Monthly Archives: October 2023

Otis Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Otis rapidly intensified to a major hurricane on Tuesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Otis was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 99.5°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Otis was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Acapulco. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado, Mexico.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter airplane flying into former Tropical Storm Otis on Tuesday afternoon found that Otis had rapidly intensified to a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. A circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) had formed at the center of Hurricane Otis. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Otis. Storms near the core of Otis generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Otis. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.8. Hurricane Otis was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

Hurricane Otis will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Otis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. An upper level ridge over Gulf of Mexico will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Otis’ circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the southeast and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Otis is likely to continue to intensify during the next 12 hours.

Hurricane Otis will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Otis toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Otis will approach the coast of Mexico early on Wednesday.

Hurricane Otis is very likely to be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Mexico. Otis could make landfall near Acapulco. Hurricane Otis will bring strong gusty winds and heavy rain to Guerrero. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Otis could produce a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Hamoon Brings Wind and Rain to Bangladesh

Tropical Cyclone Hamoon brought wind and rain to Bangladesh on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hamoon was located at latitude 21.1°N and longitude 91.5°E which put it about 110 miles (170 km) southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh. Hamoon was moving toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Hamoon brought wind and rain to Bangladesh on Tuesday. An upper level trough over India was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Hamoon’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The strong vertical wind shear was tilting the upper part of Tropical Cyclone Hamoon to the northeast of the lower part of Hamoon’s circulation. The upper part of Hamoon’s circulation was over southern Bangladesh on Tuesday. Rain was falling on southern Bangladesh.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Hamoon. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hamoon was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 22.7. Tropical Cyclone Hamoon was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dolly when Dolly hit south Texas in 2008.

The upper level trough over India will steer Tropical Cyclone Hamoon toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Hamoon will cross the coast of Bangladesh near Chittagong in a few hours. Hamoon will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rain in southern and eastern Bangladesh. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Hamoon could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast of Bangladesh. Hamoon will also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of eastern India.

Tropical Storm Otis Prompts Hurricane Warning for Mexico

The risk posed by Tropical Storm Otis prompted the government of Mexico to issue a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the coast on Tuesday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Otis was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 98.6°W which put it about 175 miles (280 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Otis was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Acapulco. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Otis strengthened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Tuesday morning. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Otis’ circulation and the circulation became more symmetrical. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Otis. Storms near the center of circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm in all directions. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Otis’ circulation.

Tropical Storm Otis will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Otis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. An upper level ridge over Gulf of Mexico will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Otis’ circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the southeast and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Otis is likely to intensify to a hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Otis will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure will steer Otis toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Otis will approach the coast of Mexico early on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Otis is likely to be a hurricane when it approaches the coast of Mexico. Otis will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Guerrero. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Otis could produce a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Hamoon Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Hamoon rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the northern Bay of Bengal on Monday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hamoon was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 89.5°E which put it about 230 miles (390 km) southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh. Hamoon was moving toward the northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hamoon rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the northern Bay of Bengal on Monday evening. A small circular eye formed at the center of Hamoon’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Hamoon. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hamoon was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hamoon’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Hamoon was 11.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 22.3. Tropical Cyclone Hamoon was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Isaias when Isaias hit North Carolina in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Hamoon will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Hamoon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over India. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hamoon’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent additional intensification. Tropical Cyclone Hamoon could intensify during the next 12 hours. The upper level southwesterly winds will get stronger later on Tuesday. The stronger upper level winds will increase the vertical wind shear. Hamoon could start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

The upper level trough over India will steer Tropical Cyclone Hamoon toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Hamoon will move approach the coast of Bangladesh in 24 hours. Hamoon will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Bangladesh. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Hamoon could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast of Bangladesh.

Tropical Cyclone Tej Makes Landfall in Eastern Yemen

Tropical Cyclone Tej made landfall in eastern Yemen on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tej was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 52.0°E which put it about 25 miles (400 km) southwest of Nishtun, Yemen. Tej was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tej made landfall on the coast of eastern Yemen between Nishtun and Qishn on Monday afternoon. Tej weakened as it approached the coast of Yemen. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Tej’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tej was 11.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 23.0. Tropical Cyclone Tej was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dolly when Dolly hit south Texas in 2008.

Tropical Cyclone Tej was capable of causing regional minor damage. Tej will produce strong winds and locally heavy rain over eastern Yemen and far western Oman. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Tej will weaken steadily when it moves into the dry environment over eastern Yemen.

Tropical Depression Forms Near Nicaragua

Tropical Depression Twentyone formed over the southwest Caribbean Sea near Nicaragua on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Twentyone was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 83.5°W which put it about 35 miles (55 km) southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua. The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A low pressure system over the southwest Caribbean Sea near Nicaragua strengthened on Monday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Twentyone. More thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical depression on Monday afternoon. Several short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Twentyone will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Twentyone will move inland over southeast Nicaragua in a few hours. The tropical depression could drop heavy rain over parts of Nicaragua. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Tammy moved farther north of the Leeward Islands. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Tammy was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 63.8°W which put it about 695 miles (1115 km) south of Bermuda. Tammy was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hamoon Forms over Northern Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Hamoon formed over the northern Bay of Bengal on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hamoon was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 87.6°E which put it about 390 miles (630 km) southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh. Hamoon was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the northern Bay of Bengal intensified on Monday morning and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Hamoon. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hamoon’s circulation. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Hamoon. Bands in the southern half of Hamoon’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical cyclone.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Hamoon. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the southern part of Hamoon’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Hamoon will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Hamoon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over India. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hamoon’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent some intensification. Tropical Cyclone Hamoon could intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough over India will steer Tropical Cyclone Hamoon toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Hamoon will move toward Bangladesh. Hamoon will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Bangladesh later this week. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Lola Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Lola rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Pacific Ocean northeast of Vanuatu on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lola was located at latitude 13.7°S and longitude 169.6°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) east of Sola, Vanuatu. Lola was moving toward the south-southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Lola rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Lola’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Lola. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that large quantities of pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Lola. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Lola was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensiy Size Index (HWISI) was 35.7. Tropical Cyclone Lola was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Tropical Cyclone Lola will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Lola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Lola could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours. An upper level trough over the Coral Sea will approach Lola from the west later today. The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Lola’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Tropical Cyclone Lola could start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Lola will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system centered northeast of New Zealand. The high pressure system will steer Lola toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Lola will approach Vanuatu during the next 24hours. Lola will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Espiritu Santo, Maewo, Ambae, Pentecost, Ambrym and Malekula. Tropical Cyclone Lola will be capable of causing regional major damage. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Lola could cause a storm surge of up to ten feet (three meters) in some places.

Otis Prompts Tropical Storm Watch for Mexico

A risk posed by Tropical Storm Otis prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of Mexico on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Otis was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 97.5°W which put it about 375 miles (605 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Otis was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico.

Tropical Storm strengthened gradually over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Monday morning. Even though Otis was strengthening, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Otis’ circulation. Bands in the eastern part of Tropical Storm Otis consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level ridge over Mexico was producing easterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Otis’ circulation. Those winds were causing vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Otis.

Tropical Storm Otis will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Otis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level ridge over Mexico will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Otis could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Otis will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure will steer Otis toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Otis will move closer to southern Mexico.

Elsewhere, former Hurricane Norma weakened to a tropical depression over Mexico. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Norma was located at latitude 24.9°N and longitude 107.7°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) west-northwest of Culiacan, Mexico. Norma was moving toward the east-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Lola Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Lola rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Pacific Ocean northeast of Vanuatu on Sunday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lola was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 169.3°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) east-northeast of Sola, Vanuatu. Lola was moving toward the south-southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Lola rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Sunday evening. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) formed at the center of Lola’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Lola. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Lola’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Lola will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Lola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Lola will intensify during the next 24 hours. Lola could intensify rapidly to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Lola will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system centered northeast of New Zealand. The high pressure system will steer Lola toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Lola will move just to the east of northern Vanuatu. Lola will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Vanua Lava, Mota Lava, Mota, Ureparapara and Gaua. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Lola could cause a storm surge of seven feet (two meters) in some places. Lola could be near Espiritu Santo in 36 hours.