Tag Archives: Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Turns Southwest

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek turned southwest over the South Indian Ocean west of Cocos Island on Tuesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was located at latitude 13.6°S and longitude 91.5°E which put it about 370 miles (600 km) west of Cocos Islands. Anggrek was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek strengthened after it started to move toward the southwest on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western side of the center of Anggrek’s circulation. More thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Anggrek generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Anggrek will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and there will be less vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is likely to strengthen back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system west of Australia. The high pressure system will steer Anggrek toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move far to the southeast of Diego Garcia later this week.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, a tropical depression formed east of Rodrigues. At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 57.9°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) east of Rodrigues. The tropical depression was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien Moves Southwest of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Fabien moved southwest of Diego Garcia on Friday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 10.2°S and longitude 69.6°E which put it about 285 miles (460 km) southwest of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien was maintaining its intensity on Friday morning as it moved southwest of Diego Garcia, but the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern quadrant of Fabien’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Fabien consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Drier air had wrapped around the western and northern sides of Fabien’s circulation and the drier air was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Storms in the southeastern quadrant of Fabien still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Fabien. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the southern half of Fabien.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment that will become a little more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker and the vertical wind shear will decrease. The drier air in the western and northern parts of Tropical Cyclone Fabien will continue to inhibit intensification. Even with the effects of the drier air, Tropical Cyclone Fabien could intensify during the next 24 hours when the wind shear decreases.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien slowly toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move farther away from Diego Garcia. Fabien is likely to move toward the south during the weekend when it moves around the western end of the high pressure system.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien Weakens South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Fabien weakened over the South Indian Ocean south of Diego Garcia during Wednesday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 9.1°S and longitude 71.7°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) south-southwest of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien weakened to the equivalent of a tropical storm as it passed south of Diego Garcia during Wednesday night. The clockwise circulation around Fabien continued to pull drier air into the western side of the tropical cyclone. Bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Fabien consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Fabien’s circulation and in bands in the eastern side of the tropical cyclone. The thunderstorms near the center of Fabien still were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, southerly winds in the western side of Fabien’s circulation will continue to pull drier air into the tropical cyclone. In addition, Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fabien’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The drier air and vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Fabien to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien slowly toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move southwest of Diego Garcia during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien Moves Southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Fabien moved southeast of Diego Garcia on Wednesday morning. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 9.0°S and longitude 73.6°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien began to show signs of weakening on Wednesday morning. The clockwise circulation around Fabien was pulling drier air into the western side of the tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Fabien were weakening. Some bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The former circular eye was no longer visible on satellite images. There were still bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern half of Fabien’s circulation. Thunderstorms on the eastern side of Fabien still were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fabien was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Fabien’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fabien was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.5. Tropical Cyclone Fabien was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, southerly winds in the western side of Fabien’s circulation will continue to pull drier air into the tropical cyclone. In addition, Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fabien’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The drier air and vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Fabien to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien will pass south of Diego Garcia during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Fabien more toward the west later this week. Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move southwest of Diego Garcia on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Fabien strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean east of Diego Garcia on Tuesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 7.6°S and longitude 74.8°E which put it about 180 miles (290 km) east of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Diego Garcia on Tuesday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) was present at the center of Fabien’s circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fabien. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fabien was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Fabien’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fabien was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.0. Tropical Cyclone Fabien was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western side of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Fabien could continue to intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move southeast of Diego Garcia during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Fabien more toward the west later this week. The center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien could be south of Diego Garcia in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Fabien rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 5.4°S and longitude 7°9.0E which put it about 490 miles (790 km) east-northeast of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

After it strengthened to a tropical cyclone on Sunday morning, Tropical Cyclone Fabien rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by Sunday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Fabien’s circulation. A small circular eye was forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Fabien’s circulation. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fabien was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Fabien. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fabien’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Fabien will intensity during the next 36 hours. Fabien is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien toward the west-southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fabien could pass near Diego Garcia in 48 hours. Fabien is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it passes near Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien Forms over South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Fabien formed over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 4.7°S and longitude 81.7°E which put it about 690 miles (1110 km) east-northeast of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean east-northeast of Diego Garcia strengthened on Sunday morning and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Fabien. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fabien exhibited more organization on Sunday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Fabien’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fabien’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Fabien will intensity during the next 48 hours. Fabien is forecast to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien toward the west-southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fabien could pass near Diego Garcia in two or three days. Fabien is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it passes near Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Strengthens near Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Freddy strengthened near the coast of Mozambique on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 37.1°E which put it about 130 miles (210 km) east-southeast of Vilankulo, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy continued to intensify on Thursday evening as it moved closer to the coast of Mozambique. The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of Freddy’s circulation. An eye appeared to be forming again at the center of circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Freddy.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 10 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over southern Africa. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 10 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over southern Africa. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will reach the coast of Mozambique in 10 hours. The center of Freddy will make landfall between Vilankulo and Pomene. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall. Freddy will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Mozambique. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast between Vilankulo and Pomene.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Enala intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved farther away from Diego Garcia. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Enala was located at latitude 20.3°S and longitude 70.9°E which put it about 870 miles (1405 km) south of Diego Garcia. Enala was moving toward the south-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Strengthens over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Freddy strengthened over the Mozambique Channel on Thursday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 22.4°S and longitude 38.8°E which put it about 235 miles (380 km) east of Vilankulo, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy strengthened again over warm water in the Mozambique Channel on Thursday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Freddy’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Freddy.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over southern Africa. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 12 hours. Freddy could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over southern Africa. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will approach the coast of Mozambique in 15 hours. The center of Freddy will make landfall near Vilankulo. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall. Freddy will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Mozambique. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast near Vilankulo.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Enala moved farther away from Diego Garcia. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Enala was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 71.7°E which put it about 705 miles (1135 km) south of Diego Garcia. Enala was moving toward the south-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Moves over the Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 22.1°S and longitude 40.5°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) east of Vilankulo, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy weakened to the equivalent of a tropical depression during its passage across Madagascar. The former eye and eyewall dissipated during the trip across Madagascar. New thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of Freddy’s circulation after the center moved over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that started to pump mass away from the tropical cyclone again.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over southern Africa. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over southern Africa. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will approach the coast of Mozambique in a little over 24 hours. The center of Freddy could make landfall between Vilankulo and Mambone near Macovane. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Mozambique. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Enala developed south of Diego Garcia. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Enala was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 72.9°E which put it about 605 miles (975 km) south of Diego Garcia. Enala was moving toward the southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.