Tag Archives: Mexico

Tropical Storm Gilma Strengthens

Tropical Storm Gilma strengthened as it churned westward over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 116.9°W which put the center about 705 miles (1135 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Gilma was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Storm Gilma strengthened on Monday as it churned westward over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California.  Even though Tropical Storm Gilma strengthened, the distribution of thunderstorms around Gilma’s circulation remained asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Gilma’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Gilma consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Gilma generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Storm Gilma increased a little on Monday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Gilma’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Gilma will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gilma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern north Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Gilma’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Gilma is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Gilma will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gilma toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Gilma will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Gilma Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Gilma formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Sunday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 112.3°W which put the center about 585 miles (945 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Gilma was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

An area of low pressure over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California strengthened on Sunday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Gilma.  A well defined low level center of circulation was evident in visible satellite images.  However, the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Gilma was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Gilma’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Gilma consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Gilma started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Gilma was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northern side of Gilma’s circulation.  The winds in the southern side of Gilma were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Gilma will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gilma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern north Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Gilma’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm GIlma is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Gilma will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gilma toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Gilma will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Emilia Absorbs Fabio

The circulation around Tropical Storm Emilia absorbed the circulation of former Tropical Storm Fabio on Wednesday afternoon.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 117.7°W which put the center about 565 miles (910 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Emilia was moving toward the northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of former Tropical Storm Fabio was located at latitude 18.4°N and longitude 120.2°W which put the center about 735 miles (1180 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Fabio was moving toward the southwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The larger circulation around Tropical Storm Emilia absorbed the smaller circulation around Tropical Storm Fabio on Wednesday.

The absorption of Fabio’s circulation did disrupt the circulation around Tropical Storm Emilia, especially on the western side of its circulation.  Bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Storm Emilia consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Emilia’s circulation.  The interactions of the two circulations also inhibited upper level divergence to the north and west of Tropical Storm Emilia.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Emilia.

Tropical Storm Emilia will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Emilia will move move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Emilia will weaken when it moves over cooler water on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Emilia will move around the southern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Emilia toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Emilia will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storms Emilia and Fabio Interact

The circulations around Tropical Storms Emilia and Fabio were interacting on Tuesday afternoon.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 115.3°W which put the center about 685 miles (1110 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Emilia was moving toward the northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was located at latitude 19.2°N and longitude 113.9°W which put the center about 625 miles (1010 km) west of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Fabio was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulations around Tropical Storm Emilia and Fabio were interacting on Tuesday afternoon.  Winds blowing around the southern side of Fabio’s circulation were interacting with winds that were blowing around the northern side of Tropical Storm Emilia.  The interactions were occurring in both the upper and lower troposphere.  The interactions were affecting the structures of both tropical storms.

Tropical Storm Emilia appeared to be the larger and more powerful of the two tropical storms.  Even so, the flow around the southern side of Fabio was having an effect on Emilia’s structure.  Most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Emilia were occurring in bands in the southern half of Emilia’s circulation.  Bands in the northern side of Emilia consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.  Outflow from Tropical Storm Fabio was inhibiting upper level divergence to the north of Tropical Storm Emilia.

The interactions between the two tropical storms was also affecting the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Emilia.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the southern half of Emilia’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern side of Emilia.

The interaction with Tropical Storm Emilia appeared to be contributing to the start of a weakening trend in Tropical Storm Fabio.  The interaction with Emilia was also affecting the structure of Tropical Storm Fabio.  Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Fabio’s circulation.  Bands in the western part of Tropical Storm Fabio consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Outflow from Tropical Storm Emilia was inhibiting upper level divergence to the south and west of Tropical Storm Fabio,

The interactions between the two tropical storms was also affecting the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Fabio.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the eastern side of Fabio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the eastern half of Fabio.

It is possible that the larger circulation around Tropical Storm Emilia could absorb the smaller circulation of Tropical Storm Fabio.  The circulation around Fabio will continue to disrupt part of the circulation in the northern part of Tropical Storm Emilia.  Emilia may not intensify much during the interactions between the two storms.

Tropical Storm Emilia will move through an environment that is otherwise favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Emilia will move move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   It will move under an axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge.  There will be little vertical wind shear except for the shear caused by the outflow from Tropical Storm Fabio.  Tropical Storm Emilia is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Emilia could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Emilia will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The interaction with Tropical Storm Fabio is likely to pull Emilia toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Emilia will move farther away from Baja California.  Emilia is likely to be steered toward the west-northwest by the high pressure system after it absorbs Tropical Storm Fabio.

Tropical Storm Fabio Forms Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Fabio formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 106.9°W which put the center about 335 miles (540 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Fabio was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico strengthened on Monday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Fabio.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Fabio’s circulation.  However, the distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Fabio was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Fabio’s circulation.  Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Fabio consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Fabio generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Fabio.  The winds in the other parts of Fabio’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fabio will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fabio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.   It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fabio’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear may not be enough to prevent intensification. The circulation around Fabio could interact with the circulation around Tropical Storm Emilia.  Tropical Storm Fabio could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fabio is currently being steered by the circulation around Tropical Storm Emilia.  Fabio is forecast to be steered toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fabio will move farther away from Mexico.  There is a chance that the circulations around Fabio and Tropical Storm Emilia could merge into a single circulation.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storms Carlotta, Daniel and Emilia were spinning over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 127.2°W which put the center about 1125 miles (1805 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Carlotta was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 127.7°W which put the center about 1265 miles (2035 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Daniel was moving toward the northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 114.1°W which put the center about 640 miles (1035 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Emilia was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

 

 

Carlotta Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Carlotta weakened to a tropical storm over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 125.0°W which put the center about 990 miles (1595 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Carlotta was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Former Hurricane Carlotta weakened to a tropical storm on Sunday when it moved over cooler water in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California.  Many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Carlotta weakened or dissipated on Sunday.  Even though the circulation around Carlotta weakened, it still appeared well organized in visible satellite images.  Numerous bands of showers, and low and middle clouds were revolving around the center of Carlotta’s circulation.  However, the showers near the center of Carlotta were too shallow to generate upper level divergence that could pump mass away from the tropical storm.  Thus, convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere caused the surface pressure to increase.

Tropical Storm Carlotta will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Carlotta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  It will move near the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Carlotta is likely to continue to weaken slowly as it moves over the cool water.

Tropical Storm Carlotta will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Carlotta toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Carlotta will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Daniel meandered west of Tropical Storm Carlotta and Tropical Depression Five-E formed south of Baja California.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located at latitude 13.4°N and longitude 129.9°W which put the center about 1465 miles (2355 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Daniel was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 113.2°W which put the center about 555 miles (890 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The tropical depression was moving toward the south at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Hurricane Carlotta Churns West

Hurricane Carlotta churned toward the west over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Carlotta was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 121.9°W which put the center about 810 miles (1300 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Carlotta was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Hurricane Carlotta started to weaken slowly on Saturday night when it moved over cooler water.  Thunderstorms in Hurricane Carlotta did not rise as high into the atmosphere.  Even though Carlotta started to weaken, its circulation was well organized.  A small circular eye was still present at the center of Hurricane Carlotta.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Carlotta’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Carlotta still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Carlotta was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Carlotta’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Carlotta.

Hurricane Carlotta will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Carlotta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  It will move near the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Carlotta is likely to continue to weaken slowly as it moves over even cooler water.

Hurricane Carlotta will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Carlotta toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Carlotta will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Daniel formed west of Hurricane Carlotta.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 130.5°W which put the center about 1540 miles (2475 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Daniel was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Carlotta Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Carlotta intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Friday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Carlotta was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 115.2°W which put the center about 455 miles (730 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Carlotta was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Carlotta strengthened to a hurricane on Friday morning.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Carlotta’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Carlotta.  Storms near the center of Carlotta’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Carlotta was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Carlotta’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Carlotta.

Hurricane Carlotta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Carlotta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move near the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Carlotta will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Carlotta will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest U.S. and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Carlotta toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Carlotta will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Carlotta Forms Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Carlotta formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 108.0°W which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Carlotta was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico strengthened on Wednesday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Carlotta.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Carlotta exhibited much more organization on Wednesday afternoon.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Carlotta’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Carlotta began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta.

Tropical Storm Carlotta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Carlotta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Carlotta will intensify during the next 36 hours.  Carlotta could strengthen to a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Carlotta will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest U.S. and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Carlotta toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Carlotta will remain far south of Baja California.

Bud Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Bud weakened to a tropical depression on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Bud was located at latitude 19.2°N and longitude 120.5°W which put the center about 730 miles (1175 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Bud was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Bud weakened to a tropical depression over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Friday.  Bud moved over cooler water where the air was also cooler and more stable.  The cooler, more stable environment caused all of the thunderstorms in Bud’s circulation to dissipate.  The bands revolving around the center of Tropical Depression Bud consisted entirely of showers and lower clouds.  When the thunderstorms dissipated, Bud stopped producing upper level divergence.  When the upper level divergence stopped, the surface pressure increased.

Tropical Depression Bud will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Bud will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  Tropical Depression Bud will remain in a cooler, more stable environment.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest U.S. and northern Mexico.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bud’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.   The cool, stable environment and the vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Depression Bud to continue to weaken.

Tropical Depression Bud will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bud toward the west during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Bud will move farther away from Baja California.