Low Pressure System over Caribbean Sea Prompts Tropical Storm Watches for Jamaica and Grand Cayman

A low pressure system over the central Caribbean Sea prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for Jamaica and Grand Cayman on Sunday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center designated the low pressure system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Potential Tropical Tropical Cyclone Fifteen was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 73.6°W which put it about 265 miles (425 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. It was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for Jamaica and Grand Cayman.

Reconnaissance planes from the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA found winds to tropical storm force in the northern side of a low pressure system over the central Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Based on data collected by the planes, the National Hurricane Center designated the low pressure system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen. There was a large counterclockwise rotation around the low pressure system. Several small counterclockwise swirls were revolving around the larger low pressure system. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen. The winds in the southern half of the low pressure system were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over the eastern two thirds of the Caribbean Sea. The upper level ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will be designated as a tropical storm if more thunderstorms form closer to the center of circulation. It could eventually strengthen to a hurricane later this week.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will move south of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will pass south of Jamaica on Monday. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Jamaica. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Nalgae Causes Floods and Mudslides in the Philippines

Tropical Storm Nalgae caused floods and mudslides in the Philippines on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Nalgae was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 119.8°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) north-northwest of Manila, Philippines. Nalgae was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Storm Nalgae dropped heavy rain as it moved across Luzon on Saturday. Heavy rain caused floods and mudslides in some locations. There were reports of deaths and injuries that were caused by the floods and mudslides. Tropical Nalgae did weaken as it moved across Luzon, but some bands were still dropping heavy rain in places. The center of Nalgae was about to move over the South China Sea. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Nalgae’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Nalgae will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Nalgae will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. Nalgae will move under the western side of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific. The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Nalgae’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Nalgae is likely to intensify when it move over the South China Sea. Nalgae could strengthen to a typhoon during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Nalgae will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Nalgae toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nalgae will move away from northern Luzon. The heavy rain in the Philippines will diminish when Nalgae moves farther away from Luzon.

Tropical Storm Nalgae Brings Wind and Rain to the Philippines

Tropical Storm Nalgae brought wind and rain to the Philippines on Friday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Nalgae was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 123.1°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) east of Manila, Philippines. Nalgae was moving toward the west-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Storm Nalgae strengthened on Friday as it approached southeastern Luzon. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern side of the center of Nalgae. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Nalgae. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Nalgae.

Tropical Storm Nalgae will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Nalgae toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nalgae will move quickly across Luzon. Nalgae will continue to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain in Luzon during the next 24 hours. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Nalgae will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. When the center of Nalgae is over water, it will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nalgae’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Nalgae will be unlikely to intensify while the center of its circulation is over Luzon. Nalgae could intensify when the center moves over the South China Sea.

Tropical Storm Nalgae Forms East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Nalgae formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines on Thursday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Nalgae was located at latitude 12.2°N and longitude 129.7°E which put it about 410 miles (660 km) east of Legazpi, Philippines. Nalgae was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. 105 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

An area of low pressure over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines strengthened on Thursday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Nalgae. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Nalgae was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Nalgae’s circulation. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Storm Nalgae was moving under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific. The ridge was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Nalgae’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Nalgae will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Nalgae will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. The upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. However, the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Nalgae will intensify during the next 36 hours. It is forecast to strengthen to a typhoon.

Tropical Storm Nalgae will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Nalgae toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nalgae will approach southeastern Luzon on Friday. Nalgae could be a typhoon when it reaches southeast Luzon. It could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Sitrang Brings Wind and Rain to Bangladesh

Tropical Cyclone Sitrang brought wind and rain to Bangladesh on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Sitrang was located at latitude 24.6°N and longitude 91.2°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) northeast of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Sitrang was moving toward the north at 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Sitrang moved quickly across the northern Bay of Bengal and over Bangladesh on Monday. The heaviest rain was falling in bands in the northern side of Sitrang’s circulation. Bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Sitrang consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Sitrang.

A high pressure system over Southeast Asia will steer Tropical Cyclone Sitrang quickly toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Sitrang will move across Bangladesh and over northeastern India. Tropical Cyclone Sitrang will drop locally heavy rain over Bangladesh and northeastern India. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Sitrang will weaken steadily as it moves farther inland.

Tropical Cyclone Sitrang Develops over Northern Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Sitrang developed over the northern Bay of Bengal on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Sitrang was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 89.4°E which put it about 360 miles (580 km) south-southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh. Sitrang was moving toward the north-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the northern Bay of Bengal strengthened on Sunday and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Sitrang. The distribution of thunderstorms around Sitrang was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Sitrang. Bands near the center of Sitrang’s circulation and in the southern half of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Cyclone Sitrang was moving under the western end of an upper level ridge over Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal. The ridge was producing southerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Sitrang’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were also causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Sitrang. The winds in the western half of Sitrang were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Sitrang will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Sitrang will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. However, the upper level ridge over Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Sitrang could strengthen during the next 18 hours before it makes landfall in Bangladesh.

Tropical Cyclone Sitrang will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia. The high pressure system will steer Sitrang toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Sitrang will reach Bangladesh in less than 24 hours. Sitrang will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Bangladesh. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Sitrang could cause a storm surge of five feet (1.5 meters) along the coast of Bangladesh.

Hurricane Roslyn Hits West Coast of Mexico

Hurricane Roslyn hit the west coast of Mexico on Sunday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located at latitude 22.1°N and longitude 105.5°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) northwest of Tepic, Mexico. Roslyn was moving toward the north-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Escuinapa, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Puerto Vallarta. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Escuinapa to Mazatlan, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico and from Escuinapa to Mazatlan, Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Roslyn made landfall on the west coast of Mexico north of San Blas on Sunday morning. Roslyn was a major hurricane at the time of landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Roslyn’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.6. Hurricane Roslyn was capable of causing localized major damage.

An upper level trough west of Baja California and a high pressure system over Mexico will steer Hurricane Roslyn quickly toward the northeast on Sunday. Roslyn will bring strong winds and drop locally heavy rain over Nayarit. Strong winds are likely to cause damage and electricity outages. Hurricane Roslyn will weaken steadily as it moves inland over western Mexico. Even though it will weaken, Roslyn could also drop locally heavy rain over southern Durango. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some parts of Nayarit and southern Durango.

Major Hurricane Roslyn Nears West Coast of Mexico

Major Hurricane Roslyn neared the west coast of Mexico on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 106.6°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Roslyn was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Escuinapa, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Puerto Vallarta. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Escuinapa to Mazatlan, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico and from Escuinapa to Mazatlan, Mexico.

Hurricane Roslyn was at Category 4 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it approached the west coast of Mexico on Saturday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Roslyn’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Roslyn. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Roslyn was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Roslyn’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.6. Hurricane Roslyn was capable of causing localized severe damage.

Hurricane Roslyn will into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next few hours. Roslyn will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. However, an upper level trough west of Baja California will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Roslyn’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Hurricane Roslyn could start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

The upper level trough west of Baja California will steer Hurricane Roslyn toward the northeast during Sunday. On its anticipated track Hurricane Roslyn will make landfall on the west coast of Mexico near San Blas on Sunday morning. Although Roslyn could weaken before it makes landfall, it is likely to still be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of Mexico. Roslyn will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Nayarit. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Roslyn could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast. Hurricane Roslyn will be capable of causing localized major damage.

Roslyn Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Roslyn rapidly intensified to a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near the west coast of Mexico during Friday night. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 106.3°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Roslyn was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to El Roblito, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Puerto Vallarta. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from El Roblito to Mazatlan, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico and from El Roblito to Mazatlan, Mexico.

Hurricane Roslyn rapidly intensified to a major hurricane during Friday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Roslyn’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Roslyn. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Roslyn was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Roslyn’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.1. Hurricane Roslyn was capable of causing localized major damage.

Hurricane Roslyn will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Roslyn will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis on an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Roslyn is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours. Roslyn could intensify rapidly for a few more hours. Hurricane Roslyn could strengthen to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. An upper level trough west of Baja California will produce southwesterly winds on Saturday night that will blow toward the top of Roslyn’s circulation. Those winds will cause the wind shear to increase. Hurricane Roslyn could start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Roslyn will move around the western side of a surface high pressure system centered over northern Mexico during the next 12 hours. The high pressure system will steer Roslyn toward the north. The upper level trough west of Baja California will steer Hurricane Roslyn toward the northeast on Saturday night and Sunday. The center of Roslyn is likely to pass just to the west of Cabo Corrientes during Friday night. On its anticipated track Hurricane Roslyn could make landfall on the west coast of Mexico near San Blas on Sunday morning. Roslyn will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Nayarit. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Roslyn could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast. Hurricane Roslyn will be capable of causing localized major damage.

Roslyn Intensifies to a Hurricane; Mexico Issues Warnings

Former Tropical Storm Roslyn intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Friday night and the government of Mexico issued Hurricane Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings for portions of the coast. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 105.6°W which put it about 255 miles (410 km) south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Roslyn was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to El Roblito, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Puerto Vallarta. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from El Roblito to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Roslyn intensified to a hurricane on Friday night near the west coast of Mexico. A small circular eye formed at the center of Hurricane Roslyn’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Roslyn. Storm near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The circulation around Hurricane Roslyn was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles on the norther side of Roslyn’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Roslyn will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Roslyn will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the axis on an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Roslyn will intensify during the next 24 hours. Roslyn could intensify rapidly at times. Hurricane Roslyn could strengthen to a major hurricane.

Hurricane Roslyn will move around the western side of a surface high pressure system centered over northern Mexico on Saturday. The high pressure system will steer Roslyn toward the north on Saturday. An upper level trough west of Baja California will steer Hurricane Roslyn toward the northeast on Saturday night and Sunday. On its anticipated track Hurricane Roslyn could make landfall on the west coast of Mexico near San Blas on Sunday morning. Roslyn will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.