Tag Archives: Florida

Tropical Cyclone Likely to Form over Western Caribbean

A tropical cyclone is likely to form over the western Caribbean Sea during the next few days. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Invest 99L was located at latitude 12.5°N and longitude 75.4°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) north of Barranquilla, Colombia. Invest 99L was moving toward the west-northwest at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A tropical cyclone is likely to form from a tropical wave, currently designated as Invest 99L, that is over the Caribbean Sea north of Colombia. There is currently no low level center of circulation in the tropical wave. Visible satellite images were providing evidence of some rotation in the middle troposphere on Wednesday afternoon. The wave is currently in an environment that is unfavorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone. The wave is over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, an upper level low centered near the Bahamas is producing strong southwesterly winds that are blowing across the western part of the tropical wave. Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear and they are inhibiting the development of the wave. Easterly winds in the lower troposphere are pushing lower section of the tropical wave quickly toward the west-northwest, which is also inhibiting development.

The tropical wave will move into an environment more favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next several days. The upper low near the Bahamas is forecast to move toward the northwest and to weaken. When the upper low weakens, the vertical wind shear will decrease around the tropical wave. In addition, the wave is forecast to move more slowly when it reaches the western Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is indicating that there is a 50% probability that a tropical depression will form from the tropical wave in the next 48 hours. NHC is indicating there is a 80% probability that a tropical wave will form during the next five days.

The tropical wave will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer the tropical wave toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track the tropical wave will approach Nicaragua and Honduras on Thursday. The system could be near the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday evening. It could move over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. The conditions over the Gulf of Mexico could be favorable for intensification during the weekend. The Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are near 30°C. An upper level ridge is forecast to be over the Gulf. The upper level winds will be weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. If Invest 99L is in the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend, it could strengthen to a hurricane. If it develops into a hurricane with a well formed inner core, then a period of rapid intensification could occur.

Reconnaissance planes are tentatively scheduled to begin to investigate the tropical wave on Thursday afternoon, if necessary. Invest 99L has the potential to pose a serious threat to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida should monitor progress of the system.

Tropical Storm Fred Makes Landfall in Northwest Florida

Tropical Storm Fred made landfall on the coast of Northwest Florida near Cape San Blas on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 29.9°N and longitude 85.3°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northwest of Apalachicola Florida. Fred was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to the Stienhatchee River, Florida.

The National Hurricane Center stated that Tropical Storm Fred made landfall on the coast of Northwest Florida near Cape San Blas, which is about 25 miles (40 km) west of Apalachicola. The maximum sustained wind speed at the time of landfall was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and the minimum surface pressure was 994 mb. Fred was dropping heavy rain over parts of northwest Florida and southeast Alabama. There were reports of flash floods in some locations. Tropical Storm Fred was also causing a storm surge along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico where the wind was pushing the water toward the shore. A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Yankeetown, Florida.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Fred toward the north-northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fred will be over northern Georgia on Tuesday afternoon. Fred could be over West Virginia by Wednesday. Tropical Storm Fred will weaken steadily as it moves farther inland. However, Fred will move through a very moist environment and it will drop heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. Rain will spread over western Georgia on Monday evening. Flash Flood Watches have been issued for parts of northwest Florida, southeast Alabama, western and northern Georgia, southeastern Tennessee and western North Carolina. Tropical Storm Fred could also cause sporadic power outages as it moves inland.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Grace was dropping heavy rain on parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and former Tropical Depression Eight strengthened to Tropical Storm Henri southeast of Bermuda.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 72.4°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti. Grace was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas and Camaguey. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the entire coast of Haiti and for Jamaica. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cinefuegos, Matanzas and Isla de la Juventud.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 31.0°N and longitude 62.9°W which put it about 145 miles (2305 km) southeast of Bermuda. Henri was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Fred Strengthens on Approach to Northwest Florida

Tropical Storm Fred strengthened as it approach the coast of Northwest Florida on Monday morning. At 8:30 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 28.7°N and longitude 85.6°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of Apalachicola Florida. Fred was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Wakulla/Jefferson County Line to Navarre, Florida.

A reconnaissance plane sampling Tropical Storm Fred on Monday morning found that Fred was intensifying. Satellite and radar images showed that Tropical Storm Fred was developing a structure that is typical of tropical storms. Radar images also showed that the inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the center of Fred and a small eye might be forming at the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Fred. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The distribution of thunderstorms and the wind field around Fred continued to be asymmetrical. The strong thunderstorms were around the center of circulation and in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fred. Bands in the western half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were also in the eastern half of Fred. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) on the eastern side of the circulation. Winds in the much of western half of Fred were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Fred will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge centered near Cuba. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Fred from intensifying. Tropical Storm Fred is likely to continue to intensify gradually during the next few hours.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fred toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fred will make landfall on the coast of Northwest Florida between Apalachicola and Panama City in a few hours. Fred will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Northwest Florida, southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. Flash Flood Watches have been issued for some of those areas. Tropical Storm Fred could also cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along portions of the coast. The part of the coast around the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is very vulnerable to storm surges. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Yankeetown, Florida. Thunderstorms in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fred could produce tornadoes.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Grace was passing south of Hispaniola and Tropical Depression Eight was slowly getting better organized east of Bermuda.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 70.9°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti. Grace was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the entire coast of the Dominican Republic and the entire coast of Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Jamaica.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 31.7°N and longitude 62.8°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) east-southeast of Bermuda. The tropical depression was moving toward the south at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (505km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Fred Gets a Little Stronger

Tropical Storm Fred got a little stronger on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 27.3°N and longitude 85.9°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south of Panama City, Florida. Fred was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Wakulla/Jefferson County Line to Navarre, Florida.

Tropical Storm Fred strengthened gradually on Sunday night. Upper level divergence pumped mass away from the tropical storm and the minimum surface pressure decreased to 999 mb. The decrease in pressure generated more force and the wind speed increased to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The distribution of thunderstorms and the wind field around Tropical Storm Fred remained asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Fred. The strongest winds were also occurring on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fred. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) on the eastern side of Fred. The winds in the western half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fred will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Fred will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge centered near Cuba. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Fred from intensifying. Tropical Storm Fred is likely to continue to intensify gradually during the next 18 hours.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fred toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fred will approach the coast of Northwest Florida on Monday afternoon. Fred will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Northwest Florida. Tropical Storm Fred could also cause a storm surge of up to six feet (1.8 meters) along portions of the coast. The part of the coast around the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is very vulnerable to storm surges. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Yankeetown, Florida.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Grace weakened to a tropical depression as it passed south of Puerto Rico and Tropical Depression Eight formed east-northeast of Bermuda. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 68.6°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Grace was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the entire coast of the Dominican Republic and the entire coast of Haiti.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 33.2°N and longitude 62.7°W which put it about 135 miles (220 km) east-northeast of Bermuda. The tropical depression was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1014 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Fred Strengthens Back to a Tropical Storm

Former Tropical Storm Fred strengthened back to a tropical storm over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 26.1°N and longitude 84.9°W which put it about 335 miles (540 km) south-southeast of Pensacola, Florida. Fred was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Wakulla/Jefferson County Line to Navarre, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect from the portion of the coast from Navarre, Florida to the Alabama/Florida border.

Data from a reconnaissance plane on Sunday morning indicated that a low level center of circulation had redeveloped in Tropical Storm Fred. The circulation around Fred was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fred and the strongest winds were occurring in those bands. Bands in the western half of Fred consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Fred. The winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fred will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fred will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move between an upper level low over the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge centered over Cuba. The upper low and the ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Fred from intensifying. Tropical Storm Fred is likely to intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fred toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fred will approach the coast of Northwest Florida on Monday. Fred will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Northwest Florida. Tropical Storm Fred could also cause a storm surge of up to six feet (1.8 meters) along portions of the coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Grace was passing south of Puerto Rico. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 66.0°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) south of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Grace was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (56 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico including Culebra and Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Samana, Dominican Republic to the southern border with Haiti. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the entire coast of Haiti and from Samana, Dominican Republic to the northern border with Haiti.

Tropical Storm Grace Brings Wind and Rain to Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Grace brought wind and rain to the Lesser Antilles on Saturday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 62.4°W which put it about 170 miles (280 km) east-southeast of St. Croix. Grace was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (56 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico including Culebra and Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Martin, St.Bathelemy and St. Maarten. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Caucedo to Samana, Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cabo Caucedo, Dominican Republic to the southern border with Haiti and from Samana, Dominican Republic to the northern border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the entire coast of Haiti.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Grace was not very well organized on Saturday evening. There was a broad low level center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Grace. Bands on the eastern side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere were pushing the lower part of Tropical Storm Grace to the west of the middle and upper parts of the circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) on the northern side of Grace. Winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Grace will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Grace will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. The winds in the lower levels could weaken a little and there could be a little less vertical wind shear. If the wind shear decreases, it could allow Tropical Storm Grace to become better organized.

Tropical Storm Grace will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Grace toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Grace could approach Puerto Rico by Sunday afternoon. Grace could approach the Dominican Republic on Sunday night.

Elsewhere, the remnants of former Tropical Depression Fred were slowly reorganizing northwest of Cuba. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of former Tropical Depression Fred was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 84.3°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) west-northwest of Havana, Cuba. The remnants of Fred were moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

The remnants of former Tropical Depression Fred are forecast to reorganize on Sunday and to strengthen back to a tropical storm. Fred is forecast to move toward the northern Gulf Coast. Watches and warnings could be issued for a portion of the coast on Sunday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Prompts Watches for Leeward Islands

A threat from Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for some of the Leeward Islands on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 49.3°W which put it about 840 miles (1350 km) east of the Leeward Islands. The potential tropical cyclone was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Saba and St. Eustatius.

The National Hurricane Center designated a tropical disturbance east of the Leeward Islands as Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven on Friday morning in order to be able to issue watches for the system. The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven was still in the early stages of organizing on Friday morning. There was not a well defined low level center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the western side of the tropical disturbance. There were few thunderstorms in the eastern side of the disturbance.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next several days. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. The disturbance will move through a region where the winds will blow from the east at all levels in the troposphere. The winds near the surface could be stronger near the surface, which could cause some vertical wind shear in the lower levels. The shear might not be too strong and a tropical cyclone is likely to form during the next 48 hours.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical disturbance toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will approach the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday night. It could be near Puerto Rico by Sunday night.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Fred was moving across central Cuba. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 78.4°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) northeast of Moron, Cuba. Fred was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Ocean Reef, Florida including Florida Bay. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Sancti Spiritis, Villa Clara, Ciego de Avila and Camaguey.

The center of Tropical Depression Fred was moving west-northwest across central Cuba on Friday morning. An upper level low centered over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico was causing westerly winds that were blowing across the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear and the increased friction over land were preventing Tropical Depression Fred from strengthening. The upper level low is forecast to weaken during the weekend and Fred could intensify to a tropical storm once the center moves past Cuba. Tropical Depression Fred will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean and it could move over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.

Tropical Depression Fred Prompts Watches for Florida Keys and Southwest Florida

The forecast for Tropical Depression Fred prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue Tropical Storm Watches for the Florida Keys and the coast of Southwest Florida. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 75.3°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east of Holguin, Cuba. Fred was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was also issued for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Ocean Reef, Florida including Florida Bay. Tropical Storm Watches remained in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Holguin, Las Tunas and Granma.

Tropical Depression Fred was spinning just to the north of eastern Cuba on Thursday afternoon. The circulation around Fred was significantly weaker after its passage over mountains in the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A distinct low level rotation was evident on visible satellite images, but there were not a lot of thunderstorms near the center of circulation. New thunderstorms appeared to be developing in bands on the southeastern side of Tropical Depression Fred. Bands in the other parts of Fred consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Fred will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Fred will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southeastern part of an upper low over Florida. The upper low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification. The southern part of the circulation around Tropical Depression Fred will pass over Cuba. The friction will be greater where the air flows over land and that will also inhibit intensification. Tropical Depression Fred could slowly strengthen if the center stays over the warm water north of Cuba, but intensification is likely to be gradual.

Tropical Depression Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Fred toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. Fred will move more toward the northwest during the weekend, when it gets closer to the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Fred will move near the northern coast of Cuba during the next 24 hours. Fred could approach the Florida Keys by Saturday morning. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Keys. Fred is likely to move over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Fred Makes Landfall in Dominican Republic

Tropical Storm Fred made landfall on the coast of the Dominican Republic on Wednesday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 70.1°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) west of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Fred was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Palenque, Dominican Republic to the northern border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Gonaives, Haiti to the northern border with the Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba and Guantanamo.

The center of Tropical Storm Fred made landfall on the south coast of the Dominican Republic west of Santo Domingo on Wednesday afternoon. Fred became better organized and a little stronger prior to making landfall. A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern and northern sides of the center of Tropical Storm Fred. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm and the surface pressure decreased slightly. The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Fred. At the time of landfall winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Fred’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Fred toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipate track Tropical Storm Fred will move across the western part of the Dominican Republic and northern Haiti during the next 24 hours. Fred will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur in some locations.

Mountains in the Dominican Republic and Haiti will significantly disrupt the low level circulation of Tropical Storm Fred. Fred is likely to weaken to a tropical depression during the next 12 hours. The circulation of Tropical Storm Fred in the middle troposphere could survive passage over those mountains. The center of Tropical Storm Fred will move northwest of Haiti on Thursday. The Sea Surface Temperatures of the water northwest of Haiti are near 29°C. If the middle level circulation of Fred survives, it could spin up a new low level center of circulation when it moves back over the warm water. An upper level low near Florida will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and they will inhibit re-intensification of Tropical Storm Fred. If the center of Fred remains north of Cuba, it could strengthen back to a tropical storm. Fred could approach the Florida Keys and South Florida on Friday. It could move over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.

Possible Development near Southeast U.S.

A low pressure system could develop near the coast of the Southeast U.S. during the next 48 hours. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of a developing low pressure system currently designated as Invest 90L was located at latitude 31.3°N and longitude 79.3°W which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east of Brunswick, Georgia. It was moving toward the east-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1017 mb.

Early morning visible satellite images appeared to show that a low pressure system was forming along a nearly stationary front off the coast of the southeast U.S. More thunderstorms were forming in the developing low pressure system and some rotation was evident in satellite loops. Thunderstorms appeared to be organizing into bands. The southern end of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. was producing westerly that were blowing across the top of the developing low pressure system. Those winds were causing moderated vertical wind shear. The upper level winds were also inhibiting the development of thunderstorms on the western side of the developing low pressure system.

The low pressure system will move through an environment somewhat favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. The upper level trough will move northeast of the low pressure system on Saturday and the upper level winds will weaken. An upper level low east of the Bahamas could enhance upper level divergence to the southeast of the developing low pressure system. The National Hurricane Center is indicating the probability is 30% that a tropical cyclone forms during the next 48 hours. A reconnaissance plane has been tentatively tasked to investigate the system on Saturday afternoon, if necessary.