Hurricane Ernesto Hits Bermuda

Hurricane Ernesto hit Bermuda early on Saturday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 32.6°N and longitude 64.6°W which put the center about 15 miles (25 km) north-northeast of Bermuda.    Ernesto was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

The center of Hurricane Ernesto passed over Bermuda early on Saturday.  A weather station at the L.F. Wade International airport reported a sustained wind speed of 61 m.p.h. (98 km/h) and a wind gust of 84 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  There were reports of widespread electricity outages in Bermuda.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Ernesto was large when Ernesto moved over Bermuda.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) from the center of Hurricane Ernesto.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.0.  Hurricane Ernesto was similar in intensity to Hurricane Irene when Irene hit North Carolina in 2011.  Ernesto was not quite as large as Irene was.

Drier air was pulled around the southern side of Hurricane Ernesto as it approached Bermuda.  The drier air caused many of the thunderstorms in the western and southern parts of Ernesto’s circulation to weaken.  Bands in the western and southern sides of Hurricane Ernesto consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Ernesto.  Storms near the center of Ernesto’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern portion of an upper level trough off the east coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ernesto’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The drier air In Ernesto’s circulation will inhibit intensification.  Hurricane Ernesto is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Ernesto will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ernesto toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Ernesto will move away from Bermuda on Saturday.  An upper level trough over the Great Lakes will steer Ernesto toward the northeast more quickly on Sunday.  Hurricane Ernesto could approach Newfoundland on Monday night.

The wind speeds will diminish in Bermuda as Hurricane Ernesto moves farther away on Saturday.

 

 

Hurricane Ernesto Approaches Bermuda

Hurricane Ernesto was approaching Bermuda on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 30.6°N and longitude 65.6°W which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) south-southwest of Bermuda.   Ernesto was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

A circular eye with a diameter of 60 miles (95 km) was present at the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was balanced by the inflow of mass in the lower levels.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Ernesto was large.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) from the center of Hurricane Ernesto.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 24.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.3.  Hurricane Ernesto is similar in size to Hurricane Gustav when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008.  Ernesto is not quite as strong as Gustav  was.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern portion of an upper level trough off the east coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ernesto’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification but Hurricane Ernesto is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Ernesto will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ernesto toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Ernesto will move near Bermuda early on Saturday morning.

Hurricane Ernesto will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Bermuda.  The strong winds will be capable of causing serious damage.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.

 

Typhoon Ampil Passes East of Tokyo

Typhoon Ampil passed east of Tokyo on Friday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Ampil was located at latitude 35.4°N and longitude 142.5°E which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) east of Tokyo, Japan.  Ampil was moving toward the northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Typhoon Ampil was the equivalent of a major hurricane when it passed east of Tokyo on Friday morning.  Bands in the western part of Ampil’s circulation brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to coastal parts of central Honshu.  The airport at Narita reported a sustained wind speed of 32 m.p.h. (52 km/h) and a wind gust of 52 m.p.h. (83 km/h).

A large circular eye was present at the center of Typhoon Ampil.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Ampil’s circulation.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was almost in balance with the inflow of mass in the lower atmosphere.

The circulation around Typhoon Ampil was large. Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Ampil’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Typhoon Ampil.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Ampil was 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.1.  Typhoon Ampil was similar in intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020.  Ampil is larger than Delta was.

Typhoon Ampil will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ampil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  Those westerly winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The increase in vertical wind shear will cause Typhoon Ampil to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The westerly winds in the middle latitudes will steer Typhoon Ampil toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Ampil will move away from Japan.

Hurricane Ernesto Intensifies to Cat. 2

Hurricane Ernesto intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 27.1°N and longitude 68.1°W which put the center about 410 miles (660 km) south-southwest of Bermuda.  Ernesto was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Ernesto has strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was present at the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Ernesto increased on Thursday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 260 miles (420 km) from the center of Hurricane Ernesto.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.2.  Hurricane Ernesto was similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Ernesto is larger than Idalia was.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Ernesto is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Ernesto will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ernesto toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Ernesto will approach Bermuda on Friday night.  The center of Ernesto will be near Bermuda on Saturday morning.

Hurricane Ernesto will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Bermuda.  The strong winds will be capable of causing serious damage.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.

 

Typhoon Ampil Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Ampil strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane south of Tokyo on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Ampil was located at latitude 33.0°N and longitude 140.9°E which put the center about 205 miles (330 km) south-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Ampil was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

A large circular eye was present at the center of Typhoon Ampil.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Ampil’s circulation.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Ampil was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Ampil’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of Typhoon Ampil.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Ampil was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 37.7.  Typhoon Ampil was similar in intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020.  Ampil is bigger than Delta was.

Typhoon Ampil will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Ampil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Ampil could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours.  Ampil Will move into an area where there are stronger westerly winds in the upper level within 24 hours.  Those stronger winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Typhoon Ampil will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Typhoon Ampil will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ampil toward the north during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Ampil will be near the coast of central Honshu just to the southeast of Tokyo in 12 hours.  Ampil will start to move toward the east when it reaches the westerly winds in the upper levels.

Typhoon Ampil will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of central Honshu south and east of Tokyo.  Strong winds will be capable of causing serious damage.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

 

Hurricane Ernesto Churns Toward Bermuda

Hurricane Ernesto churned toward Bermuda on Thursday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 25.4°N and longitude 69.3°W which put the center about 550 miles (885 km) south-southwest of Bermuda.  Ernesto was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Ernesto continued to strengthen gradually on Thursday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Ernesto’s circulation several times.  However, dry air spiraled into the center of Hurricane Ernesto each time and an eyewall failed to form.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Ernesto generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease gradually.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Ernesto increased on Thursday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Ernesto will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Ernesto will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ernesto toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Ernesto will approach Bermuda on Friday night.

 

Ernesto Prompts Hurricane Watch for Bermuda

The risk posed by Hurricane Ernesto prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for Bermuda.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 68.9°W which put the center about 690 miles (1110 km) south-southwest of Bermuda.  Ernesto was moving toward the north-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Ernesto continued to strengthen gradually on Wednesday evening.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  A circular eye appeared intermittently on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Hurricane Ernesto.  Storms near the center of Ernesto generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Ernesto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Ernesto will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Ernesto will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ernesto toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Ernesto will approach Bermuda on Friday night.

 

Ernesto Strengthens to a Hurricane Northwest of Puerto Rico

Former Tropical Storm Ernesto strengthened to a hurricane northwest of Puerto Rico on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 20.5°N and longitude 70.6°W which put the center about 175 miles (285 km) northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico.  Ernesto was moving toward the northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that formed Tropical Storm Ernesto had strengthened to a hurricane northwest of Puerto Rico on Wednesday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Hurricane Ernesto.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Ernesto.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Ernesto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level  winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Ernesto will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Ernesto will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ernesto toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Ernesto will move away from Puerto Rico.  Ernesto could approach Bermuda on Friday night.

Ampil Strengthens to a Typhoon South of Japan

Former Tropical Storm Ampil strengthened to a typhoon south of Japan on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Ampil was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 141.1°E which put the center about 540 miles (870 km) south of Tokyo, Japan.  Ampil was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Ampil strengthened to a typhoon south of Japan on Wednesday morning.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Typhoon Ampil’s circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Ampil.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Ampil’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Typhoon Ampil.

Typhoon Ampil will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ampil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Ampil will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Ampil could intensify rapidly at times.  Typhoon Ampil could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 36 hours.

Typhoon Ampil will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ampil toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Ampil will be near the coast of central Honshu in 48 hours.

 

Tropical Storm Ernesto Brings Wind and Rain to the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Ernesto brought wind and rain to the Leeward Islands on Tuesday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 61.9°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) northwest of Guadeloupe.  Ernesto was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Guadeloupe, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, St, Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, Sint Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto on Tuesday morning.  Those thunderstorms generated more upper level divergence that removed mass from the tropical storm.  The removal of more mass cause the surface pressure to decrease.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Ernesto’s circulation

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Ernesto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern side of Ernesto’s circulation.  The winds in the southern part of Ernesto were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ernesto’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Ernesto will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave quickly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ernesto will reach Puerto Rico on Tuesday night.

Tropical Storm Ernesto will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Leeward Islands, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  The winds could be strong enough to cause localized outages of electricity.  Ernesto could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter).