Tropical Storm Fernanda Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Fernanda formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 114.0°W which put it about 610 miles (980 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Fernanda was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California strengthened on Saturday night and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Fernanda. The circulation around Tropical Storm Fernanda was organizing steadily. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern side of the center of Fernanda’s circulation. More thunderstorms also formed near the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Fernanda’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fernanda will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fernanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Fernanda will intensify during the next 24 hours. Fernanda could strengthen to a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Fernanda will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fernanda toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fernanda will move farther away from Baja California.

Typhoon Lan Moves Toward Honshu

Typhoon Lan moved toward Honshu on Friday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Lan was located at latitude 28.7°N and longitude 141.5°E which put it about 485 miles (785 km) south-southeast of Tokyo, Japan. Lan was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Typhoon Lan was weakening on Friday night. The inner of a rainband wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall and a larger, outer eyewall formed. The formation of concentric eyewalls was disrupting the low level convergence into the inner eyewall and the inner eyewall was weakening. Since the strongest winds were occurring in the inner eyewall, the maximum wind speed decreased when the inner eyewall weakened. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls. Storms around the concentric eyewalls generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Typhoon Lan. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Lan was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.9.

Typhoon Lan will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Lan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Typhoon Lan is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours even though it will be in a favorable environment. The maximum wind speed is likely to continue to decrease as the inner eyewall dissipates.

Typhoon Lan will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Lan toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Lan will approach Honshu in less than 72 hours. Lan is likely to be a typhoon when it approaches Honshu.

Hurricane Dora Moves Across the International Date Line

Hurricane Dora moved across the International Date Line on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Dora was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 179.4°E which put it about 860 miles (1390 km) south of Midway Island. Dora was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Hurricane Dora was weakening as it moved across the International Date Line on Friday night. Dora was moving under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Central Pacific Ocean. The ridge was producing southerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Dora’s circulation. Those winds were causing the vertical wind shear to increase and the wind shear was causing Hurricane Dora to weaken.

There still was a small eye at the center of Hurricane Dora. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dora’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Dora was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Dora. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.8.

Hurricane Dora will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Dora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear will cause Hurricane Dora to weaken during the next 24 hours. Dora could weaken quickly even though it is over warm water, because it is such a small hurricane.

Hurricane Dora will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Central Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dora toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Dora could be east of Wake Island in 48 hours.

Typhoon Lan Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Lan rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Western North Pacific Ocean south of Japan on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Lan was located at latitude 27.1°N and longitude 142.8°E which put it about 615 miles (995 km) south-southeast of Tokyo, Japan. Lan was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 936 mb.

Typhoon Lan intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday. A circular eye with a diameter of 28 miles (45 km) developed at the center of Lan’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Lan. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon in all directions. The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Lan increased when Lan intensified rapidly on Thursday. Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Lan’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Lan was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size (HWISI) was 39.1. Typhoon Lan was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Typhoon Lan will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Lan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Lan is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours unless the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall. If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Typhoon Lan to weaken.

Typhoon Lan will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Lan toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Lan will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Chichi Jima during the next 24 hours. Typhoon Lan could approach Honshu in four days.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Storm Khanun produced gusty winds and locally heavy rain over South Korea. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Khanun was located at latitude 38.9°N and longitude 127.0°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) north-northeast of Seoul, South Korea. Khanun was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Hurricane Dora Passes South of Johnston Island

Hurricane Dora passed south of Johnston Island early on Thursday. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Dora was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 169.8°W which put it about 320 miles (510 km) south of Johnston Island. Dora was moving toward the west at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

The structure of Hurricane Dora showed signs of changing early on Thursday. The eye at the center of Dora’s circulation got smaller and the eye was more difficult to see on infrared satellite images. Several new bands of thunderstorms developed in the eastern and northern parts of Hurricane Dora. Dora was still a powerful hurricane. Storms near the center of Dora generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Dora increased a little as its structure began to change. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Dora’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.2. Hurricane Dora was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley hits southwest Florida in 2004.

Hurricane Dora will move through an environment that will be favorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Dora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Dora could be starting an eyewall replacement cycle. If an eyewall replacement cycle is beginning, then Dora is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours, even though the hurricane will be in a favorable environment. Since the circulation around Hurricane Dora is so small, any changes in the environment will have large effects on the intensity of Dora.

Hurricane Dora will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dora toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Dora will be move west of the International Date Line on Friday.

Tropical Storm Khanun Hits South Korea

Tropical Storm Khanun hit South Korea on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Khanun was located at latitude 35.5°N and longitude 128.4°E which put it about 20 miles (30 km) south-southeast of Chinhae, South Korea. Khanun was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Storm Khanun hit the southern coast of South Korea on Wednesday night. The center of Khanun made landfall near Busan and Chinhae. Tropical Storm Khanun brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern half of South Korea. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (285 km) from the center of Khanun’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Khanun will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Khanun toward the north-northwest. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Khanun will be near Seoul in less than 12 hours. Khanun will continue to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain in South Korea on Thursday. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Storm Lan intensified to a typhoon. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Lan was located at latitude 25.4°N and longitude 143.7°E which put it about 165 miles (265 km) east of Iwo To. Lan was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb. Typhoon Lan is forecast to move toward Honshu and to strengthen.

Hurricane Dora Passes South of Hawaii

Hurricane Dora passed south of Hawaii on Tuesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Dora was located at latitude 11.4°N and longitude 160.1°W which put it about 700 miles (1125 km) south-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. Dora was moving toward the west at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Hurricane Dora changed very little on Tuesday. The structure of Dora continued to be very symmetrical. An eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was still at the center of Hurricane Dora. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dora’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Dora did not change much on Tuesday either. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Dora’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.0.

Hurricane Dora will move through an environment that will be favorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Dora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Dora has been in equilibrium with its environment during the past 24 hours. The intensity of Dora may not change much during the next 24 hours. Since the circulation around Hurricane Dora is so small, any changes in the environment will have large effects on the intensity of Dora.

Hurricane Dora will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dora toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Dora will be near Johnston Island on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Khanun Brings Wind and Rain to Kyushu

Tropical Storm Khanun brought wind and rain to Kyushu on Tuesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Khanun was located at latitude 31.2°N and longitude 129.1°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) west-southwest of Kagoshima, Japan. Khanun was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Khanun brought winds and rain to Kyushu on Tuesday. There was an elliptical area of relatively clear skies at the center of Khanun’s circulation. A broken ring of thunderstorms with a diameter of 70 miles (110 km) surrounded the relatively clear area. The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Khanun. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Khanun’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Khanun will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Khanun will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Khanun could intensify a little during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Khanun will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Khanun toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Khanun will make landfall in South Korea in less than 24 hours. Khanun will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to South Korea. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Khanun will continue to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain in Kyushu during the next 24 hours.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Lan intensified east of Iwo To. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Lan was located at latitude 24.4°N and longitude 146.6°E which put it about 335 miles (540 km) east of Iwo To. Lan was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Hurricane Dora Moves Southeast of Hawaii

Hurricane Dora moved southeast of Hawaii on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Dora was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 152.3°W which put it about 565 miles (905 km) south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Dora was moving toward the west at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Hurricane Dora weakened slightly on Monday. The structure of Dora continued to be very symmetrical. An eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Hurricane Dora. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dora’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Dora increased a little on Monday. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Dora’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.0.

Hurricane Dora will move through an environment that will be favorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Dora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26.5°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Dora could move into a region where the air is a little drier. Since the circulation around Hurricane Dora is so small, any changes in the environment will have large effects on the intensity of Dora. Hurricane Dora could weaken a little more during the next 24 hours because of the drier air.

Hurricane Dora will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dora toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Dora will pass south of Hawaii on Tuesday.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Eugene weakened west of Baja California on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Eugene was located at latitude 25.1°N and longitude 120.4°W which put it about 680 miles (1095 km) west-northwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Eugene was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Khanun Moves Toward Kyushu

Tropical Storm Khanun started to move toward Kyushu on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Khanun was located at latitude 29.1°N and longitude 130.7°E which put it about 195 miles (315 km) south of Kagoshima, Japan. Khanun was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Storm Khanun weakened on Monday. There still were no thunderstorms near the center of Khanun’s circulation. A large, mostly clear area was at the center of Tropical Storm Khanun. There were bands of showers and lower clouds within the mostly clear area. A broken ring of thunderstorms with a diameter of 90 miles (145 km) surrounded the mostly clear area. The strongest winds were occurring in the broken ring of storms. Storms in the ring generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. There were also bands of showers and thunderstorms outside the broken ring. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Khanun.

Tropical Storm Khanun will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Khanun will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. If Tropical Storm Khanun intensifies during the next 24 hours, it is likely to strengthen slowly, because of the lack of thunderstorms in the inner core of its circulation. If thunderstorms form closer to the center of Khanun’s circulation, then it could start to intensify a little faster.

Tropical Storm Khanun will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Khanun toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, The center of Tropical Storm Khanun will be west of Kyushu in 24 hours. Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Khanun will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain in Kyushu. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Lan formed southeast of Japan. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Lan was located at latitude 24.6°N and longitude 148.8°E which put it about 485 miles (780 km) south of Kagoshima, Japan. Lan was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.