Tag Archives: Tampa Bay

Tropical Storm Helene Forms Over Northwest Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Helene formed over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 84.5°W which put the center about 175 miles (280 km) south of the western tip of Cuba.  Helene was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Englewood, Florida.  The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico.  The Hurricane Watch includes Cancun and Cozumel.  A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower Florida Keys west of Seven Mile Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cancun and Cozumel.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Middle Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Flamingo, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Walton/Bay County Line to Indian Pass, Florida.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found that a low pressure system previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine had strengthened over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday morning.  Based on data collected by the reconnaissance flight, the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Helene.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Helene exhibited more organization on Tuesday.  The reconnaissance plane found a well defined low level center of circulation.  Even though the circulation around Helene was more organized, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Helene.  Bands in the western side of Helene consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  More thunderstorms were starting to develop in the bands in the western side of Helene’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Helene began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Helene was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the eastern side of Helene’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Helene were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Helene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Helene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern Caribbean Sea.   The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Helene will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Helene is likely to strengthen to a hurricane by Wednesday morning.

Tropical Storm Helene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Helene toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Helene will be near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday morning.  Helene will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.  Helene is likely to approach northern Florida on Thursday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Helene is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula and to western Cuba.

Tropical Storm Helene could be a major hurricane when it approaches northern Florida on Thursday.  Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Florida.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods.  Helene could also cause a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) along portions of the coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Flamingo, Florida.  The Storm Surge Watch includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

Hurricane Debby Moves Inland over North Florida

Hurricane Debby moved inland over North Florida on Monday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Debby was located at latitude 29.9°N and longitude 83.4°W which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) southeast of Perry, Florida.  Debby was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Yankeetown to Indian Pass, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Yankeetown to Boca Grande, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Mexico Beach, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from St. Augustine, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina.

The center of Hurricane Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida on Monday morning.  The maximum sustained wind speed in Hurricane Debby was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) at the time of landfall.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and eastern parts of Debby’s circulation.  Bands in the southern and western parts of Hurricane Debby consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of winds speeds around Hurricane Debby was also asymmetrical at the time of landfall.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the eastern side of Debby’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the eastern half of Hurricane Debby.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles in the western half of Debby’s circulation.

Hurricane Debby will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system and an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Debby toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Debby will move across northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia.  The steering currents could weaken during the  middle of the week and Debby could meander near the coast of South Carolina.

Hurricane Debby will weaken to a tropical storm as it moves inland over northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia.  Debby will continue to produce strong winds and electricity outages are likely.  Hurricane Debby will drop heavy rain over northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia.  Widespread flooding could occur.  If Debby stalls near South Carolina later this week, then prolonged heavy rain could occur.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.

Hurricane Debby will continue to cause a storm surge along the coast of west Florida while southwest winds blow water toward the coast.  The storm surge could be as high as 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Longboat Key to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Storm Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Georgia to South Santee River, South Carolina.

Debby Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Debby strengthened to a hurricane over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Debby was located at latitude 28.6°N and longitude 84.0°W which put the center about 65 miles (105 km) west-southwest of Cedar Key, Florida.  Debby was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Yankeetown to Indian Pass, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Yankeetown to Boca Grande, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Mexico Beach, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ponte Vedre Beach, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina.

Reconnaissance aircraft found hurricane force winds in the northeastern part of former Tropical Storm Debby on Sunday night.  The aircraft also found that the minimum surface pressure had decreased to 985 mb.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Debby’s circulation several times.  However, drier air from the western side of Hurricane Debby caused breaks in the eyewall each time.  There was only a partial eyewall on the eastern side of Hurricane Debby on Sunday night.  There were only showers and lower clouds on the western side of of the center of Debby.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Debby.  Bands in the western side of Debby consisted of primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Hurricane Debby.  The winds were weaker in the western side of Debby’s circulation.  Hurricane force winds extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Debby.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Debby.

Hurricane Debby will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Debby will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S.  The trough will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Debby’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Debby will also pull more drier air around the western side of its circulation.  The wind shear and dry air are likely to prevent intensification during the next few hours.

Hurricane Debby will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system and the upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Debby toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Debby will make landfall in Apalachee Bay on Monday morning.

Hurricane Debby will bring strong winds and heavy rain to part of north Florida.  Heavy rain could cause flooding in some locations.

Flood Watches were in effect for parts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.

Hurricane Debby could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Longboat Key to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Storm Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Georgia to South Santee River, South Carolina.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Longboat Key.  The Storm Surge Watch includes Charlotte Harbor.

Tropical Storm Debby Forms North of Cuba

Tropical Storm Debby formed north of Cuba on Saturday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located at latitude 23.4°N and longitude 83.2°W which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) west-southwest of Key West, Florida. Debby was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River to Ochlockonee River, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River to Yankeetown, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Cape Sable to Suwannee River, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys west of Seven Mile Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Dry Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Channel 5 Bridge,  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Mexico Beach, Florida.

Former Tropical Depression Four strengthened on Saturday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Debby.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Debby after it moved north of Cuba.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Debby.  Storm’s near the center of Debby’s circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Debby was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the eastern half of Debby’s circulation.  Winds in the western side of Debby were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Debby Four will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Debby will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Debby’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Debby will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Debby is likely to intensify slowly as it moves away from Cuba.  Tropical Storm Debby is likely to intensify more rapidly when it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.  Debby could strengthen to a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Debby will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Debby toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Debby will approach the coast of north Florida on Monday.

Tropical Storm Debby will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Florida.  Heavy rain could cause flooding in some locations.  Tropical Storm Debby could also cause a storm surge of up to 8 feet (2.3 meters) along the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Aripeka to Indian Pass, Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Aripeka, Florida.  The Storm Surge Watch includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. 

Tropical Depression Four Forms South of Cuba

Tropical Depression Four formed south of Cuba on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Four was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 79.7°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) south of Caibarien, Cuba and about 260 miles (415 km) south-southeast of Key West, Florida.  Tropical Depression Four was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Dry Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from south of Card Sound Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca Grande to the mouth of the Suwannee River, Florida.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed over the Caribbean Sea south of Cuba in a tropical wave previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Four.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Depression Four on Friday night.  Thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Depression Four.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Four will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Depression Four will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical depression.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Four is likely to intensify slowly as long as the center of the depression is near Cuba. The tropical depression is likely to intensify more rapidly when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Depression Four will moving around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Tropical Depression Four toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Four will move across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico.  The tropical depression is likely to move toward the north during the weekend when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.

Tropical Depression Four is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Florida during the weekend.  Heavy rain could cause widespread flooding.  Tropical Depression Four could also cause a storm surge along the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Mouth of the Suwannee River, Florida.  The Storm Surge Watch includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

Tropical Storm Idalia Causes Hurricane Warning for West Coast of Florida

The imminent threat posed by Tropical Storm Idalia caused the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for the west coast of Florida on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 85.2°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of the western end of Cuba. Idalia was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Ochlockonee River to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the Cuban Province of Pinar del Rio. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portions of the coast from Englewood to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida and from the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cozumel. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban Province. of Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Lower Florida Keys west of Seven Mile Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

Tropical Storm Idalai strengthened gradually on Monday morning. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Idalia’s circulation. Even though Tropical Storm Idalia was stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms in Idalia were in bands in the southern and eastern parts of the circulation. Bands north and west of the center of circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Storm Idalia was under the eastern part of an upper level ridge over the Yucatan Peninsula. The ridge was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Idalia’s circulation. Those winds were causing vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Idalia will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Idalia will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move into a region between the upper level ridge over the Yucatan Peninsula and an upper level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level winds are weaker between the ridge and the low and there will be less vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Idalia will intensify to a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Idalia could intensify rapidly when the upper level winds weaken. Idalia could strengthen to a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Idalia will move around the western end of high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Idalia toward the north during the next 24 hours. The center of Idalia will pass near the western end of Cuba in a few hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Idalia will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday night. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will turn Idalia toward the northeast later on Tuesday. Idalia is likely to make landfall on the west coast of Florida on Wednesday morning. Idalia could make landfall as a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Idalia will drop heavy rain over parts of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Idalia could be be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of Florida. Idalia is likely to make landfall in an area where high storm surges can occur. Idalia could cause a storm surge of up to 12 feet (3.5 meters) near where the center makes landfall. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Ocholockonee River, Florida. The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay. Idalia will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of central and northern Florida. Widespread outages of electricity are likely. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Franklin rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale was over the Atlantic Ocean southwest of Bermuda. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Franklin was located at latitude 27.8°N and longitude 71.0°W which put it about 480 miles (770 km) southwest of Bermuda. Franklin was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Idalia Prompts Hurricane Watch for West Coast of Florida

A risk posed by Tropical Storm Idalia prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for part of the west coast of Florida. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 85.5°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) east-southeast of Cozumel. Idalia was moving toward the northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (60 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Indian Pass, Florida. The Hurricane Watch included Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cozumel. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Cuban Province. of Pinar del Rio. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Chokoloskee, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Isle of Youth.

Tropical Storm Idalia did not change a lot on Sunday afternoon. A few more thunderstorms developed near the low level center of circulation. The low level center of circulation was meandering around inside of a larger counterclockwise rotation over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. There were bands of showers and thunderstorms in the larger counterclockwise circulation. The thunderstorms in the larger circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the low level center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Idalia will be in an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Idalia will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will be under an upper level ridge over the Yucatan Channel. The winds are weak in the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, much of the air moving around the western side of Tropical Storm Idalia will pass over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Some of the air in the eastern side of the Idalia will pass over western Cuba. The flow of air over land will inhibit intensification, but it probably will not prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Idalia could intensify slowly during the next 12 hours. Idalia could intensify more quickly on Monday when it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Idalia is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by Monday night

.Tropical Storm Idalia will be in a region where the steering currents are weak during the next 12 hours. Idalia may not move much during that time period. A high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean will start to steer Idalia toward the north on Monday. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Idalia will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. could start to turn Idalia toward the northeast later on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Idalia will drop heavy rain over parts of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Idalia is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the west coast of Florida. Idalia is likely to make landfall in an area where high storm surges can occur. Idalia could cause a storm surge of up to 11 feet (3.3 meters) near where the center makes landfall. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Indian Pass, Florida. The Storm Surge Watch includes Tampa Bay.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Franklin was over the Atlantic Ocean southwest of Bermuda. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Franklin was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 70.0°W which put it about 535 miles (855 km) southwest of Bermuda. Franklin was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Hurricane Ian Moves Closer to Southwest Florida

Hurricane Ian moved closer to Southwest Florida on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 24.9°N and longitude 82.9°W which put it about 110 miles (175 km) southwest of Naples, Florida. Ian was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Anclote River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for all of the Florida Keys. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Chokoloskee, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropcial Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Bimini and Grand Bahama Island.

Hurricane Ian appeared to go through a quick eyewall replacement cycle on Tuesday evening. The original eye and eyewall quickly dissipated and a new larger eye was evident on satellite and radar images. The new eye had a diameter of 35 miles (55 km). The new eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ian’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the hurricane.

The quick eyewall replacement cycle temporarily interrupted the intensification of Hurricane Ian, but it also caused the circulation around Ian to get bigger. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.2. Hurricane Ian was capable of causing regional major damage.

Ian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear is not likely to be strong enough during the next 12 hours to prevent intensification of Hurricane Ian. Ian could strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday morning. The upper level winds are likely to get stronger on Wednesday afternoon which would cause the wind shear to increase. Hurricane Ian is likely to start to weaken slowly when the vertical wind shear increases.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Ian toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Ian could make landfall on the coast of Southwest Florida between Ft. Myers and Sarasota on Wednesday afternoon. Ian could move slowly inland over Central Florida on Thursday. Hurricane Ian is likely to bring a prolonged period of strong gusty winds to Southwest Florida and to Central Florida. Ian will be capable of causing major damage. A prolonged period of strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages. Hurricane Ian will move slowly inland and 10 to 20 inches of rain could fall in some locations. Extensive fresh water flooding could occur in Central Florida. A storm surge of 8 to 12 feet (2.4 to 3.5 meters) could occur along the coast of Southwest Florida.

The center of Hurricane Ian could make landfall near the location where Hurricane Charley made landfall in 2004. Ian will not be as strong as Charley was in 2004, but Ian will be a lot bigger than Charley. Hurricane Ian could be stronger than Hurricane Irma was in 2017 when Irma hit Southwest Florida, but Ian will not be as big as Irma was.

Hurricane Ian Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 2

Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale south of Cuba on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 83.2°W which put it about 155 miles (250 km) southeast of the western tip of Cuba. Ian was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Anclote River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Suwannee River, Florida and from Englewood to Bonita Beach, Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Key West including the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Englewood, Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Jupiter Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee.

Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified to Category 2 over the northwestern Caribbean Sea south of Cuba on Monday afternoon. A circular eye with a diameter of 13 miles (20 km) formed at the center of Ian’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a nearly complete ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ian. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away form the hurricane in all directions. The removal of large quantities of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Ian got bigger on Monday afternoon as Ian got stronger. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 16.5 The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.1. Hurricane Ian was capable of causing regional serious damage.

Hurricane Ian will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Ian is likely to intensify rapidly during the next 24 hours. Ian is likely to intensify to a major hurricane during the next 18 hours. Hurricane Ian could intensify to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale by Wednesday.

Hurricane Ian will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ian toward the north-northwest during the next 12 hours. Ian will move toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Ian will be near western Cuba on Tuesday morning. Hurricane Ian could be a major hurricane when it approaches western Cuba. Ian will be southwest of Tampa, Florida on Wednesday afternoon.

Hurricane Ian will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to western Cuba. Ian will be capable of causing regional major damage in western Cuba. Widespread outages of electricity are likely. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

The steering currents could weaken on Wednesday. If the steering currents weaken, the center of Hurricane Ian could stall just west or northwest of the area around Tampa and St. Petersburg. The strongest winds will be in the eastern side of Ian’s circulation. The area around Tampa and St. Petersburg could experience a prolonged period of strong winds. When the center of Ian is west of Tampa, the winds will blow from the south in the area around Tampa. Southerly winds will push water into Tampa Bay and a storm surge of 5 to 10 feet (1.5 to 3.0 meters) is possible. If Hurricane Ian stalls, some locations in west central Florida could receive 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm) of rain. Heavy rain is likely to cause fresh water flooding.

Elsa Strengthens Back to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened back to a hurricane on Tuesday evening. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Elsa was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 83.1°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) south-southwest of Tampa, Florida. Elsa was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Flamingo to Egmont Key and from the Steinhatchee River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida. That warning included Naples, and Ft. Myers. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

Former Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened gradually throughout the day on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation and an eye appeared to be forming at the center of Elsa. Storms near near the center of circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of more mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease, which caused the wind speed to increase. The distribution of thunderstorms around Hurricane Elsa remained asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Elsa. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Elsa.

Hurricane Elsa will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hurricane Elsa. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear that will inhibit intensification. However, the southwesterly winds may also increase upper level divergence to the northeast of Elsa. Additional upper level divergence could cause the surface pressure to continue to decrease. Hurricane Elsa could intensify a little more on Tuesday night.

Hurricane Elsa will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high will steer Elsa toward the north on Tuesday night. Hurricane Elsa will turn toward the northeast on Wednesday when it reaches the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. On its anticipated track the center of Elsa will pass just to the west of Tampa on Tuesday night. Hurricane Elsa could make landfall near Cedar Key on Wednesday. The stronger winds and heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of Hurricane Elsa. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. After the center of Elsa moves north of Tampa, southwesterly winds will push water into Tampa Bay which could cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters). Hurricane Elsa could cause a storm surge of 2 to 5 feet (0.6 to 1.6 m) along other parts of the west coast of Florida. A higher storm surge could occur near Cedar Key when the center of Elsa makes landfall. Gusty winds could cause power outages in Florida and southeastern Georgia.