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Tropical Storm Bret Nears Barbados

Tropical Storm Bret moved near Barbados on Thursday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located at latitude 13.4°N and longitude 58.9°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) east-northeast of Barbados. Bret was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for St. Lucia.

The intensity of Tropical Storm Bret appeared to peak on Thursday morning. A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Bret was close to hurricane intensity on Thursday morning. A microwave satellite image showed an eyelike feature in the middle levels of Tropical Storm Bret. After its intensity peaked in the morning, the portion of Bret’s circulation in the lower levels appeared to race out ahead (to the west) of the parts of the circulation in the middle and upper troposphere during Thursday. The rapid movement of the circulation near the surface was creating strong vertical wind shear. The lower level circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands the eastern part of Tropical Storm Brett. Those thunderstorms were occurring near the circulation center in the middle levels.

The distribution of wind around Tropical Storm Bret remained asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northern side of Bret’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the southern part of Tropical Storm Bret.

Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Bret’s circulation. Bret will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will produce strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. The strong easterly winds in in the lower levels will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Bret to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Bret will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer Bret toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bret will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Barbados on Thursday afternoon. The center of Bret could pass close to St. Lucia on Thursday night. Tropical Storm Bret will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to St. Lucia. Bands in the northern part of Bret’s circulation will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Martinique and Dominica. Tropical Storm Bret could produce gusty winds and heavy rain over St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Four formed halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Four was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 42.9°W which put it about 1270 miles (2040 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Tropical Depression Four was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Bret Strengthens

Tropical Storm Bret strengthened on Wednesday as it moved closer to the Lesser Antilles. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 53.9°W which put it about 375 miles (605 km) east of Barbados. Bret was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for St. Lucia and Martinique. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Barbados and Dominica.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying into Tropical Storm Bret on Wednesday afternoon found that Bret had strengthened. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Bret’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Bret. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The size of the circulation around Bret increased when it strengthened. The reconnaissance plane found that the strongest winds were occurring northeast of the center of Tropical Storm Bret. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the northern side of Bret’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the southern side of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge. There could be slightly stronger winds in the middle troposphere which could cause some vertical wind shear in those levels. Stronger wind shear in the middle troposphere could prevent intensification of Tropical Storm Bret during the next 24 hours. However, if the winds in the middle levels are not too strong, then Bret could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Bret will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer Bret toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bret could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Barbados on Thursday afternoon. Bret could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to St. Lucia, Martinique, and Dominica on Thursday night. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Bret Prompts Watch for Barbados

The potential effects of Tropical Storm Bret prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for Barbados on Tuesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located at latitude 12.2°N and longitude 48.6°W which put it about 835 miles (1350 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Tropical Storm Bret was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Barbados.

The potential effects of Tropical Storm Bret prompted the government of Barbados to issue a Tropical Storm Watch on Tuesday afternoon. The circulation around Tropical Storm Bret strengthened gradually on Tuesday. More thunderstorms formed just to the west of the center of Bret’s circulation on Tuesday afternoon. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Bret.

Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Bret will intensify during the next 24 hours. Bret could strengthen to a hurricane later this week.

Tropical Storm Bret will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer Bret toward the west during the next 24 hours. Bret could move more toward the west-northwest later this week. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bret could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Barbados on Thursday. Bret could reach some of the other islands in the Lesser Antilles by Thursday night. Additional watches and warnings are likely to be issued as Tropical Storm Bret moves closer to the Lesser Antilles. Planes are scheduled to start to fly reconnaissance missions into Tropical Storm Bret starting on Wednesday afternoon.

Tropical Depression Three Strengthens to Tropical Storm Bret

Former Tropical Depression Three strengthened to Tropical Storm Bret east of the Lesser Antilles on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 42.2°W which put it about 1295 miles (2085 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Tropical Storm Bret was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Satellite images provided evidence that the circulation around former Tropical Depression Three strengthened on Monday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Bret. The inner end of a rainband wrapped part of the way around the center of Tropical Storm Bret. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Bret’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Bret. The winds on the western side of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Bret will intensify during the next 36 hours. Bret could strengthen to a hurricane later this week.

Tropical Storm Bret will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer Bret toward the west during the next 36 hours. Bret could move more toward the west-northwest later this week. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bret could approach the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Bret could be a hurricane by that time. Planes are scheduled to start to fly reconnaissance missions into Tropical Storm Bret starting on Wednesday afternoon.

Tropical Depression Three Forms East of Lesser Antilles

Tropical Depression Three formed over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Three was located at latitude 11.0°N and longitude 40.3°W which put it about 1425 miles (2295 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Tropical Depression Three was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A circulation within a tropical wave previously designated as Invest 92L strengthened on Monday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Three. More thunderstorms were developing near the center of Tropical Depression Three. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Three will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression Three is likely to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. It could strengthen to a hurricane later this week.

Tropical Depression Three will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer the tropical depression toward the west during the next 36 hours. It could move more toward the west-northwest later this week. On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Three could approach the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. It could be a hurricane by that time.

Tropical Storm Colin Forms on South Carolina Coast

Tropical Storm Colin formed on the coast of South Carolina on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located at latitude 33.6°N and longitude 79.3°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west-southwest of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Colin was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Duck, North Carolina.

A small low pressure system dropped heavy rain over the area around Charleston, South Carolina on Friday. An area of winds to tropical storm force was detected off the coast of South Carolina on Saturday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Colin. The strongest winds were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Colin, which was over the Atlantic Ocean. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the eastern side of Colin’s circulation. The winds over land were weaker. The heaviest rain was also falling in the bands over the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Storm Colin will move through an environment that is unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Although the Sea Surface Temperatures off the coast of North Carolina are near 27˚C, the center of Colin’s circulation is likely to move along the coast. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Proximity to land and vertical wind shear are likely to prevent Tropical Storm Colin from strengthening during the next 36 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Colin toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Colin will move along the coast of North Carolina. Colin could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Bonnie was moving along the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 85.8°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) southeast of Managua, Nicaragua. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb. Tropical Storm Bonnie will move over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean in a few hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the Caribbean coast from Limon, Costa Rica to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the Pacific coast from Cabo Blanco, Costa Rica to the border between Nicaragua and Honduras.

Claudette Strengthens Back to a Tropical Storm

Former Tropical Depression Claudette strengthened back to a tropical storm on Monday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located at latitude 36.4°N and longitude 76.3°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) west of Duck, North Carolina. Claudette was moving toward the east-northeast at 28 m.p.h. (45 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

When the center of former Tropical Depression Claudette moved close to the coast of North Carolina, the sustained wind speed in bands in the part of the circulation over the Atlantic Ocean increased to tropical force. The National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Claudette on Monday morning. The distribution of thunderstorms and the wind field around Tropical Storm Claudette was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Claudette. Bands in the western side of the circulation consisted mainly of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) on the eastern side of Claudette.

Tropical Storm Claudette will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Claudette will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. An upper level trough centered near the Great Lakes will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Claudette. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Claudette could get a little stronger on Monday. Claudette will move over cooler water when it moves north of the Gulf Stream and it will make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over the Great Lakes will steer Tropical Storm Claudette quickly toward the northeast. On its anticipated track Claudette will move rapidly away from the East Coast of the U.S. Tropical Storm Claudette could pass south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday.

Tropical Depression Claudette Prompts Warning for North Carolina

Even though the center of circulation was well inland over the southeastern U.S. on Sunday morning, Tropical Depression Claudette prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of North Carolina. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Claudette was located at latitude 33.7°N and longitude 84.8°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west of Atlanta, Georgia. Claudette was moving toward the east-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the coast of North Carolina from Little River Inlet to Duck including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Little River Inlet, North Carolina.

Although the center of Tropical Depression Claudette had been over land for a day, the circulation was still well organized. A well defined center of lower pressure was evident at the surface. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were visible on satellite and radar images. The strongest winds were occurring in the bands that were over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The winds were weaker over land. Rain was falling over the region from northern Florida to North Carolina. The heaviest rain was falling in a band over northern Florida and a Tornado Watch was in effect for part of that region.

Tropical Depression Claudette will move into an environment more favorable for intensification on Sunday. The center of Claudette will still be over land, but it will move east of the Appalachian Mountains. It will move between an upper level trough over the North Central U.S. and an upper level ridge southeast of the U.S. The trough and the ridge will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but they will also generate upper level divergence to the northeast of Tropical Depression Claudette. The upper level divergence could allow the surface pressure to decrease while Claudette is still over land. A decrease in pressure could generate enough additional force to increase the wind speeds along the coast of North Carolina and South Carolina, when the center Tropical Depression Claudette gets closer to the coast.

Tropical Depression Claudette will move north of a surface high pressure system centered southeast of the U.S. on Sunday. The high will steer Claudette toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Claudette will move across Georgia and South Carolina on Sunday. Claudette will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. Flash Flood Watches were in effect for northern Florida, northern Georgia, South Carolina, and eastern North Carolina. There could also be enough wind shear to generate tornadoes in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Depression Claudette.

Tropical Storm Claudette Brings Rain to Southeast U.S.

Tropical Storm Claudette brought wind and rain to the southeastern U.S. on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located at latitude 30.4°N and longitude 90.1°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) north of New Orleans, Louisiana. Tropical Storm Claudette was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. The Tropical Storm Warning included Biloxi, Mississippi, Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida.

A well defined low level center of circulation formed in the system formerly called Potential Tropical Cyclone Three on Saturday morning and the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Storm Claudette. The strongest winds and heaviest rain were falling in bands north and east of the center of Claudette. Drier air was wrapping around the western and southern parts of Tropical Storm Claudette, Bands in those parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The stronger winds were occurring in the portion of the circulation that was still over the Gulf of Mexico. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) on the eastern side of Claudette. Winds on the western side of Claudette were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Claudette will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system southeast of the U.S. The high pressure system will steer it toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Claudette will move across southeastern Mississippi on Saturday and it could reach Alabama by Saturday night. Claudette will move across Georgia on Sunday and it could be over South Carolina by Sunday evening. Tropical Storm Claudette will drop locally heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. Heavy rain could cause flash floods. Flash Flood Watches were in effect for parts of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northwestern Florida, and western Georgia. There may also be enough low level wind shear to produce tornadoes in the rainbands in the eastern side of the circulation.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Reaches Tropical Storm Force

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three reached tropical storm force south of Louisiana on Friday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (03L) was located at latitude 27.3°N and longitude 91.1°W which put it about 165 miles (265 km) south of Morgan City, Louisiana. Potential Tropical Cyclone Three was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. The Tropical Storm Warning included Biloxi, Mississippi, Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Three strengthened on Friday afternoon. A C-MAN station (BURL1) at Southwest Pass, Louisiana with an anemometer at a height of 38 meters reported a sustained wind speed of 44 m.p.h. (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 m.p.h. (82 km/h). The sustained wind speed was equivalent to a speed of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) at a standard observation height of 10 meters.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Three continued to consist of a broad low pressure system at the surface. The strongest winds were occurring northeast of the center of the broad low pressure system. A high pressure system southeast of the U.S. was contributing to a stronger pressure gradient in that region. The stronger pressure gradient was causing winds to blow at tropical storm force. The winds were weaker in the other parts of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. There were several smaller circulations revolving counterclockwise around the broader Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. One of the smaller circulations was south of Louisiana and another one was over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands northeast of the broad center and in a long band on the eastern side of the circulation.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will move through an environment slightly favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move between an upper level low over eastern Texas and an upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The low and ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification. The upper level ridge will contribute to upper level divergence that will pump mass to the east of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. There will also be drier air over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, which will make it difficult for thunderstorms to develop in that area. Potential Tropical Cyclone Three could intensify a little more during the next six hours. If a well defined surface center of circulation develops, the system could be designated as a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will move around the western end of the high pressure system southeast of the U.S. The high pressure system will steer it toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will make landfall in southeastern Louisiana on Friday night. The system will move across southeastern Mississippi on Saturday and it could reach Alabama by Saturday night. It will bring gusty winds to southeast Louisiana and the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama. The system could cause a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet (1.0 to 1.5 meters) along parts of the coast. It will drop locally heavy rain when it moves inland. Heavy rain could cause flash floods over parts of the southeastern U.S. Flash Flood Watches were in effect for parts of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northwestern Florida, and western Georgia. There may also be enough low level wind shear to produce tornadoes when the rainbands in the eastern side of the circulation when it moves inland.