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Hurricane Nate Brings Gusty Winds and Surge to Mississippi Coast

Hurricane Nate brought gusty winds, heavy rain and a storm surge to the coast of Mississippi on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Nate was located at latitude 29.9°N and longitude 89.1°W which put it about 35 miles (60 km) south-southwest of Biloxi, Mississippi.  Nate was moving toward the north at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (140 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, for New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain and for the coast from the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida.

Some drier air wrapped into the western side of Hurricane Nate on Saturday afternoon.  In addition an upper level trough approaching Nate from the west produced southwesterly winds which caused vertical wind shear.  The drier air and shear caused the circulation of Hurricane Nate to become asymmetrical.  The stronger winds are occurring in the eastern half of the circulation.  The winds are weaker in the western side of the hurricane.  The bands of showers and thunderstorms are also occurring in the eastern half of Hurricane Nate.  Very little rain was falling on the western side of the hurricane.

The partial eyewall north of the center of Hurricane Nate was moving over the coast of Mississippi from Pascagoula to Gulfport.  Strong gusty winds and heavy rain were falling on that section of the coast.  Winds blowing water toward the coast were pushing a storm surge onto the coast.  A water level gauge at a NOAA laboratory in Pascagoula, Mississippi was reporting a storm surge of 6.75 feet (2.06 meters).  The highest surges were occurring in Mississippi, but there were also storm surges on the coast of Alabama and Florida.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain over southeastern Mississippi, southwestern and central Alabama and northwestern Florida.  Brief tornadoes spun up in some of the thunderstorms on Saturday.

Hurricane Nate will move inland over southeastern Mississippi during the overnight hours.  Nate will weaken after it moves inland, but it will continue to bring gusty winds as it spins down.  There is a strong flow of moist air from the south and heavy rain will continue to fall east of the track of Hurricane Nate.  Places west of the track will experience weaker winds and will receive little rain.  Locations west of a line from New Orleans to Hattiesburg to Meridian,  Mississippi could see little minimal impacts from Nate.  Nate will cross over west central Alabama on Sunday morning.  It will continue to move toward the north-northeast and the remnants of Nate could reach eastern Tennessee on Sunday night.  Areas of heavy rain will fall over northwestern Florida, Alabama, northern Georgia, eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina.  Fresh water flooding could occur in some of those areas.  Tornadoes could develop in the rainbands again on Sunday afternoon.

Hurricane Nate Speeds Toward Gulf Coast

Strengthening Hurricane Nate sped toward the central Gulf Coast on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Nate was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 88.4°W which put it about 265 miles (425 km) south of Biloxi, Mississippi.  Nate was moving toward the north-northwest at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line and from Grand Isle to Morgan City, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida and from Grand Isle to Morgan City.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City to Intracoastal City, Louisiana.

Hurricane Nate strengthened on Saturday as it moved over the warm water in the Gulf of Mexico.  An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) began to form at the center of circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms around the eye was generating strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from Hurricane Nate.  The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of the circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) east of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 120 miles (195 km) east of the center, but they only extend out about 60 miles (95 km) to the west of the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Nate is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 7.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 21.6.

Hurricane Nate will continue to intensify during the next 12 hours until it makes landfall.  Nate will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper low over the western Gulf of Mexico is producing southerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  However, there are also southerly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere and as a result, there is not much vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Nate is likely to intensify to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale before it makes landfall.  There is a chance Hurricane Nate could intensify to Category 3 before landfall, if it continues to intensify rapidly.

The upper low and an upper level ridge east of Florida are combining to steer Hurricane Nate quickly toward the north-northwest and that motion is expected to continue for the next few hours.  An upper level trough over the Central U.S. will approach Nate on Saturday night as the hurricane nears the coast.  The trough will turn Hurricane Nate more toward the north as it reaches the coast.  The trough should steer Nate quickly toward the north-northeast after it makes landfall.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Nate will pass near the mouth of the Mississippi River on Saturday evening.  The center of Nate will likely make landfall on the coast of Mississippi or near Mobile on Saturday night.

Hurricane Nate will be capable of causing regional serious damage when it makes landfall.  Nate will produce strong winds, especially in locations east of the track of the hurricane.  Nate will also be capable of producing a storm surge of 10 to 12 feet (3 to 4 meters) along the coast.  The surge will be higher in bays, inlets and mouths of rivers that funnel the water into specific areas.  Nate will also be capable of dropping heavy rain as it moves inland.

Stronger Tropical Storm Nate Speeds Toward Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Warning for New Orleans

A stronger Tropical Storm Nate sped toward the Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon and a Hurricane Warning was issued for the city of New Orleans.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 85.7°W which put it about 80 miles (125 km) east of Cozumel, Mexico and about 710 miles (1145 km) south-southeast of New Orleans, Louisiana.  Nate was moving toward the north-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line in Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle to Morgan City, Louisiana and from the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect from Morgan City to Intracoastal City, Lousiana and from the Okaloosa/Walton County line to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Pinar del Rio province in Cuba.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Isle of Youth province in Cuba.

The inner core of Tropical Storm Nate tightened up on Friday afternoon.  A primary rainband wrapped about three quarters of the way around the center of circulation.  There was an opening to the northeast of the center.  The rainband could develop into an eyewall if it wraps completely around the center of circulation.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms formed outside the core of Tropical Storm Nate.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 125 miles (200 km) to the east of the center of circulation.  The winds were weaker in the western half of the circulation.  Thunderstorms near the core began to generate stronger upper level divergence which was pumping out mass and the surface pressure decreased on Friday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Nate will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Saturday.  Nate will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico is producing southerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation but the vertical wind shear is not too strong.  Tropical Storm Nate will become a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.  If an eyewall and an eye form, then Nate could have a period of rapid intensification.

The upper low over the western Gulf of Mexico and a ridge east of Florida are combining to steer Tropical Storm Nate toward the north-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue on Saturday.  An upper level trough approaching from the west will turn Nate toward the northeast when it nears the U.S.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nate will pass near the northeastern end of the Yucatan peninsula and move into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday night.  Nate will approach southeastern Louisiana and Central Gulf Coast on Saturday night.

Nate will be a hurricane when it nears the U.S.  It will be capable of producing serious regional wind damage and power outages.  Nate could cause a storm surge of 10-12 feet (3 to 4 meters) near where the center makes landfall.  Nate could also drop locally heavy rain and cause fresh water flooding when it moves inland in the southern U.S.

Tropical Storm Nate Makes Landfall in Nicaragua

Tropical Depression Sixteen strengthened into Tropical Storm Nate and Nate made landfall on the coast of northeastern Nicaragua on Thursday morning.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 84.0°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) south-southwest of Puerto Lempira, Honduras.  Nate was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua to Punta Castilla, Honduras.

The center of Tropical Depression Sixteen strengthened on Thursday morning before it made landfall in Nicaragua and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Nate.  Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop near the center of circulation even though it is moving across northeastern Nicaragua.  The winds to tropical storm force are occurring in bands of showers and storms east of the center over the Caribbean Sea.  The winds are weaker in the portions of the circulation that are over land.

Tropical Storm Nate will not strengthen while the center is over land.  Nate will move into a favorable environment when it moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday.  The Sea Surface Temperature will be near 30°C.  An upper level low will cause southerly winds to blow toward the top of the circulation, but the vertical wind shear is not likely to be strong enough to prevent intensification.  It could take a few hours for the inner core of the circulation to reorganize after it moves back over water.  Once the inner core reorganizes, then a period of rapid intensification could occur.  Nate could become a hurricane over the northwest Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico.

An upper level low west of Florida will drift westward over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper low and an upper level ridge east of Florida will combine to steer Tropical Storm Nate toward the north-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nate will emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday.  Nate could be near the Yucatan peninsula on Friday night and it could move into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.  Nate could approach the northern Gulf Coast on Saturday night or Sunday morning.

Tropical Storm Nate is dropping heavy rain on parts of Nicaragua and Honduras.  There is the potential for flooding in those areas.  Nate is likely to be a hurricane when it approaches the Gulf Coast.  It will be capable of causing wind damage, a storm surge and locally heavy rain.

Tropical Depression 16 Organizes Near Nicaragua

Tropical Depression Sixteen organized near Nicaragua on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 82.7°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) south-southeast of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua.  It was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua to Punta Castilla, Honduras.

The circulation of Tropical Depression Sixteen exhibited more organization on Wednesday.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found a distinct surface center of circulation on Wednesday afternoon.  More thunderstorms began to form near the center on Wednesday evening.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms developed on the northern and southern sides of the circulation.  There were sustained winds in some of the bands that were near tropical storm force.

Tropical Depression Sixteen will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next several days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Some of the western part of the circulation is passing over Nicaragua and the increased friction is the only factor inhibiting intensification.  If the center of circulation stays over water, then the depression will likely strengthen into a tropical storm on Thursday.  If the center of circulation moves over northeastern Nicaragua, then the depression will weaken.  The system is likely to strengthen when it moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

A ridge of high pressure is steering the tropical depression slowly toward the northwest and that motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  An upper low near the west coast of Florida is going to move west across the Gulf of Mexico.  When the upper low gets northwest of Tropical Depression Sixteen, it will start to pull the depression more toward the north.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen will move near or over northeastern Nicaragua on Thursday.  The depression could drop very heavy rain and cause floods in parts of Nicaragua and Honduras.  It is forecast to move over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday and the depression could be near the northeastern Yucatan peninsula by Friday night.  The depression is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.  There is more uncertainty about the future track of the system after that time.

Tropical Storm Otto Crosses Into the Eastern North Pacific Ocean

Tropical Storm Otto moved steadily along the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica and crossed into the eastern North Pacific Ocean on Thursday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Otto was located at latitude 10.9°N and longitude 85.6°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) north of Liberia, Costa Rica.  Otto was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (140 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

The structure of Tropical Storm Otto remained intact as it crossed from the southwestern Caribbean Sea to the eastern North Pacific Ocean.  Radar images from Nicaragua and infrared satellite images both showed that the eye continued to exist.  A ring of strong thunderstorms still surrounds the eye and those storms are generating upper level divergence.

Tropical Storm Otto will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C on Friday, and it will move over warmer water during the weekend.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Otto is likely to strengthen back into a hurricane once the entire circulation moves over the eastern North Pacific Ocean and a period of rapid intensification is possible.

A ridge north of Otto is steering the tropical storm toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Otto is expected to move steadily away from the west coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

Hurricane Otto Strengthens As It Nears Nicaragua and Costa Rica

Hurricane Otto strengthened quickly on Thursday morning as it neared the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.  At 7:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Otto was located at latitude 11.0°N and longitude 82.9°W which put it about 90 miles (150 km) southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua.  Otto was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Limon, Costa Rica to Bluefields, Nicaragua.  A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the portions of the coast from Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua and from the Panama/Costa Rica border to Limon, Costa Rica.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the portions of the coast from Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua and from Puntarenas, Costa Rica to Puerto Sandino, Nicaragua.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Otto strengthened quickly during the overnight hours.  The reconnaissance plane found a circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km).  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Additional bands of thunderstorms are occurring north and west of the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of Hurricane Otto are generating upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the center.

Hurricane Otto is a small hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extend out about 20 miles (32 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 26.2.  These indices indicate that Hurricane Otto is capable of causing localized serious wind damage.

Hurricane Otto is moving through a favorable environment and it could strengthen further before it reaches the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.  Otto is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.

A ridge of high pressure north of Otto is steering the hurricane toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue today.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Otto will make landfall over southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica later today.

In addition to localized serious wind damage Hurricane Otto will produce a storm surge along the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.  The surge will be highest north of where the center makes landfall because that is where the wind will push the water toward the coast.  Hurricane Otto will produce very heavy rain over parts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.  The heavy could cause serious flooding and mudslides in some locations.  Outer rainbands could also produce heavy rain over portions of Honduras and El Salvador.

Hurricane Otto Approaching Nicaragua and Costa Rica

After weakening to a tropical storm earlier on Wednesday Hurricane Otto intensified as it approached the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Otto was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 82.2°W which put it about 120 miles east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua.  Otto was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (140 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Limon, Costa Rica to Bluefields, Nicaragua.  Hurricane Watches have been issued for the portions of the coast from Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua and from the Panama/Costa Rica border to Limon, Costa Rica.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the  portions of the coast from Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua, from Puntarenas, Costa Rica to Puerto Sandino, Nicaragua and for San Andres Island.

Hurricane Otto had meandered over the same water long enough to mix cooler water to the surface.  The cooler water reduced the energy transfer to the atmosphere and the inner core of Otto weakened.  The eye disappeared and Otto weakened below hurricane intensity.  When Otto began to move west, the core of the circulation moved away from the cooler water.  Thunderstorms developed rapidly near the center of circulation and the inner core began to redevelop.  A reconnaissance plane found that the wind speed had increased above hurricane intensity again.

Hurricane Otto has a very small circulation.  Winds to hurricane force only extend out about 12 miles (19 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 4.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 17.4.  These indices indicated that Hurricane Otto is capable of causing localized minor wind damage.

The small circulation of Hurricane Otto is more symmetrical.   There are indications that a circular eye and eyewall could be reforming at the center of the hurricane.  Several bands of thunderstorms are rotating around the core of Otto.  Thunderstorms at the core were generating upper level divergence which pumped out mass and allowed the surface pressure to decrease on Wednesday evening.

Hurricane Otto will be moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification until it makes landfall.  Otto will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge east of the hurricane is producing southeasterly winds which are flowing near the top of the circulation.  However, those winds are weaker than they were yesterday and the vertical wind shear is less.  Hurricane Otto could strengthen further during the next few hours.

A ridge to the north of Otto is steering the hurricane toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Otto will make a landfall on the coast between the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border and Monkey Point, Nicaragua.  Winds blowing toward the coast will produce a storm surge along the southern coast of Nicaragua.  Otto could drop heavy rain over Nicaragua and Costa Rica.  Outer bands may also produce locally heavy rain over parts of Honduras and El Salvador.  The rain may be heavy enough to cause flooding and mudslides.

Otto Becomes a Hurricane, Watches and Warnings Issued

Tropical Storm Otto intensified into a hurricane on Tuesday as it meandered over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Otto was located at latitude 10.5°N and longitude 79.6°W which put it about 235 miles (375 km) east of Limon, Costa Rica.  Otto was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Hurricane Watches have been issued for the portion of the coast from the Costa Rica/Panama border to Bluefields, Nicaragua.  Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the portion of the coast from Nargana to Colon, Panama and for San Andres Island, Colombia.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the portions of the coast from Colon, Panama to the Panama/Costa Rica border and from Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua.

The inner core of Hurricane Otto became more circular and symmetrical on Tuesday.  An eyelike feature appeared on microwave satellite imagery and hints of an eye were seen intermittently on visible imagery during the day.  There appeared to be breaks in the eyewall on the southeast side of the eye.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms are forming northwest of the eye.  Convective activity outside the core of Hurricane Otto is more asymmetrical.  There are some thinner rainbands north and west of the center where winds from a high pressure system are converging into the circulation of Otto.  There are fewer showers and thunderstorms in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation.  Thunderstorms around the center of the hurricane are generating upper level divergence at the very top of the circulation.

Hurricane Otto has a very small circulation.  Winds to hurricane force only extend out about 10 miles (15 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Otto is 10.4.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 3.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 13.6.

Hurricane Otto will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is 29°C.  An upper level ridge located east of Otto is generating southeasterly winds which are blowing against the upper portion of the circulation of the hurricane.  Those winds appear to be hitting Otto just under the level of upper level divergence at the top of the circulation.  So, the upper level winds and vertical wind shear appear to be restricting upper level divergence to the south of the circulation, but they do not appear to be completely blocking divergence.  The speed of the upper level winds is forecast to decrease.  If the vertical shear decreases, then Hurricane Otto could strengthen.

A ridge of high pressure is forecast to build north of Hurricane Otto.  That ridge will steer Otto toward the west and the hurricane could start to move faster on Wednesday.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Otto could approach the coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Thursday.

Hurricane Otto is a small hurricane, but it could cause localized minor wind damage.  Heavy rain, flash floods and mudslides are a much greater threat.  Hurricane Otto could bring flooding rains to portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Panama, Costa Rica, Guatemala and El Salvador.

On a historical note Hurricane Martha formed during this time of year in 1969 in almost exactly the same area where Hurricane Otto formed.  Hurricane Martha moved southward and weakened.  Martha officially made landfall in Panama as a tropical storm, but it did cause flooding rains and fatalities in parts of Costa Rica.

TD 16 Becomes Tropical Storm Otto

The National Hurricane Center named former Tropical Depression 16 as Tropical Storm Otto on Monday afternoon based on data from satellites.  At 4:00 p.m. EST the center of Tropical Storm Otto was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 79.2°W which put it about 315 miles (505 km) east of Bluefields, Nicaragua.  Otto was stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The structure of Tropical Storm Otto has not changed appreciably during today.  Most of the thunderstorms are occurring in bands north and west of the center of circulation.  There are fewer thunderstorms in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation.  Otto is a small tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center.  Thunderstorms are generating upper level divergence which is pumping mass out north and west of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Otto will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature will be near 29°C unless Otto moves so slowly that its own circulation mixes cooler water to the surface.  Southerly winds in the upper levels are generating moderate vertical wind shear, but those winds are expected to weaken.  When the vertical shear diminishes, Tropical Storm Otto will be likely to intensify and it could become a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Otto is currently in a region where the steering currents are weak.  However, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build north of Otto, and the ridge is likely to steer the tropical storm toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Otto could approach the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica in 48 to 72 hours.

Tropical Storm Otto could be a hurricane by the time it reaches the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.  Otto will be capable of bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to portions of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, northern Panama, Honduras, El Salvador and southern Guatemala.  The locally heavy rain could produce flash floods and mudslides in areas of steep terrain.