Category Archives: Eastern and Central Pacific

TCs between Mexico and Hawaii

Tropical Storm Dolores Drops Heavy Rain over Western Mexico

Tropical Storm Dolores dropped heavy rain over western Mexico on Saturday. Dolores weakened to a tropical depression on Saturday evening when the center moved inland. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Dolores was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 104.2°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) northeast of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Dolores was moving toward the north-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Dolores made landfall on the coast of Mexico southeast of Manzanillo on Saturday afternoon. The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) at the time of landfall. Dolores moved steadily toward the north-northwest after it made landfall. The lower part of the circulation around Tropical Storm Dolores weakened quickly when it moved inland over the mountains in west central Mexico. Even though it was weakening, rising motion in portions of the circulation around Dolores was enhanced in places where the air moved up the sides of mountains. Tropical Storm Dolores dropped heavy rain over parts of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit.

Tropical Storm Dolores Strengthens Near Mexico

Tropical Storm Dolores strengthened near the west coast of Mexico on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 103.4°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Dolores was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa, Mexico.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dolores exhibited much more organization on Saturday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western, southern and eastern sides of the center of circulation. An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Dolores. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The circulation around Tropical Storm Dolores was relatively small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern half of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the southern half of Dolores.

Tropical Storm Dolores will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Dolores will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak in that portion of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Dolores could strengthen to a hurricane before it makes landfall.

Tropical Storm Dolores will move around the western end of a small high pressure system over southern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Dolores toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dolores could make landfall on the coast of Mexico east of Manzanillo in a few hours. Dolores could be a hurricane when it makes landfall. Tropical Storm Dolores will bring gusty winds to the region near and to the east of Manzanillo. It could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) in some locations on the coast. Bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Dolores could drop heavy rain on parts of western Guerrero, Colima and Jalisco. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Dolores Forms South of Mexico, Warning Issued

Tropical Storm Dolores formed south of Mexico on Friday morning and the government of Mexico issued warnings and watches for portions of the coast. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 102.5°W which put it about 320 miles (515 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Dolores was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa, Mexico.

The circulation around a low pressure system south of Mexico strengthened on Friday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Dolores. Dolores exhibited increasing organization on conventional and microwave satellite imagery. Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Dolores.

Tropical Storm Dolores will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Dolores will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Dolores. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Dolores will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Dolores will move around the western end of a small high pressure system over southern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Dolores toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dolores could approach the coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes on Saturday. Dolores could be a hurricane when it approaches the coast. Bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Dolores could drop heavy rain on parts of Colima and Jalisco. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Carlos Forms Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Carlos formed southwest of Baja California on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 124.5°W which put it about 1225 miles (1970 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Carlos was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system southwest of Baja California exhibited more organization on satellite imagery on Saturday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Carlos. More thunderstorms were developing near the center of Carlos. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. However, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Carlos. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) on the northern side of Carlos. The winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force in the southern half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Carlos will move through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Carlos will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Carlos. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and they already contributed to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Carlos will likely strengthen on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Carlos will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Carlos toward the west during the next 24 hours. The steering currents could weaken during the early part of next week and Tropical Storm Carlos could meander slowly well to the southwest of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Blanca Weakens South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Blanca weakened south of Baja California on Tuesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 110.9°W which put it about 570 miles (915 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. Blanca was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

After reaching its maximum intensity on Monday night when the sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h), Tropical Storm Blanca weakened on Tuesday afternoon. An upper level trough west of Baja California produced moderate southwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Blanca’s circulation. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear and the shear caused Tropical Storm Blanca to weaken. The vertical wind shear also caused an asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms around Blanca. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Blanca. Bands in the western half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Blanca.

Tropical Storm Blanca will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Blanca will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However the upper level trough west of Baja California will cause strong vertical wind shear and the wind shear will cause Blanca to weaken. Tropical Storm Blanca could weaken to a tropical depression in a day or two.

Tropical Storm Blanca will move around the southern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Blanca toward the west-northwest during the next two days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Blanca will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Blanca Develops Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Blanca developed southwest of Mexico on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 108.9°W which put it about 520 miles (840 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Blanca was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Former Tropical Depression Two-E strengthened on Monday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center named the system Tropical Storm Blanca. The circulation around Blanca organized quickly on Monday. More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The circulation around Tropical Storm Blanca was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles from the center of Blanca.

Tropical Storm Blanca will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Blanca will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Blanca will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Blanca will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Blanca toward the west-northwest during the next two days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Blanca will move away from Mexico.

Andres Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Andres weakened to a tropical depression on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Andres was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 109.8°W which put it about 475 miles (765 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. Andres was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Strong vertical wind shear caused former Tropical Storm Andres to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday afternoon. An upper level trough northwest of Baja California was producing strong southwesterly winds which were blowing across the top of Tropical Depression Andres. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and they were blowing the tops off of thunderstorms that tried to form. A few thunderstorms developed east of the center of Andres earlier on Monday, but the strong upper level winds blew the tops off of those storms. The circulation around Tropical Depression Andres consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds on Monday afternoon.

Tropical Depression Andres will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Andres will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 26°C. However, the upper level trough northwest of Baja California will continue to produce strong upper level winds over Tropical Depression Andres. The strong upper level winds will blow the tops off any thunderstorms that begin to form and the circulation around Andres will gradually weaken.

Since the circulation around Tropical Depression Andres exists primarily in the lower levels, it will be steered by the wind closer to the surface. A large surface high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will steer Andres toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Andres will dissipate southwest of Baja California later this week.

TD 01E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Andres

Former Tropical Depression One-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Andres southwest of Mexico on Sunday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Andres was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 107.9°W which put it about 620 miles (1000 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Andres was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression One-E strengthened on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Andres. The circulation around Andres was exhibiting more organization. Storms near the center of the circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Andres. The strongest rainbands were in the eastern half of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Andres. The winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Andres will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Andres will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 28°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge southwest of Mexico. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Andres could strengthen during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will approach Andres from the west on Monday. The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical storm. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. More wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Andres to weaken early next week.

Tropical Storm Andres will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico and Mexico. The high will steer Andres toward the northwest on Sunday. Tropical Storm Andres will move southeast of a large high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the early part of next week. That high pressure system will steer Andres toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Andres will remain south of Baja California.

Tropical Depression One-E Forms Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Depression One-E formed southwest of Mexico on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 107.7°W which put it about 645 miles (1035 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. The depression was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system formerly called Invest 90E on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression One-E. The circulation around the depression was exhibiting more organization. Storms near the center of the depression began to generate more upper level divergence which pumped mass away from it. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center.

Tropical Depression One-E will move through an environment favorable for develop of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. The tropical depression will move under the center of an upper level ridge southwest of Mexico. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression One-E is likely to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will approach the depression from the west on Monday. The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. More wind shear will cause the depression to weaken early next week.

Tropical Depression One-E will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico and Mexico. The high will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest on Sunday. Tropical Depression One-E will move southeast of a large high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the early part of next week. That high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression One-E will remain south of Baja California.

Tropical Development Possible Southwest of Mexico

Development of a tropical cyclone southwest of Mexico is possible during the next few days. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Invest 90E was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 102.5°W which put it about 415 miles (670 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. The Invest was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

An area of low pressure, currently designated as Invest 90E, exhibited more organization on Friday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook for the low pressure system. NHC indicated that there was a 40% probability that the system would develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next 48 hours and a 60% chance that development would occur during the next five days.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of Invest 90E. Bands of showers and thunderstorms also developed and the bands began to revolve around the center of the low pressure system. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the system.

Invest 90E will move through an environment favorable for develop of a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. The low pressure system will move under the center of an upper level ridge southwest of Mexico. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Invest 90E is likely to develop into a tropical depression and it could quickly intensify into a tropical storm.

Invest 90E will move southeast of a large high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the Invest slowly toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track the low pressure system will remain southwest of Mexico during the weekend.