Tag Archives: Luzon

Typhoon Nock-ten Rapidly Intensifies Into Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Nock-ten intensified rapidly into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Typhoon Nock-ten was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 128.6°E which put it about 545 miles (880 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Nock-ten was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 935 mb.

Nock-ten is a very well organized typhoon.  There is an eye with a diameter of 14 miles (23 km) at the center of Typhoon Nock-ten.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Additional bands of thunderstorms surround the core of the circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center.  Thunderstorms around the center are generating strong upper level divergence in all directions.  The divergence is pumping out large amounts of mass which allowed the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 23.6 and the Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 15.5.  The Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 39.1.  Those indices indicate that Typhoon Nock-ten is capable of causing major regional wind damage.

Typhoon Nock-ten will continue to move through an environment that is very favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Nock-ten could intensify more during the next 24 hours and it could become a super typhoon before it reaches the Philippines.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Nock-ten is steering the typhoon toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Nock-ten could be near Catanduanes Island within 36 hours.  Nock-ten is likely to pass across southern Luzon and the center could move close to Manila.  Typhoon Nock-ten will be capable of causing major wind damage.  It will also bring heavy rain and create the potential for floods and mudslides.

Tropical Storm Nock-ten Strengthens on Its Way to the Philippines

Tropical Storm Nock-ten strengthened as it moved closer to the Philippines on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Nock-ten was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 132.7°E which put it about 850 miles (1370 km) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines.  Nock-ten was moving toward the west-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Even though Tropical Storm Nock-ten moved quickly on Thursday the circulation continued to organized.  A mid-level eye appeared to develop on microwave satellite imagery.  Additional rainbands developed outside the core of the tropical storm.  Thunderstorms around the core of Nock-ten generated strong upper level divergence that pumped out mass in all directions.

Tropical Storm Nock-ten is moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge to the east of Nock-ten is producing southeasterly winds that are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  However, Tropical Storm Nock-ten is moving fairly rapidly toward the west-northwest.  The rapid motion is reducing the effective vertical wind shear, and so the wind shear is not inhibiting intensification.  Tropical Storm Nock-ten will continue to strengthen and it should become a typhoon within 12 to 24 hours.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Nock-ten is steering the tropical storm toward the west-northwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  The subtropical ridge is expected to strengthen after that time and it will steer Nock-ten more toward the west.  On its anticipated track Nock-ten will approach southeast Luzon in about 48 hours.

Nock-ten is likely to be a strong typhoon when it reaches the Philippines.  It could be the equivalent of a major hurricane.  In addition to strong winds, Nock-ten will generate a storm surge  and produce locally heavy rains.  It will produce a risk of floods and mudslides.

Typhoon Haima Producing Strong Winds and Heavy Rain Over Northern Luzon

Typhoon Haima was producing strong winds and heavy rain as it moved across northern Luzon on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Haima was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 120.8°E which put it about 10 miles (15 km) east of Laoag, Philippines.  Haima was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

The center of Typhoon Haima moved quickly across northern Luzon on Wednesday.  Haima made landfall on northeastern Luzon east of Tuguegarao.  As it moved toward the west-northwest the center of Typhoon Haima passed near Tuao and Dingras.  The center also passed over the Cordillera Central, where it produced very heavy rain in places where the wind was blowing up the slopes of the mountains.

Movement across the mountain ranges in northern Luzon weakened Typhoon Haima and an eye is no longer evident on satellite images.  However, Haima is still a large, powerful typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extend out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 240 miles (390 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Haima is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 25.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.2.  The indices indicate that Typhoon Haima is capable of causing widespread major wind damage.

The core of Typhoon Haima is not as well organized as it was before the typhoon made landfall in Luzon.   Some reorganization of the core could occur when Typhoon Haima moves over the South China Sea.  Haima will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and Typhoon Haima is still producing strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away in all directions.  Typhoon Haima could restrengthen somewhat or maintain its intensity after the center moves northwest of the Philippines.  When Haima nears the coast of China, it will approach an upper level trough and vertical wind shear will increase.  So, Typhoon Haima is likely to be on a weakening trend when it makes landfall in China.

Typhoon Haima is moving around the western end of subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the west-northwest.  Typhoon Haima is likely to move more toward the northwest after it leaves Luzon and reaches the end of the ridge.  When Typhoon Haima nears the coast of China, it will move under southwesterly winds caused by an upper level trough over China.  Those winds will turn Haima more toward the north.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Haima could make a landfall in China northeast of Hong Kong in about 36 hours.

Typhoon Haima will continue to produce strong winds and heavy rains over parts of northern Luzon for a few more hours until the core of the typhoon moves northwest of that region.  The heavy rain has the potential to cause floods and mudslides.  Although Typhoon Haima is likely to be weakening when it reaches the coast of China, it will still be capable of producing strong winds, heavy rain, floods and a storm surge along the coast.

Typhoon Haima Equal to Cat. 5 Hurricane, Threatens Luzon

Typhoon Haima intensified into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Haima was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 128.4°E which put it about 400 miles (640 km) east of northern Luzon.  Haima was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 919 mb.

Typhoon Haima completed an eyewall replacement cycle and it intensified as the outer eyewall contracted.  Haima is a very well organized, symmetrical typhoon.  Haima has a clear circular eye surrounded by a ring of very strong thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms in the core of Typhoon Haima are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping away large quantities of mass in all directions.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 65 miles (105 km) from the center.

Typhoon Haima is moving through a very favorable environment.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is very little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Haima is moving on a track that is a little to the north of the track taken by Typhoon Sarika.  This means that the core of Haima is moving north of cooler water mixed to the surface by Typhoon Sarika.  Typhoon Haima could intensify more during the next 12 to 24 hours.  However, if another eyewall replacement cycle occurs, then there could be fluctuations in intensity.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Haima toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track the core of Typhoon Haima will approach northern Luzon in about 24 hours.  After Haima moves across Luzon it will reach the western end of the ridge and turn more toward the northwest.  Typhoon Haima could be near the coast of China in 72 hours.

Haima is an extremely dangerous typhoon.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Haima is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 21.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 56.2.  The indices indicate that Typhoon Haima is capable of causing widespread catastrophic wind damage.  In addition Typhoon Haima will produce very heavy rain over northern Luzon including over some locations hit by Typhoon Sarika a few days ago.  The heavy rain will create the potential for flash floods and mudslides.  Haima will also generate a significant storm surge in locations where the wind pushes the water toward the coast.

Powerful Typhoon Sarika Makes Landfall in Luzon

Powerful Typhoon Sarika made landfall in Luzon near Baler on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Sarika was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 122.3°E which put it near Baler, Philippines and about 130 miles (210 km) east-northeast of Manila.  Sarika was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 941 mb.

Sarika is a powerful, well organized typhoon.  It has a circular eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Additional rainbands are rotating around the core of Sarika.  The core of Typhoon Sarika is generating well developed upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.  Typhoon Sarika was intensifying rapidly until it made landfall.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Sarika is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.6.  These indices indicate that Typhoon Sarika is capable of causing regional major wind damage.  Typhoon Sarika will also generate a storm surge along the coast of Luzon north of the eye where the wind will push water toward the coast.  Sarika will also produce heavy rain over northern Luzon which will create a risk of flash flooding and mudslides.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Marika toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track across Luzon the center of Typhoon Sarika will pass near San Jose City,  Baguio and Dagupan.  The center of Sarika could emerge over the South China Sea near the Lingayen Gulf.  The core of Typhoon Sarika will move across the Sierra Madre Mountains and the Cordillera Central.  Where winds blow up the slopes of the mountains, rising motion will be stronger and the rainfall will be heavier.  The mountains will also disrupt the airflow in the lower part of Sarika’s circulation and the typhoon will weaken.

It could take the center of Typhoon Sarika about 12 hours to move across Luzon.  The environment of the Sea China Sea will  be favorable for intensification.  The Sea Surface Temperature is warm and there will be little vertical wind shear.  If the core of the circulation remains reasonably intact, then Typhoon Sarika could intensify again while it moves across the South China Sea.  Sarika could eventually move near Hainan Island and into northern Vietnam in a few days.

Typhoon Sarika Near Catanduanes Island, Threatens Luzon

The center of Typhoon Sarika is located near Catanduanes Island and Sarika poses a serious threat to Luzon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Sarika was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 124.8°E which put it about 280 miles (455 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Sarika was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Sarika is well organized.  An eye has appeared at times on conventional and microwave satellite imagery.  A primary rainband wrapped around the eye and strong thunderstorms are occurring in the eyewall.  Additional, well formed rainbands are rotating around the core of the circulation.  The convection around the core is generating well developed upper level divergence which is pumping away mass.

Typhoon Sarika is moving through a very favorable environment.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Sarika will continue to intensify as long as the center stays over the water and it could intensify rapidly now that the circulation is well organized.

A subtropical ridge north of Sarika is steering the typhoon toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Sarika will remain north of Catanduanes Island.  It will pass just to the north of Daet and Labo on Saturday.  The center of Typhoon Sarika could be near or just to the north of the Polillo Islands in 12-16 hours.  Sarika could make a landfall near Baler on Luzon in 18-24 hours.

Sarika is a well organized intensifying typhoon.  It could bring strong winds to portions of northern Luzon.  Typhoon Sarika will also bring very heavy rain and create the potential for flash floods and mudslides.  Sarika will generate a storm surge in places where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

Tropical Storm Sarika Forms East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Sarika formed east of the Philippines on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Sarika was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 127.0°W which put it about 425 miles (685 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Sarika was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Sarika is still organizing.  Most of the thunderstorms are occurring in a broad rainband that curls around the western and southern sides of the circulation.  There are a few thunderstorms in thinner rainbands in the eastern half of the circulation.  More thunderstorms are developing closer to the center of circulation.  Those thunderstorms are beginning to produce upper level divergence which is pumping out mass.  As the mass is removed, the pressure decreases and the wind speeds increase.

Tropical Storm Sarika is moving through an environment that is generally favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge to the north of Sarika is producing easterly winds which are blowing across the top of the tropical storm.  The vertical wind shear may account for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms, but it is not strong enough to prevent Sarika from intensifying.  The vertical wind shear could slow the rate of intensification while the core of the circulation becomes better organized.  Sarika could strengthen into a typhoon with the next 24 to 36 hours.

A subtropical ridge north of Sarika is steering the tropical storm toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 24 hours.  In a day or so Tropical Storm Sarika is forecast to turn more toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Sarika could be near Catanduanes Island in about 24 hours.  Sarika could be near Central Luzon in about 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Sarika is expected to intensify into a typhoon.  It could bring strong winds and very heavy rain to parts of the northern Philippines.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods and mudslides.

Tropical Storm Megi Forms West of the Marianas

Tropical Storm Megi formed west of the Marianas on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Megi was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 137.1°E which put it about 1160 miles (1870 km) east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Megi was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Megi is still organizing.  A distinct center of circulation is still consolidating.  There are more thunderstorms south and east of the center of circulation, but bands of thunderstorms are beginning to develop in other quadrants of the storm.  The thunderstorms closer to the center are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass.  Outflow channels could be developing to the northwest and southeast of Tropical Storm Megi.

Tropical Storm Megi is moving into an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are not very strong and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Megi is likely to continue to intensify while the circulation becomes better organized.  Once a well formed core develops at the center of Megi, it could intensify more rapidly.  Tropical Storm Megi is likely to become a typhoon during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Megi is moving along the southwestern side of a subtropical ridge, which is steering it toward the west.  A westerly or west-northwesterly motion is expected to continue for the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Megi could approach Taiwan in about three days.  Megi is likely to be a typhoon at that time.

Typhoon Meranti Becomes Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane and Threatens Taiwan

Typhoon Meranti rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved on a course that threatens Taiwan.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Meranti was located at latitude 19.2°N and longitude 127.6°E which put it about 495 miles (800 km) southeast of Taiwan.  Meranti was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (23 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 220 m.p.h. (355 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure.

Meranti is a large dangerous typhoon.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 42.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 25.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 67.7.  Those indices suggest that Typhoon Meranti is capable of causing widespread catastrophic damage.

The structure of Typhoon Meranti is very well organized.  A well formed circular eye is surrounded by a ring of very tall thunderstorms.  Additional strong spiral bands of thunderstorms are rotating around the core of the circulation.  Typhoon Meranti is generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.

Typhoon Meranti is moving through an environment that will allow it to maintain much of its intensity until it reaches Taiwan.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye, then an eyewall replacement cycle could temporarily weaken Typhoon Meranti.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Meranti toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Meranti will be very near the southern tip of Taiwan in about 36 hours.  After it moves past Taiwan it is forecast to move into eastern China.

Meranti is an extremely dangerous typhoon.  It is capable of causing widespread catastrophic wind damage.  In addition it will produce very heavy rain and flooding is a serious concern.

Typhoon Meranti Strengthens Quickly Into the Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Meranti intensified rapidly on Sunday into the equivalent of a major hurricane.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Meranti was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 129.7°E which put it about 650 miles (1050 km) east-southeast of Taiwan.  Meranti was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Typhoon Meranti intensified very rapidly on Sunday.  A small, well formed eye developed at the center of Meranti.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounds the eye and additional bands of thunderstorms are spiraling around the core of the circulation.  The circulation is very symmetrical.  Thunderstorms in the core of Typhoon Meranti are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping out large amounts of mass in all directions.  Meranti is a very well organized typhoon.

Typhoon Meranti is moving through a very favorable environment. It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Meranti will continue to intensify and it could become a Super Typhoon.  If an eyewall replacement cycle occurs, there could be fluctuations in the intensity of Meranti.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Meranti toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another couple of days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Meranti will be near northern Luzon, Taiwan and the southern Ryukyu Islands in about 48 hours.  Meranti will be a dangerous typhoon at that time.  It will be capable of significant wind damage.  It will also cause very heavy rain and create the potential for significant flooding.