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Powerful Typhoon Doksuri Moves Near Northern Luzon

Powerful Typhoon Doksuri moved near northern Luzon on Monday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Doksuri was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 124.2°E which put it about 165 miles (265 km) east-southeast of Aparri, Philippines. Doksuri was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 926 mb.

Typhoon Doksuri strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean just to the east of northern Luzon. A circular eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) was present at the center of Doksuri’s circulation. The eye was surrounded with a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Doksuri. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

Doksuri was a large typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Doksuri’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 295 miles (475 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Doksuri was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 28.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 60.4. Typhoon Doksuri was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Wilma just before Wilma hit the Yucatan Peninsula in 2005. Doksuri was capable of causing widespread severe damage.

Typhoon Doksuri will move through an environment very favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours. Doksuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Doksuri could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall at the core of Doksuri, then concentric eyewalls could form. If concentric eyewalls, form, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Typhoon Doksuri to weaken.

Typhoon Doksuri will move around the southwestern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Doksuri toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the core of Typhoon Doksuri could pass just north of Escarpada Point in northeastern Luzon. The strongest part of Doksuri could affect the Babuyan Islands and the Batanes Islands north of Luzon. Doksuri will bring extremely strong winds and very heavy rain to the Babuyan Islands and the Batanes Islands. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Typhoon Doksuri could cause a storm surge of up to 15 feet (5 meters) along the coast of some of the islands where the wind pushes water toward the shore. Heavy rain could also fall over parts of northern Luzon. The core of Doksuri could be south of Taiwan in 36 hours.

Typhoon Doksuri Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Doksuri rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Doksuri was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 126.3°E which put it about 390 miles (615 km) southeast of Aparri, Philippines. Doksuri was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Doksuri rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Luzon on Sunday. An eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) was at the center of Doksuri’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Doksuri. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Doksuri increased when Doksuri rapidly intensified. Winds to typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Doksuri’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (355 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Doksuri was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.3. Doksuri was capable of causing widespread major damage.

Typhoon Doksuri will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Doksuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Doksuri will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. Doksuri could intensify rapidly at times.

Typhoon Doksuri will move around the southwestern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Doksuri toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Doksuri could be near northeastern Luzon within 36 hours. Doksuri could approach southern Taiwan in 60 hours.

Doksuri Rapidly Intensifies to a Typhoon

Former Tropical Storm Doksuri rapidly intensified to a typhoon over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Luzon on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Doksuri was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 127.4°E which put it about 475 miles (765 km) southeast of Aparri, Philippines. Doksuri was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Doksuri rapidly intensified to a typhoon during the past 12 hours. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Doksuri’s circulation. An eye at the center of circulation was evident on conventional and microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Doksuri. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Doksuri increased while Doksuri rapidly intensified. Winds to typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Doksuri’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Doksuri was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.0.

Typhoon Doksuri will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Doksuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Doksuri is likely to continue to intensify rapidly during the next 24 hours. Doksuri could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Doksuri will move around the southwestern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Doksuri toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Doksuri could be near northeastern Luzon within 48 hours. Doksuri could approach southern Taiwan in 72 hours.

Hurricane Calvin Churns Toward the Central Pacific

Hurricane Calvin churned toward the Central Pacific Ocean on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Calvin was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 130.4°W which put it about 1660 miles (2670 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii. Calvin was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Hurricane Calvin weakened on Saturday when it moved over cooler water east of Hawaii. Thunderstorms around the center of Calvin’s circulation did not rise as high into the atmosphere. The structure of Hurricane Calvin remained well organized even though the hurricane was weaker. A small circular eye was still present at the center of Calvin’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Calvin. Storms near the core still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Calvin was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Calvin’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Calvin was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 25.8.

Hurricane Calvin will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Calvin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25˚C. It will move through a region where then upper level winds that are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Calvin will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours because of the cooler water even though there will be little vertical wind shear.

Hurricane Calvin will move around the southern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern and Central Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Calvin toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Calvin will continue to move toward the Central Pacific Ocean. Calvin could approach Hawaii on Tuesday. Calvin could still be a tropical storm when it approaches Hawaii.

Calvin Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Calvin rapidly intensified to a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Calvin was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 123.2°W which put it about 1080 miles (1740 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Calvin was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Hurricane Calvin rapidly intensified to a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Friday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) formed at the center of Calvin’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Calvin. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Calvin increased as Calvin rapidly intensified. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Calvin’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Calvin was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.4.

Hurricane Calvin will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Calvin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where then upper level winds that are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Calvin could intensify during the next 12 hours. Calvin will move over cooler water on Saturday. Hurricane Calvin is likely to weaken when it moves over the cooler water.

Hurricane Calvin will move around the southern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Calvin toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Calvin will move toward the Central Pacific Ocean. Calvin could approach Hawaii on Tuesday. Calvin could still be a tropical storm when it approaches Hawaii.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy Continues Toward Indus River Delta

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy continued to move slowly toward the Indus River Valley on Tuesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 66.3°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) south of Karachi, Pakistan. Biparjoy was moving toward the north at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy remained in equilibrium with the surrounding environment on Tuesday and the intensity did not change much. A microwave satellite image showed a circular eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) at the center of Biparjoy’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Biparjoy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Biparjoy’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy increased on Tuesday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Biparjoy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.0. Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Biparjoy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the northern Arabian Sea. The upper level ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will start to blow toward the top of Biparjoy’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear will increase. In addition, more drier air will be pulled from South Asia into the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. The drier air will continue to inhibit formation of thunderstorms in the that part of Biparjoy. More drier air and more vertical wind shear are likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over the Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Biparjoy slowly toward the north during the next 12 hours. The upper level ridge over the northern Arabian Sea will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy toward the northeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will approach the coast near the border between India and Pakistan in 36 hours. Biparjoy is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches the Indus River Delta. The India Meteorological Department issued a Cyclone Warning for the Saurashtra and Kutch Coasts. Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Pakistan and western India. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Biparjoy could also cause a storm surge of up to 8 feet (2.4 meters along the coast).

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy Churns Toward Indus River Delta

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy continued to churn toward the Indus River Delta on Monday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 67.1°E which put it about 285 miles (455 km) south of Karachi, Pakistan. Biparjoy was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy appeared to be in equilibrium with the surrounding environment on Monday and the intensity did not change much. A microwave satellite image showed a small circular eye at the center of Biparjoy’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a narrow ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. Bands in the northern half of Biparjoy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Biparjoy’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of wind around Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy became more symmetrical on Monday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in all directions from the center of Biparjoy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.7.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Biparjoy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, drier air will be pulled from South Asia into the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. The drier air will continue to inhibit formation of thunderstorms in the that part of Biparjoy. Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy could remain in equilibrium with its environment during the next 24 hours if the effects of warm Sea Surface Temperatures and little vertical wind shear balance the effect of the drier air in the northern part of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over the Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Biparjoy slowly toward the north. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy could approach the coast near the border between India and Pakistan in 48 hours.

Typhoon Mawar Moves Toward Southern Ryukyu Islands

Typhoon Mawar moved toward the southern Ryukyu Islands on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Mawar was located at latitude 19.8°N and longitude 125.5°E which put it about 330 miles (535 km) south of Miyakojima, Japan. Mawar was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Mawar was in an equilibrium with its environment during much of the past 24 hours. The inner end of a rainband recently wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall and another pair of concentric eyewalls developed. The inner eye had a diameter of 30 miles (50 km). The inner eyewall was surrounded by a clear area, called a moat, and a much larger outer eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls. The strongest rainbands were in the southern half of Mawar’s circulation. Storms near the concentric eyewalls generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. The upper level divergence pumped away an amount of mass that was nearly equal to the mass converging in the lower levels of Mawar’s circulation. Since the upper level divergence was nearly equal to the lower level convergence, Typhoon Mawar maintained a nearly steady intensity during the past 24 hours.

The circulation around Typhoon Mawar continued to be large. Winds to typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Mawar’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of Mawar. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mawar was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.7. Typhoon Mawar was similar in intensity to Hurricane Rita when Rita hit Southwest Louisiana in 2005. Mawar was a little smaller than Rita was.

Typhoon Mawar will move through an environment favorable for a strong typhoon during the next 24 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the the axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Although the environment is favorable, the formation of concentric eyewalls is likely to start an eyewall replacement cycle that will cause Typhoon Mawar to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Mawar will move around the western part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mawar toward the north during the next 36 hours. The steering winds will weaken as Mawar moves around the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mawar will move slowly toward the southern Ryukyu Islands during the next 36 hours.

Typhoon Mawar Moves South of Ryukyu Islands

Typhoon Mawar moved south of the Ryukyu Islands on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Mawar was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 125.7°E which put it about 505 miles (815 km) southeast of Ishigakijima, Japan. Mawar was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Typhoon Mawar continued to weaken gradually on Sunday morning as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean south of the Ryukyu Islands. A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was present at the center of Mawar’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Mawar. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm in all directions. The upper level divergence was still not removing as much mass as was converging in the lower levels of Mawar’s circulation which caused the surface pressure to continue to increase slowly.

Typhoon Mawar continued to be a large typhoon even though it was gradually weakening. Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Mawar’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of Mawar. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mawar was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 26.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 48.7. Typhoon Mawar was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Jeanne when Jeanne hit South Florida in 2004.

Typhoon Mawar will move through an environment favorable for a strong typhoon during the next 24 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the the axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Although the environment is favorable, Typhoon Mawar will continue to weaken gradually as long as the upper level divergence is removing less mass than is converging in the lower levels. Typhoon Mawar is forecast to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Mawar will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mawar toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. Typhoon Mawar will move toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system early next week. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mawar will move toward the southern Ryukyu Islands next week.

Typhoon Mawar Weakens a Little

Typhoon Mawar weakened a little on Saturday as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean south of the Ryukyu Islands. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Mawar was located at latitude 16.9°N and longitude 130.4°E which put it about 650 miles (1050 km) southeast of Ishigakijima, Japan. Mawar was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 926 mb.

Typhoon Mawar weakened a little after it went through another eyewall replacement cycle. The previous inner eye and eyewall dissipated. However, a circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was present at the center of Mawar’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Mawar. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm in all directions. The upper level divergence was not able to remove as much mass as was converging in the lower levels of Mawar’s circulation which caused the surface pressure to increase slowly.

The recent eyewall replacement cycle caused the size of the circulation around Typhoon Mawar to remain large. Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Mawar’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) from the center of Mawar. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mawar was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 30.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 61.6. Typhoon Mawar was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Wilma when Wilma was over the Northwest Caribbean Sea in 2005.

Typhoon Mawar will move through an environment favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the the axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Although the environment is favorable, the recent eyewall replacement cycle partially disrupted the inner core of Typhoon Mawar. Since the upper level divergence is removing less mass than is converging in the lower levels, the surface pressure is likely to increase slowly. If the surface pressure continues to increase, Typhoon Mawar will weaken gradually during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Mawar will move around the southern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mawar toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mawar could move south of Ishigakijima, Japan in 48 hours.