Major Hurricane Felicia Strengthens

Major Hurricane Felicia strengthened on Saturday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Felicia was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 124.6°W which put it about 1120 miles (1800 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Felicia was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Hurricane Felicia intensified on Saturday morning even though the small hurricane began to move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was slightly cooler. A well formed circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Felicia. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms around the core of Felicia generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The circulation around Hurricane Felicia was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (35 km) from the center of Felicia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Felicia was 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.0.

Hurricane Felicia will gradually move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are slightly cooler. Felicia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C during the rest of the weekend. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Felicia will move through an environment capable of supporting a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Felicia will start to weaken when it moves over slightly cooler water. Since the circulation around Hurricane Felicia is very small, Felicia could weaken rapidly when it moves into a less favorable environment.

Hurricane Felicia will move south of a subtropical high pressure system during the next few days. The high will steer Felicia toward the west. On its anticipated track Hurricane Felicia will move toward the Central Pacific Ocean.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Seven-E formed south of Baja California on Saturday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Seven-E was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 109.2°W which put it about 475 miles (680 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Hurricane Felicia Reaches Cat. 4

Hurricane Felicia reached Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Felicia was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 123.2°W which put it about 1030 miles (1660 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Felicia was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Hurricane Felicia strengthened to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday. A small circular eye at the center of Felicia became more well defined on satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms around the core of Felicia generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The circulation around Hurricane Felicia was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (35 km) from the center of Felicia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Felicia was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.2.

Hurricane Felicia may have reached its peak intensity. Felicia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C for a few more hours. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Those environmental conditions may allow Hurricane Felicia to maintain its intensity for awhile. Felicia will move over slightly cooler water during the weekend. Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures will cause Hurricane Felicia to start to weaken.

Hurricane Felicia will move south of a subtropical high pressure system during the next few days. The high will steer Felicia toward the west. On its anticipated track Hurricane Felicia will move toward the Central Pacific Ocean.

Felicia Strengthens to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Felicia strengthened to a major hurricane on Friday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Felicia was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 121.0°W which put it about 900 miles (1450 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Felicia was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Hurricane Felicia continued to intensify quickly on Thursday and it strengthened to a major hurricane on Friday morning. A small circular eye was present at the center of Felicia. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms around the core of Felicia generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The circulation around Hurricane Felicia was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Felicia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Felicia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Felicia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Felicia could strengthen on Friday. Felicia will move over slightly cooler water during the weekend. Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures will cause Hurricane Felicia to weaken.

Hurricane Felicia will move south of a subtropical high pressure system during the next few days. The high will steer Felicia toward the west. On its anticipated track Hurricane Felicia will move toward the Central Pacific Ocean.

Felicia Quickly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Felicia quickly intensified to a hurricane on Thursday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Felicia was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 118.6°W which put it about 775 miles (1250 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Felicia was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Storm Felicia organized quickly during the past 24 hours. A small circular eye developed at the center of Felicia. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Hurricane Felicia. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The circulation around Hurricane Felicia was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Felicia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Felicia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Felicia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Felicia will continue to intensify and it could strengthen to a major hurricane on Friday.

Hurricane Felicia will move south of a subtropical high pressure system during the next few days. The high will steer Felicia toward the west. On its anticipated track Hurricane Felicia will move toward the Central Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Storm Felicia Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Felicia formed south of Baja California on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 114.1°W which put it about 655 miles (1055 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Felicia was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system south of Baja California on Wednesday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Felicia. Thunderstorms were also forming in bands in the western half of Felicia’s circulation. Bands in the eastern half of the tropical storm consisted mainly of the showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Felicia generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Felicia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Felicia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Felicia will continue to intensify and it could strengthen to a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Felicia will move south of a subtropical high pressure system during the next few days. The high will steer Felicia toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Felicia will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Elsa Brings Wind and Rain to Northeast U.S.

Tropical Storm Elsa brought wind and rain to the northeast U.S. on Friday morning. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 40.2°N and longitude 73.1°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) southwest of Montauk Point, New York. Elsa was moving toward the northeast at 31 m.p.h. (50 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the eastern portion of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Block Island, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Cape Cod.

Tropical Storm Elsa was buffeting the northeastern U.S. with gusty winds and locally heavy rain on Friday morning. The center of Elsa was passing south of Long Island, but rain was falling over an area that extended from New York City to southern Maine. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) to the southeast of the center of Elsa. Winds to tropical storm force also extended out 80 miles (130 km) to the northeast of the center of circulation. Winds in the western half of Tropical Storm Elsa were not as strong. Elsa could cause sporadic power outages and flash floods in the northeastern U.S. on Friday.

Tropical Storm Elsa will make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours, while it moves quickly toward the northeast. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 22°C. An upper level trough over the Great Lakes will produce strong southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Elsa’s circulation. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The combination of cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and strong wind shear will cause the structure of Tropical Storm Elsa to change to the structure of an extratropical cyclone. The center of Elsa will pass near Cape Cod on Friday afternoon. Elsa will pass over the Canadian Maritime Provinces on Friday night. It could be near Labrador and eastern Newfoundland on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Elsa Moves over North Carolina

Tropical Storm Elsa moved over North Carolina on Thursday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 35.6°N and longitude 79.0°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west of Raleigh, North Carolina. Elsa was moving toward the northeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. The Tropical Storm Warning included Pamlico Sound and Albemarle Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the eastern portion of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Block Island, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Cape Cod.

Tropical Storm Elsa moved a little more quickly toward the northeast on Thursday. The surface center of Elsa moved over North Carolina. The structure of Elsa exhibited the typical characteristics of a tropical storm moving northeast near the coast of the U.S. Heavy rain was falling in the northeastern part of Tropical Storm Elsa. The heaviest rain was falling on eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia. Drier air was wrapping around the western and southern sides of Elsa. The strongest winds were blowing in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Elsa that was over the Atlantic Ocean.

An upper level trough over the Great Lakes will steer Tropical Storm Elsa quickly toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Elsa will move over Virginia on Thursday evening. Tropical Storm Elsa could be near Long Island on Friday morning. Elsa could pass near Cape Cod later on Friday. Tropical Storm Elsa will make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it moves farther north. Elsa will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the East Coast of the U.S. from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Tropical Storm Elsa could cause sporadic power outages along the East Coast. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Elsa Prompts Warnings for East Coast

Tropical Storm Elsa prompted the issuance of warnings and watches for the East Coast of the U.S. on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 32.1°N and longitude 82.3°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) west of Savannah, Georgia. Elsa was moving toward the north-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 55 m.p.h. (90 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey. The Tropical Storm Warning included Pamlico Sound and Albemarle Sound. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Great Egg Inlet to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the eastern portion of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Block Island, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Cape Cod.

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa was moving across eastern Georgia on Wednesday night. Heavy rain was spreading across South Carolina. Rainbands on the eastern side of Elsa’s circulation were producing winds to tropical storm force over the Atlantic Ocean. NOAA buoy 41008 at Grays Reef reported a sustained wind speed of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 m.p.h. (76 km/h). The circulation around Tropical Storm Elsa was still well defined. A distinct low pressure system was evident on the surface map, radar and satellite displays. Storms on the eastern side of Elsa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.

An upper level trough over the Great Lakes will steer Tropical Storm Elsa toward the northeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Elsa will move across South Carolina on Thursday morning and North Carolina on Thursday afternoon. Elsa could be over eastern Virginia on Thursday evening and near Long Island by Friday morning. Even though the center of Tropical Storm Elsa will be over land for another 18 to 24 hours, bands on the eastern side of the circulation could produce tropical storm force winds over the Atlantic Ocean and along the East Coast of the U.S. Elsa will also drop locally heavy rain over South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia. Gusty winds and heavy rain could cause sporadic power outages. Heavy rain could also cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Elsa Makes Landfall in Florida

Tropical Storm Elsa made landfall on the coast of north Florida on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 29.9°N and longitude 83.6°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) southwest of Perry, Florida. Elsa was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Aripeka to Ochlockonee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Marys River, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook New Jersey including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa made landfall in Taylor County, Florida about 20 miles southwest of Perry around 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday. Elsa weakened from a hurricane to a strong tropical storm before it made landfall. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation around Tropical Storm Elsa dropped heavy rain over Florida. Rain was beginning to spread over southern Georgia. Gusty winds caused power outages in parts of Florida. Elsa caused a minor storm surge along the west coast of Florida.

Tropical Storm Elsa will weaken steadily during the next 48 hours while the center moves farther inland. Elsa will be steered toward the northeast during the next few days by an upper level trough over the Great Lakes. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Elsa will move over southern Georgia on Wednesday night. Elsa could be over South Carolina on Thursday morning and it could be over eastern Virginia by Thursday night. Elsa could strengthen back to a tropical storm if the center moves over the Atlantic Ocean later this week.

Tropical Storm Elsa will continue to drop locally heavy rain over northern Florida during the next few hours. Heavy rain will spread over southern Georgia, South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Gusty winds could cause sporadic power outages. There could be enough low level wind shear in stronger rainbands to produce tornadoes. When Tropical Storm Elsa gets closer to the East Coast of the U.S., southeasterly winds will blow water toward the coast. Those winds will cause water levels to rise along the coast

Elsa Strengthens Back to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened back to a hurricane on Tuesday evening. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Elsa was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 83.1°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) south-southwest of Tampa, Florida. Elsa was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Flamingo to Egmont Key and from the Steinhatchee River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida. That warning included Naples, and Ft. Myers. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

Former Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened gradually throughout the day on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation and an eye appeared to be forming at the center of Elsa. Storms near near the center of circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of more mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease, which caused the wind speed to increase. The distribution of thunderstorms around Hurricane Elsa remained asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Elsa. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Elsa.

Hurricane Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hurricane Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. However, the southwesterly winds may also increase upper level divergence to the northeast of Elsa. Additional upper level divergence could cause the surface pressure to continue to decrease. Hurricane Elsa could intensify a little more on Tuesday night.

Hurricane Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high will steer Elsa toward the north on Tuesday night. Hurricane Elsa will turn toward the northeast on Wednesday when it reaches the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. On its anticipated track the center of Elsa will pass just to the west of Tampa on Tuesday night. Hurricane Elsa could make landfall near Cedar Key on Wednesday. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Hurricane Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. After the center of Elsa moves north of Tampa, southwesterly winds will push water into Tampa Bay which could cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters). Hurricane Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 5 feet (0.6 to 1.6 m) along other parts of the west coast of Florida. A higher storm surge could occur near Cedar Key when the center of Elsa makes landfall. Gusty winds could cause power outages in Florida and southeastern Georgia.