Tag Archives: Mexico

Tropical Storm Javier Moves West of Baja California

Tropical Storm Javier moved west of Baja California on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located at latitude 26.0°N and longitude 116.1°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) south-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Javier was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Eugenia, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Javier started to weaken on Saturday afternoon when it moved over colder water west of Baja California. The center of Javier moved over water where over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25˚C. Most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Javier weakened when it moved over colder water. The bands revolving around the center of Javier’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern half of Tropical Storm Javier. Winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Javier will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next few days. Javier will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though there will be little vertical wind shear, Tropical Storm Javier will be unable to extract enough energy for the ocean to intensify. Javier is likely to weaken gradually during the next few days.

Since most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Javier weakened, Javier will be steered by the winds lower in the atmosphere. Javier will move south of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Javier toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Javier will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Javier

Former Tropical Depression Eleven-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Javier over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Thursday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 111.7°W which put it about 235 miles (380 km) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Javier was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Thunderstorms became more concentrated near the center of former Tropical Depression Eleven-E on Thursday night and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Javier. The circulation around Tropical Storm Javier was still large. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Javier’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Javier.

Tropical Storm Javier will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Javier is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours. The large circulation around Javier could prevent it from intensifying quickly.

Tropical Storm Javier will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Javier toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Javier will move parallel to the southwest coast of Baja California.

Tropical Depression Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Depression Eleven-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located at latitude 18.9°N and longitude 110.5°W which put it about 280 miles (450 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. The tropical depression was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system south of Baja California on Thursday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Eleven-E. The circulation around Tropical Depression Eleven-E was large. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the tropical depression. Thunderstorms that develop near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Eleven-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. The large circulation around the tropical depression could prevent it from intensifying quickly.

Tropical Depression Eleven-E will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Eleven-E will move parallel to the southwest coast of Baja California.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Brings Rain to Northeast Mexico

A tropical wave designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four brought rain to northeastern Mexico on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 97.9°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southwest of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

A tropical wave designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four moved inland over northeastern Mexico during Saturday night. A center of circulation never formed in the lower levels of the of the tropical wave and so it never developed into a tropical depression or a tropical storm. The tropical wave will move northwest over the Lower Rio Grande Valley on Sunday. Thunderstorms in the tropical wave could drop locally heavy rain over northeastern Mexico and South Texas. Some places could receive 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm) of rain. The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Prompts Tropical Storm Warnings for Texas and Mexico

A weather system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four on Friday afternoon and Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for portions of the coasts of Texas and Mexico. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 94.5°W which put it about 400 miles (640 km) south-southeast of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Port Mansfield, Texas to Boca de Catan, Mexico.

A weather system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico exhibited more organization on Friday. However, observations from a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane on Friday afternoon indicated that there was not a well defined center of low level circulation in the weather system. The National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four in order to issue a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of South Texas. The government of Mexico also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the northern coast of Mexico.

More thunderstorms developed in Potential Tropical Cyclone Four on Friday afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms in the eastern half of the circulation appeared to be organizing into bands. The thunderstorms in Potential Tropical Cyclone Four began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the weather system.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 30˚C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak in that region and there will be little vertical wind shear. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is likely to intensify during the next 18 hours. A well defined low level center of circulation will have to develop in order for the system to become a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Four toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will make landfall south of Brownsville, Texas during Saturday night. It will bring locally heavy rain and gusty winds to South Texas and northern Mexico. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Ivette Develops Unexpectedly

Tropical Storm Ivette developed unexpectedly over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Ivette was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 113.9°W which put it about 445 miles (710 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Ivette was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Ten-E strengthened unexpectedly on Monday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Ivette. An upper level ridge west of Mexico had been producing moderate easterly winds that were blowing across the top of former Tropical Depression Ten-E’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear was blowing the tops off of any thunderstorms that tried to form in the tropical depression. The strengthen of the upper level winds weakened for a few hours on Monday, which caused the vertical wind shear to decrease. New thunderstorms formed in bands in the western half of former Tropical Depression Ten-E. Downdrafts in those thunderstorms transported stronger winds to the surface and the depression strengthened to Tropical Storm Ivette. Tropical storm force were occurring up to 90 miles (145 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Ivette’s circulation. The winds in the other quadrants were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ivette will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Ivette will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 27˚C. However, the upper level ridge west of Mexico will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Ivette is likely to weaken during the next 48 hours, although some fluctuations in intensity could occur if the strength of the upper level winds varies.

Tropical Storm Ivette will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ivette slowly toward the west during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ivette will move a little farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Depression Ten-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Saturday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 111.5°W which put it about 355 miles (570 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California exhibited more organization on Saturday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Ten-E. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Depression Ten-E was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the tropical depression. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Depression Ten-E was moving under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over northern Mexico. The upper level ridge was producing easterly winds that were blowing toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear was the primary reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Depression Ten-E will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, the upper level ridge over northern Mexico will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Depression Ten-E could strengthen to a tropical storm if the upper level winds weaken for a few hours. The tropical depression will move over cooler water on Monday, which will make the environment unfavorable for intensification.

Tropical Depression Ten-E will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over northern Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Tropical Depression Ten-E toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Ten-E will move farther away from Baja California.

Howard Weakens Back to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Howard weakened back to a tropical storm over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Baja California on Tuesday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Howard was located at latitude 23.1°N and longitude 118.4°W which put it about 540 miles (870 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California. Howard was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Former Hurricane Howard moved over cooler water west of Baja California on Tuesday evening and weakened back to a tropical storm. Tropical Storm Howard was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. Howard was unable to extract as much energy from the cooler water and thunderstorms around the tropical storm diminished. The strongest remaining thunderstorms were in the remnants of the northern eyewall. The rest of the former eyewall and the rainbands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Howard consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Howard.

Tropical Storm Howard will move through an environment unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next several days. Howard will continue to move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little the wind shear. The cooler water will cause Tropical Storm Howard to continue to weaken even though there will be little vertical wind shear.

Hurricane Howard will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Howard toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Howard will move farther way from Baja California.

Howard Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Howard rapidly intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Howard was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 114.4°W which put it about 330 miles (530 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Howard was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped completely around the center of Hurricane Howard on Monday afternoon and a circular eye was at the center of circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Howard. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The circulation around Hurricane Howard was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Howard. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

Hurricane Howard will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Howard will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little the wind shear. Hurricane Howard could continue to intensify rapidly during the next 12 hours. Howard will move over cooler water on Tuesday, which will cause it to start to weaken.

Hurricane Howard will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Howard toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Howard will move parallel to the coast of southern Baja California. The center of Howard will remain about 300 miles (480 km) southwest of southern Baja California.

Tropical Storm Howard Strengthens Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Howard strengthened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Howard was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 113.4°W which put it about 295 miles (475 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Howard was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Storm Howard exhibited much more organization on Monday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of Howard. An eye appeared to be forming at the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Howard. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The strongest winds were occurring in the inner end of the rainband that wrapped around the developing eye. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Howard.

Tropical Storm Howard will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Howard will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little the wind shear. Tropical Storm Howard will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours and it is likely to strengthen to a hurricane. Howard could intensify more rapidly after the eye and eyewall are fully formed.

Tropical Storm Howard will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over northern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Howard toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Howard will move parallel to the coast of southern Baja California. The center of Howard will remain about 300 miles (480 km) southwest of southern Baja California.