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Tropical Cyclone Freddy Passes North of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Freddy passed north of Mauritius on Monday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 56.0°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius. Freddy was moving toward the west-southwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy passed north of Mauritius on Monday morning. Bands in the southern side of Freddy’s circulation brought gusty winds and heavy rain to Mauritius. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.3. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was stronger than Hurricane Harvey was, when Harvey hit the coast of Texas in 2017. Freddy was similar in size to Harvey. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. Concentric eyewalls would cause an eyewall replacement cycle that would cause Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be north of La Reunion later today. Bands in the southern side of Freddy’s circulation will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mauritius and La Reunion during the next 24 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will approach the east coast of Madagascar in 24 hours. Freddy is likely to still be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Passes North of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Freddy passed north of Rodrigues on Sunday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 17.6°S and longitude 63.2°E which put it about 140 miles (225 km) north of Rodrigues. Freddy was moving toward the west-southwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it passed north of Rodrigues on Sunday morning. Bands in the southern side of Freddy’s circulation brought gusty winds and rain to Rodrigues. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.6. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida, when Ida hit the coast of Louisiana in 2021. Freddy was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. Concentric eyewalls would likely cause an eyewall replacement cycle that would cause Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken temporarily.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be north of Mauritius in less than 24 hours. Freddy will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues until it moves farther away. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will also affect Mauritius, La Reunion and Madagascar. Bands in the southern side of Freddy’s circulation will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mauritius and La Reunion on Monday. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will approach the east coast of Madagascar in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Moves East-Northeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved east-northeast of Rodrigues on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 68.8°E which put it about 430 miles (690 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues. Freddy was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy was still the equivalent of a major hurricane. The circulation around Freddy was very close to being in equilibrium with the environment around it. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 37.7. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey, when Harvey hit the coast of Texas in 2017. Freddy was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy has a structure similar to an annular hurricane. Tropical cyclones with a structure like an annular hurricane tend to maintain nearly a steady intensity.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be north of Rodrigues in 24 hours. Freddy could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could eventually threaten Mauritius, La Reunion and Madagascar. Freddy could be north of Mauritius in 48 hours and it could be near the east coast of Madagascar in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Passes South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Freddy passed south of Diego Garcia on Friday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 73.2°E which put it about 580 miles (935 km) south of Diego Garcia. Freddy was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Freddy was still the equivalent of a major hurricane as it passed south of Diego Garcia on Friday. A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.8.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Freddy, then concentric eyewalls could form. That would start an eyewall replacement cycle that would cause Freddy to weaken temporarily.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be northeast of Rodrigues in 48 hours. Freddy could eventually threaten Mauritius, La Reunion and Madagascar in a few days. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could approach Mauritius in 72 hours and it could be near the east coast of Madagascar in four days.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Still Moving West

Tropical Cyclone Freddy was still moving westward over the South Indian Ocean on Thursday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 78.8°E which put it about 720 miles (1165 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Freddy was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Freddy continued to move toward the west over the South Indian Ocean. A smallcircular eye with a diameter of 8 miles (13 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 30.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.6.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing small inner core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy, then concentric eyewalls could form. That would start an eyewall replacement cycle that would cause Freddy to weaken temporarily.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move south of Diego Garcia in 36 hours. Freddy could eventually threaten Mauritius, La Reunion and Madagascar in a few days. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could be northeast of Rodrigues in three days. Freddy could approach Mauritius in four days and it could be near the east coast of Madagascar in five days.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dingani completed a transition to an extratropical cyclone. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of former Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 31.5°S and longitude 67.7°E which put it about 860 miles (1385 km) south-southeast of Rodrigues. Dingani was moving toward the south at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean east-southeast of Cocos Islands on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 102.5°E which put it about 450 miles (720 km) east-southeast of Cocos Islands. Freddy was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Saturday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) formed at the center of Freddy’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds occurred in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Freddy was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.5.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours. Since the circulation around Freddy is small, the inner end of a rainband could wrap around the existing eye and eyewall. If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Tropical Cyclone to weaken during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy could be south of Cocos Islands in 36 hours. The core of Freddy and the strongest winds will pass south of Cocos Islands. Bands on the northern edge of Freddy’s circulation could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Cocos Islands.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dingani moved south-southeast of Diego Garcia. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 77.8°E which put it about 740 miles (1195 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Dingani was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Darian Strengthens Back to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Darian strengthened back to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Diego Garcia on Monday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Darian was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 84.5°E which put it about 1060 miles (1710 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Darian was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

After completing several eyewall replacement cycles during the past 36 hours, Tropical Cyclone Darian strengthened back to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean far to the southeast of Diego Garcia. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Darian’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Darian. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The completed eyewall replacements cycles increased the size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Darian. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Darian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (305 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Darian was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.0.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move through an environment favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Darian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the core of Tropical Cyclone Darian, then another eyewall replacement cycle could begin. A new eyewall replacement cycle would cause Darian to weaken again. Tropical Cyclone Darian will move over cooler water later this week, which is likely to cause a steadier weakening trend.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Darian toward the southwest during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Darian will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia. Darian could be southeast of Rodrigues in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Darian Intensifies to Nearly Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Darian intensified to nearly the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Darian was located at latitude 12.4°S and longitude 83.6°E which put it about 850 miles (1375 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Darian was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 920 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Darian appeared to go through an eyewall replacement cycle on Thursday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the original eye and eyewall. Two concentric eyewalls were evident on some microwave satellite images. Darian weakened during the eyewall replacement cycle. The original inner eyewall eventually dissipated and Tropical Cyclone Darian intensified rapidly on Friday. The new eyewall contracted around the center of Darian and a small eye was at the center of circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Darian. Storm near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The size of Tropical Cyclone Darian increased after the eyewall replacement cycle. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Darian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Darian was 33.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 54.0.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move through an environment favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Darian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Darian could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then another eyewall replace cycle could begin. An eyewall replacement cycle would cause Darian to weaken again.

An upper level trough west of Australia will strengthen during the next 36 hours. Northwesterly winds blowing around the western side of the trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Darian toward the south-southeast during that time period. On its anticipated track Darian will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Ellie dropped locally heavy rain over parts of the Northern Territory in Australia. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ellie was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 131.0°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) north-northwest of Daly Waters, Australia. Ellie was moving toward the south-southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Darian Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Darian rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean east-southeast of Diego Garcia on Tuesday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Darian was located at latitude 14.0°S and longitude 92.7°E which put it about 1255 miles (2355 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Darian was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Darian continued to intensify rapidly on Tuesday. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Darian’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Darian. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The size of Tropical Cyclone Darian increased as it intensified rapidly. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Darian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Darian was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.9.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move through an environment favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Darian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Darian could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replace cycle could begin. An eyewall replacement cycle would cause Darian to weaken temporarily.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move around the northern part of a subtropical high pressure system north of the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Darian toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Darian will be southeast of Diego Garcia later this week.

Hurricane Roslyn Hits West Coast of Mexico

Hurricane Roslyn hit the west coast of Mexico on Sunday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located at latitude 22.1°N and longitude 105.5°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) northwest of Tepic, Mexico. Roslyn was moving toward the north-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Escuinapa, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Puerto Vallarta. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Escuinapa to Mazatlan, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico and from Escuinapa to Mazatlan, Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Roslyn made landfall on the west coast of Mexico north of San Blas on Sunday morning. Roslyn was a major hurricane at the time of landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Roslyn’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.6. Hurricane Roslyn was capable of causing localized major damage.

An upper level trough west of Baja California and a high pressure system over Mexico will steer Hurricane Roslyn quickly toward the northeast on Sunday. Roslyn will bring strong winds and drop locally heavy rain over Nayarit. Strong winds are likely to cause damage and electricity outages. Hurricane Roslyn will weaken steadily as it moves inland over western Mexico. Even though it will weaken, Roslyn could also drop locally heavy rain over southern Durango. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some parts of Nayarit and southern Durango.