Tag Archives: AL03

Tropical Storm Colin Forms on South Carolina Coast

Tropical Storm Colin formed on the coast of South Carolina on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located at latitude 33.6°N and longitude 79.3°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west-southwest of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Colin was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Duck, North Carolina.

A small low pressure system dropped heavy rain over the area around Charleston, South Carolina on Friday. An area of winds to tropical storm force was detected off the coast of South Carolina on Saturday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Colin. The strongest winds were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Colin, which was over the Atlantic Ocean. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the eastern side of Colin’s circulation. The winds over land were weaker. The heaviest rain was also falling in the bands over the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Storm Colin will move through an environment that is unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Although the Sea Surface Temperatures off the coast of North Carolina are near 27˚C, the center of Colin’s circulation is likely to move along the coast. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Proximity to land and vertical wind shear are likely to prevent Tropical Storm Colin from strengthening during the next 36 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Colin toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Colin will move along the coast of North Carolina. Colin could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Bonnie was moving along the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 85.8°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) southeast of Managua, Nicaragua. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb. Tropical Storm Bonnie will move over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean in a few hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the Caribbean coast from Limon, Costa Rica to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the Pacific coast from Cabo Blanco, Costa Rica to the border between Nicaragua and Honduras.

Claudette Strengthens Back to a Tropical Storm

Former Tropical Depression Claudette strengthened back to a tropical storm on Monday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located at latitude 36.4°N and longitude 76.3°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) west of Duck, North Carolina. Claudette was moving toward the east-northeast at 28 m.p.h. (45 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

When the center of former Tropical Depression Claudette moved close to the coast of North Carolina, the sustained wind speed in bands in the part of the circulation over the Atlantic Ocean increased to tropical force. The National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Claudette on Monday morning. The distribution of thunderstorms and the wind field around Tropical Storm Claudette was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Claudette. Bands in the western side of the circulation consisted mainly of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) on the eastern side of Claudette.

Tropical Storm Claudette will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Claudette will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. An upper level trough centered near the Great Lakes will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Claudette. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Claudette could get a little stronger on Monday. Claudette will move over cooler water when it moves north of the Gulf Stream and it will make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over the Great Lakes will steer Tropical Storm Claudette quickly toward the northeast. On its anticipated track Claudette will move rapidly away from the East Coast of the U.S. Tropical Storm Claudette could pass south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday.

Tropical Depression Claudette Prompts Warning for North Carolina

Even though the center of circulation was well inland over the southeastern U.S. on Sunday morning, Tropical Depression Claudette prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of North Carolina. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Claudette was located at latitude 33.7°N and longitude 84.8°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west of Atlanta, Georgia. Claudette was moving toward the east-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the coast of North Carolina from Little River Inlet to Duck including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Little River Inlet, North Carolina.

Although the center of Tropical Depression Claudette had been over land for a day, the circulation was still well organized. A well defined center of lower pressure was evident at the surface. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were visible on satellite and radar images. The strongest winds were occurring in the bands that were over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The winds were weaker over land. Rain was falling over the region from northern Florida to North Carolina. The heaviest rain was falling in a band over northern Florida and a Tornado Watch was in effect for part of that region.

Tropical Depression Claudette will move into an environment more favorable for intensification on Sunday. The center of Claudette will still be over land, but it will move east of the Appalachian Mountains. It will move between an upper level trough over the North Central U.S. and an upper level ridge southeast of the U.S. The trough and the ridge will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but they will also generate upper level divergence to the northeast of Tropical Depression Claudette. The upper level divergence could allow the surface pressure to decrease while Claudette is still over land. A decrease in pressure could generate enough additional force to increase the wind speeds along the coast of North Carolina and South Carolina, when the center Tropical Depression Claudette gets closer to the coast.

Tropical Depression Claudette will move north of a surface high pressure system centered southeast of the U.S. on Sunday. The high will steer Claudette toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Claudette will move across Georgia and South Carolina on Sunday. Claudette will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. Flash Flood Watches were in effect for northern Florida, northern Georgia, South Carolina, and eastern North Carolina. There could also be enough wind shear to generate tornadoes in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Depression Claudette.

Tropical Storm Claudette Brings Rain to Southeast U.S.

Tropical Storm Claudette brought wind and rain to the southeastern U.S. on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located at latitude 30.4°N and longitude 90.1°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) north of New Orleans, Louisiana. Tropical Storm Claudette was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. The Tropical Storm Warning included Biloxi, Mississippi, Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida.

A well defined low level center of circulation formed in the system formerly called Potential Tropical Cyclone Three on Saturday morning and the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Storm Claudette. The strongest winds and heaviest rain were falling in bands north and east of the center of Claudette. Drier air was wrapping around the western and southern parts of Tropical Storm Claudette, Bands in those parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The stronger winds were occurring in the portion of the circulation that was still over the Gulf of Mexico. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) on the eastern side of Claudette. Winds on the western side of Claudette were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Claudette will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system southeast of the U.S. The high pressure system will steer it toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Claudette will move across southeastern Mississippi on Saturday and it could reach Alabama by Saturday night. Claudette will move across Georgia on Sunday and it could be over South Carolina by Sunday evening. Tropical Storm Claudette will drop locally heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. Heavy rain could cause flash floods. Flash Flood Watches were in effect for parts of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northwestern Florida, and western Georgia. There may also be enough low level wind shear to produce tornadoes in the rainbands in the eastern side of the circulation.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Reaches Tropical Storm Force

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three reached tropical storm force south of Louisiana on Friday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (03L) was located at latitude 27.3°N and longitude 91.1°W which put it about 165 miles (265 km) south of Morgan City, Louisiana. Potential Tropical Cyclone Three was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. The Tropical Storm Warning included Biloxi, Mississippi, Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Three strengthened on Friday afternoon. A C-MAN station (BURL1) at Southwest Pass, Louisiana with an anemometer at a height of 38 meters reported a sustained wind speed of 44 m.p.h. (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 m.p.h. (82 km/h). The sustained wind speed was equivalent to a speed of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) at a standard observation height of 10 meters.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Three continued to consist of a broad low pressure system at the surface. The strongest winds were occurring northeast of the center of the broad low pressure system. A high pressure system southeast of the U.S. was contributing to a stronger pressure gradient in that region. The stronger pressure gradient was causing winds to blow at tropical storm force. The winds were weaker in the other parts of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. There were several smaller circulations revolving counterclockwise around the broader Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. One of the smaller circulations was south of Louisiana and another one was over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands northeast of the broad center and in a long band on the eastern side of the circulation.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will move through an environment slightly favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move between an upper level low over eastern Texas and an upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The low and ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification. The upper level ridge will contribute to upper level divergence that will pump mass to the east of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. There will also be drier air over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, which will make it difficult for thunderstorms to develop in that area. Potential Tropical Cyclone Three could intensify a little more during the next six hours. If a well defined surface center of circulation develops, the system could be designated as a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will move around the western end of the high pressure system southeast of the U.S. The high pressure system will steer it toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will make landfall in southeastern Louisiana on Friday night. The system will move across southeastern Mississippi on Saturday and it could reach Alabama by Saturday night. It will bring gusty winds to southeast Louisiana and the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama. The system could cause a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet (1.0 to 1.5 meters) along parts of the coast. It will drop locally heavy rain when it moves inland. Heavy rain could cause flash floods over parts of the southeastern U.S. Flash Flood Watches were in effect for parts of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northwestern Florida, and western Georgia. There may also be enough low level wind shear to produce tornadoes when the rainbands in the eastern side of the circulation when it moves inland.

Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Northern Gulf Coast

The National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday afternoon. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Alabama border including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (03L) was located at latitude 22.9°N and longitude 92.4.W which put it about 475 miles (765 km) south of Morgan City, Louisiana. Potential Tropical Cyclone Three was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The weather system designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Three consisted of a complex circulation containing of parts of several different weather features. A broad surface low pressure system was over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. A low pressure system in the middle and upper troposphere was over the western gulf of Mexico. An upper level ridge was over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern periphery of the broad surface low. Drier air in the middle and upper levels of the upper level low was over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the drier air was inhibiting the formation of thunderstorms in that region. Several small circulation centers that originally formed within clusters of thunderstorms on the eastern side of the broader low were revolving counterclockwise around the broad center of the surface low.

The environment around Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will become a little more favorable for the formation of a tropical depression during the next 24 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. The upper level low and the upper ridge will interact to produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but they will also produce upper level divergence to the east of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. The upper level divergence will cause the surface pressure to decrease slowly. The drier air over the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms on the western side of the broad low pressure system. The inner end of a rainband will wrap closer to the center, but most of the thunderstorms are likely to remain in the eastern half of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. The National Hurricane Center could designate the system as a tropical depression if more thunderstorms develop closer to the center of circulation. The maximum sustained wind speed is forecast to increase to tropical storm force by Friday afternoon.

The upper level low and the upper ridge will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Three slowly toward the north during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the system could approach the coast of Louisiana by Friday evening. It is possible that a new center of circulation could form along the northern end of a rainband, which could bring it to the coast sooner. Potential Tropical Cyclone Three could be a tropical depression or a tropical storm when it approaches the coast. It will bring gusty winds to southeast Louisiana and the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama. The system could cause a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet (1.0 to 1.5 meters) along parts of the coast. It will likely drop locally heavy rain when it moves inland. Heavy rain could cause flash floods over parts of the southeastern U.S. There may also be enough low level wind shear to produce tornadoes when the rainbands in the eastern side of the circulation move inland.

Tropical Depression Cristobal Brings Rain to Lower Mississippi River Valley

Tropical Depression Cristobal brought rain to the lower Mississippi River Valley on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located at latitude 34.8°N and longitude 92.8°W which put it about 10 miles (15 km) west of Little Rock, Arkansas.  Cristobal was moving toward the north-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Depression Cristobal moved northward across Louisiana and Arkansas on Monday.  Steadier rain fell in the northern part of the circulation around Cristobal.  Diverging air from a surface high pressure system east of the Great Lakes converged with the circulation around the northern side of Tropical Depression Cristobal to produce rising motion.  The rising motion produced the steadier rain.  Thunderstorms in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Cristobal dropped locally heavy rain over parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.  Jackson, Mississippi received 2.49 inches (6.3 cm) of rain.  Little Rock, Arkansas received 1.49 inches (3.8 cm) of rain.

Tropical Depression Cristobal will move around the western side of a high pressure system.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north during the next several days.  The circulation around Tropical Depression Cristobal retained tropical characteristics on Monday night.  Radiosonde data from Little Rock and Jackson, Mississippi showed that there was still a warm core in the middle troposphere.  Cristobal is forecast to make a gradual transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 to 36 hours.  The circulation could strengthen during the extratropical transition and a Gale Warning has been issued for Lake Michigan.  Flood Watches were also in effect for locations from Mississippi to Wisconsin.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Causes Storm Surge on Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Cristobal caused a storm surge on the Gulf Coast on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 30.3°N and longitude 90.2°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) north-northwest of New Orleans, Louisiana.  Cristobal was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida.

The large circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal blew water toward the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.  The wind produced a rise in the water level from northwest Florida to southeast Louisiana.  The highest storm surges occurred along the coast of Mississippi and southeast Louisiana.  The water level reached 7.47 feet (2.28 m) at the Waveland Yacht Club in Mississippi.  The storm surge was 7.62 feet (2.32 m) at Shell Beach in Louisiana.  The storm surge covered coastal roads in Grand Isle, Louisiana and Biloxi, Mississippi.

The broad center of Tropical Storm Cristobal passed across the Lower Mississippi River delta on Sunday afternoon before it moved over New Orleans.  Cristobal began to weaken slowly as it moved inland.  Winds to tropical storm force were still occurring in the southeastern part of the circulation which was still over the Gulf of Mexico.  Most of the rain was falling in bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Cristobal.  Locally heavy rain fell over Northwest Florida, Southwest Alabama, Southern Mississippi and Southeastern Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cristobal will move over Louisiana and Arkansas on Monday.  Cristobal will continue to weaken slowly as it moves farther inland.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Mississippi, eastern Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri.  Flood Watches have been issued for some of those areas.

Large Tropical Storm Cristobal Churns Toward Louisiana

Large Tropical Storm Cristobal churned toward the coast of Louisiana on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 26.2°N and longitude 90.2°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south of Grand Isle, Louisiana.  Cristobal was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal continued to be very large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) to the east of the center of Cristobal.  A thunderstorm in a rainband on the eastern periphery of the circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal produced a tornado near Orlando, Florida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the western half of the circulation.  The winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force near the center of circulation.  The center passed just to the west of NOAA buoy 42001 on Saturday evening.  The buoy measured a surface pressure of 29.34 inches (993.8 mb).  More thunderstorms appeared to be forming north and south of the center of circulation on Saturday night.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the the shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will strengthen on Sunday.  If thunderstorms consolidate around the center of circulation, then there is a chance that Cristobal could strengthen into a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system on Sunday.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north.  A ridge in the middle troposphere will move north of Tropical Storm Cristobal later on Sunday.  The ridge will turn Cristobal toward the north-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cristobal will approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday afternoon.  The center of Cristobal could make landfall between Grand Isle and Morgan City.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will bring gusty winds to Northwest Florida, Southwest Alabama, Southern Mississippi and Southeastern Louisiana.  Those winds will push water toward the coast.  A storm surge of 1 to 4 feet (0.3 to 1.3 meters) will be possible.  The water level could rise 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) in parts of southeastern Louisiana.  Areas outside of levee protection systems could go under water.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will drop heavy rain over parts of southern Mississippi and Southeastern Louisiana.  Flash Flood Watches have been issued for those regions.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Slowly Strengthens

Tropical Storm Cristobal slowly strengthened on Saturday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 24.2°N and longitude 90.1°W which put it about 345 miles (555 km) south of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Cristobal was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida.

Although Tropical Storm Cristobal still did not exhibit the typical structure of a tropical storm, the circulation around it was more organized on Saturday morning.  A band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in a part of this band about 100 miles (160 km) south of the center of Cristobal.  A few thunderstorms formed just to the west of the center of circulation.  The structure of the wind field around Tropical Storm Cristobal was still asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) to the east of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 140 miles (220 km) on the western side of Cristobal.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will produce some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification.  The flow around the ridge will enhance upper level divergence to the northeast of Cristobal.  Enhanced upper level divergence could pump away enough mass to allow the surface pressure to decrease.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will strengthen during the next 24 hours.  If more thunderstorms form close to the center of circulation and an inner core develops, then there is a chance Cristobal could intensify into a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north during the next 18 to 24 hours.  A ridge in the middle levels will move north of Tropical Storm Cristobal on Sunday afternoon.  That ridge could force Cristobal to move toward the north-northwest for a few hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal could approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday afternoon.

The large circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal means that it will bring gusty winds to Northwest Florida, Southwest Alabama, Southern Mississippi, and Southeast Louisiana.  Those winds will push water toward the coast and they will cause a storm surge on the northern Gulf Coast.  The water level could rise 1 to 4 feet (0.3 to 1.3 meters) along the coast.  The storm surge could be 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) in parts of southeast Louisiana.  Areas outside levee systems could go under water.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will also drop heavy rain over southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana.  Fresh water flooding could occur.  Flood Watches have been issued for parts of those regions.