Tropical Storm Usagi Forms East of the Philippines

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Tropical Storm Usagi formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Usagi was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 134.2°E which put the center about 945 miles (1525 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Usagi was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Another tropical storm formed east of the Philippines on Monday.  Former Tropical Depression Twentyseven-W strengthened and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Usagi.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Usagi’s circulation.  However, the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Usagi was asymmetrical.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Usagi’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Usagi consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Usagi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Usagi was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Usagi’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Usagi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Usagi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.   It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Usagi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Usagi will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Usagi could strengthen to a typhoon on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Usagi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Usagi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Usagi will move toward the Philippines.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, former Typhoon Toraji weakened as it moved away from the Philippines, Tropical Storm Yinxing approached the coast of Vietnam, Tropical Storm Watches were issued in the Marianas for Tropical Storm Man-yi.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Toraji was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 118.7°E which put the center about 420 miles (675 km) southeast of Hong Kong.  Toraji was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Yinxing was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 109.6°E which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam.  Yinxing was moving toward the south-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Man-yi was located at latitude 14.0°N and longitude 150.5°E which put the center about 430 miles (695 km) east of Guam.  Man-yi was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

Typhoon Toraji Brings Wind and Rain to Luzon

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Typhoon Toraji brought wind and rain to Luzon on Sunday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Typhoon Toraji was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 121.8°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) east of Echague, Philippines.  Toraji was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

The center of Typhoon Toraji made landfall on the coast of Luzon east of Echague on Sunday night.  Toraji was a relatively small typhoon at the time of landfall.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Toraji’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles from the center of Typhoon Toraji.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Toraji was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.7. and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 21.6. Typhoon Toraji was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Isaias when Isaias hit North Carolina in 2020.

Typhoon Toraji will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Toraji toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the Typhoon Toraji will move across northern Luzon during the next 12 hours.

Typhoon Toraji will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Luzon.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods and mudslides.  Toraji will also cause a storm surge of up to 9 feet (2.7 meters) along the coast of northeastern Luzon.  Northern Luzon is trying to recover from the damage caused by two recent typhoons.  Typhoon Toraji will seriously disrupt those recovery activities.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Yinxing continued to weaken over the South China Sea, Tropical Storm Man-yi continued to move toward the Marianas, and a new tropical depression formed west of Guam.

At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Yinxing was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 111.3°E which put the center about 225 miles (365 km) east-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam.  Yinxing was moving toward the south-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Man-yi was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 152.2°E which put the center about 460 miles (740 km) east of Saipan.  Man-yi was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Twentyseven-W was located at latitude 12.7°N and longitude 138.5°E which put the center about 370 miles (595 km) west of Guam.  The tropical depression was moving toward the northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (60 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Toraji Rapidly Intensifies to a Typhoon East of Luzon

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Former Tropical Storm Toraji rapidly intensified to a typhoon east of Luzon on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Typhoon Toraji was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 122.7°E which put the center about 85 miles (135 km) east-southeast of Echague, Philippines. Toraji was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Toraji rapidly intensified to a typhoon over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Luzon on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Toraji’s circulation.  An eye formed at the center of Typhoon Toraji.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Toraji’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Toraji generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Toraji was small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Toraji’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Typhoon Toraji.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Toraji was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.7. and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 21.6.  Typhoon Toraji was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Isaias when Isaias hit North Carolina in 2020.

Typhoon Toraji will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Toraji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Toraji will continue to intensify during the next few hours.

Typhoon Toraji will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Toraji toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center Typhoon Toraji will reach Luzon in a few hours.

Typhoon Toraji will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Luzon.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods and mudslides.  Toraji will also cause a storm surge of up to 9 feet (2.7 meters) along the coast of northeastern Luzon.  Northern Luzon is trying to recover from the damage caused by two recent typhoons.  Typhoon Toraji will seriously disrupt those recovery activities.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, former Typhoon Yinxing weakened rapidly over the South China Sea and Tropical Storm Man-yi moved closer to the Marianas.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Yinxing was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 111.7°E which put the center about 290 miles (465 km) east-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam.  Yinxing was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Man-yi was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 153.4°E which put the center about 540 miles (870 km) east of Saipan.  Man-yi was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Toraji Rapidly Develops East of the Philippines

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Tropical Storm Toraji rapidly developed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Toraji was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 127.7°E which put the center about 495 miles (795 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Toraji was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines strengthened rapidly on Saturday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Toraji.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Toraji organized quickly on Saturday.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Toraji’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Toraji generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Toraji was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Toraji’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Toraji will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Toraji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Toraji will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Toraji could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Storm Toraji is likely to strengthen to a typhoon on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Toraji will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Toraji toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Toraji will approach Luzon in a little over 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Toraji is likely to be a typhoon when it reaches northern Luzon.  Toraji will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Luzon.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods and mudslides.  Northern Luzon is trying to recover from two recent typhoons.  Typhoon Toraji is likely to seriously disrupt those recovery activities.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Yinxing passed south of Hong Kong and Tropical Storm Man-yi formed east of the Marianas.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Typhoon Yinxing was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 113.1°E which put the center about 220 miles (360 km) south-southwest of Hong Kong.  Yinxing was moving toward the west-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Man-yi was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 156.1°E which put the center about 720 miles (1160 km) east of Saipan.  Man-yi was moving toward the northwest at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Rafael Weakens to a Tropical Storm

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Former Hurricane Rafael weakened to a tropical storm over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located at latitude 25.0°N and longitude 90.8°W which put the center about 265 miles (425 km) north-northwest of Progreso, Mexico.  Rafael was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Former Hurricane Rafael continued to weaken over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday night. An upper level low over the central U.S. was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Rafael’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. Drier air was being pulled into the western side of Tropical Storm Rafael.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air caused Rafael to continue to weaken.

The moderate vertical wind shear was also affecting the structure of Tropical Storm Rafael.  New thunderstorms were still developing near the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Rafael.  Bands in the western side of Rafael’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.   Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Rafael was small. Wind to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move through an environment mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However the upper level low over the central U.S. will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  More drier air will also get pulled into the western side of Rafael’s circulation.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air is likely to cause Tropical Storm Rafael to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours.  Rafael could maintain its intensity today, if the wind shear does not get any stronger.

The winds steering Tropical Storm Rafael will be weak during the next 24 hours. As a result, on its anticipated track, Rafael will meander over the central Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.

Hurricane Rafael Weakens Over Gulf of Mexico

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Hurricane Rafael weakened over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 24.6°N and longitude 89.7°W which put the center about 230 miles (365 km) north of Progreso, Mexico.  Rafael was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Hurricane Rafael started to weaken over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon.  An upper level low over the central U.S. was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Rafael’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  Drier air was being pulled into the western side of Hurricane Rafael.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air caused Hurricane Rafael to start to weaken.

The moderate vertical wind shear was also affecting the structure of Hurricane Rafael.  An eye was no longer visible at the center of Rafael’s circulation.  The western part of the former eyewall weakened and that part of the eyewall consisted of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in the eastern part of the former eyewall.  Thunderstorms were also still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Hurricane Rafael.  Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.0.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Rafael was bigger than Idalia was.

Rafael will move into an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However the upper level low over the central U.S. will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  More drier air will also get pulled into the western side of Rafael’s circulation.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air will cause Hurricane Rafael to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The winds steering Hurricane Rafael will weaken during the next 24 hours.  As a result, on its anticipated track, Hurricane Rafael will meander over the central Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.

Typhoon Yinxing Spins Over the South China Sea

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Typhoon Yinxing was spinning over the South China Sea on Friday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Typhoon Yinxing was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 115.4°E which put the center about 275 miles (445 km) south-southeast of Hong Kong.  Yinxing was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Typhoon Yinxing was the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday afternoon as it spun over the South China Sea.  A circular eye with a diameter of 22 miles (35 km) was that the center of Typhoon Yinxing.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Yinxing’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Yinxing generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Yinxing was a little smaller on Friday afternoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Yinxing’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Typhoon Yinxing.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Yinxing was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.7.  Typhoon Yinxing was similar in intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020.  Yinxing is bigger than Delta was.

Typhoon Yinxing will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Yinxing will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, a high pressure system over China will circulate drier air toward the northwestern part of Typhoon Yinxing.  The drier air will begin to be pulled into the northwestern part of Yinxing’s circulation.  The drier air will cause the thunderstorms in the part of Typhoon Yinxing.  The drier air is likely to cause Typhoon Yinxing to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Yinxing will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Yinxing toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Yinxing will move pass south of Hong Kong during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Rafael Moves Over Southeastern Gulf of Mexico

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Hurricane Rafael moved over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 24.7°N and longitude 86.2°W which put the center about 325 miles (520 km) northeast of Progreso, Mexico.  Rafael was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Hurricane Rafael weakened a little on Wednesday night as it moved across western Cuba.  Rafael strengthened again on Thursday when it moved over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rafael’s circulation and an eye formed again at the center of Hurricane Rafael.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Rafael’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane. The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Wind to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.8.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Rafael will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern periphery of a large upper level trough that extends from the North Central U.S. to the Southwest U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Rafael’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Rafael could intensify during the next 24 hours.  The wind shear is likely to increase during the weekend and Rafael is likely to weaken when the shear increases.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Rafael will move toward the central Gulf of Mexico.

Powerful Typhoon Yinxing Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Luzon

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Power Typhoon Yinxing was bringing wind and rain to northern Luzon on Thursday.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Typhoon Yinxing was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 122.0°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) northeast of Aparri, Philippines.  Yinxing was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

The eye of powerful Typhoon Yinxing was just north of the coast of northern Luzon on Thursday morning.  The eye had a diameter of  23 miles (37 km).  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Yinxing.  Storms near the core of Yinxing generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of large amounts of mass in the upper level slightly exceed the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere, which caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Yinxing was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Yinxing’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) from the center of Typhoon Yinxing.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Yinxing was 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.6.  Typhoon Yinxing was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Typhoon Yinxing will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Yinxing will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Even though Typhoon Yinxing will move through an environment favorable for intensification, much of the southern half of Yingxing’s circulation, including the southern side of the eyewall, will move across northern Luzon.  Since almost half of Yinxing’s circulation will move over land Typhoon Yinxing will weaken during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Yinxing will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean . The high pressure system will steer Yinxing toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Yinxing will move near the north coast of Luzon during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Yinxing will continue to bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rain to northern Luzon during the next 24 hours.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods and mudslides.  Yinxing will cause widespread power outages.  Typhoon Yinxing could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of northern Luzon.  Yinxing will be capable of causing regional severe damage.

Hurricane Rafael Hits Western Cuba

Hurricane Rafael hit western Cuba late on Wednesday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 82.7°W which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Havana, Cuba.   Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

A  Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas. 

Hurricane Rafael intensified to a major hurricane on Wednesday before it hit western Cuba.  Concentric eyewalls formed in the core of Rafael’s circulation.  An eyewall replacement cycle started, but the inner eyewall was still intact when Hurricane Rafael hit western Cuba.  Since the inner eyewall was still intact, Rafael did not weaken before it hit Cuba.

Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls.  Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Wind to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Rafael.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.4.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020.  Rafael was not as big as Delta was.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Rafael will move across western Cuba during the next few few hours.  Rafael will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.

Hurricane Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to western Cuba.  Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Rafael could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the south coast of western Cuba.  Hurricane Rafael will be capable of causing localized major damage.

Hurricane Rafael will weaken as it moves across western Cuba.  Rafael will move into an environment somewhat favorable for intensification after it moves north of Cuba.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern periphery of a large upper level trough that extends from the North Central U.S. to the Southwest U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Rafael’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Rafael will could intensify on Thursday after it moves north of Cuba.