Tropical Storm Nuri Develops of South China Sea

Tropical Storm Nuri developed over the South China Sea on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Nuri was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 116.4°E which put it about 360 miles (580 km) south-southeast of Hong Kong.  Nuri was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

The wind speed around former Tropical Depression 02W increased on Friday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Nuri.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Nuri was asymmetrical.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of the circulation.  Bands in the eastern and northern portions of Tropical Storm Nuri consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms near the center of Nuri began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Nuri will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge centered over eastern China.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification.  The wind shear could also cause the distribution of thunderstorms to remain asymmetrical.  Tropical Storm Nuri is likely to get stronger during the next 24 hours in spite of the vertical wind shear.

Tropical Storm Nuri will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Nuri toward the northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Nuri will approach the coast of China southwest of Hong Kong in about 24 hours.  Nuri will drop locally heavy rain over parts of southeastern China.

Tropical Depression Develops West of Luzon

A tropical depression developed west of Luzon on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression 02W was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 119.2°E which put it about 135 miles (215 km) northwest of Manila, Philippines.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

An area of low pressure moved west of Luzon on Thursday night and several weather agencies classified the system as a tropical depression.  The circulation around Tropical Depression 02W was not well organized.  There were a number of fragmented bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving around the center of the depression.  The strongest thunderstorms were in bands west and north of the center.  Bands east of the center of circulation were still over the Philippines and those bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression 02W will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30.5°C.  It will move under the southwestern portion of an upper level ridge centered northeast of Taiwan.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the depression.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Depression 02W is likely to intensify into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours in spite of the vertical wind shear.

Tropical Depression 02W will move around the southwestern end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the northwest during the next 36 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression 02W will approach the coast of China west of Hong Kong in about 48 hours.  It will likely be a tropical storm at that time.

Tropical Depression Cristobal Brings Rain to Lower Mississippi River Valley

Tropical Depression Cristobal brought rain to the lower Mississippi River Valley on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located at latitude 34.8°N and longitude 92.8°W which put it about 10 miles (15 km) west of Little Rock, Arkansas.  Cristobal was moving toward the north-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Depression Cristobal moved northward across Louisiana and Arkansas on Monday.  Steadier rain fell in the northern part of the circulation around Cristobal.  Diverging air from a surface high pressure system east of the Great Lakes converged with the circulation around the northern side of Tropical Depression Cristobal to produce rising motion.  The rising motion produced the steadier rain.  Thunderstorms in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Cristobal dropped locally heavy rain over parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.  Jackson, Mississippi received 2.49 inches (6.3 cm) of rain.  Little Rock, Arkansas received 1.49 inches (3.8 cm) of rain.

Tropical Depression Cristobal will move around the western side of a high pressure system.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north during the next several days.  The circulation around Tropical Depression Cristobal retained tropical characteristics on Monday night.  Radiosonde data from Little Rock and Jackson, Mississippi showed that there was still a warm core in the middle troposphere.  Cristobal is forecast to make a gradual transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 to 36 hours.  The circulation could strengthen during the extratropical transition and a Gale Warning has been issued for Lake Michigan.  Flood Watches were also in effect for locations from Mississippi to Wisconsin.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Causes Storm Surge on Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Cristobal caused a storm surge on the Gulf Coast on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 30.3°N and longitude 90.2°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) north-northwest of New Orleans, Louisiana.  Cristobal was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida.

The large circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal blew water toward the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.  The wind produced a rise in the water level from northwest Florida to southeast Louisiana.  The highest storm surges occurred along the coast of Mississippi and southeast Louisiana.  The water level reached 7.47 feet (2.28 m) at the Waveland Yacht Club in Mississippi.  The storm surge was 7.62 feet (2.32 m) at Shell Beach in Louisiana.  The storm surge covered coastal roads in Grand Isle, Louisiana and Biloxi, Mississippi.

The broad center of Tropical Storm Cristobal passed across the Lower Mississippi River delta on Sunday afternoon before it moved over New Orleans.  Cristobal began to weaken slowly as it moved inland.  Winds to tropical storm force were still occurring in the southeastern part of the circulation which was still over the Gulf of Mexico.  Most of the rain was falling in bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Cristobal.  Locally heavy rain fell over Northwest Florida, Southwest Alabama, Southern Mississippi and Southeastern Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cristobal will move over Louisiana and Arkansas on Monday.  Cristobal will continue to weaken slowly as it moves farther inland.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Mississippi, eastern Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri.  Flood Watches have been issued for some of those areas.

Large Tropical Storm Cristobal Churns Toward Louisiana

Large Tropical Storm Cristobal churned toward the coast of Louisiana on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 26.2°N and longitude 90.2°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south of Grand Isle, Louisiana.  Cristobal was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal continued to be very large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) to the east of the center of Cristobal.  A thunderstorm in a rainband on the eastern periphery of the circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal produced a tornado near Orlando, Florida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the western half of the circulation.  The winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force near the center of circulation.  The center passed just to the west of NOAA buoy 42001 on Saturday evening.  The buoy measured a surface pressure of 29.34 inches (993.8 mb).  More thunderstorms appeared to be forming north and south of the center of circulation on Saturday night.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the the shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will strengthen on Sunday.  If thunderstorms consolidate around the center of circulation, then there is a chance that Cristobal could strengthen into a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system on Sunday.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north.  A ridge in the middle troposphere will move north of Tropical Storm Cristobal later on Sunday.  The ridge will turn Cristobal toward the north-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cristobal will approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday afternoon.  The center of Cristobal could make landfall between Grand Isle and Morgan City.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will bring gusty winds to Northwest Florida, Southwest Alabama, Southern Mississippi and Southeastern Louisiana.  Those winds will push water toward the coast.  A storm surge of 1 to 4 feet (0.3 to 1.3 meters) will be possible.  The water level could rise 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) in parts of southeastern Louisiana.  Areas outside of levee protection systems could go under water.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will drop heavy rain over parts of southern Mississippi and Southeastern Louisiana.  Flash Flood Watches have been issued for those regions.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Slowly Strengthens

Tropical Storm Cristobal slowly strengthened on Saturday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 24.2°N and longitude 90.1°W which put it about 345 miles (555 km) south of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Cristobal was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida.

Although Tropical Storm Cristobal still did not exhibit the typical structure of a tropical storm, the circulation around it was more organized on Saturday morning.  A band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in a part of this band about 100 miles (160 km) south of the center of Cristobal.  A few thunderstorms formed just to the west of the center of circulation.  The structure of the wind field around Tropical Storm Cristobal was still asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) to the east of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 140 miles (220 km) on the western side of Cristobal.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will produce some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification.  The flow around the ridge will enhance upper level divergence to the northeast of Cristobal.  Enhanced upper level divergence could pump away enough mass to allow the surface pressure to decrease.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will strengthen during the next 24 hours.  If more thunderstorms form close to the center of circulation and an inner core develops, then there is a chance Cristobal could intensify into a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north during the next 18 to 24 hours.  A ridge in the middle levels will move north of Tropical Storm Cristobal on Sunday afternoon.  That ridge could force Cristobal to move toward the north-northwest for a few hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal could approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday afternoon.

The large circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal means that it will bring gusty winds to Northwest Florida, Southwest Alabama, Southern Mississippi, and Southeast Louisiana.  Those winds will push water toward the coast and they will cause a storm surge on the northern Gulf Coast.  The water level could rise 1 to 4 feet (0.3 to 1.3 meters) along the coast.  The storm surge could be 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) in parts of southeast Louisiana.  Areas outside levee systems could go under water.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will also drop heavy rain over southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana.  Fresh water flooding could occur.  Flood Watches have been issued for parts of those regions.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Moves Toward Louisiana

Tropical Storm Cristobal moved toward Louisiana on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 90.1°W which put it about 440 miles (705 km) south of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Cristobal was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City to Morgan City, Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Cristobal strengthened slowly after the center of circulation moved over the southern Gulf of Mexico.  Cristobal moved under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The flow around the ridge created upper level divergence which pumped away mass and caused the surface pressure to decrease by several millibars.  Cristobal strengthened back to a tropical storm when the wind speed increased in response to the decrease in pressure.  The distribution of thunderstorms and the wind field around Tropical Storm Cristobal remained asymmetrical.  The strongest rainbands wrapped around the eastern and northern sides if the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) on the eastern side of Cristobal.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) northwest of the center of circulation.  The winds in the southwestern part of the circulation were mostly below tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will continue to move under the western side of the upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, which will inhibit intensification.  However, the ridge will continue to create upper level divergence which will support intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Cristobal will strengthen on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cristobal will approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday afternoon.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal is large and winds to tropical storm force will reach the coast around the northern Gulf of Mexico several hours before the center makes landfall.  Cristobal will bring gusty winds to the portion of the coast from Northwest Florida to Southeast Louisiana on Sunday.  Those winds will blow water toward the coast and they will cause a storm surge of 1 to 4 feet (0.3 to 1.3 meters) in many locations.  The water could rise by 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) in some locations.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will also drop heavy rain over parts of Northwest Florida, Southwest Alabama, Southern Mississippi and Southeast Louisiana.  Flood Watches have been issued for some of those areas.

Tropical Depression Cristobal Moves North, Watches Issued for U.S. Gulf Coast

Tropical Depression Cristobal began to move toward the north on Friday morning and watches were issued for parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 89.9°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) east of Campeche, Mexico.  Cristobal was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the border between Alabama and Florida including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos.

The circulation around Tropical Depression Cristobal exhibited more organization on Friday morning.  Bands of strong thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern and northern portions of the circulation.  Bands in the southern and western sides of Cristobal still consisted primarily of shower and lower clouds.  The center of circulation was still over the Yucatan peninsula and there were not a lot of thunderstorms close to the center.

Tropical Depression Cristobal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be large enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression Cristobal will strengthen into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Cristobal will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north during the next 36 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal could approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday afternoon.  Cristobal is likely to be a tropical storm when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast but there is a slight chance it could be a hurricane at that time.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will bring gusty winds to the north central Gulf Coast.  Those winds will push water toward the shore and they will generate a storm surge along the coast.  Many places could experience a rise in the water level of 1 to 4 feet (0.3 to 1.3 meters).  In some locations the water level could rise 4 to 6 feet (1.3 to 2.0 meters).  Rainbands on the northern and eastern sides of Cristobal could drop heavy rain.  Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into Tropical Depression Cristobal on Friday evening.  Their observations should provide important information about the circulation around Cristobal.

Tropical Depression Cristobal Meanders over the Yucatan

Tropical Depression Cristobal meandered over the Yucatan peninsula on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 90.4°W which put it about 145 miles (235 km) south of Campeche, Mexico.  Cristobal was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Depression Cristobal weakened on Thursday while the circulation meandered over the Yucatan peninsula.  Winds speeds gradually diminished because much of the circulation of Cristobal was over land.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  There were still strong thunderstorms in bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  Some of those bands were dropping heavy rain over the Yucatan peninsula, northern Belize and northern Guatemala.

Tropical Depression Cristobal will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea during the next several days.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Cristobal will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday.  Cristobal could approach the coast around the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Tropical Depression Cristobal will move into an environment somewhat favorable for intensification when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will be large enough to slow intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening of Cristobal.  Tropical Depression Cristobal is likely to intensify back into a tropical storm over the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Cristobal could approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday.  Watches could be issued for portions of the coast on Friday.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Drops Heavy Rain on Campeche

Tropical Storm Cristobal dropped heavy rain on Campeche on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 91.8°W which put it about 20 miles (35 km) south of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico.  Cristobal was moving toward the southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Coatzacoalcos,, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal move slowly onto the coast of Mexico just west of Ciudad del Carmen on Wednesday.  The circulation around Cristobal began to weaken slowly as the center moved over land.  However, the large circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal meant that a significant portion of the tropical storm was still over water.  That allowed Cristobal to extract energy from the Bay of Campeche to support its circulation.

A weather radar at Sabancuy, Mexico showed that the circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal remained well organized.  Strong bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Cristobal.  The bands were dropping heavy rain over parts of Campeche and flooding was likely in some areas that received persistent heavy rain.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will be near the center of a larger counterclockwise circulation sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG) during the next 24 to 36 hours.  The steering currents are weak at the center of the CAG and it will likely cause Cristobal to move in a slow counterclockwise loop on Thursday.  The CAG will contract around Tropical Storm Cristobal during the next day or so.  A high pressure system over the western North Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea will start to steer Cristobal toward the north on Friday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cristobal could approach the north coast of the Gulf of Mexico by late in the upcoming weekend.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will weaken slowly while the center is over land.  It could weaken to a tropical depression on Thursday.  However, Cristobal will continue to drop heavy rain over Campeche and parts of the Yucatan peninsula.  Very serious flooding could result from the heavy rainfall.  Tropical Storm Cristobal is likely to strengthen once the center of circulation moves back over the Gulf of Mexico on Friday.