Tag Archives: HWISI

Typhoon Shanshan Continues to Strengthen

Typhoon Shanshan continues to strengthen over the Western North Pacific Ocean south of Japan on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Shanshan was located at latitude 27.3°N and longitude 133.5°E which put the center about 350 miles (565 km) south-southeast of Kagoshima, Japan.  Shanshan was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Typhoon Shanshan strengthened gradually on Sunday as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean south of Japan.  A large circular eye was present at the center of Shanshan’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Shanshan.  Storms near the core of Shanshan’s circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around typhoon Shanshan increased slightly on Sunday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Shanshan’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (230 km) from the center of Typhoon Shanshan.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Shanshan was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 25.6.

Typhoon Shanshan will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Shanshan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the northern periphery of an upper level low south of Japan.  The upper level low will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Shanshan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Shanshan will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Shanshan will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Shanshan toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Shanshan will move closer to Kyushu and Shikoku.  Shanshan could approach southwestern Japan in 48 hours.  Shanshan could be a strong typhoon when it approaches Japan.

 

Hurricane Ernesto Approaches Bermuda

Hurricane Ernesto was approaching Bermuda on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 30.6°N and longitude 65.6°W which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) south-southwest of Bermuda.   Ernesto was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

A circular eye with a diameter of 60 miles (95 km) was present at the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was balanced by the inflow of mass in the lower levels.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Ernesto was large.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) from the center of Hurricane Ernesto.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 24.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.3.  Hurricane Ernesto is similar in size to Hurricane Gustav when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008.  Ernesto is not quite as strong as Gustav  was.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern portion of an upper level trough off the east coast of the U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ernesto’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification but Hurricane Ernesto is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Ernesto will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ernesto toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Ernesto will move near Bermuda early on Saturday morning.

Hurricane Ernesto will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Bermuda.  The strong winds will be capable of causing serious damage.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.

 

Typhoon Ampil Passes East of Tokyo

Typhoon Ampil passed east of Tokyo on Friday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Ampil was located at latitude 35.4°N and longitude 142.5°E which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) east of Tokyo, Japan.  Ampil was moving toward the northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Typhoon Ampil was the equivalent of a major hurricane when it passed east of Tokyo on Friday morning.  Bands in the western part of Ampil’s circulation brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to coastal parts of central Honshu.  The airport at Narita reported a sustained wind speed of 32 m.p.h. (52 km/h) and a wind gust of 52 m.p.h. (83 km/h).

A large circular eye was present at the center of Typhoon Ampil.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Ampil’s circulation.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was almost in balance with the inflow of mass in the lower atmosphere.

The circulation around Typhoon Ampil was large. Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Ampil’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Typhoon Ampil.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Ampil was 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.1.  Typhoon Ampil was similar in intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020.  Ampil is larger than Delta was.

Typhoon Ampil will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ampil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  Those westerly winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The increase in vertical wind shear will cause Typhoon Ampil to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The westerly winds in the middle latitudes will steer Typhoon Ampil toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Ampil will move away from Japan.

Hurricane Ernesto Intensifies to Cat. 2

Hurricane Ernesto intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 27.1°N and longitude 68.1°W which put the center about 410 miles (660 km) south-southwest of Bermuda.  Ernesto was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Ernesto has strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was present at the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Ernesto increased on Thursday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 260 miles (420 km) from the center of Hurricane Ernesto.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.2.  Hurricane Ernesto was similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Ernesto is larger than Idalia was.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Ernesto is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Ernesto will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ernesto toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Ernesto will approach Bermuda on Friday night.  The center of Ernesto will be near Bermuda on Saturday morning.

Hurricane Ernesto will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Bermuda.  The strong winds will be capable of causing serious damage.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.

 

Typhoon Ampil Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Ampil strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane south of Tokyo on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Ampil was located at latitude 33.0°N and longitude 140.9°E which put the center about 205 miles (330 km) south-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Ampil was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

A large circular eye was present at the center of Typhoon Ampil.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Ampil’s circulation.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Ampil was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Ampil’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of Typhoon Ampil.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Ampil was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 37.7.  Typhoon Ampil was similar in intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020.  Ampil is bigger than Delta was.

Typhoon Ampil will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Ampil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Ampil could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours.  Ampil Will move into an area where there are stronger westerly winds in the upper level within 24 hours.  Those stronger winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Typhoon Ampil will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Typhoon Ampil will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ampil toward the north during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Ampil will be near the coast of central Honshu just to the southeast of Tokyo in 12 hours.  Ampil will start to move toward the east when it reaches the westerly winds in the upper levels.

Typhoon Ampil will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of central Honshu south and east of Tokyo.  Strong winds will be capable of causing serious damage.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

 

Typhoon Gaemi Batters Taiwan

Typhoon Gaemi battered Taiwan on Wednesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Gaemi was located at latitude 24.0°N and longitude 121.4°E which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) south of Taipei, Taiwan.  Gaemi was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 928 mb.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall of Typhoon Gaemi as it approached the east coast of Taiwan.  Concentric eyewalls formed in the core of Gaemi’s circulation.  The diameter of the inner eye was 7 miles (11 km).  The inner eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Gaemi.

The inner eye of Typhoon Gaemi began to make a counterclockwise loop inside the outer eyewall as Gaemi neared the east coast of Taiwan.  Mountains in Taiwan also deflected winds blowing around the western side of Typhoon Gaemi.  The deflection of the winds by the mountains also contributed to the counterclockwise loop of the inner eye.  The inner eye made landfall near Yilan City after it completed the counterclockwise loop.

The circulation around Typhoon Gaemi was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Gaemi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 315 miles (510 km) from the center of Typhoon Gaemi.

Typhoon Gaemi was the equivalent of a major hurricane at the time of landfall.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 35.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 58.8.  Typhoon Gaemi was as strong as Hurricane Katrina was when Katrina made landfall on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.  Gaemi was larger than Katrina was when Katrina made landfall.

Typhoon Gamei was producing strong winds in Taiwan.  Gaemi was also dropping very heavy rain over parts of Taiwan.  Prolonged heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in many locations.  Typhoon Gaemi was also causing a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast of northern Taiwan where the wind was blowing water toward the coast.

Typhoon Gaemi will move toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  Gaemi will continue to produce strong winds and heavy rain in Taiwan for another 12 to 24 hours.  The center of Typhoon Gaemi will move over the Taiwan Strait in a few hours.  Gaemi will make another landfall on the east coast of China in about 18 hours.

Typhoon Gaemi Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Gaemi strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Taiwan on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Gaemi was located at latitude 23.1°N and longitude 123.2°E which put the center about 200 miles (325 km) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Gaemi was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Typhoon Gaemi rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale east of Taiwan on Tuesday.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 6 miles (10 km) formed at the center of Gaemi’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storm.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Gaemi.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Gaemi was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Gaemi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) from the center of Typhoon Gaemi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Gaemi was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 31.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 59.3.  Typhoon Gaemi was similar in size to Hurricane Wilma when Wilma hit South Florida in 2005.  Gaemi is stronger than Wilma was when it hit South Florida.

Typhoon Gaemi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Gaemi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Gaemi could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours.

Typhoon Gaemi will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Typhoon Gaemi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Gaemi will approach the coast of northeastern Taiwan in 12 hours.

Typhoon Gaemi will bring very strong winds and torrential rain to Taiwan.  Gaemi will be capable of causing extensive severe damage.  Heavy rain is likely to cause widespread flash floods.  Typhoon Gaemi will also be capable of causing a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the east coast of Taiwan.

Typhoon Gaemi will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands.  The strongest part Gaemi’s circulation will pass southwest of the Ryukyu Islands, but the typhoon is likely to some wind damage.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Typhoon Gaemi will move toward the east coast of China after is crosses northern Taiwan.  Gaemi could approach the coast of China in less than 36 hours.  Typhoon Gaemi will weaken when it moves over Taiwan, but Gaemi could still be a typhoon when it reaches China.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Prapiroon weakened to a tropical depression over northern Vietnam.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Prapiroon was located at latitude 22.0°N and longitude 107.0°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Lang Son, Vietnam.  Prapiroon was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Hurricane Beryl Makes Landfall in Texas

Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the coast of Texas at Matagorda early on Monday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 28.6°N and longitude 96.0°W which put the center at Matagorda, Texas.  Beryl was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mesquite Bay to Port Bolivar, Texas.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Bolivar to Sabine Pass, Texas.

A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mesquite Bay to Sabine Pass, Texas.

The center of Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the coast of Texas at Matagorda early on Monday morning.  Beryl was intensifying at the time of landfall.  A circular eye with a diameter of 32 miles (52 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye of Hurricane Beryl passed directly over Matagorda Texas.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The strongest winds in Hurricane Beryl were occurring in the eastern half of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the eastern side of Beryl.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 11.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 21.8.  Hurricane Beryl was not quite as strong as Hurricane Dolly was when Dolly hit South Texas in 2008.  Beryl was a little smaller that Dolly was.

A weather station at Matagorda, Texas (EMAT2) reported a sustained wind speed of 68 m.p.h. (110 km/h) when the northern part of the eyewall passed over the station.  The station also reported a wind gust of 86 m.p.h. (139 km/h).  The station reported a surface pressure of 980 mb when the eye of Hurricane Beryl was over it.

A weather station at Freeport, Texas (FPST2) reported a sustained wind speed of 71 m.p.h. (115 km/h) and a wind gust of 86 m.p.h. (139 km/h).

Heavy rain was falling over parts of eastern Texas.  Heavy rain was falling in Houston and Galveston.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the north during the next 12 hours. Hurricane Beryl will start to move toward the northeast on Monday night.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will pass over Bay City, Texas.  The center of Beryl will pass just to the west of Houston in a few hours.

Hurricane Beryl will start to weaken gradually as the center of Beryl’s circulation moves farther inland.  Beryl will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of eastern Texas.  Hurricane Beryl will be capable of causing regional minor damage.  The strongest winds will be in the eastern side of Hurricane Beryl.  Beryl will bring strong winds to Galveston and Houston.  The strong winds are likely to cause electricity outages.

Hurricane Beryl could drop up to 10 inches (250 mm) of rain on some locations.   Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding.  Flood Watches are in effect for parts of eastern Texas.  Flood Watches are also in effect for parts of southeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Arkansas and northwestern Louisiana.  Hurricane Beryl could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) where the wind pushes water toward the coast.

 

Hurricane Beryl Hits the Yucatan

Hurricane Beryl hit the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 87.6°W which put the center about 15 miles (25 km) north-northwest of Tulum, Mexico.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for Cozumel.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Cancun, Mexico.   A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the coast of Mexico near Tulum on Friday morning.  Beryl was a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core of Beryl’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 25.8.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that extends over the western Atlantic Ocean and southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will move across the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula during the rest of Friday.

Hurricane Beryl will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Strong winds and heavy rain will occur in Quintana Roo and Yucatan.  Beryl is capable of causing serious damage.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the portion of the coast north of Tulum.

Hurricane Beryl will weaken as it moves across the Yucatan Peninsula.  Beryl will likely weaken to a tropical storm while it is over the Yucatan.  Hurricane Beryl will move over the western Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.  Beryl will move into an environment somewhat favorable for intensification when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level low will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent strengthening.  Beryl could could intensify back to a hurricane when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Beryl will move more toward the northwest during the weekend.  Beryl could approach the coast of Texas on Sunday.  Watches may be issued for the coast later on Friday or on Saturday.

 

Hurricane Beryl Approaches the Yucatan

Hurricane Beryl was approaching the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 85.5°W which put the center about 135 miles (220 km) east-southeast of Tulum, Mexico.  Beryl was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for Cozumel.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Cancun, Mexico.   A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.

After weakening earlier on Thursday, a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Beryl had strengthened back to a major hurricane on Thursday evening.  The reconnaissance plane found an eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core of Beryl’s circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The increase in upper level divergence caused the surface pressure to decrease again.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl decreased on Thursday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.4.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit Alabama in 2020.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent strengthening  Hurricane Beryl could intensify during the next few hours.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that extends over the western Atlantic Ocean and southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will reach the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday morning.

Hurricane Beryl will be able to cause regional major damage when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.  Beryl will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Yucatan.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast.