will support intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Cristobal will strengthen on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cristobal will approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday afternoon.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal is large and winds to tropical storm force will reach the coast around the northern Gulf of Mexico several hours before the center makes landfall.  Cristobal will bring gusty winds to the portion of the coast from Northwest Florida to Southeast Louisiana on Sunday.  Those winds will blow water toward the coast and they will cause a storm surge of 1 to 4 feet (0.3 to 1.3 meters) in many locations.  The water could rise by 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) in some locations.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will also drop heavy rain over parts of Northwest Florida, Southwest Alabama, Southern Mississippi and Southeast Louisiana.  Flood Watches have been issued for some of those areas.

Tropical Depression Cristobal Moves North, Watches Issued for U.S. Gulf Coast

Tropical Depression Cristobal began to move toward the north on Friday morning and watches were issued for parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 89.9°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) east of Campeche, Mexico.  Cristobal was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the border between Alabama and Florida including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos.

The circulation around Tropical Depression Cristobal exhibited more organization on Friday morning.  Bands of strong thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern and northern portions of the circulation.  Bands in the southern and western sides of Cristobal still consisted primarily of shower and lower clouds.  The center of circulation was still over the Yucatan peninsula and there were not a lot of thunderstorms close to the center.

Tropical Depression Cristobal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be large enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression Cristobal will strengthen into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Cristobal will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north during the next 36 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal could approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday afternoon.  Cristobal is likely to be a tropical storm when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast but there is a slight chance it could be a hurricane at that time.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will bring gusty winds to the north central Gulf Coast.  Those winds will push water toward the shore and they will generate a storm surge along the coast.  Many places could experience a rise in the water level of 1 to 4 feet (0.3 to 1.3 meters).  In some locations the water level could rise 4 to 6 feet (1.3 to 2.0 meters).  Rainbands on the northern and eastern sides of Cristobal could drop heavy rain.  Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into Tropical Depression Cristobal on Friday evening.  Their observations should provide important information about the circulation around Cristobal.

Tropical Depression Cristobal Meanders over the Yucatan

Tropical Depression Cristobal meandered over the Yucatan peninsula on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 90.4°W which put it about 145 miles (235 km) south of Campeche, Mexico.  Cristobal was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Depression Cristobal weakened on Thursday while the circulation meandered over the Yucatan peninsula.  Winds speeds gradually diminished because much of the circulation of Cristobal was over land.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  There were still strong thunderstorms in bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  Some of those bands were dropping heavy rain over the Yucatan peninsula, northern Belize and northern Guatemala.

Tropical Depression Cristobal will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea during the next several days.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Cristobal will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday.  Cristobal could approach the coast around the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Tropical Depression Cristobal will move into an environment somewhat favorable for intensification when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will be large enough to slow intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening of Cristobal.  Tropical Depression Cristobal is likely to intensify back into a tropical storm over the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Cristobal could approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday.  Watches could be issued for portions of the coast on Friday.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Drops Heavy Rain on Campeche

Tropical Storm Cristobal dropped heavy rain on Campeche on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 91.8°W which put it about 20 miles (35 km) south of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico.  Cristobal was moving toward the southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Coatzacoalcos,, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal move slowly onto the coast of Mexico just west of Ciudad del Carmen on Wednesday.  The circulation around Cristobal began to weaken slowly as the center moved over land.  However, the large circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal meant that a significant portion of the tropical storm was still over water.  That allowed Cristobal to extract energy from the Bay of Campeche to support its circulation.

A weather radar at Sabancuy, Mexico showed that the circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal remained well organized.  Strong bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Cristobal.  The bands were dropping heavy rain over parts of Campeche and flooding was likely in some areas that received persistent heavy rain.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will be near the center of a larger counterclockwise circulation sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG) during the next 24 to 36 hours.  The steering currents are weak at the center of the CAG and it will likely cause Cristobal to move in a slow counterclockwise loop on Thursday.  The CAG will contract around Tropical Storm Cristobal during the next day or so.  A high pressure system over the western North Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea will start to steer Cristobal toward the north on Friday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cristobal could approach the north coast of the Gulf of Mexico by late in the upcoming weekend.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will weaken slowly while the center is over land.  It could weaken to a tropical depression on Thursday.  However, Cristobal will continue to drop heavy rain over Campeche and parts of the Yucatan peninsula.  Very serious flooding could result from the heavy rainfall.  Tropical Storm Cristobal is likely to strengthen once the center of circulation moves back over the Gulf of Mexico on Friday.

Tropical Depression Three Strengthens Into Tropical Storm Cristobal

Former Tropical Depression Three strengthened into Tropical Storm Cristobal on Tuesday.  At 12:15 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 92.7°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) northwest of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico.  Cristobal was moving toward the southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz, Mexico

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane investigating former Tropical Depression Three on Tuesday found sustained winds of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Cristobal.  The formation of Tropical Storm Cristobal on June 2 is the earliest date for the formation on the third named storm over the Atlantic Basin (including the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) in the historical record.

The reconnaissance plane found that the circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal was continuing to get better organized.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers were revolving around the center of Cristobal.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge centered over the western Caribbean Sea.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Cristobal is likely to strengthen during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move around the northwestern part of a larger counterclockwise circulation sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG).  The CAG will steer Cristobal toward the southwest during the next few hours.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will move more toward the south on Tuesday night.  The larger CAG will slowly contract around the circulation of Cristobal during the next several days.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will meander slowly near the south coast of the Bay of Campeche while the CAG contracts.  Eventually, a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean will steer Cristobal northward toward the U.S.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will mix cooler water to the surface while it meanders over the southern Bay of Campeche.  The cooler water will reduce the energy available to Cristobal and the tropical storm could weaken during the middle of the week.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will weaken even more if the center of circulation moves over land.  Cristobal will drop heavy rain over Campeche, Tabasco and eastern Veracruz.  Prolonged heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Depression Three Develops Over Bay of Campeche

Tropical Depression Three developed over the Bay of Campeche on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Three was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 91.2°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) north-northeast of Carmen, Mexico.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz.  

The remnants of the center of circulation of former Tropical Storm Amanda moved northward across Honduras and emerged over the eastern Bay of Campeche on Monday afternoon.  The National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Three and initiated advisories on the system.

More thunderstorms began to form on the northern side of Tropical Depression Three after the center of circulation moved over the eastern Bay of Campeche.  More thunderstorms were developing near the center.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms that included the remnants of the the circulation of former Tropical Storm Amanda were revolving around the center of the depression.

Tropical Depression Three will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the depression.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression Three is likely to intensify into a tropical storm on Tuesday.

Tropical Depression Three will move around the northern side of a larger counterclockwise circulation sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG).  The CAG will steer the depression toward the west-northwest during the next 12 to 24 hours.   The depression could move toward the southwest on Tuesday when it moves around the northwestern part of the CAG.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Three could approach the coast around the southern Bay of Campeche.   The depression could drop heavy rain over Campeche, Tabasco and eastern Veracruz.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Bertha Brings Wind and Rain to the Carolinas

Tropical Storm Bertha brought wind and rain to the Carolinas on Wednesday.  Bertha weakened to a tropical depression after it moved inland on Wednesday afternoon.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Bertha was located at latitude 36.0°N and longitude 80.5°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) west of Greensboro, North Carolina.  Bertha was moving toward the north at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h.  (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Flash Flood Watches were in effect for northeast South Carolina, southern and west central North Carolina, southwest Virginia and southwest West Virginia.

Tropical Storm Bertha developed rapidly on Wednesday morning and it was still strengthening when it made landfall on the coast of South Carolina.  The center of Bertha officially made landfall east of Charleston near Mount Pleasant around midday on Wednesday.  NOAA buoy 41004 which is located southeast of Charleston measured a sustained wind speed of 40 m.p.h (65 km/h) and a gust of 58 m.p.h. (94 km/h).  NOAA buoy 41029 (Capers Nearshore) measured a surface pressure of 1005.8 mb when the center of Bertha passed near it.

A weather station at Shaw Air Force Base measured 2.00 inches (51 mm)  of rain.  A weather station in downtown Charleston, South Carolina measured 1.61 inches (41 mm).  Charlotte, North Carolina received 1.64 inches (42 mm), Greensboro received 1.09 inches (28 mm) and Winston Salem received 1.04 inches (26 mm).

Tropical Depression Bertha will move around the western end of a surface high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Bertha toward the north on Thursday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Bertha will move across western Virginia, West Virginia, eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania.  Bertha will drop rain over those areas on Thursday.  Locally heavy rain could cause flooding in some locations.

Storm Storm Bertha Forms Near South Carolina

Tropical Storm Bertha formed quickly near the coast of South Carolina on Wednesday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located at latitude 32.7°N and longitude 79.4°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina.  Bertha was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

The National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the portion of the coast from Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina.

The circulation around a low pressure system off the southeast coast of the U.S. organized quickly on Wednesday morning.  A distinct center of circulation was evident on radar.  Radar and satellite images also showed bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving around the center of circulation.  NOAA buoy 41004 southeast of Charleston, South Carolina measured a sustained wind speed of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and a gust to 58 m.p.h. (94 km/h).  Based on all of that information the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Bertha.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Bertha toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bertha will make landfall on the coast of South Carolina east of Charleston later on Wednesday.  Bertha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 24°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Based on recent trends Tropical Storm Bertha could strengthen before it makes landfall.  Bertha will drop heavy rain over eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.  The heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.  Waves will cause erosion along the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina.

Tropical Storm Arthur Brings Wind and Rain to Eastern North Carolina

Tropical Storm Arthur brought wind and rain to eastern North Carolina on Monday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located at latitude 34.5°N and longitude 75.9°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Arthur was moving toward the north-northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

Tropical Storm Arthur began to move more quickly toward the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Monday morning.  The distribution of thunderstorms and winds around Arthur was asymmetric.  The strong thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in those bands.  Bands in the western half of Tropical Storm Arthur consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the eastern half of Arthur.  The winds in the western half of Arthur were mostly less than tropical storm force.

The asymmetric structure of Tropical Storm Arthur meant that the strongest winds were occurring east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  A buoy at Diamond Shoals was reporting a sustained wind speed of 33 m.p.h. (54 km/h) and wind gusts to 47 m.p.h. (76 km/h).  The wind speeds along the coast of North Carolina were much weaker.  Tropical Storm Arthur was dropping moderate rain over eastern North Carolina.   Wind blowing water toward the coast was causing the water level to rise in some locations.  Waves were causing erosion on some beaches.

A large upper level trough will approach Tropical Storm Arthur from the west.  The trough will turn Arthur more toward the east later on Monday.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Arthur should move away from North Carolina on Monday afternoon.  Weather conditions should improve gradually when Arthur moves farther form the coast.

Tropical Storm Arthur Prompts Warning for North Carolina

Tropical Storm Arthur prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of North Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located at latitude 30.5°N and longitude 77.4°W which put it about 345 miles (560 km) south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Arthur was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (96 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Arthur exhibited more organization on Sunday morning.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were wrapping around the eastern and northern parts of the circulation.  Bands on the western side of Arthur still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Arthur.  The winds on the western side of Arthur were mostly below tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Arthur will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Arthur will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 25°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge centered off the southeast coast of the U.S.  The winds in the upper ridge are relatively weak and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Arthur is likely to get stronger during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Arthur will move around the western end of a high pressure system during the next 24 hours.  The ridge will steer Arthur toward the north-northeast during the next day or so.  A large upper level trough over the central U.S. will approach Tropical Storm Arthur on Monday.  The trough will steer Arthur more toward the east.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Arthur will approach the coast of North Carolina on Monday.  Arthur will bring gusty winds to the coast.  Wind blowing toward the shore will cause the water level to rise.  Waves will cause beach erosion.