Tag Archives: HWISI

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 119.4°E which put it about 200 miles (325 km) west-northwest of Broome, Australia. Ilsa was moving toward the south-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Bidyadanga to Port Hedland. Tropical Cyclone Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Broome to Bidyadanga and from Port Hedland to Whim Creek.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Wednesday morning. A small circular eye was present at the center of Ilsa’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large quantities of mass was causing the surface pressure to continue to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ilsa increased, when Ilsa strengthened. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Ilsa’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.1. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ilsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from northern Australia to the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. Ilsa could intensify rapidly at times.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move around the western end of a high pressure system over western Australia. The high pressure system will steer Ilsa toward the south during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move toward the southeast when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system on Thursday morning. On its anticipated track, Ilsa is likely to make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Broome and Port Hedland in 30 hours. The center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa could make landfall near Wallal Downs. Ilsa is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will bring very strong winds and locally heavy rain to Western Australia near Wallal Downs. The strong winds will be capable of causing severe damage. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches are in effect for the West Kimberley, De Grey River, Sandy Desert, Western Desert, Warburton and Salt Lake Districts. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 to 15 feet (3 to 4.5 meters) along the portion of the coast near where the center makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Herman Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Herman strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia during Thursday night. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herman was located at latitude 18.0°S and longitude 106.8°E which put it about 780 miles (1260 km) east-southeast of Cocos Islands. Herman was moving toward the southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Herman strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean during Thursday night. A small circular eye was present at the center of Herman’s circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Herman. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Herman was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Herman. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Herman was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.2. Tropical Cyclone Herman was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis made landfall in northwest Florida in 2005.

Tropical Cyclone Herman will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Herman will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, an upper level trough will approach Tropical Cyclone Herman from the west. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will get stronger during the next 24 hours. Those stronger winds will blow toward the top of Herman’s circulation and the vertical wind shear will increase. More vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Herman to weaken. Since Herman’s circulation is small, the tropical cyclone could weaken rapidly when the wind shear increases.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Herman toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Herman will move farther away from Cocos Islands. When the stronger vertical wind shear causes Herman to weaken, it will be steered by the winds closer to the surface. Those winds will steer Tropical Cyclone Herman toward the west during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Herman Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Herman rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Thursday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herman was located at latitude 16.5°S and longitude 106.0°E which put it about 665 miles (1070 km) east-southeast of Cocos Islands. Herman was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Herman rapidly intensified to nearly the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean on Thursday. A small circular eye was present at the center of Herman’s circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Herman. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Herman was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Herman. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Herman was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.6. Tropical Cyclone Herman was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta made landfall in Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Herman will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Herman will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, an upper level trough will approach Tropical Cyclone Herman from the west. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will get stronger during the next 24 hours. Those stronger winds will blow toward the top of Herman’s circulation and the vertical wind shear will increase. More vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Herman to weaken.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Herman toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Herman will move farther away from Cocos Islands. When the stronger vertical wind shear causes Herman to weaken, it will be steered by the winds closer to the surface. Those winds will steer Tropical Cyclone Herman toward the west during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Hits Mozambique Again

Tropical Cyclone Freddy hit Mozambique again on Saturday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 17.9°S and longitude 37.2°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) east of Quelimane, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy intensified before it hit the coast of Mozambique east of Quelimane on Saturday. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of Freddy’s circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy increased in size as Freddy intensified. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Freddy was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.7. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was capable of causing regional serious damage.

The steering currents weakened as Tropical Cyclone Freddy approached the coast of central Mozambique. Freddy is forecast to meander near the coast of Mozambique during the next 48 hours. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will begin to weaken when the center of circulation moves completely over land. However, Freddy will cause a prolonged period of strong winds and heavy rain near Quelimane. Heavy rain will cause floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast. Widespread electricity outages are likely in the area near Quelimane. There is a chance Freddy could move back over the Mozambique Channel next week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Moves Toward Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved toward Mozambique on Wednesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 20.8°S and longitude 40.0°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) southeast of Quelimane, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved toward the coast of central Mozambique on Wednesday morning. Freddy appeared to be moving into a region of drier air. The ring of thunderstorms around the eye was broken and bands in the western half of Freddy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Most thunderstorms were occurring in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the center of Freddy’s circulation continued to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Freddy was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.5. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that will be marginal for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, the drier air in the western half of Freddy’s circulation will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is likely to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours while it moves through the drier air. Freddy could strengthen again on Thursday if it moves into a more humid environment.

A high pressure system south of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Freddy toward the northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will approach the coast of Mozambique near Quelimane in 42 hours. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is likely to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of central Mozambique. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Freddy could also produce a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along portions of the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel west of Madagascar on Tuesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 42.0°E which put it about 110 miles (185 km) west-northwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Freddy was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon west of Madagascar on Tuesday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) formed at the center of Freddy’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Freddy. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy became more symmetrical when Freddy intensified rapidly. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Freddy was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.3.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Freddy will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 36 hours. Freddy is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 36 hours.

A high pressure system south of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Freddy toward the northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will gradually move farther away from Madagascar. Freddy will approach the coast of Mozambique near Pebane by the end of the week. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Kevin brought wind and rain to southern Vanuatu on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin was located at latitude 19.0°S and longitude 169.2°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) south-southeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Kevin was moving toward the southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Vanuatu on Friday morning. Kevin was affecting the same area that was hit by Tropical Cyclone Judy earlier this week. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Kevin’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (300 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Kevin was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.1. Tropical Cyclone Kevin was similar in size and intensity to Tropical Cyclone Judy.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin strengthened as it moved over southern Vanuatu on Friday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Kevin’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Kevin. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Kevin will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Kevin will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level trough east of Australia will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kevin’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification during the rest of today. Tropical Cyclone Kevin is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. Kevin could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane. The vertical wind shear will increase and Kevin will move over cooler water during the weekend. Tropical Cyclone Kevin will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

The upper level trough east of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Kevin toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Kevin will move away from Port Vila and Efate during the next few hours. Kevin will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Port Vila and Efate until it moves farther away. Port Vila and Efate were just hit by Tropical Cyclone Judy. Tropical Cyclone Kevin will hinder efforts to recover from Tropical Cyclone Judy. Tropical Cyclone Kevin will also bring wind and rain to Erromango, Tanna and Aneityum during the next 24 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Judy was making a transition to an extratropical cyclone southwest of Tonga. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy was located at latitude 26.5°S and longitude 178.7°W which put it about 460 miles (740 km) southwest of Tonga. Judy was moving toward the east-southeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Judy Brings Strong Winds, Heavy Rain to Port Vila

Tropical Cyclone Judy brought strong winds and heavy rain to Port Vila, Vanuatu on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy was located at latitude 18.7°S and longitude 168.9°E which put it about 40 miles (65 km) south-southeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Judy was moving toward the southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Judy brought strong winds and heavy rain to Port Vila, Vanuatu on Tuesday night when the core of Judy’s circulation passed just east of Efate. A weather station at Bauer Field airport near Port Vila reported a sustained wind speed of 57 m.p.h. (92 km/h) and a wind gust of 91 m.p.h. (146 km/h). A weather station also reported a pressure of 961 mb.

A small circular eye with a diameter of 8 miles (13 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Judy’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (230 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.2. Tropical Cyclone Judy was very similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Judy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough east of Australia. The trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Judy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the northwest and there will not be enough vertical wind shear to cause Tropical Cyclone Judy to weaken. Judy is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours. Tropical Cyclone Judy will move into a more unfavorable environment later on Wednesday. Judy will start to move over cooler water. The upper level trough east of Australia will move closer to Judy and the upper level winds will get stronger. Tropical Cyclone Judy will start to weaken when it moves over cooler water and the vertical wind shear increases.

The upper level trough east of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Judy toward the southeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Judy will move away from Efate on Wednesday. Tropical Cyclone Judy will continue to cause strong winds and heavy rain in Port Vila and Efate during the next few hours. The weather conditions on Efate will improve when Tropical Cyclone Judy moves farther away. Judy will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Erromango, Tanna and Aneityum during the next 12 to 24 hours. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Judy Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Judy intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon near Vanuatu on Tuesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 168.4°E which put it about 150 miles (245 km) north of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Judy was moving toward the south at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Judy intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon near Pentecost and Ambrym on Tuesday morning. The center of Judy’s circulation was about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Toak. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Judy’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Judy was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Judy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 19.1.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Judy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge near Vanuatu. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Judy will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will move around the southwestern end of a high pressure system during the next several days. The high pressure system will steer Judy toward the south during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Judy move near Port Vila in 12 hours. The center of Judy will pass near Epi, Efate, Erromango and Tanna.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will produce strong winds and locally heavy rain in Pentecost and Ambrym during the next few hours. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Judy will also cause a storm surge where the wind blows water toward the islands. Strong winds and heavy rain will reach Epi and Efate during the next 12 hours. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force could occur near Port Vila within 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Hits Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Freddy hit the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 20.9°S and longitude 48.8°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Mananjary, Madagascar. Freddy was moving toward the west-southwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy hit the east coast of Madagascar between Nosy Varika and Mananjary on Tuesday. A small eye with a diameter of 7 miles (11 km) was at the center of Freddy’s circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.5. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally, when Sally hit the south coast of Alabama in 2020. Freddy was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move west-southwest across Madagascar during the next 24 hours. The center of Freddy will pass near Fianarantsoa in a few hours. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will bring strong gusty winds to central and southern Madagascar. Freddy will be capable of causing major wind damage. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will also drop locally heavy rain. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will weaken steadily as it moves across Madagascar. The center of Freddy’s circulation will move over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could strengthen again when it moves over the Mozambique Channel. Freddy could approach the coast of southern Mozambique later this week.