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Tropical Cyclone Alfred Continues to Strengthen

Tropical Cyclone Alfred continued to strengthen over the Coral Sea on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 155.5°E which put the center about 660 miles (1050 km) north-northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred continued to strengthen over the Coral Sea on Wednesday.  A very small circular eye was visible at the center of Alfred’s circulation on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred increased when Alfred strengthened on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Alfred is 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 22.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 41.9.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Gustav when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls will form.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle will cause Alfred to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Vanuatu.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move parallel to the east coast of Australia.  Alfred could move closer to the coast of Queensland by the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Meanders over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Alfred meandered over the Coral Sea on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 155.0°E which put the center about 850 miles (1370 km) north of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred continued to intensify gradually on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Alfred’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the developing eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Alfred’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Alfred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the southern side of Alfred’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.   Tropical Cyclone Alfred is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Vanuatu.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move parallel to the east coast of Australia.  Alfred could move closer to the coast of Queensland by the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Spins over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Alfred continued to spin over the Coral Sea on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 154.5°E which put the center about 670 miles (1085 km) north of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it spun over the Coral Sea on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Alfred’s circulation.  A small circular eye was evident at the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred on visible satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Storms near the center of Alfred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the southern side of Alfred’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Vanuatu.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move parallel to the east coast of Australia.  Alfred could move closer to the coast of Queensland by the end of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Forms over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Alfred formed over the Coral Sea on Sunday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 153.7°E which put the center about 560 miles (900 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the east at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea strengthened on Sunday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred exhibited more organization on Sunday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Alfred’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Storms near the center of Alfred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was fairly large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is near the Equator.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move farther away from Australia.  Alfred is like to start to move toward the south early next week.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Bianca formed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bianca was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 106.9°E which put the center about 590 miles (950 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia.  Bianca was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Paul Forms over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Paul formed over the Coral Sea on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Paul was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 154.3°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) south-southeast of the Tagula Island. Paul was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea southeast of New Guinea strengthened on Wednesday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Paul. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Paul. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Paul’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Paul. The circulation around Paul was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Paul’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Paul will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Paul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. An upper level trough over eastern Australia will produce west-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Paul’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Paul could intensify during the next 24 hours despite the wind shear. The vertical wind shear is forecast to increase on Friday. Paul will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Paul will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Paul will not move much during the next day or so. A high pressure system over the Southwest Pacific Ocean and eastern Australia is likely to start to steer Paul toward the west on Friday. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Paul will eventually start to move toward the northern Cape York Peninsula.

Elsewhere, a weakening Tropical Cyclone Olga was passing near Exmouth, Australia. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga was located at latitude 21.4°S and longitude 114.3°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) north-northeast of the Exmouth, Australia. Olga was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb. A weather station on Barrow Island reported a sustained wind speed of 37 m.p.h. (59 km/h) and a wind gust of 45 m.p.h. (72 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Neville Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Neville intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Wednesday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Neville was located at latitude 17.9°S and longitude 106.1°E which put it about 565 miles (915 km) west-northwest of Exmouth, Australia. Neville was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Neville rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Neville’s circulation and an eye was visible on satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Neville. Storms near the center of Neville generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Neville was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Neville’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Neville will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Neville will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Neville will intensify during the next 36 hours. Neville could intensify rapidly at times and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Neville will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Neville toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Neville will move farther away from Australia. Neville could pass south of the Cocos Islands on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Megan Makes Landfall in Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Megan made landfall in the Northern Territory of Australia on Monday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan was located at latitude 16.52S and longitude 136.6°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southeast of Port McArthur, Australia. Megan was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Roper to Mornington Island, Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Megan made landfall on the coast of the Northern Territory southeast of Port McArthur on Monday morning. A weather station in Borroloola, Australia reported a sustained wind speed of 37 m.p.h. (59 km/h) and a gust of 48 m.p.h. (78 km/h). The weather station in Borroloola also measured 12.12 inches (308.0 mm) of rain.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Megan also passed over the Pellew Islands before it made landfall in the Northern Territory. Centre Island reported a sustained wind speed of 82 m.p.h. (132 km/h) and a wind gust of 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h). The weather station on Centre Island also measured 14.99 inches (380.8 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Megan toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan will pass southeast of Borroloola. The center of Megan will pass between the McArthur River Mine and Robinson River.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland over the Northern Territory. Megan will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southeastern part of the Northern Territory. Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations. A Flood Watch was in effect for some of the inland parts of the Northern Territory and the Carpentaria Coastal Rivers.

Elsewhere, a Tropical Low weakened over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 112.1°E which put it about 385 miles (625 km) north-northwest of Exmouth. Australia. The Tropical Low was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Megan Brings Wind and Rain to Pellew Islands

Tropical Cyclone Megan brought wind and rain to the Pellew Islands on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 137.1°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) northeast of Borroloola, Australia. Megan was moving toward the south-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Alyangula to Mornington Island, Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Megan brought strong winds and heavy rain to the Pellew Islands on Sunday. An automated weather station on Centre Island reported a sustained wind speed of 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 73 m.p.h. (117 km/h). The weather station measured 6.67 inches (169.4 mm) of rain and it was still raining at the time of the latest observation.

Tropical Cyclone Megan continued to intensify on Sunday. A small circular eye was present at the center of Megan’s circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan. Storms near the center of Megan’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Megan was symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Megan. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Megan was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.4. Tropical Cyclone Megan was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Megan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Carpentaria. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Although more and more of the western side of Tropical Cyclone Megan will move over land, Megan could intensify during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Megan toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan will make landfall on the coast of the Northern Territory southeast of Port McArthur in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will continue to produce strong winds and heavy rain in the Pellew Islands. Megan will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the portion of the coast from Alyangula to Mornington Island. The part of the coast southeast of Port McArthur is likely to experience sustained winds to hurricane/typhoon force. Heavy rain will cause floods in some locations. A Flood Watch is in effect for parts of the Top End and Barkly in the Northern Territory. Tropical Cyclone Megan could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast.

Elsewhere, a Tropical Low continued to churn over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 112.7°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) north of Exmouth. Australia. The Tropical Low was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Megan Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Megan intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan was located at latitude 14.5°S and longitude 137.5°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) north-northeast of Borroloola, Australia. Megan was moving toward the southwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Alyangula to Mornington Island, Australia. A Watch was in effect for Mornington Island.

Tropical Cyclone Megan intensified rapidly on Saturday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Megan’s circulation. A small circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Megan’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Megan.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move through and environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Megan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Carpentaria. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Megan will intensify during the next 24 hours. Megan could intensify rapidly at times. Tropical Cyclone Megan could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Megan toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Megan will approach the coast of the Northern Territory near Port McArthur in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the portion of the coast from Alyangula to Mornington Island. The part of the coast near Port McArthur is likely to experience winds to hurricane/typhoon force. Heavy rain was already falling on parts of Groote Eylandt. Heavy rain will cause floods in some locations, A Flood Watch is in effect for parts of the Top End and Barkly in the Northern Territory. Tropical Cyclone Megan could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters along the coast.

Elsewhere, a Tropical Low continued to spin over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 113.7°E which put it about 385 miles (625 km) north of Exmouth, Australia. The Tropical Low was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Megan Develops Over Gulf of Carpentaria

Tropical Cyclone Megan developed over the Gulf of Carpentaria early on Saturday. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 137.6°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) north-northeast of Borroloola, Australia. Megan was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Alyangula to Mornington Island, Australia. A Watch was in effect for Mornington Island.

A low pressure system over the Gulf of Carpentaria strengthened early on Saturday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Megan. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Megan was well organized. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Megan’s circulation. An eye appeared to be forming at the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan. Storms near the center of Megan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move through and environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Megan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Carpentaria. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Megan will intensify during the next 24 hours. Megan is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. Tropical Cyclone Megan could intensify rapidly at times.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Megan toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Megan will approach the coast of the Northern Territory near Port McArthur in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the portion of the coast from Alyangula to Mornington Island. The part of the coast near Port McArthur is likely to experience winds to hurricane/typhoon force. Heavy rain was already falling on parts of Groote Eylandt. Heavy rain will cause floods in some locations, A Flood Watch is in effect for parts of the Top End and Barkly in the Northern Territory. Tropical Cyclone Megan could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters along the coast.

Elsewhere, a Tropical Low was spinning over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 17.3°S and longitude 114.0°E which put it about 345 miles (555 km) north of Exmouth, Australia. The Tropical Low was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.