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Powerful Typhoon Hinnamnor Moves Toward Okinawa

Powerful Typhoon Hinnamnor moved toward Okinawa on Tuesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Hinnamnor was located at latitude 26.4°N and longitude 132.8°E which put it about 360 miles (575 km) east of Okinawa. Hinnamnor was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 910 mb.

Powerful Typhoon Hinnamnor was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Hinnamnor’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Hinnamnor. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Hinnamnor increased in size when the typhoon intensified. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Hinnamnor. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hinnamnor was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.9. Hinnamnor was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong typhoon during the next 24 hours. Hinnamnor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 30˚C. It will move through region where the winds at all levels of the troposphere are blowing from the east. Since the winds at different levels are blowing from the same direction, there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Hinnamnor could intensify during the next 24 hours, if the inner end of rainband does not wrap around the existing eye and eyewall. Hinnamnor could strengthen to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Typhoon Hinnamnor could to weaken temporarily.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will interact with a tropical depression that formed southeast of Okinawa during the next 24 hours. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday morning the tropical depression was centered at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 133.1°E which put it about 585 miles (945 km) southeast of Okinawa. The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will move toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours when its circulation interacts with the tropical depression. On its anticipated track Typhoon Hinnamnor will be near Minami Daito Jima in 12 hours. Hinnamnor could cause severe wind damage on Minami Daito Jima. Very heavy rain could cause flash floods. Typhoon Hinnamnor will also cause a significant storm surge along the coast of Minami Daito Jima. Widespread electrical outages are likely. The center of Hinnamnor could be south of Okinawa in 24 hours.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will eventually absorb the circulation around the tropical depression. Hinnamnor could move slowly around the southern Ryukyu Islands while it absorbs the depression. A prolonged period of strong winds and heavy rain could affect the southern Ryukyu Islands later this week.

Typhoon Hinnamnor Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Hinnamnor rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Hinnamnor was located at latitude 27.3°N and longitude 140.4°E which put it about 835 miles (1345 km) east of Okinawa. Hinnamnor was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Hinnamnor rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane in a very favorable environment over the Western North Pacific Ocean northwest of Chichi Jima. A small circular eye was at the center of Hinnamnor’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Hinnamnor. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. The removal of large quantities of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Hinnamnor was small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hinnamnor. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hinnamnor was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.8.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will move through an area favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Hinnamnor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 30˚C. It will move through region where the winds at all levels of the troposphere are blowing from the east. Since the winds at different levels are blowing from the same direction, there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Hinnamnor is likely to continue to intensify rapidly during the next 24 hours. Hinnamnor could strengthen to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends over Japan. The high pressure system will steer Hinnamnor toward the west during the 48 hours. On its anticipated track Typhoon Hinnamnor could approach the Ryukyu Islands in 48 hours. Hinnamnor will continue to produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain on Chichi Jima during the next few hours until it moves farther away. Typhoon Hinnamnor is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches the Ryukyu Islands.

Hinnamnor Rapidly Intensifies to a Typhoon Near Chichi Jima

Former Tropical Storm Hinnamnor rapidly intensified to a typhoon near Chichi Jima on Monday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Hinnamnor was located at latitude 27.4°N and longitude 142.2°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) north of Chichi Jima. Hinnamnor was moving toward the west at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Hinnamnor rapidly intensified to a typhoon in a favorable environment over the Western North Pacific Ocean near Chichi Jima. A small circular eye formed at the center of Hinnamnor’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Hinnamnor. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Hinnamnor was small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Hinnamnor. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hinnamnor was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 20.5.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will move through an area favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Hinnamnor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 30˚C. It will move through region where the winds at all levels of the troposphere are blowing from the east. Since the winds at different levels are blowing from the same direction, there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Hinnamnor is likely to continue to intensify rapidly during the next 24 hours. Hinnamnor could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Hinnamnor will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends over Japan. The high pressure system will steer Hinnamnor toward the west during the 48 hours. On its anticipated track Typhoon Hinnamnor could approach the Ryukyu Islands in 48 hours. Hinnamnor will continue to produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain on Chichi Jima during the next few hours until it moves farther away. Typhoon Hinnamnor could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches the Ryukyu Islands.

Darby Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Darby rapidly intensified to a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean between Mexico and Hawaii on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Darby was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 123.4°W which put it about 1050 miles (1690 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Darby was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Hurricane Darby continued to intensify rapidly on Monday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Hurricane Darby. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the small core of Hurricane Darby. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Darby’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

The circulation around Hurricane Darby was small but very symmetrical. Darby looked like a small, annular hurricane. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Darby was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 5.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.0.

Hurricane Darby will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Darby will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Darby could continue to intensify during the 18 hours. The small size of the circulation around Hurricane Darby means that the intensity could continue to change rapidly if the environmental conditions change. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the small core of Darby’s circulation, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Hurricane Darby to weaken.

Hurricane Darby will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Darby toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Darby will move farther away from Baja California. Darby will cross into the Central Pacific Ocean later this week.

Hurricane Darby Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 2

Hurricane Darby rapidly intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean between Mexico and Hawaii on Sunday night. At 6:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Darby was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 122.2°W which put it about 995 miles (1595 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Darby was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Hurricane Darby rapidly intensified on Sunday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was evident on infrared and microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the small core of Darby’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Darby’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

The circulation around Hurricane Darby was small but very symmetrical. Darby looked like a small, annular hurricane. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Darby was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 4.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 22.3.

Hurricane Darby will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Darby will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Darby is likely to continue to intensify during the 24 hours. Darby could strengthen to a major hurricane. The small size of the circulation around Hurricane Darby means that the intensity could continue to change rapidly if the environmental conditions change. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the small core of Darby’s circulation, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause fluctuations in intensity.

Hurricane Darby will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Darby toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Darby will move farther away from Baja California. Darby could cross into the Central Pacific Ocean later this week.

Hurricane Bonnie Churns Southwest of Baja California

Hurricane Bonnie churned over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 116.9°W which put it about 560 miles (905 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Hurricane Bonnie appeared to complete an eyewall replacement cycle on Thursday. The previous small eye and eyewall was replaced by a larger eye. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was present at the center of Bonnie on Thursday night. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Bonnie. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Bonnie was still small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Bonnie. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Bonnie was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 20.7.

Hurricane Bonnie will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Bonnie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bonnie’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Hurricane Bonnie is likely to weaken during the next 36 hours, as it moves over cooler water.

Hurricane Bonnie will move south of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bonnie toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Bonnie will move farther away from Baja California during the next several days.

Hurricane Bonnie Strengthens to Cat. 2

Hurricane Bonnie strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Acapulco, Mexico on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 100.3°W which put it about 210 miles (335 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Hurricane Bonnie continued to strengthen on Sunday. A small circular eye developed at the center of Bonnie’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Bonnie. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Bonnie was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Bonnie. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Bonnie was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.1.

Hurricane Bonnie will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bonnie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bonnie’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Hurricane Bonnie could intensify during the next 24 hours. Bonnie could strengthen to a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Hurricane Bonnie will move south of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Bonnie toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Bonnie will remain southwest of the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane Agatha Makes Landfall Near Puerto Angel, Mexico

Hurricane Agatha made landfall near Puerto Angel, Mexico on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Agatha was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 96.6°W which put it about 5 miles (10 km) west of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Agatha was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Salina Cruz to Barra de Tonala. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado and from Salina Cruz to Boca de Pijijiapan, Mexico.

Hurricane Agatha maintained its intensity until it made landfall on the southern coast of Mexico just to the west of Puerto Angel on Sunday afternoon. A reconnaissance aircraft reported a circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) at the center of Hurricane Agatha. The eye was also visible on satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. The ring of thunderstorms was weaker south of the eye. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Agatha. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Agatha increased slightly in size on Sunday. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Agatha’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Agatha was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.6.

An upper level trough over northern Mexico will steer Hurricane Agatha toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Agatha will move inland over Oaxaca. The center of Agatha could pass northwest of Tehuantepec and Salina Cruz on Monday night. Hurricane Agatha will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Oaxaca. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Agatha could produce a storm surge of ten feet (three meters) along portions of the coast of Oaxaca. Hurricane Agatha could cause localized serious damage.

The lower part of Hurricane Agatha’s circulation will weaken quickly when it moves over mountains in southern Mexico. The upper level trough over northern Mexico will steer the middle and upper parts of Agatha’s circulation toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. The middle and upper parts of Hurricane Agatha could emerge over the Bay of Campeche or northwest Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Those parts of Agatha’s circulation could contribute to the development of a tropical or subtropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico, northwest Caribbean Sea or western Atlantic Ocean later this week.

Hurricane Agatha Nears Southern Mexico

Hurricane Agatha neared southern Mexico on Monday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Agatha was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 97.3°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Agatha was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Salina Cruz to Barra de Tonala. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado and from Salina Cruz to Boca de Pijijiapan, Mexico.

Hurricane Agatha did not change much during Sunday night. A small circular eye was present at the center of Hurricane Agatha. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Agatha. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Agatha was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Agatha’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Agatha was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.5. The intensity of Hurricane Agatha was the same as the intensity of Hurricane Sally when Sally hit northwest Florida in 2020. Agatha was smaller than Sally was.

Hurricane Agatha will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Agatha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Agatha could strengthen a little before it reaches Mexico. An upper level trough over Baja California will approach Agatha as the hurricane makes landfall on the coast of Mexico. The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Agatha’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. More wind shear will make the environment less favorable for intensification. The circulation around Hurricane Agatha could pull drier air over Mexico into the western part of Agatha. More vertical wind shear and drier air could cause Hurricane Agatha to start to weaken just prior to landfall.

The upper level trough over Baja California will steer Agatha toward the northeast more quickly on Monday. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Agatha will make landfall on the coast of Mexico near Puerto Escondido and Puerto Angel in a few hours. Hurricane Agatha will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Oaxaca and Chiapas. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Agatha could produce a storm surge of ten feet (three meters) along portions of the coast of Oaxaca. Hurricane Agatha could cause localized serious damage.

Hurricane Agatha Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 2

Hurricane Agatha rapidly intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Sunday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Agatha was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 98.7°W which put it about 185 miles (290 km) southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Agatha was moving toward the northeast at 1 m.p.h. (2 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Salina Cruz to Barra de Tonala. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado and from Salina Cruz to Boca de Pijijiapan, Mexico.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found that Hurricane Agatha had rapidly intensified to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday afternoon. A small circular eye formed at the center of Hurricane Agatha. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Agatha. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Agatha was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Agatha’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Agatha was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.4.

Hurricane Agatha will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Agatha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Agatha is likely to intensify during the next 18 hours. An upper level trough over Baja California will approach Hurricane Agatha on Monday. The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Agatha’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. More wind shear will make the environment less favorable for intensification.

Hurricane Agatha will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Central America and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Agatha toward the northeast on Sunday night. The upper level trough over Baja California will steer Agatha toward the northeast more quickly on Monday. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Agatha will move approach the coast of Mexico near Puerto Escondido and Puerto Angel during the middle of Monday. Agatha could be a major hurricane when it nears the coast of Mexico. Hurricane Agatha will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Oaxaca. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Agatha could produce a storm surge of ten feet (three meters) along portions of the coast of Oaxaca. Hurricane Agatha could cause localized major damage.