Tropical Storm Cristobal Drops Heavy Rain on Campeche

Tropical Storm Cristobal dropped heavy rain on Campeche on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 91.8°W which put it about 20 miles (35 km) south of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico.  Cristobal was moving toward the southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Coatzacoalcos,, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal move slowly onto the coast of Mexico just west of Ciudad del Carmen on Wednesday.  The circulation around Cristobal began to weaken slowly as the center moved over land.  However, the large circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal meant that a significant portion of the tropical storm was still over water.  That allowed Cristobal to extract energy from the Bay of Campeche to support its circulation.

A weather radar at Sabancuy, Mexico showed that the circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal remained well organized.  Strong bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Cristobal.  The bands were dropping heavy rain over parts of Campeche and flooding was likely in some areas that received persistent heavy rain.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will be near the center of a larger counterclockwise circulation sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG) during the next 24 to 36 hours.  The steering currents are weak at the center of the CAG and it will likely cause Cristobal to move in a slow counterclockwise loop on Thursday.  The CAG will contract around Tropical Storm Cristobal during the next day or so.  A high pressure system over the western North Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea will start to steer Cristobal toward the north on Friday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cristobal could approach the north coast of the Gulf of Mexico by late in the upcoming weekend.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will weaken slowly while the center is over land.  It could weaken to a tropical depression on Thursday.  However, Cristobal will continue to drop heavy rain over Campeche and parts of the Yucatan peninsula.  Very serious flooding could result from the heavy rainfall.  Tropical Storm Cristobal is likely to strengthen once the center of circulation moves back over the Gulf of Mexico on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Nisagra Makes Landfall South of Mumbai

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga made landfall south of Mumbai, India on Wednesday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 73.3°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) south of Mumbai, India.  Nisarga was moving toward the northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Tuesday night before it made landfall on the west coast of India.  An eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) formed at the center of Nisarga.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga at the time of landfall.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga brought winds to hurricane/typhoon force to a portion of the west coast of India south of Mumbai.  Those winds would have pushed water toward the coast.  The would have generated a storms surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) near where the center of Nisarga made landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will drop heavy rain over parts of Maharashtra.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Strengthening Tropical Cyclone Nisarga Nears Mumbai

Strengthening Tropical Cyclone Nisarga neared  Mumbai, India on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 72.4°E which put it about 140 miles (225 km) south-southwest of Mumbai, India.  Nisarga was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga strengthened quickly on Tuesday night as it moved closer to the west coast of India.  An eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Nisarga.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will move around the western end of a high pressure system over India.  The high will steer Nisarga toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will make landfall on the west coast of India south of Mumbai in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will continue to intensify until it makes landfall.  Nisarga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge centered over India.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of Nisarga.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Nisarga is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon before it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will bring strong winds to the west coast of India.  Those winds will push water toward the coast and they could cause a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) near Mumbai and near where the center makes landfall.  Nisarga will also drop heavy rain over parts of Maharashtra.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Depression Three Strengthens Into Tropical Storm Cristobal

Former Tropical Depression Three strengthened into Tropical Storm Cristobal on Tuesday.  At 12:15 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 92.7°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) northwest of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico.  Cristobal was moving toward the southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz, Mexico

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane investigating former Tropical Depression Three on Tuesday found sustained winds of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Cristobal.  The formation of Tropical Storm Cristobal on June 2 is the earliest date for the formation on the third named storm over the Atlantic Basin (including the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) in the historical record.

The reconnaissance plane found that the circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal was continuing to get better organized.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers were revolving around the center of Cristobal.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge centered over the western Caribbean Sea.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Cristobal is likely to strengthen during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move around the northwestern part of a larger counterclockwise circulation sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG).  The CAG will steer Cristobal toward the southwest during the next few hours.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will move more toward the south on Tuesday night.  The larger CAG will slowly contract around the circulation of Cristobal during the next several days.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will meander slowly near the south coast of the Bay of Campeche while the CAG contracts.  Eventually, a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean will steer Cristobal northward toward the U.S.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will mix cooler water to the surface while it meanders over the southern Bay of Campeche.  The cooler water will reduce the energy available to Cristobal and the tropical storm could weaken during the middle of the week.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will weaken even more if the center of circulation moves over land.  Cristobal will drop heavy rain over Campeche, Tabasco and eastern Veracruz.  Prolonged heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga Develops West of India

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga developed west of India on Tuesday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga was located at latitude 16.0° and longitude 71.2°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) south-southwest of Mumbai, India.  Nisarga was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Arabian Sea west of India strengthened on Tuesday and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Nisarga.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Nisarga.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  The strongest rainbands were in the western half of the tropical cyclone.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nisarga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge centered over India.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will produce some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent the intensification of Tropical Cyclone Nisagra.  Nisagra could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will move around the western end of a high pressure system over India.  The high will steer Nisarga toward the north during the next 12 hours.  Nisarga will move more toward the north-northeast when it moves around the northwestern part of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Nisarga could approach Mumbai in about 24 hours.  Nisarga could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches Mumbai.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mumbai on Wednesday.  Nisarga could also cause a storm surge of  3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) in the area around Mumbai where the wind blows the water toward the coast.  Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Maharashtra and southern Gujarat.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations,

Tropical Depression Three Develops Over Bay of Campeche

Tropical Depression Three developed over the Bay of Campeche on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Three was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 91.2°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) north-northeast of Carmen, Mexico.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz.  

The remnants of the center of circulation of former Tropical Storm Amanda moved northward across Honduras and emerged over the eastern Bay of Campeche on Monday afternoon.  The National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Three and initiated advisories on the system.

More thunderstorms began to form on the northern side of Tropical Depression Three after the center of circulation moved over the eastern Bay of Campeche.  More thunderstorms were developing near the center.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms that included the remnants of the the circulation of former Tropical Storm Amanda were revolving around the center of the depression.

Tropical Depression Three will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the depression.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression Three is likely to intensify into a tropical storm on Tuesday.

Tropical Depression Three will move around the northern side of a larger counterclockwise circulation sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG).  The CAG will steer the depression toward the west-northwest during the next 12 to 24 hours.   The depression could move toward the southwest on Tuesday when it moves around the northwestern part of the CAG.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Three could approach the coast around the southern Bay of Campeche.   The depression could drop heavy rain over Campeche, Tabasco and eastern Veracruz.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Amanda Drops Heavy Rain on Guatemala and El Salvador

Tropical Storm Amanda dropped heavy rain on parts of Guatemala and El Salvador on Sunday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Amanda was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 90.4°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southeast of Guatemala City, Guatemala.  Amanda was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings remained in effect for the entire coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Two-E strengthened on Sunday morning as it approached the coast of Guatemala and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Amanda.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) on the eastern side of Amanda.  Winds on the western side of the circulation were mostly less than tropical storm force.

The heaviest rain in Tropical Storm Amanda was falling near the center of circulation and in bands on the eastern side of the circulation.  Tropical Storm Amanda was located on the eastern side of a much larger counterclockwise circulation that is sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG).  The CAG will steer Amanda toward the north during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Amanda will move across Guatemala toward the southern Yucatan peninsula.  Amanda will drop locally heavy rain over parts of El Salvador, Guatemala, Belize and eastern Mexico.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

The lower level part of the circulation of Tropical Storm Amanda will weaken while the tropical storm moves over land.  The circulation of Amanda that is above the surface could move over the Bay of Campeche early next week.  A new tropical cyclone could form over the Bay of Campeche if that happens.  The National Hurricane Center is indicating that there is a 50% probability of the formation of a tropical cyclone over the Bay of Campeche during the next five days.

Tropical Depression Two-E Forms Near Guatemala

Tropical Depression Two-E formed near the coast of Guatemala on Saturday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Two-E was located at latitude 12.6°N and longitude 91.0°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) south of Puerto San Jose, Guatemala.  The depression was moving toward the north-northeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the entire coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala.

A distinct center of circulation developed south of the coast of Guatemala on Saturday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Two-E.  Thunderstorms continued to form near the center.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the depression.  The depression was near the center of a much larger counterclockwise circulation that is sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG).

Tropical Depression Two-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge over Central America.  The upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Two-E could strengthen during the next few hours and there is a chance it could intensify into a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression Two-E will move around the western end of a high pressure system.  The high will steer the depression toward the north-northeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Two-E will make landfall on the coast of Guatemala on Sunday.  The depression could drop heavy rain over  Guatemala, El Salvador and western Honduras.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Depression Forms Near Western Oman

A Tropical Depression formed over the Arabian Sea near the coast of western Oman on Friday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 54.2°E which put it about 10 miles (15 km) southeast of Salalah, Oman.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a small low pressure system near the coast of western Oman on Friday and the India Meteorological Department classified the system as a depression.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of the depression.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the depression in all directions.

The tropical depression will move through an environment favorable for intensification if the center remains over water.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  The depression will be under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak.  There will be little vertical wind shear and the upper level ridge will enhance upper level divergence.  If the center of the tropical depression remains over the Arabian Sea, then it is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a tropical storm during the next 24 to 48 hours.  If the center of circulation moves inland over western Oman and eastern Yemen, then intensification becomes much less likely.

The tropical depression will move under the upper level ridge and the steering winds will be very weak.  The depression is forecast to drift very slowly toward the west during the next several days,  The center of the depression could remain just off the coast or it could move slowly inland.  The slow movement of the depression will allow it to drop locally heavy rain over parts of western Oman and eastern Yemen.  The heavy rain could very likely cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Bertha Brings Wind and Rain to the Carolinas

Tropical Storm Bertha brought wind and rain to the Carolinas on Wednesday.  Bertha weakened to a tropical depression after it moved inland on Wednesday afternoon.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Bertha was located at latitude 36.0°N and longitude 80.5°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) west of Greensboro, North Carolina.  Bertha was moving toward the north at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h.  (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Flash Flood Watches were in effect for northeast South Carolina, southern and west central North Carolina, southwest Virginia and southwest West Virginia.

Tropical Storm Bertha developed rapidly on Wednesday morning and it was still strengthening when it made landfall on the coast of South Carolina.  The center of Bertha officially made landfall east of Charleston near Mount Pleasant around midday on Wednesday.  NOAA buoy 41004 which is located southeast of Charleston measured a sustained wind speed of 40 m.p.h (65 km/h) and a gust of 58 m.p.h. (94 km/h).  NOAA buoy 41029 (Capers Nearshore) measured a surface pressure of 1005.8 mb when the center of Bertha passed near it.

A weather station at Shaw Air Force Base measured 2.00 inches (51 mm)  of rain.  A weather station in downtown Charleston, South Carolina measured 1.61 inches (41 mm).  Charlotte, North Carolina received 1.64 inches (42 mm), Greensboro received 1.09 inches (28 mm) and Winston Salem received 1.04 inches (26 mm).

Tropical Depression Bertha will move around the western end of a surface high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Bertha toward the north on Thursday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Bertha will move across western Virginia, West Virginia, eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania.  Bertha will drop rain over those areas on Thursday.  Locally heavy rain could cause flooding in some locations.