Monthly Archives: February 2022

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Moves Toward Madgascar

Tropical Cyclone Emnati moved toward Madagascar on Monday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 53.1°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) east of Toamasina, Madagascar. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was surrounded by concentric eyewalls on Monday morning. The original, inner eyewall surrounded an eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km). A larger, outer eyewall with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) surrounded the inner eye and eyewall. The inner eyewall was slowly weakening and the low level convergence was becoming more concentrated at the outer eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls. Storms around the large core of Emnati generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati increased after the concentric eyewalls formed. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Emnati was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 26.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.9. Emnanti was similar in intensity and size to Hurricane Rita when Rita hit southwest Louisiana in 2005.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though Tropical Cyclone Emnati will be in an environment favorable for intensification, the current eyewall replace cycle could cause Emnati to weaken while the inner eyewall dissipates. Tropical Cyclone Emanti could eventually strengthen again after the eyewall replacement cycle is completed.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti could reach the southeast coast of Madagascar in 36 hours. The center of Emnati could make landfall between Mananjary and Vangaindrano. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar. Emnati will be capable of causing widespread major damage to southern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will bring strong destructive winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Emanti will also cause a significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Madagascar on Sunday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 17.3°S and longitude 55.5°E which put it about 220 miles (355 km) north-northwest of St. Denis, La Reunion. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Madagascar on Sunday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was at the center of Emnati’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Microwave satellite images showed that the inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the existing eye and eyewall. Concentric eyewalls could be forming and an eyewall replacement cycle could be starting.

The potential start of an eyewall replacement cycle caused the size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati to increase. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Emnati’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Emnati was 22.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.8. Tropical Cyclone Emnati was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. The winds in the lower atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though Tropical Cyclone Emnati will be in an environment favorable for intensification, if an eyewall replace cycle occurs Emnati will weaken when the current eyewall dissipates. Tropical Cyclone Emanti could eventually strengthen again after the eyewall replacement cycle is completed.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will move away from La Reunion on Sunday. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could reach the east coast of Madagascar in 48 hours. Emnati could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will bring strong destructive winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Emanti will also cause a significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Passes North of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Emnati passed north of Mauritius on Saturday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 57.7°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati continued to have the intensity of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday. A small eye was evident on microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Emnati. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will intensify during the next 36 hours. Emanti could eventually strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next three days.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will move away from Mauritius on Saturday. Emnati will pass north of La Reunion on Sunday. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could reach the east coast of Madagascar in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon northeast of Mauritius on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 60.9°E which put it about 475 miles (765 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Southwest Indian Ocean northeast of Mauritius on Friday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) formed at the center of Emnati’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were blowing in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles from the center of Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will intensify during the next 36 hours. Emnati could intensify more rapidly now that an inner core with an eye and an eyewall have formed. Tropical Cyclone Emanti could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will pass north of Mauritius in 30 hours. Emnati could pass north of La Reunion in 60 hours. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could reach the east coast of Madagascar in four days.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Intensifies Northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Emnati intensified northeast of Mauritius on Thursday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 13.6°S and longitude 62.6°E which put it about 595 miles (960 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Emnati was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened on Thursday. Microwave satellite imagery indicated that a circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was forming at the center of Emnati’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms. The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the developing core of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Emnati.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours. Emnati could intensify more rapidly once the inner core with an eye and a complete eyewall forms.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will pass north of Mauritius in 36 hours. Emnati could pass north of La Reunion in 72 hours. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could reach Madagascar in less than five days.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Forms Northeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Emnati formed over the Southwest Indian Ocean northeast of Rodrigues on Wednesday. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 14.0°S and longitude 67.2°E which put it about 455 miles (735 km) northeast of Rodrigues. Emnati was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean northeast of Rodrigues strengthened on Wednesday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Emnati. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati appeared to be organizing quickly on Wednesday evening. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Emnati’s circulation and microwave satellite images suggested that a small eye could be forming at the center. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the tropical cyclone. Bands in the eastern half of Emnati consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will intensify during the next 48 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. Emnati could intensify more rapidly once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall forms.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Emnati toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will pass north of Rodrigues in 36 hours. Emnati could pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion during the weekend. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could hit Madagascar next week.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako Hits Northern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Dumako hit northern Madagascar on Tuesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dumako was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 49.9°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Ivongo, Madagascar. Dumako was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako hit the coast of northern Madagascar between Mananara and Ivongo on Tuesday morning. Dumako was the equivalent of a tropical storm when it hit Madagascar. The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dumako.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar during the next 24 hours. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations, especially in mountainous regions. Dumako will move west across northern Madagascar during the next 36 hours. Tropical Cyclone Dumako will weaken steadily as it moves over the mountains in Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako Moves Toward Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Dumako moved toward Madagascar on Monday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dumako was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 52.5°E which put it about 185 miles (295 km) east of Mananara, Madagascar. Dumako was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako moved toward northern Madagascar on Monday afternoon. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Dumako’s circulation during the afternoon after most of the previous thunderstorms had weakened on Monday morning. Tropical Cyclone Dumako weakened a little before the new thunderstorms developed. The new thunderstorms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Dumako was a small tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Dumako will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Dumako. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. There is drier air to the north and west of Tropical Cyclone Dumako. The drier air could inhibit the formation of more thunderstorms around Dumako’s circulation. However, there appears to be moister air near the center of center of circulation and Tropical Cyclone Dumako could strengthen a little during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Dumako will reach the coast of northern Madagascar near Mananara in 18 hours. Dumako is likely to be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it reaches northern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Dumako will bring gusty wins and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar on Tuesday. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Dumako is likely to weaken rapidly after the center moves over Madagascar because the circulation is so small.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako Passes North of La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Dumako passed north of La Reunion on Monday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dunako was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 54.6°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) north of St. Denis, La Reunion. Dumako was moving toward the west-southwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Small Tropical Cyclone Dumako passed north of Mauritius and La Reunion on Monday morning as it moved over the Southwest Indian Ocean. After Dumako intensified on Sunday, it appeared to be weakening on Monday morning. Drier air seemed to be causing thunderstorms to weaken. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band in the eastern side of Dumako’s circulation. Bands in other parts of Tropical Cyclone Dumako consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The thunderstorms in the eastern side of Dumako were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the enter of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Dumako will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Dumako. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. There is drier air to the north and west of Tropical Cyclone Dumako. The drier air could continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms around Dumako’s circulation. If drier air inhibits the formation of additional thunderstorms, then Tropical Cyclone Dumako is likely to weaken gradually during the next during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dumako will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Dumako 12S will reach the coast of northern Madagascar near Mananara in a little over 24 hours. Dumako is likely to be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it reaches northern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Dumako will bring gusty wins and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar on Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Forms North-Northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone 12S formed north-northeast of Mauritius on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone 12S was located at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 60.5°E which put it about 430 miles (695 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 12S formed over the Southwest Indian Ocean early on Sunday morning. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone 12S was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring southeast of the center of circulation. Bands in other parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone 12S was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the southeastern quadrant of the tropical cyclone. The winds in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone 12S were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone 12S will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone 12S will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak bear the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. There is drier air to the north of Tropical Cyclone 12S. Drier air could inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in the northern part of the tropical cyclone’s circulation. If drier air inhibits the formation of thunderstorms, then it could prevent intensification of Tropical Cyclone 12S. Since the circulation around Tropical Cyclone 12S is small, changes in the environment could have big effects on the circulation. Tropical Cyclone 12S could get a little stronger during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 12S will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 12S will pass north of Mauritius in 24 hours. The small size of the circulation means that the tropical cyclone should have little effect on Mauritius. Tropical Cyclone 12S could be north of La Reunion in 36 hours. The tropical cyclone could reach northern Madagascar in less than three days.