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Hurricane Irma Strengthens to Cat. 4, Watch in effect for Puerto Rico

Hurricane Irma strengthened to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday and a Hurricane Watch was issued for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Irma was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 54.4°W which put it about 490 miles (790 km) east of the Leeward Islands.  Irma was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy.  Hurricane Watches are in effect for Guadeloupe, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Guadeloupe.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Dominica.

The circulation of Hurricane Irma has been going through a series of eyewall replacement cycles.  A plane flying through Irma reported concentric eyewalls earlier today.  The two eyewalls appear to have merged.  A small circular eye is at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounds the eye and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Hurricane Irma.  Storms around the center are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping away mass in all directions from the hurricane.

Hurricane Irma has been increasing in size.  Winds to hurricane force extend out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Irma is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 13.6.  The Hurricane Wind Intensity Size index (HWISI) is 38.7.

Hurricane Irma will move through an environment very favorable for tropical cyclones.  Irma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Irma could strengthen further and it has a chance to reach Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  Hurricane Irma is likely to go through additional eyewall replacement cycles, which will cause fluctuations in its intensity, but Irma should remain a strong hurricane as it nears the northern Leeward Islands.

The subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean has been steering Hurricane Irma toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 24 hours.  After that time Irma is expected to turn more toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Irma will approach the northern Leeward Islands late on Tuesday.  Hurricane Irma could approach Puerto Rico on Wednesday.

Hurricane Irma Moves Toward Leeward Islands, Watches Issued

Hurricane Irma moved toward the northern Leeward Islands on Sunday and Hurricane Watches were issued for a number of those islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Irma was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 51.0°W which put it about 710 miles (1145 km) east of the Leeward Islands.  Irma was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Hurricane Watches were in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St, Martin, and St. Barthelemy.

The circulation of Hurricane Irma is very well organized.  There is a nearly circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (48 km) at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in the northeastern part of the ring.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Hurricane Irma.  Thunderstorms around the core are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away in all directions from the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extend out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Irma is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 11.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 32.3.

Hurricane Irma will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Irma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C and there is warmer water farther west.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Irma could intensify into a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  There is a possibility that Irma could strengthen to Category 5 when it passes near the northern Leeward Islands and moves toward the Bahamas.  Hurricane Irma has already completed several eyewall replacement cycles and there could be more.  Each eyewall replacement cycle could result in fluctuations in the intensity of Hurricane Irma.

A strong subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean is steering Hurricane Irma toward the west-southwest.  The high is forecast to weaken just a bit during the next several days and Hurricane Irma is expected to move more toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Irma will approach the northward Leeward Islands on Tuesday night.  It will be a strong, dangerous hurricane at that time.

Tropical Storm Harvey Moves Into Louisiana, Irma Strengthens Quickly

Tropical Storm Harvey finally moved into Louisiana on Wednesday after lingering for several days over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Harvey weakened to a tropical depression after it moved inland.  At the same time a new tropical storm named Irma strengthened quickly over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Harvey was located at latitude 31.7°N and longitude 92.3°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) north-northeast of Alexandria, Louisiana.  Harvey was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

After dropping record rainfall and causing destructive floods of parts of southeastern Texas and western Louisiana, Tropical Depression Harvey finally started to move steadily toward the north-northeast on Wednesday.  Harvey was still producing heavy rain over parts of western Louisiana, but the fact that it was moving should limit the total rainfall at any location.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms on the far eastern periphery of Harvey’s circulation were also dropping heavy rain.  Some of those thunderstorms were strong enough to approach severe criteria.  Tropical Depression Harvey is forecast to move toward the Ohio River Valley during the next several days and it will bring windy, wet weather to the Middle Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys.  Rain associated with the circulation of Tropical Depression Harvey could also reach the Mid-Atlantic States later this week.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Irma was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 32.2°W which put it about 545 miles (875 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Irma was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Irma organized quickly on Wednesday.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms formed and began to revolve around a well organized center of circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of Irma generated well developed upper level divergence which pumped away mass in all direction.  There were occasional satellite images which hinted that an eye could be forming at the center of Tropical Storm Irma.

Tropical Storm Irma will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  Irma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Irma is likely to become a hurricane on Thursday and it could intensify rapidly if an eye forms.  Tropical Storm Irma is forecast to become a major hurricane and it could become one of the big classic Cape Verde hurricanes.

A strong subtropical high to the north of Irma is steering the tropical storm toward the west and a general westerly motion is forecast to continue for the next few days.  There is more divergence in the model guidance after a few days and the future track of Irma when it nears the Lesser Antilles is more uncertain.  Tropical Storm Irma has the potential to become a big dangerous hurricane and it will need to be watched carefully.

Tropical Storm Harvey’s Record Rains Continue Over Texas and Louisiana

The record setting rainfall from Tropical Storm Harvey continued over southeastern Texas and Louisiana on Tuesday morning.  A rain gauge southeast of Houston near Mary’s Creek at Winding Road has measured 49.20 inches (125 cm) of rain from Tropical Storm Harvey as of 9:00 a.m. CDT on Tuesday.  This total sets a new record for the most rainfall from a tropical cyclone over the contiguous 48 states of the U.S.  The previous record was 48 inches (122 cm) dropped by Tropical Cyclone Amelia in 1978 over Medina, Texas.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located at latitude 28.4°N and longitude 94.3°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana.  Harvey was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City to Grand Isle, Louisiana.

The center of Tropical Storm Harvey moved back over the Gulf of Mexico late on Monday and it is currently over the northwestern Gulf.  Harvey is still producing heavy rain over southeastern Texas and parts of Louisiana.  There is still a well defined center and strong counterclockwise rotation in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  Dry air wrapped around the circulation of Harvey and there are mainly lighter showers near the center of the tropical storm.  There are several stronger bands of thunderstorms on the eastern periphery of the circulation.  Those bands are dropping heavier rain over eastern Louisiana and parts of Mississippi.  The strong counterclockwise rotation is transporting moist air over land.  Increased friction over the land is causing more convergence which is pushing the air upwards.  Stronger rising motion is generating areas of heavier rain over southeast Texas and southern Louisiana.  In addition, the land is warming during the day, which is making the lower atmosphere more unstable and contributing to the heaver rain.

Flood Watches and Warnings are in effect from Northwest Florida to Southeast Texas because of the potential for more heavy rain.  Tropical Storm Harvey is finally starting to move slowly toward the north-northeast.  It should make a landfall on the coast of Louisiana early on Wednesday.  Tropical Storm Harvey will weaken as it moves farther inland and it should move over the Lower Mississippi River Valley as a tropical depression late this week.  The rain over southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana should end once Harvey moves farther inland.

Elsewhere, a low pressure system designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten was bringing gusty winds and higher waves to portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten was located at latitude 34.4°N and longitude 77.2°W which put it about 35 miles (60 km) west-southwest of Cape Lookout, North Carolina.  It was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten is forecast to merge with a front and become a strong extratropical cyclone over the western Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Depression Harvey Redevelops Southeast of Texas

A tropical depression redeveloped southeast of Texas from the remnants of former Tropical Storm Harvey on Wednesday morning.  The National Hurricane Center (NHC) began issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Harvey again.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Harvey was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 92.5°W which put it about 535 miles (860 km) southeast of Port O’Connor, Texas.  Harvey was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass, Texas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande River to Port Mansfield and from San Luis Pass to High Island, Texas.  NHC also issued a Storm Surge Watch for the portion of the coast from Port Mansfield to High Island.

A reconnaissance aircraft found that a distinct low level center had formed in the remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey on Wednesday morning.  The circulation in Tropical Depression Harvey was still in the process of organizing.  Stronger thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming outside the core of the circulation.  The distribution of showers and thunderstorms was somewhat asymmetrical.  There were more showers and thunderstorms in the eastern half of the circulation.  Although there were fewer showers and thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation, more storms were developing in that part of Tropical Depression Harvey.  The thunderstorms near the core were beginning to generate upper level divergence which was pumping away mass to the northeast of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Harvey will move through an environment that will become increasing favorable for intensification.  Harvey will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level low near the coast of Louisiana is causing some vertical wind shear.  However, the low is forecast to move north and weaken and the shear is forecast to decrease.  Tropical Depression Harvey may strengthen slowly at first while the circulation is organizing.  The rate of intensification will likely increase on Thursday and there could be a period of rapid intensification when the Harvey near hurricane intensity.

Tropical Depression Harvey is moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system which is steering Harvey toward the northwest.  Harvey is forecast to continue to move toward the northwest and it will approach Texas in about 48 hours.  The winds are the steering level are forecast to weaken when Harvey approaches Texas and it could move more slowly as it nears the coast.

Tropical Depression Harvey could evolve into a very dangerous storm.  The coast along the western Gulf of Mexico is very susceptible to storm surges.  An intensifying, slow moving hurricane could generate dangerous storm surges along the coast.  If Harvey stalls after it moves inland, it could drop very heavy rain and there is also the potential for dangerous fresh water flooding.

Tropical Storm Emily Makes Landfall on West Coast of Florida

Tropical Storm Emily made landfall on the west coast of Florida at Anna Maria Island late Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Emily was located at latitude 27.5°N and longitude 82.7°W which put it about 10 miles (15 km) northwest of Bradenton, Florida.  Emily was moving toward the east at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Bonita Beach, Florida.

Thunderstorms developed near the center of the non-tropical low pressure system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Latent energy released higher in the atmosphere by condensation in those storms created a warm core and the low pressure system made a transition to Tropical Storm Emily.  Thunderstorms near the core of Emily were generating a small area of upper level divergence.  Thunderstorms near the core, a warm core and upper level divergence are part of the typical structure of a tropical cyclone, which is why the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Storm Emily.  Emily has a well developed circulation, but most of the bands of showers and thunderstorms are in the eastern half of the tropical storm.  Drier air northwest of Emily and vertical wind shear are the probable causes of the asymmetrical distribution of precipitation.

Tropical Storm Emily is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of Central Florida.  A surface weather station in Sarasota (KSRQ) reported a sustained wind of 39 m.p.h. (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 49 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The Skyway Bridge over Tampa Bay was closed due to strong winds.

Tropical Storm Emily is likely to weaken as it moves eastward across Central Florida.  When Emily moves over the Atlantic Ocean, it will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Emily could strengthen back into a tropical storm at that time.

Emily is being steered toward the east by a high pressure system north of the tropical storm.  An upper level trough over the Midwestern U.S. is forecast to move southeastward.  When Emily reaches the Atlantic Ocean southwesterly winds ahead of the trough will turn the tropical storm toward the northeast.

Non-Tropical Low Forms Over Northeast Gulf of Mexico

A non-tropical low pressure system formed over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.  The low pressure system is currently designated as Invest 98L.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Invest 98L was located at latitude 28.4°N and longitude 85.5°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida.  It was moving toward the east at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

The low pressure system formed along a frontal boundary that stalled over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.  It is not usual for low pressure systems to form along stationary fronts.  A source of positive vorticity to provide counterclockwise rotation and upper level divergence to pump away mass and allow the surface pressure to decrease will generate a surface low.  The low pressure system does not have a warm core in the middle and upper levels and it is still associated with a frontal system.  So, it is classified as a non-tropical low pressure system.

The low pressure system will be moving through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for a transition to a tropical or subtropical cyclone.  The Sea Surface Temperature in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is near 30°C.  So, there is plenty of energy to support the formation of a tropical cyclone.  However, an upper level ridge over the central U.S. and a trough over the northeastern U.S. are combining to produce northerly winds of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Those winds are generating significant vertical wind shear.  The shear has limited the development of thunderstorms in the northern half of the low and it may be tilting the vertical structure of the low toward the south.  The strong upper level winds will also inhibit divergence on the northern side of the low and they could make it difficult for a warm core to develop in the middle and upper levels.  The air north of the frontal boundary is drier continental air, which is another a negative factor for transition to a tropical cyclone.  Based on all of the environmental factors the National Hurricane Center is indicating that there is a 30% chance the low could make a transition to a tropical or subtropical cyclone.

The low pressure system is moving a little to the south of due east.  A strong surface high pressure system over the eastern U.S. is now pushing the front toward the south as a cold front.  The low is moving slowly eastward along the front.  Combination of the southward motion of the front and eastward motion of the low produces a forecast motion of a little south of due east.  On its anticipated track the low pressure system could reach the west coast of Florida in 24 to 36 hours.  So, the low has about a day, if it is going to transition to a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Depression Cindy Brings Stormy Weather to Southern U.S.

Tropical Depression Cindy brought stormy weather to parts of the southern U.S. on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Cindy was located at latitude 33.1°N and 93.5°W which put it about 70 miles (115 km) southwest of Little Rock, Arkansas.  Cindy was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 20 m.p.h. (30 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall early on Thursday morning near the border between Texas and Louisiana.  Cindy moved steadily northward during the day and it was centered over southwestern Arkansas by Thursday night.  Broad counterclockwise rotation around Cindy transported warm and very humid air over the southern U.S.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms dropped locally heavy rain in some places.  Rivers and streams were above flood stage in several southern states.  Flash Flood Warnings and Flash Flood Watches were issued for portions of the southern U.S. and Ohio River Valley.  Several tornadoes formed in the bands of thunderstorms.  A tornado in Alabama caused property damage.  Southerly winds blowing toward the shore were still causing storm surges along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Depression Cindy is forecast to move northeast toward the Ohio River Valley on Friday.  It will continue to produce locally heavy rain.  A slow moving cold front will approach the region from the west.  A band of stronger convergence could develop where the counterclockwise flow around Cindy interacts with the flow along the cold front.  Higher rainfall totals may occur where this interaction happens.  Wind shear created by the interacting weather systems could also create the potential for some tornadoes.  Tropical Depression Cindy could merge with the cold front during Friday night or Saturday.

Tropical Storm Cindy Nears Northwest Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Cindy neared the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located at latitude 28.6°N and longitude 93.4°W which put it about 95 miles (150 km) south-southeast of Port Arthur, Texas.  Cindy was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Grand Isle, Louisiana.

Tropical Cyclone Cindy exhibits a hybrid structure in which a broad surface low pressure system is interacting with an upper low centered near the Upper Texas coast.  There is a distinct center of low pressure at the surface.  A band of showers and thunderstorms is northwest of the surface center.  Drier air in the middle and upper levels wraps around the southern and eastern sides of the center and there are no thunderstorms in those quadrants of the core of Tropical Storm Cindy.  A broad flow of moisture is producing bands of showers and thunderstorms in the outer portions of the eastern and northern sides of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Cindy is moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system centered over the Atlantic Ocean.  The subtropical high is steering Cindy toward the north-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cindy will make landfall near the border between Texas and Louisiana on Thursday.  Cindy will turn toward the north and then the tropical storm will move northeastward on Friday.

Some locations will experience prolonged periods of rainfall and fresh water flooding will be possible in those area.  There could also be a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 3 meters) near where the center makes landfall.  A few tornadoes could be spun up as rainbands move over the coast.

Tropical Storm Cindy Strengthens Over the Central Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Cindy strengthened on Tuesday night as is moved slowly over the Central Gulf of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located at latitude 26.4°N and longitude 91.0°W which put it about 305 miles (495 km) southeast of Galveston, Texas.  Cindy was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to the Alabama/Florida border including Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

Although Tropical Storm Cindy does not look very impressive on infrared satellite imagery, data from reconnaissance aircraft and surface observations from buoys and ships indicate that it has strengthened during the past few hours.  Tropical Storm Cindy displays the structure of a highly sheared tropical storm.  There are no thunderstorms near the center of circulation.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms are in bands well to the east and north of the center of circulation.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Cindy is large and winds to tropical storm force extend out about 275 miles (445 km) northeast of the center.

A combination of an upper level low to the northwest of Cindy and an upper level ridge to the east of it have generated enough upper level divergence to cause the surface pressure to decrease.  The lower pressure at the center created a bigger pressure difference with the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean and the stronger pressure gradient force accelerated the wind speed.  So, even though the upper level low produced enough vertical wind shear to prevent a classical process of tropical intensification in Tropical Storm Cindy, the larger scale weather features combined to produce a stronger, larger tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Cindy could intensify a little more if the large scale environment pumps out more mass and the surface pressure decreases further.  The tropical storm could also intensify if the upper low moves farther away from Cindy and the wind shear decreases.  It is unlikely that Tropical Storm Cindy will intensify into a hurricane, but there is a slight possibility that could occur before it makes landfall.

The subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean is steering Tropical Storm Cindy slowly toward the northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 24 hours.  Cindy could gradually turn toward the north as it approaches the coast and the tropical storm will turn toward the northeast after it moves inland.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Cindy could approach the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night.

The large size of the circulation of Tropical Storm Cindy and its slow motion mean that locally heavy rain and flooding are the greater risks.  There is also the potential for rainbands to spin up tornadoes when they move onto the coast.  Southerly winds driving water toward the coast are already causing a storm surge along parts of the coast of Louisiana.  A storm surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) may be possible where the strongest winds strike the coast.