Tropical Cyclone Alfred Moves Toward Australia

Tropical Cyclone Alfred started to move toward the east coast of Australia on Tuesday.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for a portion of the coast.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 27.8°S and longitude 158.2°E which put the center about 335 miles (540 km) east of Brisbane, Australia.   Alfred was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Double Island Point , Queensland to Grafton, New South Wales.  The Warning includes Brisbane.

A Watch remains in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Cape to Double Island Point, Queensland.

The structure of Tropical Cyclone Alfred started to change when Alfred began to move west toward the east coast of Australia.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and southern parts of Alfred’s circulation.  Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Cyclone Alfred consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Alfred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was very large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level low over eastern Australia will continue to produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could be close to being in equilibrium with its surrounding environment.  The intensity of Tropical Cyclone Alfred could remain relatively constant during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is southeast of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Tropical Cyclone Alfred toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will approach the east coast of Australia near Brisbane in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Alfred will also be capable of causing a storm surge of up to six feet (1.8 meters) along portions of the coast.

A Flood Watch is in effect for southeast Queensland.  A Flood Watch is also in effect for the Northern Rivers and Mid-North Coast of New South Wales.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Lingers East of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Alfred lingered over the Coral Sea east of Australia on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 27.3°S and longitude 158.8°E which put the center about 370 miles (595 km) east of Brisbane, Australia.   Alfred was moving toward the southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Cape, Queensland to Grafton, New South Wales.  The Watch includes Brisbane.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred did not look much like a tropical cyclone on satellite images on Monday night.  An upper level trough over the Coral Sea was producing strong northerly winds that were blowing across the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong wind shear was making the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Alfred very asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern part of Alfred’s circulation.  Bands in the northern part of Tropical Cyclone Alfred consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was very large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 260 miles (420 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level trough over the Coral Sea will continue to produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could be close to being in equilibrium with its surrounding environment.  The intensity of Tropical Cyclone Alfred could remain relatively constant during the next 24 hours.

A high pressure system southeast of Australia will block Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  The high pressure system will keep Alfred from moving farther to the southeast.  The high pressure system will steer Tropical Cyclone Alfred toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred could approach the east coast of Australia near Brisbane in 48 hours.

 

 

Tropical Cyclone Honde Moves Away from Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Honde moved away from southern Madagascar on Monday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 27.5°S and longitude 46.9°E which put the center about 220 miles (355 km) south-southeast of Ambovombe, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Honde appeared to be beginning the start of a transition to an extratropical cyclone as it moved away from southern Madagascar on Monday.  Changes to the appearance of Honde’s circulation were evident on satellite images.  Some drier air was being pulled around the northern side of the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde and a dry slot was visible in satellite images.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of Honde’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Honde still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was increasing.

The area of tropical storm force winds in Tropical Cyclone Honde decreased as Honde weakened.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Honde’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Honde will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near southern Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Honde’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  The wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Honde to continue its transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough near southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Honde toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde will continue to move farther away from southern Madagascar.

Several bands in the northern periphery of Tropical Cyclone Honde were still over southern Madagascar.  Those rainbands will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Madagascar during the next 24 hours.  Additional heavy rain will likely cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Prompts Watch for East Coast of Australia

A potential risk posed by Tropical Cyclone Alfred prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Watch for a portion of the east coast of Australia on Sunday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 26.6°S and longitude 157.4°E which put the center about 290 miles (465 km) east-northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Cape, Queensland to Grafton, New South Wales.  The Watch includes Brisbane.

An upper level trough over eastern Australia continued to produce northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear was making the distribution of thunderstorms in Alfred asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Bands in the northern part of Alfred’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was still large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level trough over eastern Australia will continue to produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could be close to being in equilibrium with its surrounding environment.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could intensify a little during the next 24 hours in spite of the vertical wind shear.

The upper level trough over eastern Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Alfred toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  Alfred is forecast to start to move toward the west on Tuesday.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred could approach the east coast of Australia later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Honde Lingers Near Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Honde lingered near southern Madagascar on Sunday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 27.1°S and longitude 46.1°E which put the center about 195 miles (315 km) south of Ambovombe, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the southeast at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Honde was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it lingered near southern Madagascar on Sunday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Honde’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde.  Storms near the center of Honde generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was almost balanced by the inflow of mass in the lower levels of Tropical Cyclone Honde.  As a result, the surface pressure was not changing much.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde was smaller on Sunday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southern half of Honde’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Honde will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near southern Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Honde’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Honde will likely maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough near southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Honde toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde will gradually move farther away from southern Madagascar.

Bands in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Honde will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Madagascar during the next 24 hours.  Additional heavy rain will likely cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Garance was making a transformation to and extratropical cyclone far to the south of La Reunion.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 33.8°S and longitude 59.9°E which put the center about 925 miles (1495 km) south-southeast of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the southeast at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Alfred weakened over the Coral Sea east of Australia on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 23.6°S and longitude 155.0°E which put the center about 330 miles (530 km) north-northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

An upper level trough over eastern Australia produced northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Alfred on Saturday.  Those winds blew the tops off of the thunderstorms in the northern half of Alfred’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Bands in the northern part of Alfred’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Alfred weakened substantially on Saturday, the circulation around Alfred was still large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level trough over eastern Australia will continue to produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could be close to being in equilibrium with its surrounding environment.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is east of the Coral Sea.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred toward the south during the next 24 hours.  Alfred could start to move toward the west on Monday.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred could move toward the coast of southern Queensland early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Honde Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Honde continued to bring wind and rain to southern Madagascar on Saturday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 26.9°S and longitude 45.3°E which put the center about 120 miles (195 km) south of Tsiombe, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Bands in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Honde continued to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Madagascar on Saturday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 24 miles (38 km) was at the center of Honde’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde.  Storms near the center of Honde generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was almost balanced by the inflow of mass in the lower levels of Tropical Cyclone Honde.  As a result, the surface pressure was not changing much.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde was large.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southern half of Honde’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (350 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Honde was 10.4.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 22.9.  Tropical Cyclone Honde was similar in intensity to Hurricane Dolly when Dolly hit south Texas in 2008.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Honde will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near southern Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Honde’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Honde will likely maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough near southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Honde slowly toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde will move a little farther away from southern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Madagascar during the next 24 hours.  Prolonged heavy rain will likely cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Garance was weakening as it moved farther to the south of La Reunion.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 28.6°S and longitude 55.0°E which put the center about 505 miles (815 km) south of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the south at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Moves South

Tropical Cyclone Alfred moved south over the Coral Sea on Friday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 21.8°S and longitude 155.7°E which put the center about 450 miles (725 km) north-northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred was showing signs of weakening as it moved south over the Coral Sea on Friday.  There was still an eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) at the center of Alfred’s circulation, but the eye was not as distinct on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Alfred appeared to be becoming a little more asymmetrical.  There were more thunderstorms in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Alfred’s circulation.  There appeared to be fewer thunderstorms in bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

Storms near the center of Alfred continued to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  However, the inflow of mass in the lower levels of Alfred’s circulation was equal to the upper level divergence.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Friday.

The size of circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred decreased a little on Friday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (325 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Alfred is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 19.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 41.8.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is similar in intensity to Hurricane Jeanne when Jeanne hit Florida in 2004.  Alfred is not as large as Jeanne was.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The increase in vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Alfred to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is east of the Coral Sea.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will a little closer to the east coast of Australia.  Alfred could move closer to the coast of Queensland early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Garance Batters La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Garance battered La Reunion on Friday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 21.8°S and longitude 55.4°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) south-southeast of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the south at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Garance moved directly over La Reunion on Friday.  Roland Garros airport (FMEE) measured a sustained wind speed of 61 knots (70 m.p.h. or 113 km/h) and a wind gust of 83 knots (95 m.p.h. or 154 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Garance dropped very heavy rain on La Reunion.  There were reports of flooding.  Roland Garros airport (FMEE) measured 6.48 inches (164.6 mm) of rain.  A weather station at Piton-Maido reported 18.49 inches (469.6 mm) of rain.  A weather station at Cilaos reported 17.06 inches (433.4 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Garance was a small tropical cyclone when it hit La Reunion.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Garance was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8,8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.6.  Tropical Cyclone Garance was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will be pulled around the eastern side of the larger circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde.  Garance will move toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Garance will move south of La Reunion later today.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will weaken significantly during its passage over La Reunion.  Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, it will move under the upper level outflow from Tropical Cyclone Honde.  The upper level outflow from Honde’s circulation will cause the vertical wind shear to increase over Garance.  The increase in vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Garance to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Honde brought strong winds and heavy rain  to southern Madagascar.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 26.1°S and longitude 44.0°E which put the center about 190 miles (305 km) south of Toliara, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the east-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Churns over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Alfred continued to churn over the Coral Sea on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 19.4°S and longitude 155.5°E which put the center about 605 miles (980 km) north-northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred strengthened a little more as it churned over the Coral Sea on Thursday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was present at the center of Alfred’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The divergence of mass in the upper atmosphere was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower atmosphere.  The near balance of mass caused the surface pressure to remain nearly steady.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was large.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Alfred is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 29.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 51.4.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Jeanne when Jeanne hit Florida in 2004.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, the circulation around Alfred seems to be nearly in balance with the surrounding environment.  So, the intensity of Tropical Cyclone Alfred may not change much during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is east of the Coral Sea.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move parallel to the east coast of Australia.  Alfred could move closer to the coast of Queensland during the weekend.