Tag Archives: Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Moves Northeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Danilo moved northeast of Rodrigues on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 66.2°E which put it about 215 miles (350 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues. Danilo was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo continued to be affected by drier. Thunderstorms became more numerous for a time on Thursday and then those storms weakened during Thursday night. A few new thunderstorms began to develop on Friday morning. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Danilo. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) in the southern side of Danilo. Winds in the northern half of the tropical cyclone were weaker than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next two days. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The drier air around Danilo will continue to inhibit intensification of the tropical cyclone. If the recent increase in thunderstorms persists, then Tropical Cyclone Danilo could intensify a little during the next 24 hours. If the drier air causes those thunderstorms to dissipate, then Danilo could weaken to the equivalent of a tropical depression.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Danilo toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo will pass north of Rodrigues during the next 12 hours. Since the most of the thunderstorms and the strongest winds are in the southern half of the circulation, Danilo will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues. Tropical Cyclone Danilo could approach Mauritius and La Reunion in less than 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Weakens South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Dailo weakened south of Diego Garcia on Wednesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 74.0°E which put it about 665 miles (1070 km) south of Diego Garcia. Danilo was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Northerly winds carried dry air from Asia across the Indian Ocean and some of the dry air was pulled into the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo. The dry air mixed with the moister air in the eyewall and rainbands, which caused the thunderstorms in those regions to weaken. When the thunderstorms weakened, downdrafts that transported stronger winds to the surface also weakened. The eye and eyewall at the center of circulation dissipated. Bands in the northern half of Danilo consisted of showers and lower clouds. Some thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Danilo. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak under the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. If the flow of drier air diminishes, then Tropical Cyclone Danilo could strengthen again. However, if the flow of drier air remains strong, then intensification is unlikely. Slight intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will steer Danilo toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo could be north of Rodrigues in 60 hours. Danilo could approach Mauritius and La Reunion in about four days.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Intensifies to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Danilo intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 76.4°E which put it about 675 miles (1090 km) south of Diego Garcia. Danilo was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo intensified south of Diego Garcia on Monday night. After the circulation around Danilo fully absorbed the circulation of a tropical depression, the tropical cyclone began intensify again. An eye at the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was evident on microwave satellite images. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Danilo. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak under the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Danilo is very likely to intensify during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will steer Danilo toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo could be northeast of Rodrigues in four days. Danilo could approach Mauritius and La Reunion during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane Forms Northeast of La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Chalane formed over the South Indian Ocean northeast of La Reunion on Thursday. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 58.2°E which put it about 410 miles (665 km) north-northeast of La Reunion. Chalane was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system northeast of La Reunion strengthened on Thursday and the system was designated at Tropical Cyclone Chalane. The circulation around Chalane was still organizing. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Chalane was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands southeast of the center of circulation. The strongest winds were occurring in those rainbands. Bands in other parts of Chalane consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms southeast of the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the south of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Chalane will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification during the next 12 hours. Chalane will move into an area where the upper level winds will be weaker on Friday and it could strengthen more.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move south of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Chalane toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Chalane will pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion. Chalane could approach northern Madagascar in about 48 hours. Tropical Cyclone Chalane will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of northern Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Herold Brings Wind, Rain to Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Herold brought wind and rain to Rodrigues on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herold was located at latitude 21.4°S and longitude 64.1°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) south-southeast of Port Mathurin, Mauritius.  Herold was moving toward the southeast at 21 m.p.h. (34 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Herold passed west of Rodrigues on Tuesday, but it came close enough to that island to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  A weather station at the Plaine Corail airport on Rodrigues reported a wind gust of 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).

Although Tropical Cyclone Herold began to weaken on Tuesday.  It remained strong enough to generate wind gusts to hurricane/typhoon force over parts of Rodrigues.  Microwave satellite imagery indicated the there was still an eye at the center of Herold, although the eye was not evident on conventional infrared images.  The eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Herold will continue to weaken during the next several days.  An upper level trough near Madagascar and an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will interact to produce strong northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Herold.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear and they will cause the tropical cyclone to weaken.

The upper level trough and ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Herold toward the southeast.  On its anticipated track Herold will move quickly away from Rodrigues.  Weather conditions on that island will gradually improve as Tropical Cyclone Herold moves farther away.

Tropical Cyclone Herold Passes North of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Herold passed north of Mauritius on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herold was located at latitude 17.3°S and longitude 57.6°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Herold was moving toward the east-southeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Herold remained well organized on Monday.  Microwave satellite imagery indicated that there was an eye at the center of circulation, but the eye was not visible on conventional satellite images.  The eye was surround by a narrow ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Herold.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were in bands south and east of the center of circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (215 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Herold may have reached its maximum intensity.  Herold will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there will be plenty of energy in the upper layer of the South Indian Ocean to support intensification.  However, an upper level trough near Madagascar and an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will interact to produce strong northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Herold.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will likely prevent further intensification.  In fact the wind shear is likely to be strong enough to cause Herold to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough and ridge will combine to steer Tropical Cyclone Herold quickly toward the east-southeast.  On its anticipated track Herold could reach Rodrigues within 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Herold is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Port Mathurin and the rest of Rodrigues.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Gretel Speeds By New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Gretel sped by New Caledonia on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gretel was located at latitude 25.9°S and longitude 169.4°E which put it about 750 miles (1210 km) north-northwest of Auckland, New Zealand.  Gretel was moving toward the southeast at 37 m.p.h. (60 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gretel moved around the western end of high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high steered Gretel rapidly toward the southeast and the tropical cyclone sped over the Coral Sea west of New Caledonia.  Rainbands on the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Gretel brought wind and rain to portions of New Caledonia on Sunday.

An upper level ridge produced strong northwesterly winds which created strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear tilted the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gretel toward the southeast and Gretel began to weaken.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and east of the center of Gretel.  Bands in other parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The wind field around Gretel expanded when the tropical cyclone started to weaken.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gretel will continue to move rapidly toward the southeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Gretel could pass north of New Zealand in 24 to 36 hours.

Elsewhere, over the South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Herold strengthened east of Madagascar.  At 5:00 p.m EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herold was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 53.2°E which put it about 405 miles (655 km) west-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Herold was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Herold could reach Rodrigues in about 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Herold Drops Heavy Rain Over Northeast Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Herold dropped heavy rain over parts of northeast Madagascar on Saturday.  A rainband on the western side of Herold was dropping locally heavy rain over northern Madagascar from Mananara to Iharana.  At 5:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herold was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 51.2°E which put it about 545 miles (880 km) northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Herold was moving toward the east at 1 m.p.h. (2 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Herold strengthened into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday.  A large ragged circular eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) formed at the center of Herold.  A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  One strong band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of Tropical Cyclone Herold.  A second strong band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western and northern sides of Herold.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Herold will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Herold will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Herold will intensify during the next 48 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Herold has been in an area where the steering winds are weak and it has not moved very far during the past 24 hours.  A subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean will strengthen.  Herold will move around the southwestern part of the high pressure system and the high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the east-southeast.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Herold will move away from Madagascar on Sunday.  The center of Herold could pass north of Mauritius in three days.  Tropical Cyclone Herold could approach Rodrigues in 84 to 90 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Herold Forms East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Herold formed over the South Indian Ocean east of Madagascar on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herold was located at latitude 14.8°S and longitude 51.9°E which put it about 510 miles (825 km) northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Herold was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation organized quickly in an area of thunderstorms east of Madagascar on Friday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Herold.  The circulation around Herold was still organizing and the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms developed in bands northwest of the center of circulation.  Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms northwest of the center of Herold were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Herold will move through an environment that will become increasingly favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Herold is currently under a small upper level ridge centered near Madagascar.  The ridge is producing southeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing some vertical wind shear and they are probably the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  However, Tropical Cyclone Herold will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker during the weekend.  Herold will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C during that time period.  Tropical Cyclone Herold will intensify during the next several days and it could intensify rapidly once the inner core becomes better organized.  Herold is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.  It could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 72 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Herold is currently in an area where the steering currents are weak.  A subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean will strengthen during the next several days.  The western end of the subtropical high will start to steer Herold toward the east-southeast during the weekend.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Herold could be northwest of Mauritius in less than 72 hours.  Herold is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco Redevelops Near East Coast of Madagascar

After moving slowly westward across the Southwest Indian Ocean for the past few days, Tropical Cyclone Francisco redeveloped near the east coast of Madagascar on Thursday.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Francisco was located at latitude 17.9°S and longitude 50.7°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) east of Toamasina, Madagascar.  Francisco was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Strong vertical wind shear weakened Tropical Cyclone Francisco east of Rodrigues last Thursday, but the lower portion of the circulation remained intact.  The lower level circulation drifted slowly westward during the last seven days and it moved across Mauritius and La Reunion earlier the week.  More thunderstorms began to develop around the lower level circulation on Wednesday, when it moved closer to the east coast of Madagascar.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms began to reform.  Storms near the center of circulation started generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speeds began to increase.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco has exhibited greater organization in recent hours.  However, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Francisco was moving under the northern part of an upper level ridge.  The ridge was producing easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing some vertical wind shear and the shear could be responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 6 to 12 hours.  Francisco will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level ridge will still cause vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Francisco will weaken when it moves over Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The high will steer Francisco toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Francisco could make landfall on the east coast of Madagascar in about 12 hours.  Francisco will drop locally heavy rain over parts of central Madagascar.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations,