Monthly Archives: October 2023

Hurricane Tammy Moves North of the Leeward Islands

Hurricane Tammy moved north of the Leeward Islands on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Tammy was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 64.0°W which put it about 190 miles (305 km) north-northwest of Anguilla. Tammy was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Hurricane Tammy maintained its intensity on Sunday as it moved north of the Leeward Islands, but Tammy was looking a little weaker on Sunday evening. An upper level trough near the east coast of the U.S. was producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tammy’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. In addition, some drier air appeared to be entering the southwestern part of Hurricane Tammy.

The effects of the strong wind shear and the drier air caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Hurricane Tammy to become asymmetrical again. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tammy’s circulation. Bands in the western and southern parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Hurricane Tammy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Tammy will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tammy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough near the east coast of the U.S. will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will inhibit intensification and Hurricane Tammy could weaken on Monday.

Hurricane Tammy will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Tammy toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Tammy will move farther north of the Leeward Islands on Monday.

Tropical Storm Norma Nears Sinaloa

The center of Tropical Storm Norma neared the coast of Sinaloa on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Norma was located at latitude 25.0°N and longitude 109.0°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) south of Los Mochis, Mexico. Norma was moving toward the east-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Huatabampito to Mazatlan, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Norma weakened on Sunday night as it neared the coast of Sinaloa. The center of Norma’s circulation was still over the warm water in the southern part of the Gulf of California. However, an upper level trough west of Baja California produced strong southwesterly winds that blew the upper part of Norma’s circulation northeast of the circulation in the lower levels. The lower part of Tropical Storm Norma consisted primarily of bands of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the eastern part of Norma’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western part of Tropical Storm Norma.

Tropical Storm Norma will make landfall on the coast of Mexico south of Topolobampo on Monday. The lower part of Norma’s circulation will weaken rapidly after it makes landfall. Isolated heavy rain could fall in Sinaloa where the wind pushes air up slopes. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Otis formed south of Mexico. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Otis was located at latitude 11.1°N and longitude 97.3°W which put it about 435 miles (705 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Otis was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb. Tropical Storm Otis could move toward Mexico during the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Tej Moves Toward Eastern Yemen

Tropical Cyclone Tej moved over the Arabian Sea toward eastern Yemen on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tej was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 54.0°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) south of Salalah, Oman. Tej was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tej appeared to go through an eyewall replacement cyclone on Sunday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the original small eye and eyewall. The inner eyewall dissipated on Sunday afternoon and a larger eye was apparent on satellite images. The new, larger eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Tej. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Tej went through an eyewall replacement cycle, its circulation was still small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Tej’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tej was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.3. Tropical Cyclone Tej was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Tej will move through an environment that will become more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tej will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Tropical Cyclone Tej will move closer to dry air over Yemen and Oman. Northerly winds in the western side of Tej’s circulation could start to pull the dry air into the tropical cyclone. The recently completed eyewall replacement cycle and the dry air could cause Tropical Cyclone Tej to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Tej will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over South Asia. The high pressure system will steer Tej toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Tej will approach the coast of eastern Yemen near Nishtun in 24 hours. Tej will bring strong winds to eastern Yemen. Tropical Cyclone Tej will also drop heavy rain on parts of eastern Yemen and western Oman. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Lola Forms North Of Vanuatu

Tropical Storm Lola formed over the South Pacific Ocean northern of Vanuatu during Saturday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lola was located at latitude 11.0°S and longitude 167.9°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) northeast of Sola, Vanuatu. Sola was moving toward the south-southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean north of Vanuatu strengthened during Saturday night and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Lola. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Lola was organizing quickly. Thunderstorms developed near the center of Lola’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Lola. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Lola’s circulation. Tropical storm force winds extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Lola.

Tropical Cyclone Lola will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Lola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Lola will intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours. Lola could intensify rapidly at times.

Tropical Cyclone Lola will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system centered northeast of New Zealand. The high pressure system will steer Lola toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Lola will move across northern Vanuatu. Lola will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Vanua Lava, Mota Lava, Mota, Ureparapara and Gaua. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Lola could cause a storm surge of seven feet (two meters) in some places.

Hurricane Tammy Passes Over Barbuda

Hurricane Tammy passed over Barbuda on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Tammy was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 61.9°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) north-northwest of Barbuda. Tammy was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Maarten, St, Martin, and St. Barthelemy. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The center of Hurricane Tammy passed directly over Barbuda on Saturday evening. Tammy produced strong gusty winds and heavy rain in Barbuda. Heavy rain was likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Tammy showed signs of weakening a little on Saturday night. Breaks appeared in the ring of thunderstorms around the center Tammy’s circulation. The distribution of thunderstorms became more asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Hurricane Tammy. Bands in the southern and western parts of Tammy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Tammy’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Hurricane Tammy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 21.0. Hurricane Tammy was capable of causing localized minor damage.

Hurricane Tammy will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tammy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the northeastern part of an upper level low over the Eastern Caribbean Sea. The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tammy’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. The wind shear could be strong enough to cause Hurricane Tammy to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Tammy will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Tammy toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Tammy will move north of the Leeward Islands on Sunday.

Hurricane Tammy will continue to produce strong winds and heavy rain in Barbuda during the next few hours. The weather conditions will start to improve in Barbuda when Tammy moves north of the Leeward Islands on Sunday. Hurricane Tammy could also bring gusty winds to Anguilla, St. Maarten, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Tej Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Tej rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Arabian Sea east-southeast of Socotra on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tej was located at latitude 11.7°N and longitude 56.3°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) east-southeast of Socotra. Tej was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tej rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Arabian Sea on Saturday. A small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) formed at the center of Tej’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Tej was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Tej’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tej was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.1. Tropical Cyclone Tej was capable of causing localized major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Tej will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tej will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Tej could continue to intensify rapidly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Tej will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over South Asia. The high pressure system will steer Tej toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Tej will be east of Socotra in 12 hours. The core of Tej’s circulation that contains the strongest winds will pass east of Socotra. Bands in the western side of Tropical Cyclone Tej will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Socotra. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Tej will approach the coast between Harrah, Yemen and Salalah, in 48 hours.

Hurricane Norma Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Baja California

Hurricane Norma brought wind and rain to the southern part of Baja California on Saturday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Norma was located at latitude 22.9°N and longitude 110.3°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Norma was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Todos Santos to Los Barriles, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Todos Santos to Santa Fe, Mexico and from Los Barriles to San Evaristo, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Topolobampo to Mazatlan, Mexico.

Hurricane Norma brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to the southern part of Baja California on Saturday afternoon. A weather station in Cabo San Lucas reported a sustained wind speed of 55 m.p.h. (89 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 m.p.h. (116 km/h). A weather radar in Cabo San Lucas showed heavy rain falling over the southern end of Baja California.

Hurricane Norma weakened as it approached the southern end of Baja California on Saturday. An upper level trough west of Baja California produced southwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Norma’s circulation. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear caused Hurricane Norma to weaken.

The center of Hurricane Norma was just offshore to the west of Cabo San Lucas on Saturday afternoon. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Norma’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.2. Hurricane Norma was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Hanna when Hanna hit south Texas in 2020.

The upper level trough west of Baja California will steer Hurricane Norma toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Norma will move across the southern end of Baja California. Norma will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Baja California during the next 18 hours. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Norma will weaken to a tropical storm while it moves across the southern end of Baja California. Norma will move across the southern part of the Gulf of California on Sunday. Norma will approach the west coast of Mexico between Topolobampo and Mazatlan on Sunday afternoon. Norma could also drop heavy rains over Sinaloa.

Tropical Cyclone Forms Over the Arabian Sea

A tropical cyclone formed over the Arabian Sea on Friday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone 05A was located at latitude 10.0°N and longitude 58.8°E which put it about 600 miles (965 km) southeast of Salalah, Oman. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone 05A organized quickly over the Arabian Sea on Friday evening. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of the tropical cyclone’s circulation. A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounded the center of circulation and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone 05A.

Tropical Cyclone 05A will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone 05A is likely to intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 05A will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over South Asia. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone 05A will move closer to Oman.

Hurricane Norma Approaches Baja California

Hurricane Norma approached the southern end of Baja California on Friday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Norma was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 109.8°W which put it about 195 miles (310 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Norma was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Todos Santos to Los Barriles, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Todos Santos to Santa Fe, Mexico and from Los Barriles to San Evaristo, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Topolobampo to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico.

Hurricane Norma was still a major hurricane as it approached the southern end of Baja California on Friday afternoon. A circular eye with a diameter of 18 miles (30 km) was at the center of Norma’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Norma. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Hurricane Norma. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Norma’s circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.4. Hurricane Norma was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Hurricane Norma will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Norma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, an upper level trough west of Baja California will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Norma’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will cause Hurricane Norma will to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Norma will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Norma toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Norma will approach the southern end of Baja California on Saturday morning. Norma will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern end of Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Norma could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters along the coast at the southern end of Baja California.

Tammy Strengthens to a Hurricane East of the Lesser Antilles

Former Tropical Storm Tammy strengthened to a hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Tammy was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 58.6°W which put it about 165 miles (265 km) east-southeast of Martinique. Tammy was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Guadeloupe, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis. Hurricane Watches were in effect for Anguilla, St. Maarten, St. Martin, and St. Baarthelemy. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Dominica, Anguilla, St. Maarten, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Saba and St. Eustatius. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Martinique and Barbados.

U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA planes flying in former Tropical Storm Tammy found that Tammy had intensified to a hurricane on Friday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) formed at the center of Hurricane Tammy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Tammy. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease on Friday morning.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Tammy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the eastern side of Tammy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of the circulation.

Hurricane Tammy will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tammy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the far eastern part of an upper level low over the Eastern Caribbean Sea. The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tammy’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Hurricane Tammy is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Tammy will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Tammy toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Tammy could be near Guadeloupe on Saturday morning.

Hurricane Tammy is likely to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the central and northern Leeward Islands. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash in some locations. Hurricane Tammy could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coasts of some of the islands.