Monthly Archives: September 2024

Tropical Storm Ileana Forms South of Baja California

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Tropical Storm Ileana formed south of Baja California on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 108.0°W which put the center about 240 miles (385 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Ileana was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to San Evaristo, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cabo San Lucas and La Paz.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Topolobampo to Huatabampito, Mexico.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California strengthened on Thursday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Ileana.  More thunderstorms were developing near the center of Ileana’s circulation.  However, the distribution of theunderstorms in Tropical Storm Ileana was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Ileana’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Ileana consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Ileana was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Ileana’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Ileana were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ileana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ileana’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Ileana is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Ileana toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ileana will reach the southern end of Baja California on Friday morning.

Tropical Storm Ileana will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern part of Baja California.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Francine Brings Wind and Rain to Southeast Louisiana

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Hurricane Francine brought wind and rain to southeast Louisiana on Wednesday evening.  Francine weakened to a tropical storm after it moved inland.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located at latitude 30.2°N and longitude 90.6°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) west-northwest of New Orleans, Louisiana.  Francine was moving toward the northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

Francine was a Category 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.  The maximum sustained wind speed at that time was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  At the time of landfall winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Francine’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) at landfall was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.2.  Hurricane Francine was similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Francine was larger than Idalia was.

The center of Hurricane Francine made landfall on the coast of Louisiana south-southwest of Morgan City.  The center passed near a NOAA National Ocean Service Station north of Eugene Island, Louisiana (EINL1).  The station reported a sustained wind speed of 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and a wind gust of 105 m.p.h. (169 km/h).  The station reported a surface pressure of 976.0 mb.

The center of former Hurricane Francine passed west of New Orleans.  Francine dropped heavy rain over many parts of southeast Louisiana.  Flash Flood Warnings were issued for several parishes.  A weather station at the Louis Armstrong International Airport received 6.98 inches (177.3 mm) of rain.  A weather station at New Orleans Lakefront Airport reported 4.58 inches (116.3 mm) or rain.  Heavy rain was beginning to fall over parts of southern Mississippi.

Southerly winds were still pushing water toward the coast of southeast Louisiana and the coast of Mississippi.  Those winds were causing a storm surge along the coast.

A Storm Surge Warning in in effect for the portion of the coast from Avery Island, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

Tropical Storm Francine will move between a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level trough over the South Central U.S.  The high pressure system and the upper level trough will steer Francine toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Francine will move across Mississippi on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Francine will continue to weaken as it moves farther inland.  Even though Francine will weaken it will bring strong winds and heavy rain to southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, South Alabama and Northwest Florida.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Northwest Florida.

 

Hurricane Francine Strengthens to Cat. 2

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Hurricane Francine strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday afternoon as it neared southeast Louisiana.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Francine was located at latitude 29.2°N and longitude 91.5°W which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) south-southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana.  Francine was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line to Grand Isle, Louisiana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cameron to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

Data from reconnaissance aircraft in Hurricane Francine on Wednesday afternoon indicated that Francine had strengthened to a Category 2 Hurricane.  A large circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was at the center of Francine’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and eastern sides of Francine’s circulation.  Bands in the southern and western sides of Hurricane Francine consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The center of Hurricane Francine appeared to wobble slightly to the east as it approached the coast of Louisiana.  The northern part of the eyewall  of Hurricane Francine was moving over the coast of southeast Louisiana south of Morgan City.  A NOAA National Ocean Service station north of Eugene Island, Louisiana (EINL1) reported a sustained wind speed of 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and a wind gust of 99 m.p.h. ((160 km/h).  The station reported a surface pressure of 981.4 mb.

The strongest winds were occurring southeast of the center of Hurricane Francine.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Francine’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Hurricane Francine.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.2.  Hurricane Francine was similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Francine was larger than Idalia was.

Hurricane Francine will move between a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level trough over the South Central U.S,  The high pressure system and the upper level trough will steer Francine toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Francine will make landfall on the southeast coast of Louisiana late during the next several hours.  Francine will move across southeast Louisiana on Wednesday night.

Hurricane Francine will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Louisiana.  Heavy rain was already falling on many places in southeast Louisiana.  Francine will be capable of causing serious damage.  Widespread outages of electricity are likely.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods.  The heaviest rain will fall as the center of Francine’s circulation approaches a given location.   Hurricane Francine will also drop heavy rain over parts of Mississippi, South Alabama and Northwest Florida as it moves inland.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Northwest Florida.

Hurricane Francine could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast of Louisiana.  The highest surge will occur just to the east of where the center of Francine makes landfall in southeast Louisiana.  The storm surge will continue after the center of Hurricane Francine makes landfall because southerly winds will continue to push water toward the coast.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cameron/Vermilion Parish Line, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

 

Hurricane Francine Nears Louisiana

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Hurricane Francine neared the coast of Louisiana on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Francine was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 92.7°W which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana.  Francine was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Vermilion/Cameron Line to Grand Isle, Louisiana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sabine Pass to the Vermilion/Cameron Line, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

Hurricane Francine maintained its intensity as it moved closer to the coast of Louisiana on Wednesday morning.  An upper level trough over the South Central U.S. was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Francine’s circulation.  Those winds were causing the vertical wind shear to increase.  In addition, the circulation around the western side of Hurricane Francine was pulling drier air into the southern part of Francine’s circulation.  Francine maintained its intensity even with the effects of the increased wind shear and drier air.

The effect of the vertical wind shear and the drier air also affected the structure of Hurricane Francine.  A large circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was at the center of Francine’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The break in the ring of thunderstorms was south of the eye of Hurricane Francine.  Storms near the center of Francine generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels almost balanced the inflow of mass in the lower levels and the surface pressure remained nearly steady.

The wind shear and drier air also affect the distribution of thunderstorms in Hurricane Francine.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and eastern sides of Francine’s circulation.  Bands in the southern and western sides of Hurricane Francine consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Francine remained steady.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Francine’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Francine.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Francine was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.4.  Hurricane Francine was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Hanna when Hanna hit South Texas in 2020.

Hurricane Francine will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Francine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  However, the upper level trough over the South Central U.S. will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The drier air in the southern half of Francine’s circulation will also inhibit intensification.  Hurricane Francine is likely to maintain its current intensity during the next few hours until it reaches Louisiana.

Hurricane Francine will move between a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico and the upper level trough over the South Central U.S,  The high pressure system and the upper level trough will steer Francine toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Francine will make landfall on the southeast coast of Louisiana late on Wednesday afternoon.

Hurricane Francine will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Louisiana. Francine will be capable of causing serious damage. Widespread outages of electricity are likely. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  The heaviest rain will fall as the center of Francine’s circulation approaches a given location.  Hurricane Francine will also drop heavy rain over parts of Mississippi, South Alabama and Northwest Florida as it moves inland.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, South Alabama and Northwest Florida.

Hurricane Francine could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast of Louisiana.  The highest surge will occur just to the east of where the center of Francine makes landfall in southeast Louisiana.  The storm surge will continue after the center of Hurricane Francine makes landfall because southerly winds will continue to push water toward the coast.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

 

Francine Strengthens to a Hurricane Southwest of Louisiana

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Former Tropical Storm Francine strengthened to a hurricane southwest of Louisiana on Tuesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Francine was located at latitude 26.4°N and longitude 94.3°W which put the center about 295 miles (475 km) southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana.  Francine was moving toward the northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Vermilion/Cameron Line to Grand Isle, Louisiana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sabine Pass to the Vermilion/Cameron Line, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

Reconnaissance aircraft from the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA found that former Tropical Storm Francine had intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday evening.  An eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) was at the center of Hurricane Francine.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Francine’s circulation.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease more rapidly.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Hurricane Francine.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the eastern side of Francine’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Francine.

Hurricane Francine will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Francine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Francine will intensify during the next 18 hours.  Francine could intensify rapidly at times now that there is an inner core.

Hurricane Francine will move between a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level trough over the South Central U.S,  The high pressure system and the upper level trough will steer Francine toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Francine will make landfall on the southeast coast of Louisiana late on Wednesday afternoon.

Hurricane Francine will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Louisiana.   Francine will be capable of causing serious damage.   Widespread outages of electricity are likely.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Hurricane Francine will also drop heavy rain over parts of Mississippi, South Alabama and Northwest Florida as it moves inland.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, South Alabama and Northwest Florida.

Hurricane Francine could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast of Louisiana.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.  The Storm Surge Watch includes Mobile Bay.

 

Tropical Storm Bebinca Forms Near Guam

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Tropical Storm Bebinca formed near Guam on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Bebinca located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 144.0°E which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) southwest of Guam.  Bebinca was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the coastal waters of Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

A low pressure system near Guam strengthened on Tuesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Bebinca.  Bebinca brought wind and rain to the Marianas.  A weather station at Guam International Airport (PGUM) reported a sustained wind speed of 28 m.p.h. (45 km/h) and a wind gust of 45 m.p.h. (73 km/h).

The circulation around Tropical Storm Bebinca was exhibiting more organization on Tuesday afternoon.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Bebinca’s circulation.  Thunderstorms also formed in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Bebinca.  Bands in the western side of Bebinca’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bebinca generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the pressure to decrease.

The distribution of winds speeds in Tropical Storm Bebinca was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Bebinca’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the other parts of Tropical Storm Bebinca.

Tropical Storm Bebinca will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bebinca will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.   It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Bebinca’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Bebinca will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Bebinca is likely to strengthen to a typhoon later this week.

Tropical Storm Bebinca will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bebinca toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bebinca will move west of the Marianas.  Bebinca could approach the Ryukyu Islands by the end of the week.

Tropical Storm Francine Churns over Western Gulf of Mexico

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Tropical Storm Francine was churning over the western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Francine located at latitude 24.5°N and longitude 94.9°W which put the center about 395 miles (640 km) south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana.  Francine was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sabine Pass to Grand Isle. Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes New Orleans.  The Tropical Storm Warning also includes Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from High Island, Texas to Sabine Pass, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Mansfield, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from La Pesca, Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from High Island to Port Mansfield, Texas.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Barra del Tordo to La Pesca, Mexico.

Rainbands in the western side of Tropical Storm Francine were dropping heavy rain on parts of south Texas.  A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for the area around Brownsville, Texas.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Francine showed signs of developing an inner core on Tuesday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of Francines’s circulation.  An eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Storm Francine.  The eye was surrounded by a nearly complete ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northeastern part of Francine’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Francine.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Storm Francine contracted a little as it began to resemble a typical tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Francine’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Francine will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Francine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Francine will intensify to a hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Francine could intensify rapidly after the inner core is fully formed.

Tropical Storm Francine will move around the western part of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Francine toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Francine will move toward Louisiana.  Francine will move faster toward the northeast on Wednesday when an upper level trough over the south central U.S. also begins to steer it toward the coast.  Tropical Storm Francine will approach the coast of Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon.  Francine will be a hurricane when it approaches the coast of Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Francine will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Louisiana.  Francine will be capable of causing serious damage.  Widespread outages of electricity are likely.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Francine could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast of Louisiana.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from High Island, Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Vermilion Bay.

 

 

Tropical Storm Francine Prompts Hurricane Watch for Louisiana

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The risk posed by Tropical Storm Francine prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the coast of Louisiana on Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Francine located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 94.9°W which put the center about 480 miles (770 km) south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana.  Francine was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cameron to Grand Isle, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border.  The Tropical Storm Watch includes New Orleans.  The Tropical Storm Watch also includes Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from High Island, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Mansfield, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Barra del Tordo, Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane investigated a low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Six on Monday morning.  The crew of the aircraft found that the circulation around the low pressure system was more organized.  Based on the data from the aircraft, the U.S. National Hurricane Center determined that former Potential Tropical Cyclone Six had developed the characteristics of a tropical storm.  The National Hurricane Center designated former Potential Tropical Cyclone Six as Tropical Storm Francine.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed at the center of Tropical Storm Francine.  Thunderstorms had formed near the center of Francine’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Francine.  Storms near the center of Francine generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Francine was more symmetrical on Monday morning.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Francine’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Francine will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Francine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Francine is likely to intensify gradually during the next few hours while an inner core develops.  Francine could intensify rapidly on Tuesday after an inner core forms.  Tropical Storm Francine is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Francine will move around the western part of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Francine toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Francine will move toward Louisiana.  Francine will move more toward the northeast on Wednesday when an upper level trough over the south central U.S. begins to steer it toward the coast.  Tropical Storm Francine will approach the coast of Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon.  Francine is likely to be a hurricane when it approaches the coast of Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Francine will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Louisiana.  Francine will be capable of causing serious damage.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Francine could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast of Louisiana.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from High Island, Texas to the Mouth of the Pearl River.  The Storm Surge Watch includes, Vermillion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

 

Low Pressure System over Gulf of Mexico Designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Six

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A low pressure system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Six by the U.S. National Hurricane Center on Sunday afternoon.  A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the coast of northern Mexico.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six located at latitude 21.6°N and longitude 94.6°W which put the center about 340 miles (545 km) south-southeast of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.  The low pressure system was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Barra del Tordo,, Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft investigated a low pressure system over the southwest Gulf of Mexico that was previously designated as Invest 91L on Sunday afternoon.  The Hurricane Hunters found that there was a large low pressure system with a broad counterclockwise rotation.  The reconnaissance flight was unable to find a distinct low level center of circulation.  The flight crew did find a large area of tropical storm force winds in the western side of the low pressure system.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) in the western side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six.  The winds in the eastern side of the low pressure system were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The strongest winds in Potential Tropical Cyclone Six were occurring in bands of thunderstorms in the southwestern part of the low pressure system.  The bands in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The storms in the southwestern part of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the low pressure system.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six will move through an environment mostly favorable for the intensification during the next 24 hours.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move over the eastern part of an upper level ridge over northern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  The large size of the circulation around the low pressure system will also reduce the rate of intensification.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is likely to intensify slowly during the next 24 hours.  The low pressure system could intensify more rapidly after an inner core forms.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Six will move toward northern Mexico.  The low pressure system will move more toward the north on Tuesday when it moves around the western end of the high pressure system.  It is likely to be southeast of Texas on Tuesday night.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Six could approach the coast of Louisiana on Wednesday.  It could be a hurricane when it approaches the coast of Louisiana.

Low Pressure System Forms over Bay of Campeche

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A low pressure system formed over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday.  The low pressure system was designated as Invest 91L.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of the low pressure system was located at latitude 18.8°N and longitude 92.7°W which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) west of Campeche, Mexico.  The low pressure system was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A low pressure system formed in the northern end of a tropical wave over the eastern Bay of Campeche on Saturday.  There was a well developed low level center of circulation that was visible on satellite images.  However, there were few thunderstorms near the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms were starting to form in bands in the eastern side of the low pressure system.  Bands in the rest of the low pressure system consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The low pressure system designated as Invest 91L will move into an environment mostly favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C.  It will move over the eastern part of an upper level ridge over northern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Invest 91L’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit the formation of a tropical cyclone, but the shear will not be enough to prevent the formation of a tropical depression or a tropical storm.

There is a second low pressure system embedded in a nearly stationary front over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  The second low pressure system could drift toward the southwest during the next day or two.  It is possible that the circulation around the second low pressure system and the circulation around Invest 91L could merge early next week.

The low pressure system designated as Invest 91L will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extended from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Invest 91L toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the low pressure system designated as Invest 91L will move toward the western Bay of Campeche.

If the second low pressure system over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico interacts with Invest 91L, then the low pressure system designated as Invest 91L could get pulled toward the north during the first half of next week.  If Invest 91L get pulled toward the north, then it would spend more time over water and it would have more time to strengthen.  The low pressure system designated as Invest 91L could affect the coast of Texas and Louisiana in a few days.