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Hurricane Ian Pounds Southwest Florida

Hurricane Ian was pounding southwest Florida on Wednesday afternoon. At 3:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 26.7°N and longitude 82.2°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) west-southwest of Punta Gorda, Florida. Ian was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Anclote River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Melbourne and Daytona Beach. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina. The Hurricane Watch included Savannah, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for all of the Florida Keys. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Chokoloskee, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropcial Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Bimini and Grand Bahama Island.

The National Hurricane Center stated that the center of Hurricane Ian officially made landfall on Cayo Costa, west-northwest of Ft. Myers at 3:10 p.m. EDT on Wednesday. Ian was a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.7. Hurricane Ian was stronger and much bigger than Hurricane Charley was when Charley made landfall in Southwest Florida in 2004. Ian was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Laura, when Laura hit Lake Charles, Louisiana in 2020. Hurricane Ian was also similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Mexico Beach, Florida in 2018.

Hurricane Ian was producing strong gusty winds, locally heavy rain and a storm surge along the coast of Southwest Florida. A weather station maintained by the River, Estuary and Coastal Network at Redfish Pass, Florida reported a sustained wind speed of 94 m.p.h. (151 km/h) and a wind gust of 126 m.p.h. (203 km/h). A weather station at the Punta Gorda airport reported a wind gust of 124 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The Cape Coral Fire Department reported a wind gust of 110 m.p.h. (177 km/h). A station in Naples, Florida reported a storm surge of 9.05 feet (2.76 meters) and the water level was still rising. A station in Ft. Myers, Florida reported a storm surge of 5.76 feet (1.75 meters) and the water level was still rising.

An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Ian toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Ian will move inland over Southwest Florida. Ian will move across Central Florida on Thursday. Hurricane Ian is likely to bring a prolonged period of strong gusty winds to Southwest Florida and to Central Florida. Ian will be capable of causing severe damage. A prolonged period of strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages. Hurricane Ian will move slowly inland and 10 to 20 inches of rain could fall in some locations. Fresh water flooding could occur in Central Florida. A storm surge of up to 12 to 16 feet (3.5 to 5 meters) could occur along the coast of Southwest Florida.

The center of Hurricane Ian could be near the east coast of Florida on Thursday afternoon. Hurricane Ian could bring strong, gusty winds to the coast of the Southeastern U.S. on Thursday night and Friday. The wind will blow water toward the coast and water levels will rise along the coast.

Hurricane Ian Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 4

Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it approached the coast of Southwest Florida early on Wednesday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 26.0°N and longitude 82.7°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southwest of Punta Gorda, Florida. Ian was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Anclote River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for all of the Florida Keys. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Chokoloskee, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropcial Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Bimini and Grand Bahama Island.

Hurricane Ian completed a quick eyewall replacement cycle during Tuesday night. The original eye and eyewall quickly dissipated and a new larger eye was evident on satellite and radar images. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) is now present at the center of Ian’s circulation. The new eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Hurricane Ian’s circulation. Storms near the core are generating strong upper level divergence that is pumping mass away to the north and east of the hurricane.

The quick eyewall replacement cycle caused the circulation around Ian to get bigger. Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 33.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.6. Hurricane Ian was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Hurricane Ian is now stronger than Hurricane Charley was when Charley made landfall in Southwest Florida in 2004, and Ian is much bigger than Charley was. Hurricane Ian is very similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael, when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.

Ian will move through an environment favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next few hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear is not likely to be strong enough during the next few hours to cause Hurricane Ian to weaken significantly before it makes landfall in Southwest Florida.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Ian toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Ian could make landfall on the coast of Southwest Florida between Ft. Myers and Sarasota on Wednesday afternoon. Ian could move slowly inland over Central Florida on Thursday. Hurricane Ian is likely to bring a prolonged period of strong gusty winds to Southwest Florida and to Central Florida. Ian will be capable of causing severe damage. A prolonged period of strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages. Hurricane Ian will move slowly inland and 10 to 20 inches of rain could fall in some locations. Fresh water flooding could occur in Central Florida. A storm surge of 12 to 16 feet (3.5 to 5 meters) could occur along the coast of Southwest Florida.

Hurricane Ian is bigger and stronger than Hurricane Charley was when Charley hit Southwest Florida in 2004. Ian is likely to cause much more wind damage than Charley caused. Hurricane Ian is also likely to cause a higher storm surge along the coast than Charley caused.

Hurricane Ian Moves Closer to Southwest Florida

Hurricane Ian moved closer to Southwest Florida on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 24.9°N and longitude 82.9°W which put it about 110 miles (175 km) southwest of Naples, Florida. Ian was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Anclote River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for all of the Florida Keys. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Chokoloskee, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropcial Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Bimini and Grand Bahama Island.

Hurricane Ian appeared to go through a quick eyewall replacement cycle on Tuesday evening. The original eye and eyewall quickly dissipated and a new larger eye was evident on satellite and radar images. The new eye had a diameter of 35 miles (55 km). The new eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ian’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the hurricane.

The quick eyewall replacement cycle temporarily interrupted the intensification of Hurricane Ian, but it also caused the circulation around Ian to get bigger. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.2. Hurricane Ian was capable of causing regional major damage.

Ian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear is not likely to be strong enough during the next 12 hours to prevent intensification of Hurricane Ian. Ian could strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday morning. The upper level winds are likely to get stronger on Wednesday afternoon which would cause the wind shear to increase. Hurricane Ian is likely to start to weaken slowly when the vertical wind shear increases.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Ian toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Ian could make landfall on the coast of Southwest Florida between Ft. Myers and Sarasota on Wednesday afternoon. Ian could move slowly inland over Central Florida on Thursday. Hurricane Ian is likely to bring a prolonged period of strong gusty winds to Southwest Florida and to Central Florida. Ian will be capable of causing major damage. A prolonged period of strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages. Hurricane Ian will move slowly inland and 10 to 20 inches of rain could fall in some locations. Extensive fresh water flooding could occur in Central Florida. A storm surge of 8 to 12 feet (2.4 to 3.5 meters) could occur along the coast of Southwest Florida.

The center of Hurricane Ian could make landfall near the location where Hurricane Charley made landfall in 2004. Ian will not be as strong as Charley was in 2004, but Ian will be a lot bigger than Charley. Hurricane Ian could be stronger than Hurricane Irma was in 2017 when Irma hit Southwest Florida, but Ian will not be as big as Irma was.

Typhoon Noru Makes Landfall in Central Vietnam

Typhoon Noru made landfall on the coast of central Vietnam near Da Nang on Tuesday evening. At 7:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Noru was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 108.1°E which put it about 5 miles (10 km) north of Da Nang, Vietnam. Noru was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

The core of Typhoon Noru made landfall near Da Nang, Vietnam on Tuesday evening. The distribution of thunderstorms around Noru became asymmetrical as it approached the coast of Vietnam. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in the western half of Noru’s circulation. Typhoon Noru was moving under the southern part of an upper level ridge over China. The ridge was producing easterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Noru’s circulation. Those winds were causing vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Typhoon Noru. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Noru was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.1. Typhoon Noru was capable of causing regional serious damage.

Typhoon Noru will move south of a high pressure system over China. The high pressure system will steer Noru toward the west during the next 36 hours. Typhoon Noru will weaken as it moves farther inland. On its anticipated track Typhoon Noru will move across central Vietnam during the next 12 hours. Noru will move over southern Laos and eastern Thailand. The strongest winds will occur in the area around Da Nang and Hue. Typhoon Noru will drop locally heavy rain over central Vietnam, southern Laos and eastern Thailand. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kulap strengthened gradually southeast of Japan. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Kulap was located at latitude 31.7°N and longitude 145.2°E which put it about 395 miles (640 km) southeast of Tokyo, Japan. Kulap was moving toward the northeast at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Major Hurricane Ian Hits Western Cuba

Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified to a major hurricane before it hit western Cuba on Tuesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 83.6°W which put it about 10 miles (15 km) north-northeast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba. Ian was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Anclote River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Suwannee River, Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Lower Florida Keys from Channel 5e Bridge to Key West including the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropcial Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Suwannee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified to a major hurricane before making landfall in western Cuba on Tuesday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Ian’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ian. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away form the hurricane in all directions. The removal of large quantities of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Hurricane Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 23.6 The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.1. Hurricane Ian was very similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey from 2017 and Hurricane Delta from 2020. Hurricane Ian was capable of causing regional major damage.

Hurricane Ian is not likely to spend enough time over western Cuba for Ian to weaken significantly. After the core of Hurricane Ian moves north of Cuba, Ian will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Ian is likely to intensify to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale by Wednesday. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation on Wednesday. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Hurricane Ian is likely to start to weaken slowly when the vertical wind shear increases.

Hurricane Ian will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ian toward the north during the next 18 hours. The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Ian more toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track Hurricane Ian will move away from western Cuba. Weather conditions should gradually improve over western Cuba as Ian moves farther away. Hurricane Ian will be south-southwest of Tampa, Florida on Wednesday morning. The winds steering Ian could weaken later on Wednesday. Hurricane Ian could make landfall just south of Tampa, Florida on Wednesday evening. Ian could move very slowly inland over Central Florida on Thursday.

Hurricane Ian is likely to bring a prolonged period of strong gusty winds to the area around Tampa and St. Petersburg and to Central Florida. Ian will be capable of causing major damage. A prolonged period of strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages. Hurricane Ian will move slowly inland and 10 to 20 inches of rain could fall in some locations. Extensive fresh water flooding could occur in Central Florida. A storm surge of 5 to 10 feet (1.5 to 3 meters) could occur in parts of Tampa Bay. Storm surges will also occur along the coast of Southwest Florida.

Hurricane Ian Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 2

Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale south of Cuba on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 83.2°W which put it about 155 miles (250 km) southeast of the western tip of Cuba. Ian was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Anclote River, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Suwannee River, Florida and from Englewood to Bonita Beach, Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Key West including the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo to Englewood, Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Jupiter Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee.

Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified to Category 2 over the northwestern Caribbean Sea south of Cuba on Monday afternoon. A circular eye with a diameter of 13 miles (20 km) formed at the center of Ian’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a nearly complete ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ian. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away form the hurricane in all directions. The removal of large quantities of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Ian got bigger on Monday afternoon as Ian got stronger. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Ian’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 16.5 The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.1. Hurricane Ian was capable of causing regional serious damage.

Hurricane Ian will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Ian is likely to intensify rapidly during the next 24 hours. Ian is likely to intensify to a major hurricane during the next 18 hours. Hurricane Ian could intensify to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale by Wednesday.

Hurricane Ian will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ian toward the north-northwest during the next 12 hours. Ian will move toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Ian will be near western Cuba on Tuesday morning. Hurricane Ian could be a major hurricane when it approaches western Cuba. Ian will be southwest of Tampa, Florida on Wednesday afternoon.

Hurricane Ian will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to western Cuba. Ian will be capable of causing regional major damage in western Cuba. Widespread outages of electricity are likely. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

The steering currents could weaken on Wednesday. If the steering currents weaken, the center of Hurricane Ian could stall just west or northwest of the area around Tampa and St. Petersburg. The strongest winds will be in the eastern side of Ian’s circulation. The area around Tampa and St. Petersburg could experience a prolonged period of strong winds. When the center of Ian is west of Tampa, the winds will blow from the south in the area around Tampa. Southerly winds will push water into Tampa Bay and a storm surge of 5 to 10 feet (1.5 to 3.0 meters) is possible. If Hurricane Ian stalls, some locations in west central Florida could receive 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm) of rain. Heavy rain is likely to cause fresh water flooding.

Typhoon Noru Moves Toward Vietnam

Typhoon Noru moved over the South China Sea toward Vietnam on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Noru was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 113.3E which put it about 380 miles (615 km) east of Da Nang, Vietnam. Noru was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Typhoon Noru strengthened on Monday afternoon as it moved toward central Vietnam. A small circular eye was present at the center of Noru’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Noru. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Noru increased in size on Monday. Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Noru’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Norw was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.7. Typhoon Nora was capable of causing regional serious damage.

Typhoon Noru will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Noru will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over eastern China. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Noru’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Typhoon Noru is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Noru could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Noru will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over China. The high pressure system will steer Noru toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Typhoon Noru will hit the coast of Vietnam near Da Nang in 24 hours. Typhoon Noru will be capable of causing major damage when it hits central Vietnam. Noru will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to central Vietnam. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kulap passed near Iwo To. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Kulap was located at latitude 27.4°N and longitude 141.8°E which put it about 140 miles (225 km) north-northeast of Iwo To. Kulap was moving toward the north at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Typhoon Noru Hits Luzon

Typhoon Noru hit Luzon on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Noru was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 121.9°E which put it about 105 miles (165 km) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines. Noru was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 926 mb.

Small, but powerful Typhoon Noru hit the coast of Luzon east-northeast of Manila on Sunday morning. Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Typhoon Noru. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Noru was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.7. Typhoon Noru was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Typhoon Noru will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Noru toward the west during the next 72 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Noru will move across central Luzon. The center of Noru could pass just north of Manila in a few hours. Typhoon Noru will bring strong, gusty winds to central Luzon. Severe damage could occur near the small core of Noru’s circulation. Widespread electrical outages are likely. Heavy rain will also fall over near the core of Typhoon Noru. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Since the circulation around Typhoon Noru is small, it is likely to weaken quickly while it passes over Luzon. There is a chance that Noru could still be a typhoon when it reaches the South China Sea. Noru will move into an environment favorable for intensification when it moves over the South China Sea. Noru will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over eastern China. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Noru’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.

Typhoon Noru could approach the coast of Vietnam in less than 72 hours. Noru could be a typhoon when it approaches the coast of Vietnam.

Typhoon Noru Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane East of Luzon

Typhoon Noru very rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Noru was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 124.1°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) east of Manila, Philippines. Noru was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 920 mb.

Typhoon Noru intensified very rapidly from a tropical storm to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane in 24 hours. A small, pinhole eye with a diameter of 7 miles (11 km) formed at the center of Noru’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Noru. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the typhoon. The removal of so much mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Noru was relatively small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Noru. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 33.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.7. Typhoon Noru was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Typhoon Noru will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Noru will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Noru could intensify to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane during the next 12 hours.

Typhoon Noru will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Noru toward the west during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Typhoon Noru will make landfall on the coast of Luzon east-northeast of Manila. Typhoon Noru be the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane when it makes landfall. Noru will produce severe wind damage. Heavy rain could cause flash floods. Typhoon Noru could produce a storm surge up to 15 feet (5 meters) along the east coast of Luzon. Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Hurricane Fiona Nears Canadian Maritimes

Hurricane Fiona neared the Canadian Maritimes on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Fiona was located at latitude 44.5°N and longitude 60.8°W which put it about 140 miles (220 km) east of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Fiona was moving toward the north at 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 933 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Hubbards to Brule, Nova Scotia. Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Prince Edward Islands and Isle de la Madeline. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Parson’s Pond to Francois, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for St. Andrews, New Brunswick to Hubbards, Nova Scotia. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Brule, Nova Scotia to Cap Madeline, Quebec. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Anticosti Island and for the portion of the coast from Sheldrake, Quebec to Parson’s Pond, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boat Harbor to Hare Bay, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Francois to St. Lawrence, Newfoundland. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Boat Harbor, Newfoundland to West Bay, Labrador.

Hurricane Fiona was making a rapid transition to a large, powerful extratropical cyclone on Friday night. The former eye and eyewall were no longer present at the center of Fiona. Most of the remaining thunderstorms were in bands northeast of the center of Fiona’s circulation. Cooler drier air was wrapping around the western and southern sides of the circulation. Upper level divergence above Hurricane Fiona was still pumping mass away and the surface pressure remained around 933 mb.

Hurricane Fiona grew much larger during the transition to an extratropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Fiona’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Fiona was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 48.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 66.2. Hurricane Fiona was capable of causing extensive serious damage.

An upper level trough over eastern Canada will steer Hurricane Fiona quickly toward the north during the weekend. The strongest winds will occur over eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland. Strong winds will also affect the rest of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island, parts of New Brunswick, Quebec and Labrador. The large circulation around Hurricane Fiona could cause widespread electrical outages. Locally heavy rain could cause floods in some places. Large waves and a storm surge could cause damage along the coast.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Gaston brought wind and rain to the Azores, Tropical Storm Hermine moved northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands and Tropical Storm Ian formed over the Caribbean Sea.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located at latitude 38.9°N and longitude 29.5°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) west-northwest of the Faial, Azores. Gaston was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Corvo, Flores, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 20.8°W which put it about 315 miles (505 km) northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Hermine was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 72.0°W which put it about 385 miles (625 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Ian was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Hurricane Watches were in effect for the Cayman Islands including Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Jamaica.