Category Archives: Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Weakens West of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso weakened west of Madagascar on Wednesday night. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 20.4°S and longitude 42.6°E which put it about 110 miles (175 km) west-southwest of Morondava, Madagascar. Cheneso was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was nearly stationary over the Mozambique Channel west of Madagascar for 36 hours. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere mixed cooler water to the surface of the Mozambique Channel. Cheneso extracted less energy from the cooler water and it weakened slightly. A ring of thunderstorms around the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso weakened. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in the southern part of the ring around the center. Other bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Cheneso’s circulation. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

A surface high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean will move southeast during the next several days. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move around the northwestern side of the high pressure system during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Cheneso toward the southwest during the next day or so. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move parallel to the coast of southwestern Madagascar during the next 24 hours. Bands in the eastern side of Cheneso’s circulation will drop locally heavy rain over western Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move into an environment favorable for intensification after it moves southwest of the cooler water it mixed to the surface. Cheneso will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be under the axis of an upper level ridge that stretches from Madagascar westward across southern Africa. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Strengthens to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel west of Madagascar on Tuesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 43.0°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) west of Morondava, Madagascar. Cheneso was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel west of Madagascar on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around Cheneso’s circulation. A circular eye appeared to be developing at the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Cheneso. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will be in an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Cheneso will be over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be under the axis of an upper level ridge that stretches from Madagascar westward across southern Africa. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will intensify during the next 36 hours. Cheneso could intensify rapidly at times. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane in two or three days.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will be in a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. Cheneso could be nearly stationary during much of Wednesday. The northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Cheneso toward the southwest in 24 to 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will remain near the west coast of Madagascar during the next 24 hours. Bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern side of Cheneso’s circulation could continue to drop locally heavy rain over parts of the west coast of Madagascar. Heavy rain falling on saturated ground is likely to cause flooding in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Moves over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso moved over the Mozambique Channel on Monday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 42.5°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) west of Morondava, Madagascar. Cheneso was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso emerged over the Mozambique Channel after moving slowly toward the southwest across northern Madagascar during the past 4 days. Bands of thunderstorms were developing quickly over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of Cheneso’s circulation. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence again that pumped mass way from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Cheneso will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under an upper level ridge that stretches from the South Indian Ocean westward across southern Africa. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will intensify during the next 36 hours. Cheneso could intensify rapidly at times and it is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Cheneso slowly toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move gradually farther to the west of Madagascar. Bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern side of Cheneso’s circulation could continue to drop locally heavy rain over parts of the west coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Hits Northern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso hit northern Madagascar on Thursday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 49.5°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) west of Sambava, Madagascar. Cheneso was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso made landfall on the northern coast of Madagascar near Sambava early on Thursday. Cheneso strengthened prior to make landfall. It was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm at the time of landfall. The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. Cheneso was dropping heavy rain over parts of northern Madagascar on Thursday morning.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Cheneso toward the southwest during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move southwest over northern Madagascar. Cheneso will weaken gradually as it moves over Madagascar, but it will continue to drop heavy rain in some places. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso could move over the Mozambique Channel in a few days. There is a chance that Cheneso could strengthen when it gets over the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Develops East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso developed east of northern Madagascar on Wednesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 53.7°E which put it about 245 miles (390 km) east of Sambava, Madagascar. Cheneso was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar strengthened on Wednesday morning and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and northern sides of the center of Cheneso’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. Bands in the eastern half of Cheneso consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds, although there were also some thunderstorms in that side of the circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Cheneso will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near than 29˚C. It will move under the western end of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will strengthen during the next 18 hours and it could intensify rapidly.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Cheneso toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cheneso could reach landfall on the northern coast of Madagascar near Sambava in 18h ours. Cheneso will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Former Tropical Cyclone Ellie Meanders over Northwestern Australia

Former Tropical Cyclone Ellie was still meandering over northwestern Australia on Monday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of former Tropical Cyclone Ellie was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 127.1°E which put it about 320 miles (520 km) east of Broome, Australia. Ellie was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

The circulation of former Tropical Cyclone Ellie was still meandering over northwestern Australia more than ten days after it made landfall on the coast southwest of Darwin. The circulation around Ellie was still well organized. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Ellie’s circulation. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation were dropping heavy rain in some locations. A Major Flood Warning was in effect for the Fitzroy River. A Flood Warning was in effect for the West Kimberley District.

Former Tropical Cyclone Ellie will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Ellie slowly toward the west during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of former Tropical Cyclone Ellie could move back over water near Broome later this week. If the center moves over water, then Ellie will be in an environment favorable for intensification. Ellie will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be under the axis of an upper level ridge over northern Australia. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Ellie could strengthen back to a tropical cyclone if the center moves back over water later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Darian Weakens Southeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Darian weakened over the South Pacific Ocean southeast of Rodrigues on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Darian was located at latitude 26.6°S and longitude 69.9°E which put it about 635 miles (1025 km) southeast of Rodrigues. Darian was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A combination of cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and moderate vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Darian to weaken on Thursday night as it moved over the South Indian Ocean on Thursday night. Darian was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25˚C. An upper level trough east of Madagascar was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Darian’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear and cooler water were also affecting the structure of Tropical Cyclone Darian. Thunderstorms were occurring bands in the southeastern part of Darian’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Darian consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. There was still a large circulation around Darian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move through an environment unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next few days. Darian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder than 25˚C. The upper level trough east of Madagascar will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. Cooler water and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Darian to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next few days. Darian could maintain its intensity while it goes the through the transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough east of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Darian toward the south during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Darian will move farther away from Rodrigues, Mauritius and La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Darian Weakens over South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Darian weakened over the South Indian Ocean on Tuesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Darian was located at latitude 19.9°S and longitude 78.5°E which put it about 965 miles (1560 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Darian was moving toward the southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Darian weakened to the equivalent of a tropical storm when it moved over cooler water in the South Indian Ocean on Tuesday night. Thunderstorms did not grow as high into the atmosphere after Darian moved over cooler water. Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Darian’s circulation on Tuesday night. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move through an environment unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next few days. Darian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder than 25˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Darian’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. A combination of colder water and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Darian to continue to weaken during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Darian toward the southwest during the next 36 hours. On it anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Darian will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia in 24 hours. Darian could be southeast of Rodrigues in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Darian Strengthens Back to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Darian strengthened back to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Diego Garcia on Monday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Darian was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 84.5°E which put it about 1060 miles (1710 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Darian was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

After completing several eyewall replacement cycles during the past 36 hours, Tropical Cyclone Darian strengthened back to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean far to the southeast of Diego Garcia. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Darian’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Darian. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The completed eyewall replacements cycles increased the size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Darian. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Darian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (305 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Darian was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.0.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move through an environment favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Darian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the core of Tropical Cyclone Darian, then another eyewall replacement cycle could begin. A new eyewall replacement cycle would cause Darian to weaken again. Tropical Cyclone Darian will move over cooler water later this week, which is likely to cause a steadier weakening trend.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Darian toward the southwest during the next few days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Darian will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia. Darian could be southeast of Rodrigues in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Darian Spins over South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Darian was spinning over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Darian was located at latitude 14.8°S and longitude 84.8°E which put it about 970 miles (1565 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Darian was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Darian weakened as it spun over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday night. A break developed in the northeastern part of the ring of thunderstorms around the center of Darian’s circulation. The distribution of thunderstorms also became asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Darian. Bands in the eastern half of Darian consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Darian was still well organized. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Darian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Darian was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.0.

Tropical Cyclone Darian will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Darian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge centered west of Australia. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Darian’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear may already be contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The wind shear is likely to be strong enough to cause Tropical Cyclone Darian to weaken during the next 24hours.

The upper level ridge west of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Darian toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Darian will move farther away from Diego Garcia.