Category Archives: Eastern and Central Pacific

TCs between Mexico and Hawaii

Hurricane Erick Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 2

Hurricane Erick rapidly intensified to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Wednesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Erick was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 96.3°W which put the center about 215 miles (345 km) southeast of Punta Maldonado, Mexico.    Erick was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Angel to Acapulco, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico. 

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane investigating Hurricane Erick on Wednesday afternoon found that Erick had rapidly intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) was present at the center of Erick’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Erick.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away in all directions from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The distribution of winds speeds around Hurricane Erick was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Erick’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Erick.

Hurricane Erick will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Erick will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Erick will intensify during the next 18 hours. Erick is likely to intensify rapidly.  Hurricane Erick is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane by Thursday.

Hurricane Erick will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Central America and southern Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Erick toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Erick will move toward the coast of southern Mexico.  Erick is likely to make landfall in southern Mexico between Acapulco and Punta Maldonado early on Thursday.

Hurricane Erick is likely to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall on the coast of Mexico.  Erick will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacan.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Guerrero.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Erick could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast.

Erick Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Erick intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Wednesday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Erick was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 95.7°W which put the center about 275 miles (440 km) southeast of Punta Maldonado, Mexico.   Erick was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Angel to Acapulco, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Erick intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Wednesday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of Erick’s circulation.  A small circular eye appeared to be forming at the center of Hurricane Erick.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Erick’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Erick generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease more quickly.

The distribution of wind speeds around Hurricane Erick became more symmetrical when it intensified.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Erick’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Erick.

Hurricane Erick will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erick will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Erick will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Erick could rapidly intensify at times.  Hurricane Erick could strengthen to a major hurricane by Thursday.

Hurricane Erick will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Central America and southern Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Erick toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Erick will move toward the coast of southern Mexico.  Erick is likely to make landfall in southern Mexico between Acapulco and Punta Maldonado on Thursday.

Hurricane Erick could be a major hurricane when it makes landfall on the coast of Mexico.  Erick will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacan.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Guerrero.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Storm Erick could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast.

Tropical Storm Erick Strengthens

Tropical Storm Erick strengthened on Tuesday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 94.9°W which put the center about 330 miles (535 km) southeast of Punta Maldonado, Mexico.  Erick was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Angel to Acapulco, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Erick strengthened on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Erick’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Erick.  Storms near the center of Erick generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Erick was somewhat asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western half of Erick’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Erick.

Tropical Storm Erick will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Erick will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Central America and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Erick will intensify during the next 36 hours.  Erick could rapidly intensify at times.  Tropical Storm Erick will intensify to a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Erick will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Central America and southern Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Erick toward the northwest during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Erick will move toward the coast of southern Mexico.  Erick could make landfall in southern Mexico between Acapulco and Punta Maldonado on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Erick will be a hurricane when it makes landfall on the coast of Mexico.  Erick will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacan.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Storm Erick could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast.

Tropical Storm Erick Forms, Hurricane Watch for Mexico

Tropical Storm Erick formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico early on Tuesday.  The government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Watch for the portion of the coast.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 93.8°W which put the center about 515 miles (830 km) southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  Erick was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahias de Huatulco to Punta Maldonado, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz, Mexico.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean strengthened during Monday night and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Erick.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Erick exhibited more organization on Tuesday morning.  Bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Erick’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Erick generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Erick will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Erick will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Central America and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Erick will intensify during the next 36 hours.  Erick could rapidly intensify to a hurricane by Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Erick will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Central America and southern Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Erick toward the northwest during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Erick will move toward the coast of southern Mexico.  Erick could make landfall in southern Mexico between Acapulco and Punta Maldonado on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Erick will be a hurricane when it makes landfall on the coast of Mexico.  Erick will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacan.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Storm Erick could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast.

NHC Initiates Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E

The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E was located at latitude 10.6°N and longitude 91.7°W which put the center about 610 miles (980 km) southeast of Punta Maldonado, Mexico.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

More thunderstorms developed in a low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Guatemala on Monday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) began issuing advisories on the system.  NHC designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E.

Thunderstorms formed near the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E.  Numerous thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of the low pressure system.  Thunderstorms near the center of the low pressure system began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  The low pressure system will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Central America and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E will intensify during the next 48 hours.  It will strengthen to a tropical storm on Tuesday.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E could rapidly intensify to a hurricane by Wednesday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Central America.  The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E will move toward the coast of southern Mexico.  It could make landfall in southern Mexico on Thursday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E is likely to be a hurricane when it makes landfall.  Watches and Warnings for portions of the coast of southern Mexico are likely to be issued on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Dalila Weakens

Tropical Storm Dalila weakened as it moved away from Mexico on Sunday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 107.9°W which put the center about 235 miles (380 km) west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Dalila was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Dalila weakened on Sunday when it moved over cooler water south of Baja California.  Many of the thunderstorms in Dalila’s circulation weakened when the tropical storm move over cooler water.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the western part of Tropical Storm Dalila.  Bands in the other parts of Dalila’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The thunderstorms remaining in Tropical Storm Dalila generated less upper level divergence.  More mass was converging in the lower levels of the atmosphere  which caused the surface pressure to increase.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Storm Dalila decreased as Dalila weakened.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Dalila’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Dalila will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dalila will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce east-northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dalila’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Dalila to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Dalila will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Dalila toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Dalila will continue to move farther away from the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical Storm Dalila Intensifies Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Dalila intensified over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Saturday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 104.1°W which put the center about 175 miles (285 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Dalila was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Dalila intensified over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Saturday morning.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Dalila’s circulation.   More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Dalila.  Storms near the center of Dalila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dalila was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Dalila’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Dalila will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dalila will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Dalila will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical disturbance toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Dalila will start to move a little farther away from the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Thunderstorms in bands in the northern periphery of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to coastal portions of southwestern Mexico.  The heaviest rain is likely fall in parts of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some location.

Tropical Storm Dalila Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Dalila formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 102.4°W which put the center about 205 miles (335 km) south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  Dalila was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico,

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Friday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Dalila.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Dalila’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Dalila.  Storms near the center of Dalila generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dalila was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 310 miles (500 km) from the center of Dalila’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Dalila will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dalila will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Dalila will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical disturbance toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Dalila will move a little closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico on Friday night.

Thunderstorms in bands in the northern periphery of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to coastal portions of southwestern Mexico.  The heaviest rain is likely fall in parts of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some location.

Disturbance Prompts Tropical Storm Watch for Mexico

The potential risk caused by a tropical disturbance over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean prompted the government of Mexico to issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast on Thursday afternoon.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the tropical disturbance as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 100.2°W which put the center about 450 miles (725 km) south-southeast of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  The tropical disturbance was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo, Mexico.

A tropical disturbance over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean exhibited more organization on Thursday afternoon.  Satellite loops appeared to show a counterclockwise rotation in the middle troposphere.  It was unclear if there was a well defined center of circulation at the surface.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and in the southern periphery of the tropical disturbance.  There were few thunderstorms near the broad center in the middle troposphere.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the tropical disturbance as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E and began to issue regular advisories on the system.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hour.  The tropical disturbance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge over southern Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E is likely to form into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical disturbance toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will move closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Thunderstorms in bands in the northern periphery of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to coastal portions of southwestern Mexico.  The heaviest rain is likely fall in parts of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some location.

Tropical Storms Barbara and Cosme Spin West of Mexico

Tropical Storms Barbara and Cosme were spinning over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico on Tuesday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 108.1°W which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Barbara was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Former Hurricane Barbara weakened back to a tropical storm as it moved over cooler water south of Baja California during Monday night.  Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Barbara’s circulation.  Those thunderstorms generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  However, the upper level divergence pumped away less mass than was converging in the lower level’s of Barbara’s circulation.  The accumulation of mass in the lower levels caused the surface pressure to increase.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Barbara was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Barbara’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Barbara will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Barbara will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C. It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Barbara will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours as it moves over colder water.

Tropical Storm Barbara will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Barbara toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Barbara will move slowly toward the southern end of Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Cosme was spinning south of Baja California.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 114.5°W which put the center about 605 miles (975 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Cosme was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Storm Cosme maintained its intensity during Monday night.  Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Cosme’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Cosme.  Bands in the eastern side of Cosme’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Cosme generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was almost the same as the inflow of mass in the lower level of Tropical Storm Cosme.  As a result of the balance of inflow and outflow, the surface pressure remained nearly constant.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Cosme was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Cosme’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Cosme will move through an environment slightly unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Cosme will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Cosme’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The combination of cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and some vertical wind shear will likely cause Tropical Storm Cosme to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Cosme will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Cosme toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Cosme will remain far to the south of Baja California.