Category Archives: South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone Kevin Forms West of Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Kevin formed over the Coral Sea west of Vanuatu on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin was located at latitude 14.8°S and longitude 163.2°E which put it about 430 miles (695 km) west-northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Kevin was moving toward the east-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea west of Vanuatu strengthened on Wednesday and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Kevin. The circulation Tropical Cyclone Kevin organized quickly. The inner end or a rainband wrapped around the northern and eastern sides of the center of Kevin’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Kevin.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Kevin will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Kevin will rapidly intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours. Kevin could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 36 hours.

An upper level trough east of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Kevin toward the east-southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin will pass west of Espiritu Santo and Malekula during the next 24 hours. Kevin will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Espiritu Santo and Malekula. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. The center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin could pass near Port Vila, Vanuatu within 36 hours. Kevin could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it passes near Port Vila. Tropical Cyclone Kevin could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Port Vila and Efate. Port Vila and Efate were just hit by Tropical Cyclone Judy. Tropical Cyclone Kevin will hinder efforts to recover from Tropical Cyclone Judy.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Judy moved quickly away from Vanuatu. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy was located at latitude 22.9°S and longitude 172.9°E which put it about 450 miles (650km) east of Noumea, New Caledonia. Judy was moving toward the southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Judy Brings Strong Winds, Heavy Rain to Port Vila

Tropical Cyclone Judy brought strong winds and heavy rain to Port Vila, Vanuatu on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy was located at latitude 18.7°S and longitude 168.9°E which put it about 40 miles (65 km) south-southeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Judy was moving toward the southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Judy brought strong winds and heavy rain to Port Vila, Vanuatu on Tuesday night when the core of Judy’s circulation passed just east of Efate. A weather station at Bauer Field airport near Port Vila reported a sustained wind speed of 57 m.p.h. (92 km/h) and a wind gust of 91 m.p.h. (146 km/h). A weather station also reported a pressure of 961 mb.

A small circular eye with a diameter of 8 miles (13 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Judy’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (230 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.2. Tropical Cyclone Judy was very similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Judy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough east of Australia. The trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Judy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the northwest and there will not be enough vertical wind shear to cause Tropical Cyclone Judy to weaken. Judy is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours. Tropical Cyclone Judy will move into a more unfavorable environment later on Wednesday. Judy will start to move over cooler water. The upper level trough east of Australia will move closer to Judy and the upper level winds will get stronger. Tropical Cyclone Judy will start to weaken when it moves over cooler water and the vertical wind shear increases.

The upper level trough east of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Judy toward the southeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Judy will move away from Efate on Wednesday. Tropical Cyclone Judy will continue to cause strong winds and heavy rain in Port Vila and Efate during the next few hours. The weather conditions on Efate will improve when Tropical Cyclone Judy moves farther away. Judy will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Erromango, Tanna and Aneityum during the next 12 to 24 hours. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Judy Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Judy intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon near Vanuatu on Tuesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 168.4°E which put it about 150 miles (245 km) north of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Judy was moving toward the south at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Judy intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon near Pentecost and Ambrym on Tuesday morning. The center of Judy’s circulation was about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Toak. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Judy’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Judy was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Judy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 19.1.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Judy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge near Vanuatu. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Judy will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will move around the southwestern end of a high pressure system during the next several days. The high pressure system will steer Judy toward the south during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Judy move near Port Vila in 12 hours. The center of Judy will pass near Epi, Efate, Erromango and Tanna.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will produce strong winds and locally heavy rain in Pentecost and Ambrym during the next few hours. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Judy will also cause a storm surge where the wind blows water toward the islands. Strong winds and heavy rain will reach Epi and Efate during the next 12 hours. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force could occur near Port Vila within 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Judy Strengthens near Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Judy strengthened near Vanuatu on Monday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy was located at latitude 14.4°S and longitude 168.4°E which put it about 40 miles (65 km) northeast of Naone, Vanuatu. Judy was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Judy strengthened over the Southwest Pacific Ocean near Maewo on Monday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Judy’s circulation. An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Judy’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Judy’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Judy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge near Vanuatu. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Judy will intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will move around the western end of a high pressure system during the next several days. The high pressure system will steer Judy toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Judy move over Maewo during the next few hours. The center of Judy will also pass near Pentecost, Ambrym, Epi, Efate, Erromango and Tanna. The center of Tropical Cyclone Judy could be near Port Vila in less than 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it moves across Vanuatu. Judy will produce strong winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Judy will also cause a storm surge where the wind blows water toward the islands.

Tropical Cyclone Judy Forms North of Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Judy formed over the Southwest Pacific Ocean north of Vanuatu on Sunday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy was located at latitude 12.8°S and longitude 170.7°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southeast of Fatutaka. Judy was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A low pressure system over the Southwest Pacific Ocean north of Vanuatu strengthened on Sunday night and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Judy. Thunderstorms developed near the center of Judy’s circulation. Those thunderstorms began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Other thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Judy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge east of Vanuatu. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Judy will intensify during the next 36 hours. Judy could rapidly intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will move around the western end of a high pressure system during the next several days. The high pressure system will steer Judy toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. Judy will move toward the south when it moves around the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Judy could be near Maewo in 24 hours. The center of Judy will pass near Pentecost, Ambrym, Epi, Efate, Erromango and Tanna. The center of Tropical Cyclone Judy could be near Port Vila in 42 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it moves over Vanuatu. Judy will produce strong winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Judy will also cause a storm surge where the wind blows water toward the islands.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Transitions to an Extratropical Cyclone

Former Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle made a transition to an extratropical cyclone northwest of New Zealand on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of former Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle was located at latitude 27.2°S and longitude 165.3°E which put it about 670 miles (1080 km) northwest of Auckland, New Zealand. Gabrielle was moving toward the southeast at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Former Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle made a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Friday. Gabrielle moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. An upper level trough east of Australia produced northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Gabrielle’s circulation. Those winds cause strong vertical wind shear. A combination of cooler water and strong vertical wind shear caused former Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle to make a transition to a strong extratropical cyclone. Strong thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of the extratropical cyclone. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The transition to an extratropical cyclone caused the size of the low pressure system to expand. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 330 miles (530 km) from the center of circulation.

The upper level trough east of Australia will steer the extratropical cyclone quickly toward the southeast. On its anticipated track, former Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle could affect northern New Zealand during the weekend. The extratropical cyclone will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern New Zealand. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Intensifies to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Coral Sea on Thursday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 155.6°E which put it about 565 miles (910 km) north-northeast of Brisbane, Australia. Gabrielle was moving toward the southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle intensified over the Coral Sea on Thursday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Gabrielle’s circulation. A small eye appeared to be forming at the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Gabrielle’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Gabrielle will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. An upper level trough near the east coast of Australia will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Gabrielle’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough near the east coast of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle toward the southeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Gabrielle will move between Australia and New Caledonia. Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to New Caledonia. Gabrielle will move over cooler water during the weekend and the vertical wind shear will increase. Cooler water and more wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone. Gabrielle could affect northern New Zealand as a strong extratropical cyclone in a few days.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Moves Away from Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved away from Western Australia on Wednesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 112.7°E which put it about 440 miles (710 km) north of Learmonth, Australia. Freddy was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy started to weaken as it moved away from Western Australia on Wednesday morning. Freddy was moving under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over Australia. The upper level ridge was producing easterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Freddy to become asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Freddy’s circulation. Bands in the eastern side of Freddy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that is unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge over Australia will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken during the next 24 hours. The wind shear could lessen when Freddy moves farther west on Friday. If the shear lessens, then Tropical Cyclone Freddy could start to intensify again.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle strengthened over the Coral Sea. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 152.8°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) east of Cairns, Australia. Gabrielle was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb. Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is forecast to move toward the southeast and to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Forms over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle formed over the Coral Sea on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle was located at latitude 15.7°S and longitude 153.3°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) east-northeast of Willis Island. Gabrielle was moving toward the south-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea strengthened on Tuesday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and eastern side of the center of Gabrielle’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Gabrielle will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle will intensify during the next 24 hours. Gabrielle could intensify rapidly at times and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Southwest Pacific Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Gabrielle toward the south. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle will remain east of Australia. An upper level trough over Australia will steer Gabrielle toward the southeast later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Irene Forms West of Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Irene formed over the South Pacific Ocean west of Vanuatu on Wednesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Irene was located at latitude 18.7°S and longitude 166.3°E which put it about 320 miles (520 km) west-southwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Irene was moving toward the east at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

An area of low pressure over the South Pacific Ocean strengthened rapidly on Wednesday morning and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Irene. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern side of Irene’s circulation. Other bands of thunderstorms were occurring in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Irene. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Irene.

Tropical Cyclone Irene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Irene will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near than 28˚C. An upper level trough east of Australia will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Irene’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Irene is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. It could intensify rapidly during the next 12 hours. Irene could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

The upper level trough east of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Irene quickly to the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. The center of Irene could pass near the southern islands of Vanuatu in 12 hours. The center of Tropical Cyclone Irene will be near Tanna and Aneityum in 12 hours. Irene could bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Vanuatu. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.