Tag Archives: Erin

Erin Prompts Tropical Storm Watches for Northern Leeward Islands

The potential risk posed by Tropical Storm Erin prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for the Northern Leeward Islands on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 51.2°W which put the center about 790 miles (1270 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Erin was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

Tropical Storm Erin continued to strengthen gradually on Thursday.  Even though Tropical Storm Erin was strengthening, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands in the western side of Erin’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Erin consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Erin generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Erin is small,  Winds to tropical storm force extend out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Erin’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Erin will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Erin’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east, but winds will be stronger in the upper troposphere.  So, there will be some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Erin will intensity during the next 24 hours.  Erin is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical Storm Erin will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Erin will move toward the Northern Leeward Islands.  Erin could approach the Northern Leeward Islands on Friday night.

Tropical Storm Erin is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Northern Leeward Islands.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Erin Strengthens a Little

Tropical Storm Erin strengthened a little on Wednesday as it moved over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 46.6°W which put the center about 1095 miles (17635 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Erin was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Erin strengthened a little on Wednesday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Erin’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Erin.  Bands in the eastern side of Erin’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Erin generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Erin.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern half of Erin’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Erin were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Erin will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Erin’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east, but winds will be stronger in the upper troposphere.  So, there will be some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Erin will intensity during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over warmer water on Friday.  Erin is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on by Friday evening.

Tropical Storm Erin will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Erin will move toward the Northern Leeward Islands.  Erin could approach the Northern Leeward Islands on Friday night.

Tropical Storm Erin Churns Quickly Westward

Tropical Storm Erin churned quickly westward over the Atlantic Ocean between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 36.3°W which put the center about 1765 miles (2835 km) east of the Northern Lesser Antilles.  Erin was moving toward the west at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Erin moved into a region of drier air on Monday night.  The drier air caused many of the thunderstorms in Erin’s circulation to dissipate.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Erin consisted primarily of bands of showers and lower clouds on Tuesday morning.  A few thunderstorms were still occurring in some of the rainbands.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern half of Tropical Storm Erin.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northern side of Erin’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Erin were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Erin will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Erin’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east.  So, there will be little vertical wind shear.  Erin will continue to move through the region of drier air today.  The drier air will inhibit intensification in the short term.  Tropical Storm Erin is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over warmer water later this week.  Tropical Storm Erin is likely to strengthen to a hurricane later this week.

Tropical Storm Erin will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Erin will move toward the Northern Lesser Antilles.  Erin could approach the Northern Lesser Antilles at the end of this week.

Tropical Storm Erin Forms West of Cabo Verde

Tropical Storm Erin formed over the eastern Atlantic Ocean west of the Cabo Verde Islands on Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 28.0°W which put the center about 280 miles (455 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Erin was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean west of the Cabo Verde Islands strengthened on Monday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Erin.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Erin exhibited more organization on Monday morning.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Erin’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Erin.  Storms near the center of Erin started to generate upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern part of Tropical Storm Erin.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northern half of Erin’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Erin were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Erin will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Erin’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east.  So, there will be little vertical wind shear.  Erin will move through a region of drier air later today.  The drier air will inhibit intensification in the short term.  Tropical Storm Erin could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over warmer water later this week.  Tropical Storm Erin is likely to strengthen to a hurricane later this week.

Tropical Storm Erin will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Erin will move away from the Cabo Verde Islands.

Tropical Storm Dorian Strengthens, Hurricane Warnings for Virgin Islands

Tropical Storm Dorian strengthened on Wednesday morning and it was on the verge of becoming a hurricane.  Hurricane Warnings were issued for Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 64.5°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) south of St. Croix.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the British Virgin Islands.  A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch was in effect for Puerto Rico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian exhibited much greater organization on Wednesday morning.  A ring of strong thunderstorms wrapped almost completely around the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dorian.  Storms near near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north and northeast of the tropical storm.  The circulation also increased in size on Wednesday morning.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move northeast of an upper level low during the next 24 hours.  The low will produce some southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation, but the winds will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  The wind shear will decrease on Friday and Dorian could strengthen into a major hurricane near the Bahamas.

The upper level low will help to steer Tropical Storm Dorian toward the northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours.  A ridge of high pressure will build north of Dorian on Friday.  The ridge will block Dorian from moving north and it will steer Dorian toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dorian will pass over the Virgin Islands near the eastern end of Puerto Rico today.  Dorian will be near the northern Bahamas on Saturday and it could approach the east coast of Florida by Sunday night.  Dorian could be a major hurricane when it approaches the east coast of the U.S.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, former Tropical Storm Erin weakened to a tropical depression.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Erin was located at latitude 33.6°N and longitude 72.8°W which put it about 190 miles (305 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Erin was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Dorian Moves Toward Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Dorian moved toward Puerto Rico on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 63.0°W which put it about 275 miles (440 km) east-southeast of Ponce, Puerto Rico.  Dorian was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for Puerto Rico.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.  A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata.

The original low level center of Tropical Storm Dorian passed south of Barbados and St. Lucia on Tuesday morning.  Dorian dropped heavy rain and there were reports of flash floods on Martinique.  The original center weakened on Tuesday afternoon and a new low level center formed about 60 miles farther to the north.  The formation of a new center of circulation caused the forecast future track of Tropical Storm Dorian to be shifted northward as well.

Even with the formation of a new center of circulation, the overall circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian did not change much on Tuesday.  The circulation around Dorian remained small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounded the new low level center.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving the center of Tropical Storm Dorian.  Storms near the center were producing upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level low northwest of Puerto Rico will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, which will inhibit intensification.  A large mass of drier air is north of Tropical Storm Dorian and the drier air could also inhibit intensification if it gets pulled into the circulation around Dorian.  The small size of the circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian means that it could weaken or strengthen quickly if the environmental conditions change significantly.  Dorian is likely to weaken when it crosses Puerto Rico on Wednesday night.

The upper low northwest of Puerto Rico will help to steer Tropical Storm Dorian toward the northwest on Wednesday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dorian could reach Puerto Rico by Wednesday evening.  Dorian will bring gusty winds and it will drop locally heavy rain on Puerto Rico.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  A high pressure system will build north of Tropical Storm Dorian on Thursday and Friday.  The high will turn Dorian back toward the west-northwest.  Dorian could approach the east coast of Florida on Sunday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Six strengthened into Tropical Storm Erin southeast of Cape Hatteras on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located at latitude 31.9°N and longitude 72.1°W which put it about 300 miles (485 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Erin was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.  Tropical Storm Erin is forecast to move northeast toward Nova Scotia.