Category Archives: Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim Stalls and Drops Heavy Rain on Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim stalled over Madagascar on Friday night and it was dropping heavy rain on northern Madagascar.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 49.5°E which put it about 300 miles (480 km) northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar.  Eliakim was stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The strongest winds were occurring in rainbands over the Indian Ocean.  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The steering currents weakened on Friday as Tropical Cyclone Eliakim was rounding the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Indian Ocean.  Eliakim has moved little during the past 12 hours.  The center of circulation was over land close to the east coast of Madagascar near Mananara.  Since Tropical Cyclone Eliakim was nearly stationary, bands of showers and thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain on parts of Madagascar.  The heavy rain was creating the potential for serious flooding, especially in areas of steep terrain.

The subtropical ridge is forecast to strengthen during the weekend.  When the ridge strengthens the steering currents will start to move Tropical Cyclone Eliakim toward the south.  On its anticipated track Eliakim is forecast to move almost straight southward near the east coast of Madagascar.  Tropical Cyclone Eliakim will drop heavy rain on parts of Madagascar for several more days and it could cause very serious flooding in some places.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus Brings Wind and Rain to Darwin

Tropical Cyclone Marcus brought wind and rain to Darwin, Australia on Friday night.  A weather station at Darwin Harbor recorded a wind gust to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 130.7°E which put it about 20 miles (30 km) southwest of Darwin, Australia.  Marcus was moving toward the southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from Cape Hotham to Mitchell Plateau including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.  A Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Cockatoo Island to Mitchell Plateau.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus intensified as it approached Darwin.  An eye developed at the center of circulation and a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms around the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping away mass from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus will move through an area favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Marcus will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge over Australia is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are creating some vertical wind shear, but the shear is not strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Marcus could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it moves over the Timor Sea on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus was being steered toward the southwest by the ridge over Australia and the southwesterly motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated path the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus will move across the Timor Sea on Saturday.  Marcus could approach the north coast of Western Australia east of Kalumburu in about 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim Makes Landfall on Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim made landfall on the east coast of Madagascar on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 50.6°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) south of Ambohitralanana, Madagascar.  Eliakim was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim continued to strengthen as it approached Madagascar.  A nearly complete eyewall wrapped around a large circular eye.  The eyewall was weakest south of the center of circulation.  Several bands of showers an thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim will gradually weaken after the center of circulation moves over eastern Madagascar.  Eliakim will bring gusty winds, but locally heavy rain will be the major threat.  Tropical Cyclone Eliakim is rounding the western end of a subtropical ridge and it will start moving toward the south within 12 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Elaikim will move over eastern Madagascar and it will stay east of Antananarivo.  The heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in the steep terrain in eastern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus Strengthens North of Australia

A Tropical Low north of Australia strengthened on Thursday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Marcus.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus was located at latitude 10.3°S and longitude 132.6°E which put it about 190 miles (320 km) northeast of Darwin, Australia.  Marcus was moving toward the southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology had issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from Maningrida to Daly River Mouth including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.  A watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Daly River Mouth to the Mitchell Plateau.

The circulation inside a Tropical Low north of Australia became better organized on Thursday which led the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to designate the system as Tropical Cyclone Marcus.  A primary band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western and northern sides of the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and storms were developing in other parts of the circulation.  Storms near the core of Marcus were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus will be moving through an environment mostly favorable for intensification.  Marcus will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It is moving in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  The only factor that could inhibit intensification is the proximity of Tropical Cyclone Marcus to the northern coast of Australia.  If the center of Marcus remains north of the coast, then the tropical cyclone is likely to intensify.  If the center moves over land, then a slow weakening would occur.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus is currently moving toward the southeast, but a subtropical ridge over Australia will turn Marcus toward the southwest when it approaches the coast.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Marcus will approach the northern coast of Australia in about 24 hours.  It is likely to move across the Cobourg Peninsula and over the Van Diemen Gulf.  Tropical Cyclone Marcus could be near Darwin in about 36 hours.  Marcus is forecast to continue southwest over the Timor Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northernmost portions of the Northern Territory of Australia.  The center will pass close to Darwin and it could bring gusty winds and drop heavy rain over that city.

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim Strengthens East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim strengthened east of Madagascar on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 52.6°E which put it about 140 miles (225 km) east of Ambohitralanana, Madagascar.  Eliakim was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (96 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim became better organized on Thursday morning.  A partial eyewall surrounded the northern and eastern sides of the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim.  Storms near the core were generating well developed upper level divergence which was pumping mass away in all directions from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 to 24 hours.  Eliakim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It is under an upper level ridge and the upper level winds are weak.  So, there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Eliakim will continue to intensify until it reaches the coast of Madagascar in a day or so.  Eliakim is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim is moving around the western portion of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west-southwest.  A general motion toward the west-southwest is expected to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim could be near the coast of Madagascar south of Ambohitralanana in 18 to 24 hours.  Eliakim will bring gusty winds and it will drop locally heavy rain over Madagascar.  The heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some areas.

Tropical Low Forms North of Australia

A Tropical Low formed north of Australia late on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of the Tropical Low as located at latitude 9.2°S and longitude 130.9°E which put it about 155 miles (250 km) north of Milikapiti, Australia.  It was moving toward the east at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (45 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the portion of the coast from Milingimbi to Daly River Mouth including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

A center of circulation developed in an area of showers and thunderstorms north of Australia late on Wednesday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology classified the system as a Tropical Low.  The circulation was still organizing.  A short band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center.  Other short rainbands were developing in other parts of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation were just beginning to generate upper level divergence.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification.  It will mover over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Westerly winds in the upper levels will cause some vertical wind shear, which will inhibit intensification.  However, the shear is not likely to be strong enough to prevent intensification.  The Tropical Low is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.  After that time the intensity will be influenced by how much of the circulation is over Australia.

The Tropical Low is being steered to the east by westerly winds north of Australia.  Those winds are forecast to weaken and the Tropical Low is expected to turn south toward the coast of Australia.  A subtropical ridge over Australia is expected to turn the Tropical Low toward the southwest in a day or so.  On its anticipated track the Tropical Low could be near the northern coast of Australia in 24 to 36 hours.  It could pass near the Cobourg Peninsula, Melville Island and Bathurst Island.  The Tropical Low could also bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the area near Darwin.

Tropical Cyclone 14S Develops East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone 14S developed east of Madagascar on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 14S was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 54.6°E which put it about 280 miles (455 km) east-northeast of Ambohitralanana, Madagascar.  It was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A distinct center of circulation developed within a large area of showers and thunderstorms east of Madagascar on Wednesday.  A primary rainband wrapped around the southern, western and northern sides of the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms formed primarily south and west of the center of circulation.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone 14S will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Tropical Cyclone 14S is under an upper level ridge and the vertical wind shear is not too strong.  Tropical Cyclone 14S will continue to intensify and it could become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon before it reaches Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone 14S is moving near the northwestern portion of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  The ridge is forecast to strengthen and a general motion toward the west-southwest is expected.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 14S could be near the east coast of Madagascar near Ambohitralanana in 24 to 36 hours.  It could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at that time.  Tropical Cyclone 14S will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Madagascar.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile Drops Heavy Rain on La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile dropped heavy rain on La Reunion on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dumazile was located at latitude 23.3°S and longitude 52.5°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) southwest of St. Denis, La Reunion.  Dumazile was moving toward the south-southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile strengthened into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday.  It was a large, powerful tropical cyclone.  There was a small circular eye at the center of the circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several rainbands were revolving around the core of the circulation.  The storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 250 miles (400 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dumazile was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 30.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 50.9.  Those indices indicate that Tropical Cyclone Dumazile would be capable of causing extensive major damage if it made landfall.

Although the core of Tropical Cyclone Dumazile passed between Madagascar and La Reunion, the circulation was so large that rainbands on the eastern side of Dumazile passed over La Reunion.  Those rainbands dropped locally heavy rain and there were unconfirmed reports of flooding in parts of La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile has likely reached its peak intensity.  Dumazile is currently moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C, but the tropical cyclone will move over colder water when it moves farther south.  An upper level trough near southern Africa is producing northwesterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are generating vertical wind shear and the shear is forecast to increase during the next several days.  The colder water and increased wind shear are forecast to weaken Tropical Cyclone Dumazile during the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile has rounded the western end of a subtropical ridge and it is now moving toward the south-southeast.  A general southeastward motion is forecast for the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Dumazile should move away from Madagascar and La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile Passes Between Madagascar and La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile passed between Madagascar and La Reunion on Sunday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dumazile was located at latitude 20.7°S and longitude 51.1°E which put it about 280 miles (450 km) west of St. Denis, La Reunion.  Dumazile was moving toward the south-southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Dumazile is a very well organized tropical cyclone. The circulation is symmetrical and there is a small circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms in the core are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 230 miles (370 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile will move through an environment favorable for intensification for about another 24 hours.  Dumazile will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Dumazile could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday.  When Dumazile moves farther south in a day or so, it will move over cooler water and into an area where the upper level winds are stronger.  Cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Dumazile to weaken when that happens.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile has rounded the western end of a subtropical ridge and it is now moving toward the south-southeast.  A general southeasterly motion is expected during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Dumazile will move away from Madagascar.  Dumazile is forecast to pass southwest of La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile Brings Wind and Rain to Eastern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile brought wind and rain to eastern Madagascar on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dumazile was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 51.5°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) east of Ambodifotatra, Madagascar.  Dumazile was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile intensified rapidly into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday.  Satellite images suggested that an eye was forming at the center of circulation.  The developing eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms in the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dumazile will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will continue to move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Dumazile is likely to continue to intensify rapidly on Sunday and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile is moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  Dumazile is likely to move more toward the south as it moves around the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Dumazile is forecast to pass east of the coast of Madagascar.  However, rainbands on the western side of the circulation will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of eastern Madagascar.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.