Tag Archives: HWISI

Tropical Cyclone Maha Strengthens into Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Maha strengthened into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Sunday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maha was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 64.8°E which put it about 525 miles (845 km) west of Mumbai, India.  Maha was moving toward the northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maha continued to intensify on Sunday and it became the equivalent of a major hurricane.  There was a small eye at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Maha.  The strongest rainbands were in the eastern half of the tropical cyclone.  Bands in the western half of Maha consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the core of the circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Maha was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (35 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Maha was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.2.  Maha was capable of causing localized major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Maha will move through an environment favorable for intensification for another 12 to 18 hours.  Maha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Maha may be pulling drier air into the western half of the circulation, which could be the reason for the lack of thunderstorms in that half of the circulation.  The drier air could prevent significant additional intensification if it gets pulled into the core of the circulation.  An upper level trough will approach Maha from the west in about 18 hours.  The trough will produce stronger westerly winds which will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Maha will begin to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Maha will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over India and the eastern Arabian Sea during the next 24 hours.  The ridge will steer Maha slowly toward the northwest.  When the upper level trough approaches Tropical Cyclone Maha, the westerly winds will steer the tropical cyclone back toward the east.  On its anticipated track Maha could approach the coast of India north of Mumbai in about 72 hours.

Intense Tropical Cyclone Kyarr Moves Toward Oman

Intense Tropical Cyclone Kyarr moved toward Oman on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kyarr was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 65.2°E which put it about 460 miles (745 km) east-southeast of Masirah Island, Oman.  Kyarr was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 932 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Kyarr remained very symmetrical on Sunday.  Microwave satellite images seemed to indicate that there were two symmetric eye eyewalls surrounding the center of Kyarr.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the larger core of Tropical Cyclone Kyarr.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The formation of a second, outer eyewall caused the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Kyarr to increase in size.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Kyarr was 31.6.  The Hurricane  Size Index (HSI) was 19.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 50.7.

The formation of concentric eyewalls indicated that an eyewall replacement cycle was in progress.  Tropical Cyclone Kyarr will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Even though Kyarr will move through an environment favorable for strong tropical cyclones, it will likely weaken while the inner eyewall dissipates.

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr will move south of a ridge of high pressure over South Asia.  The ridge will steer Kyarr in a westward direction during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kyarr could approach the coast of Oman in three or four days.

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane over Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Arabian Sea on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kyarr was located at latitude 16.9°N and longitude 68.6°E which put it about 705 miles (1135 km) east-southeast of Masirah Island, Oman.  Kyarr was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr intensified rapidly into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the past 36 hours.  A small eye formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Kyarr.  Storms near the core of Kyarr were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Kyarr was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15.1 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.2.

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Kyarr will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Kyarr could strengthen during the next 24 hours.  An inner rainband could wrap around the eye and eyewall at some point.  That would start an eyewall replacement cycle which would cause Kyarr to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr will move south of a ridge of high pressure over South Asia.  The ridge will steer Kyarr toward the west during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kyarr will move toward Oman.

Typhoon Bualoi Strengthens to Equivalent of Major Hurricane over Marianas

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Marianas on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 145.5°E which put it about 660 miles (1060 km) south-southeast of Iwo To.  Bualoi was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Typhoon Bualoi continued to intensify quickly on Monday.  There was a small eye at the center of Bualoi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Bualoi.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon in all directions.

The circulation around Typhoon Bualoi was small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bualoi was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.1.  Typhoon Bualoi was capable of causing localized major damage.  The core of Bualoi where the strongest winds were occurring passed north of Saipan.

Typhoon Bualoi will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong typhoon for another 24 to 36 hours.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Bualoi could strengthen during the next 24 hours.  If an inner rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause the typhoon to start to weaken.

Typhoon Bualoi will move around the western end of high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  The typhoon will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Bualoi will move away from the Northern Marianas.  Conditions should improve when Bualoi gets farther away.  Typhoon Bualoi could be near Iwo To in about 60 hours.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Neoguri was moving south of Honshu.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 32.4°N and longitude 137.6°E which put it about 285 miles (460 km) southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the east-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.  The center of Tropical Storm Neoguri is likely to pass south of Tokyo during in about 12 hours.

Typhoon Bualoi Strengthens as it Approaches the Marianas

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened as it approached the Marianas on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 147.8°E which put it about 175 miles (285 km) east-southeast of Saipan.  Bualoi was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Typhoon Warnings were in effect for Tinian and Saipan.  A Typhoon Watch was in effect for Rota.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan.

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened quickly on Sunday.  A small circular eye developed at the center of Bualoi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the typhoon.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from Bualoi in all directions.

The circulation around Typhoon Bualoi was relatively small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (215 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bualoi was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.3.  Bualoi was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Typhoon Bualoi will move through an environment favorable for intensification for another 36 to 48 hours.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bualoi will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Typhoon Bualoi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  The typhoon will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Bualoi could pass near Saipan in about 12 hours.  If the center passes near or over Saipan, then there will be winds of typhoon force.  However, since the circulation around Bualoi is fairly small, if the typhoon passes north of Saipan, it will receive much weaker winds.  Typhoon Bualoi could be near Iwo To in less than three days.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Neoguri was moving toward Honshu.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 29.5°N and longitude 133.6°E which put it about 600 miles (965 km) southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the north-northeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.  Tropical Storm Neoguri could pass close to the coast of Honshu near Tokyo in about 24 hours.

Typhoon Hagibis Aims at Tokyo

Typhoon Hagibis was aimed at Tokyo on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located at latitude 31.5°N and longitude 137.4°E which put it about 345 miles (555 km) south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Hagibis was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Typhoon Hagibis was weakening slowly as it shifted onto a course toward Tokyo.  An eye was no longer visible on satellites images.  The ring of strong thunderstorms around the center of Hagibis was weaker in the southern half of the ring.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of Typhoon Hagibis.  Bands in the southern half of Hagibis consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  An upper level trough over eastern Asia was producing southwesterly winds which were causing moderate vertical wind shear.   In addition, Typhoon Hagibis appeared to be pulling drier air into the southern half of the circulation.  The combination of wind shear and drier seemed to have weakened the southern half of the typhoon.

Even though it had weakened, Typhoon Hagibis remained a dangerous typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 190 miles (305 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hagibis was 22.1  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.6.  Typhoon Hagibis was capable of causing major damage.

The upper level trough over eastern Asia will steer Typhoon Hagibis toward the northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Hagibis could approach the coast of Honshu southeast of Tokyo in 12 to 18 hours.  Hagibis will continue to weaken as it moves toward Tokyo, but it will still be a typhoon when it reaches the region around Tokyo  Typhoon Hagibis will bring damaging winds to the Tokyo metropolitan area.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms on the northern side of Hagibis are already dropping rain over portions of Honshu southeast of Tokyo.  The rain will continue for another 12 to 24 hours in many locations.  Locally heavy rain will cause flash floods in some parts of Honshu.

Large Typhoon Hagibis Threatens Honshu

Large Typhoon Hagibis threatened Honshu on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located at latitude 27.9°N and longitude 137.8°E which put it about 555 miles (895 km) south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Hagibis was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 933 mb.

Powerful Typhoon Hagibis weakened slowly on Thursday.  There was still a circular eye at the center of Hagibis and the eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  The strongest winds were in the ring of thunderstorms, but the wind speed decreased slowly during Thursday.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Hagibis.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Although the circulation around Typhoon Hagibis weakened slowly on Thursday, it remained a large typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (545 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hagibis was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 28.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 56.9,  Hagibis was capable of causing widespread significant damage.

Typhoon Hagibis will continue to weaken slowly on Friday.  Hagibis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level trough over eastern Asia will move toward Typhoon Hagibis.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hagibis.  The wind shear caused by those winds will create increasing vertical wind shear.  Increased wind shear will cause Typhoon Hagibis to weaken a little more quickly in 12 to 24 hours.

Typhoon Hagibis will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean on Friday.  The high will steer Hagibis toward the north during the next 12 to 24 hours.  The upper level trough over eastern Asia will steer Typhoon Hagibis toward the northeast in about 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Hagibis could reach the coast of Honshu near Tokyo in less than 36 hours.  Hagibis will still be a typhoon when it reaches Tokyo.  It will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the part of Honshu around Tokyo.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Powerful Typhoon Hagibis Continues Toward Honshu

Powerful Typhoon Hagibis continue to move toward Honshu on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located at latitude 23.7°N and longitude 139.5°E which put it about 140 miles (225 km) west-southwest of Iwo To.  Hagibis was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 918 mb.

Typhoon Hagibis continued to have a powerful, large circulation on Wednesday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Hagibis.  The rainbands in the northwestern quadrant of Hagibis were a little weaker than the bands in other parts of the typhoon.  Some drier air may have been being pulled into the the northwestern quadrant of the circulation.  Storms around the core of the typhoon continue to generate strong upper level divergence.

The strength of the winds around Typhoon Hagibis exhibited more asymmetry on Wednesday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation in the northeastern part of Hagibis.  Winds to typhoon force were occurring within 100 miles (160 km) of the center in the other parts of Typhoon Hagibis.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 370 miles (565 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hagibis was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 39.9 and he Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 74.9.  Typhoon Hagibis was capable of causing extensive catastrophic damage.

Typhoon Habigis will continue to move through an environment capable of supporting strong  typhoons, but Hagibis is likely to start to weaken on Thursday.  Typhoon Hagibis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C, but that is slightly cooler than the water Hagibis has been over.  Typhoon Hagibis will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  There will be little vertical wind shear on Thursday, and so Hagibis will likely weaken slowly.  Typhoon Hagibis will move closer to upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes on Friday.  When Hagibis gets closer to the stronger upper level winds, vertical wind shear will increase and the typhoon will weaken more quickly.  The large circulation around Typhoon Hagibis will slow the rate of weakening even when the wind shear increases.

Typhoon Hagibis will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next 24 hours.  The high will steer Hagibis toward the north on Thursday.  Typhoon Hagibis will move toward the northeast on Friday when it reaches the upper level westerly winds.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Hagibis will move west of Iwo To during the next 24 hours.  Hagibis will bring winds to tropical storm force to Iwo To and there is a chance that the winds could reach typhoon force at times.  Rainbands on the eastern side of the typhoon will drop heavy rain on Iwo To.  Typhoon Hagibis could approach the coast of Honshu near Tokyo in a little over 48 hours.  Hagibis will still be a typhoon when it approaches Tokyo.  It will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Honshu.  Typhoon Hagibis could also produce winds to tropical storm force on Shikoku.

Large Powerful Typhoon Hagibis Turns Toward Japan

Large powerful Typhoon Hagibis turned toward Japan on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 140.1°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) south of Iwo To.  Hagibis was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 915 mb.

Typhoon Hagibis appeared to complete an eyewall replacement cycle on Tuesday.  The original tiny pinhole eye was no longer visible on satellite imagery.  A larger circular eye with a diameter of 24 miles (39 km) was at the center of Hagibis.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Hagibis.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon in all directions.

Completion of the eyewall replacement cycle increased the size of the circulation around Typhoon Hagibis.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 350 miles (565 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hagibis was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 38.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 73.1.  Hagibis was capable of causing extensive catastrophic damage.

Typhoon Hagibis will move through an environment capable of supporting intense typhoons during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Hagibis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Hagibis will move closer to the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes in two or three days.  Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and Hagibis will weaken when the shear increases.

Typhoon Hagibis will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Hagibis toward the north-northwest during the next 48 hours.  The upper level westerly winds will steer Typhoon Hagibis quickly toward the northeast later this week.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Hagibis could approach the coast of Honshu near Tokyo in 72 to 84 hours.  Hagibis could bring strong winds and heavy rain to Tokyo.  The large circulation around Typhoon Hagibis will mean that much of central Honshu could experience gusty winds and winds to tropical storm force could affect parts of Kyushu and Shikoku.

Typhoon Hagibis Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane over Northern Marianas

Typhoon Hagibis strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Northern Marianas on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 144.8°E which put it about 195 miles (305 km) north-northwest of Guam.  Hagibis was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 915 mb.

Typhoon Hagibis rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Monday.  A small, pinhole eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  A rainband appeared to be wrapping around the original eye and eyewall and an eyewall replacement cycle could be underway.  The start of an eyewall replacement cycle may have ended the period of rapid intensification.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Hagibis.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

The apparent beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle produced an increase in the size of the circulation around Typhoon Hagibis.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 250 miles (400 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hagibis was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 27.8 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 62.8.  Hagibis was capable of causing catastrophic damage.

The center of Typhoon Hagibis passed north of Tinian and Saipan.  Hagibis would have produced very strong winds on some of the Northern Marianas.  The strongest winds would have occurred between Saipan and Alamagan.  Typhoon Hagibis also dropped heavy rain over Saipan, Tinian, Rota and Guam.

Typhoon Hagibis will remain in an environment very favorable for strong typhoons during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Hagibis will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Hagibis is likely to weaken, while the inner eyewall dissipates and the outer eyewall becomes the part of the typhoon with the strongest winds.  Hagibis could strengthen again if the outer eyewall begins to contract.  An eyewall replacement cycle would increase the size of the circulation.

Typhoon Hagibis will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Hagibis toward the northwest during the next several days.  Typhoon Hagibis will move toward the northeast after it moves around the western of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Hagibis could approach the coast of Honshu near Tokyo by the end of this week.