Tag Archives: Baja California

Tropical Storm Javier Near Southern Tip of Baja California

Tropical Storm Javier moved slowly toward the southern tip of Baja California on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located at latitude 22.5°N and longitude 109.7°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Javier was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The government of Mexico has discontinued all Hurricane Warnings and Watches.  A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Cabo San Lazaro.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto and from Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito.

Javier is a small tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Javier weakened during the past few hours.  Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter Research aircraft indicated that drier air in the middle levels had been pulled into the circulation of Javier.  The ingestion of the drier air weakened many of the thunderstorms and the wind speed decreased.  In addition an upper level ridge over northern Mexico appears to be causing easterly winds to blow across the top of Javier.  The vertical wind shear is tilting the circulation and the upper levels of Javier are tilted to the west of the surface center.

Tropical Storm Javier is in an environment that is not favorable for intensification.  Javier is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C, but the water west of Baja California is cooler.  The tropical storm is ingesting drier air and it is encountering vertical wind shear.  The proximity of Tropical Storm Javier to Baja California may also cause the terrain to disrupt the circulation.  Tropical Storm Javier may be able to maintain its intensity at times, but it is likely to weaken during the next several days.

Tropical Storm Javier is moving around the western end of a ridge over Mexico which has been steering it toward the northwest.  Since the thunderstorms in Javier are not as tall, it is being steered by winds lower in the atmosphere and those steering currents appear to be weaker.  As a result, Tropical Storm Javier moved much more slowly on Monday night.  When a tropical cyclone moves very close to Baja California, the terrain has an impact on the structure of the storm and its ultimate motion.  It is possible that the upper and lower portions of Tropical Storm Javier’s circulation could be sheared apart.  If that happens, the lower portion of the circulation could drift slowly along the west coast of Baja California.  The middle and upper portions of the circulation could be pulled north into the southwestern U.S. by an upper level trough off the west coast of the U.S.

The primary risks posed by Tropical Storm Javier are locally heavy rainfall and flash floods.  Steep terrain in parts of Baja California exacerbate the flood risk in those areas.  It is possible that some moisture associated with Tropical Storm Javier could be pulled into the southwestern U.S. later this week.  If that happens, the moisture will enhance rainfall over parts of Arizona and surrounding states.

Tropical Storm Javier Forms and Heads for Baja California

Tropical Storm Javier formed west of Mexico on Sunday and headed for Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT the government of Mexico issued Hurricane Warnings and Hurricane Watches for part of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 107.7°W which put it about 210 miles (340 km) southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Javier was moving to the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Todos Santos.  A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portions of the coast from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro and from Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to San Evaristo.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto.

Part of the middle and upper level structure associate with Tropical Storm Earl moved westward across Mexico and interacted with a surface trough of low pressure near the west coast of Mexico.  The middle and upper rotation was transported to the surface and a small low pressure system formed southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  The system was originally designated Tropical Depression 11-E early on Sunday.  A weather station at Manzanillo reported a wind from the southeast at 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h) at 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Javier.

Javier is a small tropical storm and the circulation is still organizing.  The tropical storm force winds are occurring within 100 miles (160 km) of the center of Tropical Storm Javier.  Most of the thunderstorms are in the western western half of the tropical storm and many are located close to the center of circulation.  The thunderstorms near the center of Javier are generating upper level divergence but it is primarily moving away to the west of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Javier is in an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge centered near Texas is producing easterly winds that are blowing over the top of Javier.  The easterly winds are causing some vertical wind shear and they are inhibiting upper level divergence to the east of Javier.  Tropical Storm Jaiver may also be drawing in some drier air from Mexico, since it is close to the coast.  The wind shear and drier air will inhibit the rate of intensification, but Tropical Storm Javier should be able to extract enough energy from the warm SSTs to intensify.

Tropical Storm Javier is moving around the western end of the upper level ridge centered near Texas.  Clockwise flow around that ridge is steering Javier toward the west-northwest.  As Javier nears the western end of the ridge, it will turn more toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Javier could approach the southern tip of Baja California by late Monday.

Tropical Storm Javier could do some wind damage, but the primary risks will be locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding.  Tropical Storm Javier could increase the flow of moist air over the southwestern U.S. later this week and it could enhance the normal August thunderstorm activity in that region.

Tropical Storm Frank and Tropical Depression 08E Form

The National Hurricane Center designated two new systems over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean as tropical cyclones on Thursday afternoon.  Tropical Storm Frank was the sixth tropical storm to form over the Eastern North Pacific during the month of July.  The record for tropical storms forming in July is seven.  If Tropical Depression 08E intensifies into a tropical storm then 2016 will tie the record for the most tropical storms to form over the Eastern Pacific during July.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 104.0°W which put it about 675 miles (1085 km) southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Frank was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression 08E was located at latitude 10.8°N and longitude 114.0°W which put it about 880 miles (1415 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Frank is the larger and better organized system.  A primary rainband wraps about three-quarters of way around the western side of the center of circulation.  Additional rainbands are spiraling around the outer portion of Frank.  Thunderstorms near the center of circulation are generating upper level outflow which is pumping out mass in all directions.

The circulation of Tropical Depression 08E is smaller and less well organized.  A primary rainband wraps about half way around the western side of the center of circulation.  Other partial rainbands are evident, but most of the thunderstorms are occurring in the western half of the circulation.  If looks like some of the upper level outflow from Tropical Storm Frank could be causing vertical wind shear over Tropical Depression 08E.

The environment around Tropical Storm Frank is favorable for intensification.  Frank is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  In addition, Tropical Storm Frank appears to be located beneath an upper level anticyclone, which is enhancing the upper level divergence.  Frank is likely to intensify during the next several days and it could intensify rapidly once an inner core forms around an eye.

The environment around Tropical Depression 08E is not as favorable.  It is over water the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Upper level outflow from the anticyclone over Tropical Storm Frank is generating easterly winds and moderate vertical wind shear over the depression.  If Tropical Depression 08E and Tropical Storm Frank move farther apart, then the shear could decrease and the depression could strengthen.

A subtropical ridge is steering both Tropical Storm Frank and Tropical Depression 08E toward the west-northwest.  However, a weaker area in the ridge is forecast to develop northwest of Frank and that could allow the tropical storm to move on a more northwesterly track.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Frank could move near the southern tip of Baja California on Sunday.

Sandra Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Strong vertical wind shear weakened Hurricane Sandra to a tropical storm on Friday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Sandra was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 108.8°W which put it about 155 miles (250 km) west of Las Islas Marias and about 205 miles (330 km) southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico.  Sandra was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the portion of the coast from Altata to San Blas, Mexico and for the Las Islas, Marias.

A large upper level trough centered over the southwestern U.S. generated strong southwesterly winds that blew the top half of Hurricane Sandra east of the low level circulation.  The strong wind vertical wind shear will continue, but it will take another day or two for the low level circulation to spin down.  Sandra could weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday and it could be classified as a remnant low by the end of the weekend.

Since the upper portion of the circulation is detached from the lower portion, the surface circulation is being steered by the winds in the lower atmosphere.  A ridge in the lower atmosphere is steering the surface circulation toward the north and that general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track the surface center of Tropical Storm Sandra will pass near the southern tip of Baja California on Saturday.  The surface center could make landfall on the west coast of Mexico on Sunday.

Hurricane Sandra Turns Toward Mexico

Hurricane Sandra moved around the western end of a subtropical ridge and turned toward Mexico on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Hurricane Sandra was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 109.7°W which put it about 340 miles (545 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California and about 490 miles (790 km) south-southwest of Culiacan, Mexico.  Sandra was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of Baja California from Todos Santos to Los Barriles.

Hurricane Sandra appeared to develop concentric eyewalls on Thursday.  A primary rainband wrapped around the tiny pinhole eye at the center of the hurricane.  Satellite imagery suggests that the tiny inner eye still exists inside the larger outer eye.  Sandra reached Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday morning, but the formation of concentric eyewalls weakened the hurricane back to Category 3 later in the day.  Sandra remains a well organized hurricane.  It has a well defined core surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Spiral bands of storms are in the northeastern quadrant of the circulation.

Hurricane Sandra will move into a less favorable environment on Friday.  It will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  However, a large upper level trough along the west coast of North America will generate strong southwesterly winds.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear, which will tilt the circulation toward the northeast.  The upper level winds will also inhibit upper level divergence from the western part of Sandra.  The strong wind shear will weaken Hurricane Sandra on Friday.  Some models are predicting that the shear could be strong enough to blow the middle and upper parts of the circulation northeast of the low level circulation.  If that happens, then Hurricane Sandy could weaken very quickly,

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Sandra toward the northeast on Friday.  Sandra will likely move faster toward the northeast by Friday night.  On its anticipated track Sandra could be near the southern tip of Baja California by Friday night and it could approach the west coast of Mexico on Saturday.  Sandra could still be a hurricane when it nears Baja California, but it is more likely to be a tropical storm.  It could be a tropical storm or depression by the time it reaches the west coast of Mexico.

Sandra Quickly Intensifies into a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Sandra intensified quickly into a major hurricane on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Sandra was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 109.9°W which put it about 685 miles (1100 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Sandra was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) which made Sandra a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and qualified it as a major hurricane.  There were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and the minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.  Sandra is the ninth major hurricane to form over the Eastern North Pacific during 2015, which is a new record for that basin.

Sandra is a small well organized hurricane.  It has a well defined eye surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms, but hurricane force winds only extend out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center.  Thunderstorms in the core of Sandra are producing upper level divergence which is pumping out mass and allowing the surface pressure to decrease.  Sandra is an environment that favors further intensification.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are light and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Sandra could become a Category 4 hurricane on Thursday.

Hurricane Sandra is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge to the east of it.  Sandra turned toward the northwest on Wednesday and it will gradually start moving more toward the north on Thursday.  A large deepening upper level trough off the west coast of North American will create southwesterly winds that will start to steer Sandra toward the northeast on Friday.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Sandra will approach the southern tip of Baja California on Friday night.

TD 22E Intensifies to Tropical Storm Sandra

A core circulation organized quickly on Tuesday inside Tropical Depression 22E and it intensified into Tropical Storm Sandra.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Sandra was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 107.2°W which put it about 780 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Sandra was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Eastern upper level winds which were blowing over the top of Tropical Depression 22E diminished on Tuesday and the depression intensified into Tropical Storm Sandra.  A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation  and an inner core developed near the interior end of the band.  As the band wrapped around the center of circulation a ring of thunderstorms began to take on the structure of an eyewall.  Those thunderstorms also started to generate some upper level divergence.  The circulation of Sandra is still organizing and other spiral bands are starting to form.

Tropical Storm Sandra is in an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Although there is still some vertical wind shear, it is much less than it was on Monday.  A combination of very warm water and little vertical wind shear could allow Sandra to intensify very quickly.  It is likely to become a hurricane with 12 to 18 hours and it could become a major hurricane within 24 to 36 hours.  In a couple of days Sandra will start to encounter strong upper level winds from the southwest.  The increased vertical wind shear at that time will cause it to weaken.

Tropical Storm Sandra is starting to move around the western end of a subtropical ridge that has been steering toward the north.  Sandra should gradually turn toward the north during the next 24 hours.  It is likely to move mainly toward the north until Thursday when southwesterly winds will turn it toward the northeast.  Sandra could be approaching the southern tip of Baja California by Friday night.

Tropical Depression 22E Forms Southwest of Mexico

A small center of circulation formed within a larger area of thunderstorms southwest of Mexico on Monday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression 22E.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Depression 22E (TD22E) was located at latitude 10.8°N and longitude 102.9°W which put it about 465 miles (750 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  TD22E was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

TD22E is still in the early stages of an organizational process.  The small center of circulation is located near the western end of a long band of thunderstorms.  There are not many thunderstorms south and west of the center and there is not much evidence of spiral bands.  A subtropical ridge northeast of TD22E is pushing the depression quickly toward the west and its rapid movement is retarding the organizational process.

TD22E is currently in an environment that is marginal for intensification.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C, which is very favorable for intensification.  However, the ridge northeast of TD22E is causing strong easterly winds to blow over the top of the depression.  The strong vertical wind shear and the rapid motion of the depression are negative factors for intensification.

As TD22E moves farther west, the vertical wind shear is expected to decrease and the depression is expected to move more slowly.  When that happens, TD22E will be able to more efficiently use the energy it is getting from the warm water and it will intensify.  A period of rapid intensification may occur once the core of the circulation is better organized.  TD22E could become a tropical storm on Tuesday and it could become a hurricane later this week.

The subtropical ridge is steering TD22E quickly toward the west.  In another 24 to 36 hours TD22E is likely to reach the western end of the ridge.  At that time it will slow down and turn toward the north.  TD22E will encounter southwesterly winds when it moves farther north.  Those winds will push TD22E toward the northeast later this week.  On its anticipated track TD22E could be near the southern tip of Baja California by the end of the week.

Tropical Depression 16E Could Bring Heavy Rain to Southwest U.S.

A center of circulation organized within a cluster of thunderstorms west of Baja California on Sunday and the system was designated Tropical Depression Sixteen-E.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E (TD16E) was located at latitude 25.0°N and longitude 113.7°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) west of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  TD16E was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Depression 16E has only a few hours before it will move over the central part of Baja California.  Although it is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C little, if any, intensification is expected.  When TD16E crosses Baja California, the terrain and increased vertical wind shear are likely to blow the upper portion of the circulation northward faster than the lower portion of the circulation.  The high clouds could reach parts of the southwestern U.S. within 24 hours.  Moving over mountains will disrupt the lower part of the circulation, but the rotation in the middle levels could persist for several days as it moves northward.

An upper level ridge centered over Texas and an upper level low west of Baja California are combining to steer TD16E northward and that general motion should continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track TD16E could reach the coast of Baja California near Punta Abreojos in about 12 hours.  It could then move across Baja and the Gulf of California and make a second landfall on the coast west of Hermosillo on Monday morning.  TD16E or its remnants could be approaching southern Arizona later on Monday.  Convection and a flow of moisture associated with TD16E could produce locally heavy rainfall when it is forced to rise of mountains.  It could cause flooding in parts of Baja California, northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S.

Tropical Storm Linda Forms South of Baja California

A spiral band continued to wrap more tightly around the center of circulation inside a large low pressure system west of Mexico on Sunday and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Linda.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Linda was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 109.0°W which put it about 610 miles (980 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Linda was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation in Tropical Storm Linda is well organized.  There is one main spiral rainband and multiple outer rainbands.  Outside of the core of the circulation there are fewer thunderstorms east of the center, which could mean that some drier air is being pulled into that part of the storm.  Thunderstorms in the core are generating upper level divergence.  Linda is over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above 29°C.  An upper level trough near the west coast of the U.S. and an upper level ridge over northern Mexico are combining to create an outflow channel to the northeast, which is enhancing the flow of mass away from the tropical storm.  There is little vertical wind shear over the top of Linda and the environment is favorable for further intensification.  A period of rapid intensification is possible and Linda is likely to become a hurricane.  Eventually, when it moves farther north, Linda will move into an area of cooler SSTs and more vertical wind shear, which will cause it to weaken.

Linda appears to be moving a little more toward the west-northwest this afternoon.  The upper level ridge over northern Mexico is expected to steer it in a generally northwesterly direction during the next few days.  On its anticipated track, Linda would move west of Baja California during the middle of next week.