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Hurricane Marie Weakens West of Baja California

Hurricane Marie weakened west of Baja California on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Marie was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 127.9°W which put it about 1180 miles (1900 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Hurricane Marie began to move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was cooler than 26°C on Saturday evening.  Marie was unable to extract enough energy from the ocean to maintain its intensity.  The circulation around Hurricane Marie pulled cooler, more stable air around its southern side.  The rainbands in the southern half of Marie started to weaken.  The southern side of the eyewall weakened too.  Strong thunderstorms were still occurring in rainbands in the northern half of Hurricane Marie.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

Hurricane Marie will move around the western side of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S.  The high will steer Marie toward the north-northwest during the next few days.  Hurricane Marie will move over even cooler water during the next several days, which will cause it to weaken more quickly.  Marie could weaken to a tropical depression by the middle of next week.  Eventually, some of the moisture in Hurricane Marie could be transported over California by the end of next week.

Tropical Storm Gamma Brings Wind and Rain to Yucatan

Tropical Storm Gamma brought wind and rain to the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 87.6°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) north-northwest of Tulum, Mexico.  Gamma was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Allen to Cancun, Mexico including Cozumel.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Punta Herrero to Punta Allen and from Cancun to Dzilam, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya and from Dzilam to Progreso, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Gamma made landfall on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near Tulum around midday on Saturday.  Gamma strengthened quickly over the warm water in the Northwest Caribbean Sea in the hours prior to landfall.  An eye was beginning to form at the center of Tropical Storm Gamma at the time of landfall.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the developing eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Gamma.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Gamma will weaken while the center of circulation moves over land.  When Gamma emerges over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, it will move into an environment favorable for intensification.  Gamma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will be under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Gamma.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but they are not likely to be strong enough to keep Gamma from strengthening when it gets back over water.

Tropical Storm Gamma will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Gamma toward the north-northwest during next 24 hours.  A large, cool high pressure system over the eastern U.S. will block the northward movement of Tropical Storm Gamma when it reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico.  That high pressure system will steer Gamma slowly toward the west during the earl part of next week.

On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Gamma will move across northern Quintana Roo and the state of Yucatan.  Gamma will cause gusty winds along the eastern and northern coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Tropical Storm Gamma will drop heavy rain over parts of Quintana Roo and Yucatan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

TD 25 Strengthens into Tropical Storm Gamma

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters’ reconnaissance plane found Friday evening that former Tropical Depression 25 had strengthened into Tropical Storm Gamma.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located at latitude 18.8°N and longitude 85.8°W which put it about 135 miles (220 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.  Gamma was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Punta Herrero tp Puerto Costa Maya and from Cabo Catoche to Dzilam, Mexico.

A reconnaissance airplane found winds to tropical storm force and a lower minimum surface pressure when it started sampling former Tropical Depression Twentyfive.  The National Hurricane  Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Gamma based on data from the plane. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern parts of the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Gamma.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Gamma will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Gamma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Gamma will strengthen during the next 18 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Gamma will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Gamma could approach the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.  Gamma will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Gusty winds and heavy rain could occur in the area around Cancun and Cozumel.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Depression 25 Forms over Northwest Caribbean

Tropical Depression Twentyfive formed over the Northwest Caribbean Sea on Friday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Twentyfive was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 84.7°W which put it about 220 miles (355 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.  The depression was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the portions of the coast from Punta Herrero tp Puerto Costa Maya and from Cabo Catoche to Dzilam, Mexico.

A distinct center of circulation was evident in satellite imagery within a broader area of low pressure over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Twentyfive.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning and Tropical Storm Watches for parts of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Depression Twentyfive.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the depression.  Storms near the center of circulation started to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the depression.

Tropical Depression Twentyfive will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Twentyfive is very likely to strengthen into a tropical storm during the next 12 to 24 hours.  It could strengthen to a hurricane within 36 hours.

Tropical Depression Twentyfive will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Twentyfive could approach the Yucatan Coast on Saturday.  It will likely be a tropical storm when it approaches the coast, but it could strengthen into a hurricane by that time.  A reconnaissance plane was on its way to investigate the depression and that will provide more information about its structure and intensity.

Marie Strengthens into a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Marie strengthened into a major hurricane on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Marie was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 122.1°W which put it about 940 miles (1515 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

The circulation around Hurricane Marie was very well organized on Thursday night.  There was a small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) at the center of Marie.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Marie.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Marie.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

Hurricane Marie will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Marie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Marie is likely to strengthen on Friday.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could begin which would cause Marie to weaken.  Hurricane Marie will move over cooler water during the weekend.  Marie will extract less energy from the ocean which will cause the wind speed to decrease.

Hurricane Marie will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Marie toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Marie will move farther away from Baja California.

Marie Rapidly Strengthens Into a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Marie rapidly strengthened into a hurricane on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Marie was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 115.1°W which put it about 685 miles (1100 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The circulation around Hurricane Marie exhibited much greater organization on Wednesday afternoon.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped entirely around the center of Marie.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Marie.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the hurricane.  The circulation around Marie was small.  Winds to hurricane force only extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles from the center.

Hurricane Marie will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Marie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level wind are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Marie will continue to strengthen and it could intensify rapidly at time.  Marie could intensify into a major hurricane within 36 hours.

Hurricane Marie will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S.  The high will steer Marie toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Marie will move farther away Baja California.

Tropical Storm Marie Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Marie formed south of Baja California on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 109.5°W which put it about 645 miles (1035 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Marie was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a small low pressure system south of Baja California on Tuesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Marie.  The circulation around Marie was still organizing.  More thunderstorms were forming around the center of Tropical Storm Marie.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were also developing and the bands were revolving around the center of the tropical storm.  Storms near the center of Marie started to generate upper level divergence which began to pump mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The circulation around the Tropical Storm Marie was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Marie will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next two to three days.  Marie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Marie could intensify into a hurricane within 36 hours.  Marie could strengthen more rapidly once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall forms.  Tropical Storm Marie could intensify into a major hurricane later this week.

Tropical Storm Marie will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S.  The high will steer Marie toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Marie will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Kujira Forms West of Wake Island

Tropical Storm Kujira formed west of Wake Island on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Kujira was located at latitude 21.1°N and longitude 158.5°E which put it about 515 miles (830 km) west of Wake Island.  Kujira was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Kujira was moving around the eastern side of an upper level low.  The upper low was causing vertical wind shear which was causing the distribution of thunderstorms to be asymmetrical.  There were few thunderstorms near the center of the circulation.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands east and south of the center of Kujira.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Kujjira.  The winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Kujira will move through an environment favorable for intensification after it moves away from the upper level low.  When Kujira moves away from the upper low, the vertical wind shear will decrease.  Tropical Storm Kujira will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Kujira will intensify when the wind shear decreases.   It could strengthen into a typhoon in two or three days.

The upper level low will pull Tropical Storm Kujira toward the northwest during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Then Kujira will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Tropical Storm Kujira toward the north for 24 to 36 hours.  Kujira will eventually be steered toward the northeast when it reaches the westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Kujira will pass well to the east of Japan.

Teddy Brings Wind and Rain to Nova Scotia

Former Hurricane Teddy brought wind and rain to Nova Scotia on Wednesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located at latitude 46.0°N and longitude 61.3°W which put it about 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Port aux Basques, Newfoundland.  Teddy was moving toward the north-northeast at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the south coast of Nova Scotia from Ecum Secum to Meat Cove.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Port aux Basques to Francois, Newfoundland.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Meat Cove to Brule, Nova Scotia, for the Magdalen Islands and for Prince Edward Island.

The center of former Hurricane Teddy made landfall near Ecum Secum, Nova Scotia on Wednesday morning.  The structure of Teddy made a transition from one typical of a tropical cyclone to one more like an extratropical cyclone as it approached the coast of Nova Scotia.  The area of stronger winds expanded.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Teddy.  The heaviest rain fell over eastern Nova Scotia.  The large circulation around Teddy was producing large waves which caused water level rises and beach erosion as far away as the East Coast of the U.S.

An upper level trough over eastern North America will steer Teddy quickly toward northeast during the rest of today.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Teddy will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of southwestern Newfoundland during the next few hours.

Elswhere, former Tropical Storm Beta was dropping heavy rain over parts of Louisiana.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Beta was located at latitude 30.2°N and longitude 94.2°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) west of lake Charles, Louisiana.  Beta was moving toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h_.  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Depression Beta dropped heavy rain over southeastern Texas on Tuesday.  There were numerous reports of flooding around Houston.  Beta was moving over western Louisiana on Wednesday morning and light to moderate rain was falling over many parts of the state.  Flash Flood Watches were in effect for much of Louisiana and western Mississippi.  Beta will move slowly toward the northeast during the next 48 hours.  Moderate to heavy rain could spread over Mississippi, Tennessee, northern Alabama, western North Carolina and western Virginia.

Tropical Storm Dolphin Passes Southeast of Japan

Tropical Storm Dolphin passed southeast of Japan on Wednesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Dolphin was located at latitude 32.9°N and longitude 141.4°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Dolphin was moving toward the northeast at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

An upper level trough over eastern Asia steered Tropical Storm Dolphin quickly toward the northeast on Wednesday.  The trough carried Dolphin southeast of Tokyo.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles from the center of Dolphin.  The northern periphery of tropical storm Dolphin was bringing gustier winds to parts of the coast of Honshu.  Most of the rain falling in Tropical Storm Dolphin fell southeast of Honshu.

The upper level trough will carry Tropical Storm Dolphin east of Japan.  Although Dolphin is currently over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C, the tropical storm will soon move over cooler water.  The upper level trough and the cooler water will cause Tropical Storm Dolphin to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next several days.