A well defined center of circulation developed in the lower levels of an area of thunderstorms near the southwest coast of Madagascar and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Fundi.  At 5:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fundi was located at latitude 22.8°N and longitude 42.9°E which put it about 60 miles west of Toliara, Madagascar.  Fundi was moving toward the southeast at 8 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 50 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The environment around Fundi contains some factors that would support intensification and other factors that would inhibit intensification.  It is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and there is well developed outflow in the upper levels.  Those factors would favor intensification.  However, the center of circulation is very close to the coast of Madagascar and part of the circulation is over land.  Interaction with land will inhibit future intensification.  If the center of circulation remains over the water, then some intensification is possible during the next day or two.  If the center of circulation moves over southern Madagascar, then it will weaken.  Eventually, Fundi will move poleward and encounter colder Sea Surface Temperatures and more vertical wind shear.

A subtropical ridge located east of Fundi is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southeast.  The ridge is expected to continue to steer it toward the southeast or south in the short term.  As Fundi moves farther south, it will begin to encounter upper level westerly winds which will turn it more toward the east.

Tropical Cyclone Eunice strengthened rapidly on Thursday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean and it has attained an intensity equivalent to that of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 8:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Eunice was located at latitude 17.7°S and longitude 67.7°E, which put it about 780 miles south-southwest of Diego Garcia.  It was moving toward the south-southeast at 10 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. and it was estimate that there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 918 mb.

Eunice has been in an environment very conducive for rapid intensification.  It has moved over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and upper level winds have been quite light.  As a result deep convection has been ongoing around the core of the circulation and upper level outflow has pumped out large quantities of mass.  Those processes caused the pressure to decrease rapidly and the wind speeds increased in a corresponding manner.  Eunice will remain in a favorable environment for another day or so.  After that time it will move to a higher latitude, which will place it in an area of lower Sea Surface Temperatures and more vertical wind shear.   Eunice is likely to weaken without threatening any land area.

Tropical Cyclone Chedza is moving across the central portion of Madagascar.  At 3:00 p.m. EST the center of Chedza was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 44.7°E which put it near Belo Tsiribihina.  It was moving toward the east-southeast at 10 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 55 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Low vertical wind shear and warm Sea Surface Temperatures created an environment favorable for intensification and Chedza strengthened prior to making landfall in western Madagascar.  Satellite imagery indicated an eyelike feature formed and it is possible that Chedza may have reached hurricane intensity before landfall.  The terrain of Madagascar is weakening the lower portions of the circulation and that trend should continue while the center is over land.  It is possible that Chedza could strengthen after the center moves back over water east of Madagascar.

The tropical cyclone closest to land is Tropical Cyclone Chedza.  A cluster of thunderstorms meandering over the Mozambique Channel organized rapidly on Thursday and developed into Tropical Cyclone Chedza.  At 9:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Chedza was located at latitude 19.1°S and longitude 42.4°E which put it about 140 miles west-northwest of Belo Tsiribihina, Madagascar.  It was moving toward the east at 6 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 55 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Chedza is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the upper level winds are relatively light.  Further intensification is likely until Chedza makes landfall on Friday.  It is expected to weaken as it crosses Madagascar.  Some re-intensification may be possible after the center emerges over the Indian Ocean east of Madagascar.  Potential risks include locally heavy rainfall and flooding.

A near equatorial ridge is steering Chedza eastward.  It is expected to make landfall in 12 to 18 hours.  The ridge is expected to steer Chedza toward the east-southeast as it crosses Madagascar.

At 9:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bansi was located at latitude 19.0°S and longitude 64.1°E which put it about 385 miles east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Bansi was moving toward the east-southeast at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. and it was estimated there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h..  The minimum surface pressure was estimated to be 937 mb.

Bansi was in an environment of low vertical wind shear and warm Sea Surface Temperatures for much of Thursday and intensified slightly.  The speed of the upper level winds is increasing and the cloud pattern is showing signs of more wind shear.  A subtropical high pressure system is likely to move Bansi toward the southeast at a faster speed.  Bansi is likely to continue to move toward higher latitudes which will move it over colder water.  The speed of the upper level winds will also increase and so Bansi should weaken during the next few days.

At 11:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bansi was located at latitude 17.6°S and longitude 60.3°E which put it about 270 miles northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Bansi was moving toward the east-southeast at 8 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind was 105 m.p.h. and it was estimated there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was estimated to be 954 mb.

An eyewall replacement cycle altered the structure of Tropical Cyclone Bansi.  It previously had a small eye which had a diameter of 10-15 miles.  The outer eyewall has not contracted significantly since the inner eye dissipated.  Thus, Bansi is now a tropical cyclone with a large circular eye with a diameter of about 60 miles.  The circulation around Bansi seems to have achieved a rough equilibrium  with its surrounding environment and the intensity did not change much on Wednesday.  Bansi remains over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and in an area of light upper level winds.  So, it is still possible that some intensification could occur in the short term.  When Bansi moves to a higher latitude it will encounter cooler water and more wind shear and start to weaken.

A subtropical ridge near Bansi is expected to start to exert a greater influence and start to accelerate it toward the southeast at a faster speed in about 24 hours.