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Harvey Weakens to Tropical Storm, Still Dropping Heavy Rain on Texas

Hurricane Harvey weakened to a tropical storm on Saturday afternoon, but it was still dropping heavy rain on parts of Texas.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located at latitude 29.1°N and longitude 97.6°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) west-northwest of Victoria, Texas.  Harvey was moving toward the north-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Baffin Bay to High Island, Texas.

The core of Hurricane Harvey moved inland over San Jose Island on Friday night.  It passed over Rockport, Texas and moved slowly north-northwest on Saturday.  The strongest wind occurred near Port Aransas, Rockport and Ingleside.  Some of the peak wind gusts were:

Port Aransas          132 m.p.h.   (213 km/h)

Copano Village       125 m.p.h.  (202 km/h)

Lamar                      110 m.p.h.  (177 km/h)

Rockport                 108 m.p.h.  (174 km/h)

Taft                            90 m.p.h.  (154 km/h)

Other than the fact that it is over land, Tropical Storm Harvey is in an environment favorable for a tropical cyclone.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Harvey has weakened during the day, but it has maintained a very symmetrical structure.  Steady rain is falling in the core of the circulation and several bands of showers and thunderstorms in the outer portions of the circulation.  Tropical Storm Harvey has already produced heavy rain in some locations.  Some current rainfall totals are:

Aushell                   15.10″       (38 cm)

Coleto Creek         12.57″       (32 cm)

Richmond                9.60″       (24 cm)

Edna                       10.06″       (25 cm)

Danbury                  7.89″        (20 cm)

Sugarland               7.56″        (19 cm)

The steering winds are weak and Tropical Storm Harvey is forecast to make a slow counterclockwise loop during the next several days.  Since Harvey will not move very much, it will continue to rain in many of the same locations.  The potential for flooding will increase as the rain continues to fall.  Some rivers and streams could experience record flood levels.

Category 4 Hurricane Harvey Makes Landfall in Texas

Category 4 Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Rockport, Texas on Friday night.  Harvey was the first Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale to officially make landfall in Texas since Hurricane Carla in 1961.  Harvey was the first Category 4 hurricane to officially make landfall in the U.S. since Hurricane Charley in 2004.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Harvey was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 97.0°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) east-northeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.  Harvey was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 938 mb.

The center of the eye of Hurricane Harvey moved across San Jose Island and it officially made landfall near Rockport, Texas.  The powerful western side of the eyewall moved over Corpus Christi Bay, Port Aransas, Ingleside and Rockport.  Those areas experienced winds of over 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The eye was over Aransas Bay and the winds were weaker in Rockport.  The wind speeds will increase again when the eastern part of the eyewall reaches those locations.  Bands of winds to tropical storm force were revolving inland outside the core of Hurricane Harvey.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Harvey at landfall was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 37.0.  The indices indicate that Hurricane Harvey is capable of producing regional extensive damage. In terms of wind speed and size Hurricane Harvey is similar to Hurricane Charley.  The HII for Charley when in made landfall in southwest Florida in 2004 was 29.9.  The HSI was 8.1 and the HWISI for Charley was 38.0.  Harvey is not quite as strong as Charley was, but Harvey is a little larger.  So, Hurricane Harvey has approximately the same potential to cause damage that Hurricane Charley had.

Hurricane Harvey completed an eyewall replacement cycle a few hours before it made landfall.  the timing of the eyewall replacement cycle meant that Hurricane Harvey had time to intensify to Category 4 before it reached the Texas coast.  The eye contracted and the wind speed increased right up until Hurricane Harvey made landfall.  Hurricane Harvey was at its maximum intensity when it made landfall.

Hurricane Harvey slowed down as it reached the coast and areas near the core of the hurricane are experiencing prolonged periods of high wind speeds.  The prolonged period of high winds will increase the damage caused by those winds.  The winds north of the center of circulation are driving the water toward the coast and a storm surge of 12 feet (4 meters) is possible in some locations.  Hurricane Harvey could stall or make a slow loop during the next several days.  In either case, Hurricane Harvey will drop very heavy rain in some places and fresh water flooding is a serious risk.

Major Hurricane Harvey Closing in on Texas Coast

Major Hurricane Harvey was closing on the Texas coast on Friday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Harvey was located at latitude 27.4°N and longitude 96.4°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.  Harvey was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Mansfield to Sargent, Texas.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande River to Port Mansfield and from Sargent to High Island, Texas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect from Boca De Catan, Mexico to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.

Hurricane Harvey has a relatively compact circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extend out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center.  The current Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Harvey is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 32.5.

Hurricane Harvey went through an eyewall replacement cycle earlier today.  A second outer eyewall encircled the original inner eyewall.  The two concentric eyewalls temporarily interrupted the intensification of Harvey.  Most of the air began converging in the outer eyewall and the inner eyewall dissipated.  The eyewall replacement cycle resulted in Harvey becoming a slightly larger hurricane.  After the inner eyewall dissipated, the remaining outer eyewall began to contract and Harvey started to intensify again.

Hurricane Harvey will still be over the warm water of the western Gulf of Mexico for a few more hours.  So, it does have a chance to intensify further.  There is about a 25% chance that Harvey intensifies to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale before it makes landfall.

Harvey is being steered toward the northwest by a subtropical ridge located northeast of the hurricane.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Harvey will most likely make landfall on the coast of Texas between Corpus Christi and Freeport in a few hours.  The steering currents are forecast to weaken about the time Harvey makes landfall and it could meander near the coast of Texas during the weekend.  The track forecast becomes very uncertain at that time.  Some models forecast that Harvey will stall inland, while other models predict it will drift back over the Gulf of Mexico.

Based on current projections the forecast Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Harvey at landfall is 26.7.  The forecast Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 11.6 and the forecast Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) at landfall is 38.3.  Those indices indicate that Harvey could cause regional major damage in Texas.  Harvey will be stronger, but smaller, than Hurricane Ike was when Ike made landfall in Texas in 2008.  The HII for Ike was 19.2, the HSI was 22.5 and the HWISI was 41.7.  Hurricane Harvey is going to be more similar to Hurricane Charley when Charley made landfall in southwest Florida in 2004.  The HII for Charley was 29.9, the HSI was 8.1 and the HWISI was 38.0

Harvey will bring strong damaging winds to Texas.  Harvey will also cause a dangerous storm surge at the coast.  The storm surge could approach 12 feet (4 meters) in some locations.  Harvey will also drop very heavy rain, if it stalls after it moves inland.  Serious fresh water flooding is possible under that scenario.  The strong winds and flooding could also lead to widespread losses of electricity.

Hurricane Harvey Moves Closer to Texas

Hurricane Harvey moved closer to Texas on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Harvey was located at latitude 25.2°N and longitude 94.6°W which put it about 250 miles (400 km) southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.  Harvey was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Mansfield to Sargent, Texas.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect from the mouth of the Rio Grande River to Port Mansfield.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande River to Port Mansfield and from Sargent to High Island, Texas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect from Boca De Catan, Mexico to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.

Hurricane Harvey intensified rapidly for much of Thursday, but the wind speed stopped increasing Thursday evening.  The interruption of the intensification is probably only temporary.  The minimum surface pressure has continued to decrease slowly, but steadily throughout the evening.  An eye with a diameter of 18 miles (29 km) has appeared intermittently.  Although there was a continuous ring of strong thunderstorms around the eye earlier this afternoon, there has been a break in that ring this evening.  It seems as if there are strong thunderstorms at the leading edge of the primary rainband and downdrafts from those storms may be interfering with the eyewall.  The interference with the eyewall may have temporarily paused the intensification of Hurricane Harvey.

Hurricane Harvey is a small hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extend out about 25 miles from the center, primarily in the northeastern quadrant of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 105 miles (170 km) from the center.  The current Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Harvey is 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 6.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 19.3.

Hurricane Harvey will move through a very favorable environment on Friday.  Harvey will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Harvey is likely to strengthen on Friday and it could intensify rapidly again.  Harvey is likely to be a major hurricane by the time it makes landfall on the Texas coast and it has a chance to get to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Harvey is being steered toward the northwest by a subtropical ridge located northeast of the hurricane.  A general northwesterly motion is expected to continue on Friday.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Harvey would make landfall on the coast of Texas near Corpus Christi in about 36 hours.  The steering currents are forecast to weaken about the time Harvey makes landfall and it could meander near the coast of Texas during the weekend.  The track forecast becomes very uncertain at that time.

Based on current projections the forecast Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Harvey at landfall is 25.5.  The forecast Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.0 and the forecast Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) at landfall is 41.5.  Those indices indicate that Harvey could cause regional major damage in Texas.  Harvey would be stronger, but smaller, than Hurricane Ike was when Ike made landfall in Texas in 2008.  The HII for Ike was 19.2, the HSI was 22.5 and the HWISI was 41.7.

Harvey will bring strong damaging winds to Texas.  Harvey will also cause a dangerous storm surge at the coast.  The storm surge could approach 12 feet (4 meters) in some locations.  Harvey will also drop very heavy rain, if it stalls after it moves inland.  Serious fresh water flooding is possible under that scenario.  The strong winds and flooding could also lead to widespread losses of electricity.

Tropical Storm Harvey Intensifying Rapidly, Hurricane Warning for Texas

Tropical Storm Harvey was intensifying rapidly on Thursday morning and a Hurricane Warning was issued portions of the coast of Texas.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located at latitude 24.0°N and longitude 93.3°W which put it about 365 miles southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.  Harvey was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Mansfield to Matagorda, Texas.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande River to Port Mansfield.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande River to Port Mansfield and from Matagorda to High Island, Texas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca De Catan, Mexico to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.

Tropical Storm Harvey intensified very rapidly on Thursday morning.  An eye with a diameter of 18 miles (29 km) formed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of very strong thunderstorms.  Additional bands of strong thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Harvey.  The thunderstorms were generating very strong upper level divergence which was pumping away large amounts of mass in all directions from the tropical storm.  The strong upper level divergence was causing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.  The minimum surface pressure decreased from 1002 mb to 982 mb in 12 hours.  The rapid decrease in pressure was increasing the pressure gradient force and the winds speeds were increasing accordingly.

Tropical Storm Harvey is in an almost perfect environment for rapid intensification.  Harvey is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  The upper level winds are very weak and there is almost no vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Harvey should continue to intensify rapidly for another 24 to 36 hours.  Harvey will become a hurricane later today and it will likely become a major hurricane before it makes landfall.  Tropical Storm Harvey has the potential to intensify to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Harvey is being steered toward the north-northwest by a subtropical ridge to the east of the tropical storm.  A general northwesterly motion is forecast continue for another 36 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Harvey will approach the coast of Texas on Friday night.  The steering currents are forecast to weaken as Harvey nears the coast.  Some models are forecasting that Harvey drifts slowly toward the west.  Other models stall Harvey and then turn it northeastward.  There is a large degree of uncertainty about the future track of Harvey after it nears the coast.

Based on current projections the forecast Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Harvey at landfall is 22.1.  The forecast Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 18.0 and the forecast Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) at landfall is 40.1  Those indices indicate that Harvey could cause regional major damage in Texas.  The indices may be conservative if Harvey continues to intensify rapidly up until it makes landfall.  Harvey would be stronger, but a little smaller, than Hurricane Ike was when Ike made landfall in Texas in 2008.  The HII for Ike was 19.2, the HSI was 22.5 and the HWISI was 41.7.

Harvey will bring strong damaging winds to Texas.  Harvey will also cause a dangerous storm surge at the coast.  The storm surge could approach 12 feet (4 meters) in some locations.  Harvey will also drop very heavy rain, if it stalls after it moves inland.  Serious fresh water flooding is possible under that scenario.

Tropical Depression Harvey Redevelops Southeast of Texas

A tropical depression redeveloped southeast of Texas from the remnants of former Tropical Storm Harvey on Wednesday morning.  The National Hurricane Center (NHC) began issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Harvey again.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Harvey was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 92.5°W which put it about 535 miles (860 km) southeast of Port O’Connor, Texas.  Harvey was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass, Texas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande River to Port Mansfield and from San Luis Pass to High Island, Texas.  NHC also issued a Storm Surge Watch for the portion of the coast from Port Mansfield to High Island.

A reconnaissance aircraft found that a distinct low level center had formed in the remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey on Wednesday morning.  The circulation in Tropical Depression Harvey was still in the process of organizing.  Stronger thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming outside the core of the circulation.  The distribution of showers and thunderstorms was somewhat asymmetrical.  There were more showers and thunderstorms in the eastern half of the circulation.  Although there were fewer showers and thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation, more storms were developing in that part of Tropical Depression Harvey.  The thunderstorms near the core were beginning to generate upper level divergence which was pumping away mass to the northeast of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Harvey will move through an environment that will become increasing favorable for intensification.  Harvey will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level low near the coast of Louisiana is causing some vertical wind shear.  However, the low is forecast to move north and weaken and the shear is forecast to decrease.  Tropical Depression Harvey may strengthen slowly at first while the circulation is organizing.  The rate of intensification will likely increase on Thursday and there could be a period of rapid intensification when the Harvey near hurricane intensity.

Tropical Depression Harvey is moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system which is steering Harvey toward the northwest.  Harvey is forecast to continue to move toward the northwest and it will approach Texas in about 48 hours.  The winds are the steering level are forecast to weaken when Harvey approaches Texas and it could move more slowly as it nears the coast.

Tropical Depression Harvey could evolve into a very dangerous storm.  The coast along the western Gulf of Mexico is very susceptible to storm surges.  An intensifying, slow moving hurricane could generate dangerous storm surges along the coast.  If Harvey stalls after it moves inland, it could drop very heavy rain and there is also the potential for dangerous fresh water flooding.

Remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey About to Move Over Gulf of Mexico

The remnants of former Tropical Storm Harvey are about to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of the remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 89.8°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Merida, Mexico.  It was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

A broad area of low pressure that contained the remnants of former Tropical Storm Harvey moved across the Yucatan peninsula on Tuesday.  Thin bands of showers were rotating around the broad area of low pressure over land.  Several broken bands of thunderstorms were evident on the northern and northeastern periphery of the low pressure system.  There were several smaller centers rotating around inside the larger area of low pressure, but the circulation appeared to consolidating around a center near Merida.  A few thunderstorms were forming near that center as it neared the coast.

The National Hurricane Center indicated that there is a nearly 100% chance that the low pressure system will strengthen into a tropical cyclone again once it moves over the Gulf of Mexico.  The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the southern Gulf of Mexico is near 31°C.  An upper level low over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico was producing some vertical shear over the top of the surface low.  The upper low is forecast to move north and weaken.  An upper level ridge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is forecast to move over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper ridge will produce southerly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear.  However, those winds are expected to be weak enough to allow for intensification.  The southerly winds could actually enhance upper level divergence to the north of the low pressure system in a day or two.

Given the large size of the low pressure system and the lack of a well defined center of circulation, the system will likely start to intensify slowly.  The rate of intensification will increase once a well defined center forms.  A period of very rapid intensification could occur later this week because of very warm SSTs and little vertical wind shear.  The area of low pressure could become a tropical depression within 12 hours.  It is likely to be a tropical storm on Wednesday.  The system has a good chance of becoming a hurricane over the western Gulf of Mexico.  If the system moves slowly and rapid intensification occurs, it could become a major hurricane.

A ridge in the middle troposphere near Florida is steering the low pressure system toward the northwest and a general northwesterly motion is forecast for the next several days.  There will be more uncertainty about the future track until a well developed center of circulation forms.  However, it seems likely that this system will move toward the coast of Texas.  The system could slow and/or turn more toward the north when it nears the coast.  It has the potential to become a significant hurricane by the time it reaches the coast.  It could bring strong gusty winds, which could cause a significant storm surge at the coast.  If the system moves slowly, it could also drop very heavy rain, which would create flash floods.

Hurricane Franklin Brings Wind and Heavy Rain to Mexico

Hurricane Franklin brought gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of Mexico when it made landfall on Wednesday night.  The center of Hurricane Franklin made landfall between Veracruz and Nautla near the town of Lechuguillas, Mexico.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (140 km) at the time of landfall, which made Franklin a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  Franklin weakened to a tropical storm as it moved inland during the night.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 19.8°N and longitude 98.3°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) east-northeast of the Mexico City, Mexico.  Franklin was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Rojo to Boca Partido, Mexico.

Franklin brought hurricane force winds to the portion of the coast north of Veracruz, Mexico.  Those winds pushed water toward the shore and created a storm surge along the coast.  The highest surge may have reached 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) near and just to the north of where the center made landfall.  Winds blowing up the slopes of mountains produced very heavy rain and flooding could be occurring in some locations.  The heavy rain will continue as Tropical Storm Franklin moves west across central Mexico.

Tropical Storm Franklin will continue to weaken as it moves across Mexico.  Heavy rain will continue to fall over portions of central Mexico and the potential for additional flooding exists.  The mountains are likely to disrupt the low level circulation.  However, the middle and upper portions of the circulation could remain intact.  Some models are forecasting that Franklin, or its remnants, could redevelop when it reaches the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.

Franklin Strengthens Into a Hurricane Northeast of Veracruz

Formerly Tropical Storm Franklin strengthened into a hurricane northeast of Veracruz on Friday afternoon.  Franklin is the first hurricane to form over the Atlantic basin in 2017.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT the center of Hurricane Franklin was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 94.9°W which put it about 105 miles (170 km) northeast of Veracruz, Mexico.  Franklin was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto de Veracruz to Cabo Rojo, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Dos Bocas to Puerto de Veracruz and from Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo.

An elliptical eye formed at the center of Hurricane Franklin and a reconnaissance plane detected surface winds in excess of 74 m.p.h. (119 km/h).  Based on data from the plane and an improved appearance on satellite imagery, the National Hurricane Center upgrade Franklin to hurricane status in its 5:00 p.m. EDT advisory.

The structure of Hurricane Franklin improved on Friday.  An elliptical eye oriented north to south formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms completely surrounded the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of the ring of storms.  Storms in the core of the circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping out mass and allowing the surface pressure to decrease.  A primary band of showers and thunderstorms coiled inward toward the core of Hurricane Franklin,  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Franklin.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) northeast of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (225 km) on the northern side of Franklin and about 100 miles (160 km) on the southern side of the hurricane).

Hurricane Franklin could intensify further before it makes landfall.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge over northern Mexico is generating northerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  However, those winds are not very strong and the vertical wind shear is minor and it did not prevent Franklin from becoming a hurricane.  Hurricane Franklin has about another 6 to 12 hours to strengthen.  Once Franklin makes landfall and moves into the mountains, the surface circulation will weaken quickly.

A subtropical ridge is steering Hurricane Franklin toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue.  Hurricanes often turn slightly south of west when the approach the coast of the southwestern Bay of Campeche.  On its anticipated track the center Hurricane Franklin could make landfall on the coast of Mexico north of Veracruz in less than 12 hours.  The most likely landfall would be between Veracruz and Nautla.

Hurricane Franklin will bring strong gusty winds, a storm surge and heavy rain at the coast.  The storm surge could reach 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) near and just to the north of where the center makes landfall.  Franklin could produce very heavy rain when it reaches the mountains and flash flooding is a serious risk.

Tropical Storm Franklin Moves Over Bay of Campeche and Strengthens

Tropical Storm Franklin moved off the Yucatan peninsula over the Bay of Campeche and began to strengthen on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 91.3°W which put it about 325 miles (525 km) east-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico.  Franklin was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tuxpan to Rio Panuco.  A Tropical Storm Waring was in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Puerto de Veracruz and from Tuxpan to Rio Panuco.

Although Tropical Storm Franklin weakened as it moved across the Yucatan peninsula on Tuesday, its circulation maintained its structural integrity.  In fact, a tighter inner core developed at the center of the circulation while the tropical storm moved over land.  New thunderstorms began to form near the center of Tropical Storm Franklin as soon as the center moved back over water.  A primary band of thunderstorms began to wrap tightly around the eastern and northern sides of the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms began to form over the Bay of Campeche.  Thunderstorms in the core were generating upper level divergence which is pumping away mass.

Tropical Storm Franklin will move over an environment very favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  Franklin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  An upper level trough over the Bahamas may enhance the upper divergence by creating an outflow channel to the east of Franklin.  Tropical Storm Franklin will intensify on Wednesday and there could be a period of rapid intensification.  Franklin is likely to become a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Franklin is being steered to the west by a subtropical high to its northeast.  A general westerly motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Franklin will approach the coast of Mexico north of Veracruz on Wednesday night.  Franklin will bring gusty winds, heavy rain and a storm surge at the coast.  When Franklin moves inland the mountains will enhance the rising motion and very heavy rain could fall.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods.