Tropical Low Prompts Warning for Queensland

Leave a reply

A Tropical Low over the Coral Sea prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Warning for the coast of Queensland on Thursday night.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 148.1°E which put the center about 210 miles (335 km) northeast of the Cairns, Australia.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast of Queensland from Port Douglas to Airlie Beach.  The Warning includes Cairns, Innisfail, Townsville and Bowen.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea was strengthening on Friday morning.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology was classifying the system as a Tropical Low.  The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center was designating the system as Invest 92P.

A Tropical Low over the Coral Sea was strengthening on Friday morning.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northwestern part of the Tropical Low.  Another cluster of thunderstorms was located southeast of the center of circulation.  Storms near the center began to generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the Tropical Low.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the thunderstorms northwest and southeast of the center of the Tropical Low.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The Tropical Low is very likely to intensify to a named tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is east of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the Tropical Low will approach the coast of Queensland near Townsville in 24 hours.

The Tropical Low is likely to be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it approaches the coast.  It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the portion of the coast between Port Douglas and Airlie Beach.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna Weakens

Leave a reply

Tropical Cyclone Jenna weakened on Wednesday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean southwest of the Cocos Islands.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jenna was located at latitude 18.6°S and longitude 90.9°E which put the center about 580 miles (940 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Jenna was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna weakened steadily on Wednesday as it moved southwest of the Cocos Islands.  The southwestern part of an upper level ridge produced strong northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Jenna’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The strong upper level winds also blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms that were part of Tropical Cyclone Jenna.

There were few thunderstorms left in Tropical Cyclone Jenna because of the strong vertical wind shear.  The bands revolving around the center of Jenna’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  There was little upper level divergence.  Mass was still converging in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the convergence of mass caused the surface pressure to increase.

The strong vertical wind shear also caused the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Jenna to become more asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern side of Jenna’s circulation.  Tropical storm force winds extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Jenna.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move through an environment very unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jenna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will continue to move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jenna’s circulation.  Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jenna will continue to weaken because of the strong vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jenna toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jenna will continue to move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna Moves Away From the Cocos Islands

Leave a reply

Tropical Cyclone Jenna moved farther away from the Cocos Islands on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jenna was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 93.9°E which put the center about 380 miles (615 km) southwest of the Cocos, Islands.  Jenna was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna strengthened as it moved away from the Cocos Islands on Tuesday.  A small eye was visible at the center of Jenna’s circulation earlier on Tuesday.  The eye was no longer visible in the most recent satellite images.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye earlier today and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Tropical Cyclone Jenna.  Storms near the core of Jenna generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jenna increased on Tuesday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Jenna’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Jenna.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the western side of Jenna’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jenna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jenna’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Tropical Cyclone Jenna will weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over the eastern part of the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jenna toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jenna will continue to move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Leave a reply

Tropical Cyclone Jenna rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jenna was located at latitude 14.8°S and longitude 95.8°E which put the center about 160 miles (260 km) south-southwest of the Cocos, Islands.  Jenna was moving toward the south-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology cancelled the Warning for the Cocos Islands when Tropical Cyclone Jenna moved away from the islands.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Jenna’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jenna.  Storms near the center of Jenna generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jenna was small.  The strongest winds were occurring in the northwestern quadrant of Jenna’s circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Cyclone Jenna.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Jenna’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jenna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and the will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jenna will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over the eastern part of the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jenna toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jenna will continue to move farther away from the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna Develops Near Cocos Islands

Leave a reply

Tropical Cyclone Jenna developed over the South Indian Ocean near the Cocos Islands on Sunday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jenna was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 96.9°E which put the center about 15 miles (25 km) east of the Cocos, Islands.  Jenna was moving toward the south-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the Cocos Islands.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean near the Cocos Islands strengthened on Sunday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Jenna.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jenna exhibited more organization early on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Jenna’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jenna.  Storms near the center of Jenna generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Jenna was relatively symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (235 km) from the center of Jenna’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Jenna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and the will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Jenna will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over the eastern part of the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Jenna toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jenna will move away from the Cocos Islands later today.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cocos Islands during the next few hours.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Grant was passing north of La Reunion.  At 7:00 a.m.EST Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 16.2°S and longitude 56.0°E which put the center about 325 miles (525 km) north of La Reunion,   Grant was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant Moves Northeast of Mauritius

Leave a reply

Tropical Cyclone Grant moved northeast of Mauritius on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 62.3°E which put the center about 480 miles (775 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Grant was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant weakened slightly earlier on Saturday.  However, more thunderstorms developed in Grant’s circulation on Saturday evening.  Numerous thunderstorms formed in the bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Grant.  New thunderstorms also started to develop in bands east of the center of Grant’s circulation.  Thunderstorms near the center of Grant began to generate more upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Grant will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Grant’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will be less than it has been during the past few days. Tropical Cyclone Grant could intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Grant toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Grant will pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion on Monday.  Grant could approach the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Grant Moves Northeast of Rodrigues

Leave a reply

Tropical Cyclone Grant moved northeast of Rodrigues over the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 66.4°E which put the center about 375 miles (605 km) north-northeast of Rodrigues.  Grant was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant was maintaining its intensity on Friday morning.  An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean continued to produce easterly winds that blew toward the top of Grant’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear was affecting the structure of Tropical Cyclone Grant.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the western half of Grant’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of Grant consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Grant still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was about the same as the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure remained nearly constant.

The vertical wind shear was also affecting the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Grant.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western side of Grant’s circulation.  The winds in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Grant were blowing at less that tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Grant will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Grant’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Grant is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian  Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Grant toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Grant will pass north of Rodrigues on Saturday.  Grant will pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion on Monday.  Tropical Cyclone Grant could approach the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Iggy weakened south-southeast of Christmas Island.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iggy was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 1086°E which put the center about 455 miles (735 km) south-southeast of Christmas Island.  Iggy was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant Weakens

Leave a reply

Tropical Cyclone Grant weakened as it moved over the South Indian Ocean northeast of Rodrigues on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 15.7°S and longitude 67.1°E which put the center about 370 miles (600 km) northeast of Rodrigues.  Grant was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant weakened rapidly on Thursday.  An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean produced easterly winds that blew toward the top of Grant’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The strong wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Grant to weaken rapidly.

The strong vertical wind shear also affected the structure of Tropical Cyclone Grant.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the western half of Grant’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of Grant consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Grant still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was much less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased rapidly on Thursday.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Grant was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Grant’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Grant will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Grant’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Grant is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Grant toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Grant will pass north of Rodrigues on Saturday.  Grant will pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion on Monday.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Iggy moved farther away from Christmas Island.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iggy was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 106.5°E which put the center about 425 miles (685 km) south-southeast of Christmas Island.  Iggy was moving toward the south-southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy Forms Southeast of Christmas Island

Leave a reply

Tropical Cyclone Iggy formed over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Christmas Island on Wednesday evening.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iggy was located at latitude 12.5°S and longitude 107.9°E which put the center about 200 miles (320 km) southeast of Christmas Island.  Iggy was moving toward the south-southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Diego Garcia strengthened on Wednesday evening and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Iggy.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Iggy on Wednesday evening.  Thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Iggy’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Iggy began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Iggy was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Iggy’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Iggy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is northwest of Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Iggy’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Iggy will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system that is northwest of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Iggy toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Iggy will move farther away from Christmas Island.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Grant weakened as it moved farther away from Diego Garcia.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 16.2°S and longitude 68.5°E which put the center about 670 miles (1080 km) south-southwest of Diego Garcia.  Grant was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant Passes South of Diego Garcia

Leave a reply

Tropical Cyclone Grant passed south of Diego Garcia on Tuesday night.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 69.2°E which put the center about 625 miles (1005 km) south-southwest of Diego Garcia.  Grant was moving toward the west at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant weakened as it passed south of Diego Garcia on Tuesday night.  An eye was no longer visible on satellite images of Grant.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Grant’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Grant generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was increasing.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Grant was still very small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Grant’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Grant was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.5.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Grant will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Grant’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Grant to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Grant toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Grant will move farther away from Diego Garcia.  Grant will pass north of Rodrigues in 48 hours.