Tropical Cyclone Garance Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Garance intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane north of La Reunion on Thursday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 18.5°S and longitude 55.4°E which put the center about 155 miles (205 km) north of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). 0 The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Garance intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane north of La Reunion on Thursday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Garance’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Garance’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Garance was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Garance was 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.4. Tropical Cyclone Garance was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge that is east of Madagascar.  The upper level winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Garance could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Garance is likely to get pulled into the eastern side of the larger circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde, which is over the southern Mozambique Channel.  The larger circulation around Honde will steer Garance toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Garance will reach La Reunion within the next 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Garance is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches La Reunion.  Garance will be capable of causing major damage on La Reunion.  Tropical Cyclone Garance will also drop heavy rain on La Reunion.  Heavy rain is likely to cause widespread flash flooding.  Garance could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of La Reunion.

Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Garance could also bring strong winds and heavy rain to Mauritius.  There were reports that the airport on Mauritius was closed as a precaution.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Honde intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the southern Mozambique Channel near Madagascar.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 25.0°S and longitude 41.8°E which put the center about 170 miles (280 km) southwest of Toliara, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Continues to Strengthen

Tropical Cyclone Alfred continued to strengthen over the Coral Sea on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 155.5°E which put the center about 660 miles (1050 km) north-northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred continued to strengthen over the Coral Sea on Wednesday.  A very small circular eye was visible at the center of Alfred’s circulation on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred increased when Alfred strengthened on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Alfred is 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 22.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 41.9.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Gustav when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls will form.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle will cause Alfred to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Vanuatu.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move parallel to the east coast of Australia.  Alfred could move closer to the coast of Queensland by the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Garance Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Garance intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon north-northwest of La Reunion on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 54.7°E which put the center about 200 miles (325 km) north-northwest of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the east-southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Garance rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Southwest Indian Ocean north-northwest of La Reunion on Wednesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Garance’s circulation.  A small circular eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance.  The developing eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Garance’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Garance was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Garance was 16.5  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.7.  Tropical Cyclone Garance was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern side of an upper level low that is southeast of La Reunion.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Garance’s circulation.  Those winds will some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Garance will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Garance is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Garance could get pulled into the eastern side of the larger circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde, which is over the Mozambique Channel.  The larger circulation around Honde will steer Garance toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Garance will approach La Reunion in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Garance is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches La Reunion.  Garance will be capable of causing major damage on La Reunion.  Tropical Cyclone Garance will also drop heavy rain on La Reunion.  Heavy rain is likely to cause widespread flash flooding.  Garance could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of La Reunion.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Honde was intensifying over the Mozambique Channel.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 24.1°S and longitude 40.2°E which put the center about 255 miles (410 km) west of Toliara, Madagascar. Honde was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seru Weakens Southeast of Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Seru weakened as it moved southeast of Vanuatu on Wednesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru was located at latitude 21.1°S and longitude 170.7°E which put the center about 260 miles (420 km) south-southeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Seru was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seru weakened as it moved southeast of Vanuatu on Wednesday.  An upper level trough south of New Caledonia produced northwesterly winds that blew to toward the top of Seru’s circulation.  Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Seru to become asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and southern parts of Seru’s circulation.  Bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Seru consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Seru increased as Seru moved farther south.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (235 km) from the center of Seru’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seru will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Seru will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  The upper level trough south of New Caledonia will continue to cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear over Tropical Cyclone Seru.  The combination of cooler water and moderate to strong vertical wind shear will cause Seru to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough south of New Caledonia will steer Tropical Cyclone Seru toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Seru will move farther away from Vanuatu.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca Weakens Rapidly

Tropical Cyclone Bianca weakened rapidly over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia on Wednesday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bianca was located at latitude 25.7°S and longitude 102.7°E which put the center about 730 miles (1175 km) west of Carnarvon, Australia.  Bianca was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca weakened rapidly over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia on Wednesday.  An upper level trough west of Australia produced strong northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Bianca.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear blew the upper part of Bianca’s circulation to the southeast of the circulation in the lower levels.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Bianca consisted of bands of showers and lower clouds that were revolving around the low level center of circulation.  Strong vertical wind shear was blowing the tops off of clouds that rose higher into the atmosphere.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bianca was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Bianca’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bianca will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 23°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level trough will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow across the top of Bianca’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  Cooler water and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Bianca to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Since the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bianca exists only in the lower levels of the atmosphere, Bianca will be steered by the weather features near the surface.  Bianca will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bianca toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bianca will move farther away from Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Meanders over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Alfred meandered over the Coral Sea on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 155.0°E which put the center about 850 miles (1370 km) north of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred continued to intensify gradually on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Alfred’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the developing eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Alfred’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Alfred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the southern side of Alfred’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.   Tropical Cyclone Alfred is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Vanuatu.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move parallel to the east coast of Australia.  Alfred could move closer to the coast of Queensland by the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Garance Forms Northwest of La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Garance formed over the Southwest Indian Ocean northwest of La Reunion on Tuesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 18.3°S and longitude 52.1°E which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) northwest of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the east-northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean northwest of La Reunion strengthened on Tuesday morning and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Garance.  The distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical in Tropical Cyclone Garance.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and northern parts of Garance’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Tropical Cyclone Garance consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Garance began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Garance was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northwestern side of an upper level low that is southeast of La Reunion.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Garance’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Garance will intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level low southeast of La Reunion will steer Tropical Cyclone Garance slowly toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Garance will approach La Reunion and Mauritius in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Garance could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches La Reunion and Mauritius.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, a tropical depression formed over the Mozambique Channel.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 22.9°S and longitude 37.1°E which put the center about 405 miles (655 km) west of Toliara, Madagascar.   The tropical depression was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seru Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Seru strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Pacific Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji on Tuesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 171.3°E which put the center about 190 miles (310 km) east of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Seru was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seru rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Pacific Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Seru’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru.  Storms near the center of Seru generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Seru was exhibiting more organization.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Seru’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Seru.

Tropical Cyclone Seru will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Seru will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from Vanuatu to Fiji.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Seru will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Seru will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Seru toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Seru will remain between Vanuatu and Fiji.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Rae was weakening rapidly as it passed southwest of Tonga.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Rae was located at latitude 24.1°S and longitude 178.0°W which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) southwest of Nuku Alofa, Tonga.  Rae was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca Strengthens to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Bianca strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bianca was located at latitude 22.3°S and longitude 102.0°E which put the center about 765 miles (1235 km) west of the Exmouth, Australia.  Bianca was moving toward the south-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia on Monday night.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Bianca’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Bianca’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Bianca generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bianca was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Bianca’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bianca.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Bianca was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.9.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bianca will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bianca’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Bianca will weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bianca toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bianca will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Spins over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Alfred continued to spin over the Coral Sea on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 154.5°E which put the center about 670 miles (1085 km) north of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it spun over the Coral Sea on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Alfred’s circulation.  A small circular eye was evident at the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred on visible satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Storms near the center of Alfred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the southern side of Alfred’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Vanuatu.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move parallel to the east coast of Australia.  Alfred could move closer to the coast of Queensland by the end of the week.