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Hurricane Dorian Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 4

Hurricane Dorian rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday night and Hurricane Warnings were issued for the Northwestern Bahamas.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 25.5°N and longitude 71.4°W which put it about 545 miles (880 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida,  Dorian was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were issued for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Andros Island.

When reconnaissance aircraft reached the core of Hurricane Dorian on Friday night they discovered that Dorian has intensified rapidly since Friday afternoon.  The minimum surface pressure had decreased by more than 20 mb and the maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  Dorian was a very symmetrical, if small hurricane.  There was a circular eye with a diameter to 14 miles (22 km) at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Dorian.  Storms around the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Dorian was still relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 110 miles (170 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Dorian was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.3.  Hurricane Dorian was capable of causing regional significant damage.

Hurricane Dorian will remain in an environment favorable for strong hurricanes for several more days.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.   It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Dorian could intensify to Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At some point a rainband will wrap around the existing eye and eyewall.  That will begin an eyewall replacement cycle that will weaken Hurricane Dorian, at least temporarily.

Hurricane Dorian will move south of a subtropical ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Dorian toward the west during the next 48 to 72 hours.  Dorian will move much more slowly when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Dorian could reach the Northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.  Dorian could approach the southeast coast of Florida on Tuesday.

Dorian Strengthens to Major Hurricane

Hurricane Dorian strengthened to a major hurricane on Friday afternoon.  Data from a reconnaissance plane indicated that Hurricane Dorian had strengthened to Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday afternoon, which meant it was a major hurricane.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 24.8°N and longitude 70.3°W which put it about 625 miles (1005 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida.  Dorian was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Hurricane Watches had been issued for the Northwestern Bahamas.

The circulation around Hurricane Dorian exhibited much more impressive organization on satellite images and radar products generated by reconnaissance aircraft.  Clouds cleared out of the eye and it became even more circular.  The diameter of the eye was 21 miles (34 km).  The eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The overall appearance of Hurricane Dorian was more symmetrical.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms around the core generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Dorian was still small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 25 miles from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Dorian was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Index (HWISI) was 29.6.  Hurricane Dorian was already capable of causing major damage.

Hurricane Dorian will move through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Dorian could start a period of rapid intensification at any time.  Dorian will almost certainly intensify to Category 4 and there is the potential for it to strengthen to Category 5.  After Hurricane Dorian strengthens, eyewall replacement cycles could cause fluctuations in intensity.

A ridge of high pressure north of Hurricane Dorian is starting to turn Dorian more toward the west.  The high is forecast to steer Dorian toward the west during the next two to three days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Dorian will be near the Northwestern Bahamas on Sunday and it will approach the southeast coast of Florida on Monday.  Dorian will reach the western end of the high when it gets close to the Florida coast.  Hurricane Dorian could slow down and turn northward on Tuesday.

Hurricane Dorian Strengthens East of the Bahamas

Hurricane Dorian resumed strengthening east of the Bahamas on Thursday night after exhibiting little change of intensity during much of the day.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 23.3°N and longitude 68.4°W which put it about 580 miles (930 km) east of the Northwestern Bahamas.  Dorian was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

The structure of Hurricane Dorian exhibited little change for much of Thursday.  Storms around the core of Dorian grew stronger on Thursday evening.  An eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) developed at the center of circulation.  A nearly complete ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Dorian.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to start decreasing again.  The circulation around Dorian was still relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Hurricane Dorian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Dorian is likely to intensify to major hurricane status on Friday.  There is the potential for Dorian to strengthen to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during the weekend.  When Hurricane Dorian becomes a major hurricane, eyewall replacement cycles could cause fluctuations in its intensity.

A ridge of high pressure will build north of Hurricane Dorian on Friday.  The high will block Dorian from moving toward the north and it will turn the hurricane toward the west.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Dorian could approach the Northwestern Bahamas on Sunday and the east coast of Florida on Monday.  Dorian is likely to be a small, but very dangerous hurricane.

Hurricane Dorian Strengthens North of Puerto Rico

Hurricane Dorian strengthened north of Puerto Rico on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Dorian was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 66.0°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) north of San Juan, Puerto Rico.  Dorian was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 110 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

The circulation around Hurricane Dorian strengthened steadily on Wednesday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) formed at the center of circulation.  A closed ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of that ring.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Dorian.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north and northeast of the hurricane.  The circulation around Hurricane Dorian remained fairly small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 20 miles (30 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Dorian.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 70 miles from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Dorian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move into an area where the upper level winds are relatively weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Dorian is very likely to intensify during the next 48 hours and it could intensify rapidly at times.  Dorian is likely to strengthen into a major hurricane.

An upper level low near the Bahamas will pull Hurricane Dorian toward the northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours.  A strong ridge of high pressure will build north of Dorian on Friday.  The high will block Dorian from moving north and it will turn it toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Dorian could be near the northern Bahamas on Saturday night.  Dorian could approach the east coast of Florida by later on Sunday.  Dorian is likely to be a major hurricane when it approaches Florida.

Tropical Storm Dorian Strengthens, Hurricane Warnings for Virgin Islands

Tropical Storm Dorian strengthened on Wednesday morning and it was on the verge of becoming a hurricane.  Hurricane Warnings were issued for Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 64.5°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) south of St. Croix.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the British Virgin Islands.  A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch was in effect for Puerto Rico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian exhibited much greater organization on Wednesday morning.  A ring of strong thunderstorms wrapped almost completely around the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dorian.  Storms near near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north and northeast of the tropical storm.  The circulation also increased in size on Wednesday morning.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move northeast of an upper level low during the next 24 hours.  The low will produce some southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation, but the winds will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  The wind shear will decrease on Friday and Dorian could strengthen into a major hurricane near the Bahamas.

The upper level low will help to steer Tropical Storm Dorian toward the northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours.  A ridge of high pressure will build north of Dorian on Friday.  The ridge will block Dorian from moving north and it will steer Dorian toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dorian will pass over the Virgin Islands near the eastern end of Puerto Rico today.  Dorian will be near the northern Bahamas on Saturday and it could approach the east coast of Florida by Sunday night.  Dorian could be a major hurricane when it approaches the east coast of the U.S.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, former Tropical Storm Erin weakened to a tropical depression.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Erin was located at latitude 33.6°N and longitude 72.8°W which put it about 190 miles (305 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Erin was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Dorian Moves Toward Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Dorian moved toward Puerto Rico on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 63.0°W which put it about 275 miles (440 km) east-southeast of Ponce, Puerto Rico.  Dorian was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for Puerto Rico.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.  A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata.

The original low level center of Tropical Storm Dorian passed south of Barbados and St. Lucia on Tuesday morning.  Dorian dropped heavy rain and there were reports of flash floods on Martinique.  The original center weakened on Tuesday afternoon and a new low level center formed about 60 miles farther to the north.  The formation of a new center of circulation caused the forecast future track of Tropical Storm Dorian to be shifted northward as well.

Even with the formation of a new center of circulation, the overall circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian did not change much on Tuesday.  The circulation around Dorian remained small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounded the new low level center.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving the center of Tropical Storm Dorian.  Storms near the center were producing upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Dorian will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  Dorian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level low northwest of Puerto Rico will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, which will inhibit intensification.  A large mass of drier air is north of Tropical Storm Dorian and the drier air could also inhibit intensification if it gets pulled into the circulation around Dorian.  The small size of the circulation around Tropical Storm Dorian means that it could weaken or strengthen quickly if the environmental conditions change significantly.  Dorian is likely to weaken when it crosses Puerto Rico on Wednesday night.

The upper low northwest of Puerto Rico will help to steer Tropical Storm Dorian toward the northwest on Wednesday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Dorian could reach Puerto Rico by Wednesday evening.  Dorian will bring gusty winds and it will drop locally heavy rain on Puerto Rico.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  A high pressure system will build north of Tropical Storm Dorian on Thursday and Friday.  The high will turn Dorian back toward the west-northwest.  Dorian could approach the east coast of Florida on Sunday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Six strengthened into Tropical Storm Erin southeast of Cape Hatteras on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located at latitude 31.9°N and longitude 72.1°W which put it about 300 miles (485 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Erin was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.  Tropical Storm Erin is forecast to move northeast toward Nova Scotia.

Tropical Depression Three Forms East of Florida

Tropical Depression Three formed east of Florida on Monday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of a small low pressure system over the Northwestern Bahamas on Monday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the system as Tropical Depression Three.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Three was located at latitude 25.6°N and longitude 78.6°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida.  The depression was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb.

More thunderstorms developed around the center of a small low pressure system that was embedded in the northern end of a tropical wave over the Bahamas on Monday.  Most of the thunderstorms were forming in bands on the eastern side of the circulation.  Based on data from satellites NHC determined that a closed circulation had formed at the surface.  There were fewer thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation.  Storms in the eastern half of the depression were exhibiting upper level divergence to the north and east.

Tropical Depression Three will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will be in under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge could enhance upper level divergence on Tuesday.  The wind aloft will be relatively weak, although a thin upper trough near the east coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  The surface pressure is relatively high and that could slow any intensification.  A larger upper level trough will develop over the eastern U.S. on Tuesday and the trough will produce stronger southwesterly winds.  Those winds will create much more shear on Wednesday.

Tropical Depression Three will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the northwest during the next 12 hours.  Tropical Depression Three is likely to more more toward the north later on Tuesday when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Three could be near the southeast coast of Florida in about 12 hours.  The center is not currently forecast to make landfall, but the depression could bring squally weather and an increased chance for rain to the southeast coast of the U.S. during the next several days.

Tropical Storm Barry Brings Wind and Water to Central Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Barry brought wind and water to the central Gulf Coast on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located at latitude 31.0°N and longitude 93.0°W which put it about 35 miles (55 km) southwest of Alexandria, Louisiana.  Barry was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were still in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle to Cameron, Louisiana, and for New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  Several weather stations on the coast of Louisiana were still reporting sustained winds to tropical storm force on Saturday night.

Tropical Storm Barry strengthened into a hurricane prior to making landfall near Intracoastal City, Louisiana on Saturday afternoon.  Then an upper level ridge centered over Texas strengthened after Barry became a hurricane.  The ridge produced north-northeasterly winds at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) which blew over the top of former Hurricane Barry.  Those winds created strong vertical wind shear and they blew the top of the circulation south of the lower part of the circulation.  By Saturday night the lower level circulation was over southwestern Louisiana and the top of the circulation was over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Since the lower part of the circulation did not extend as high in the atmosphere, rain near the center of Tropical Storm Barry was relatively light.  Heavier rain fell in bands on the eastern side of Barry.  Heavy rain caused localized flooding in the area around Mobile, Alabama and along the coast of Mississippi.

Tropical Storm Barry did cause minor wind damage over portions of southern Louisiana.  There were reports of downed trees and widespread power outages.  The wind pushed water toward the coast in the eastern half of the circulation and Barry generated a storm surge of 6 feet (2 meters) in several locations.  There was also a rise in the water level along the northern shore of Lake Pontchartrain.

Tropical Storm Barry is forecast to move northward over western Louisiana on Sunday.  The water level along the coast should gradually decrease while Barry moves farther inland and weakens.  Rainfall could increase in bands in the eastern side of the circulation on Sunday where the wind will transport moist air from the Gulf of Mexico over Louisiana and Mississippi.  Flash Flood Watches continue for parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama.

Tropical Storm Barry Strengthens South of Louisiana

Tropical Storm Barry strengthened south of Louisiana on Friday morning.  Hurricane Hunters flying into Barry found that the maximum sustained wind speed had increased to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located at latitude 28.2°N and longitude 90.4°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) south-southeast of Morgan City, Louisiana.  Barry was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City to Grand Isle, Louisiana. Hurricane Watches have been issued for the portions of the coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle, Louisiana and from Intracoastal City to Cameron, Louisiana. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the portions of the coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle, Louisiana and from Intracoastal City to Cameron, Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and New Orleans.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Barry exhibited greater organization on Friday morning.  Thunderstorms developed in a band around the southern side of the center of circulation.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands that stretched around the western, southern and eastern sides of the circulation.  Bands in the northern portion of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds, although there were some thunderstorms in the parts of those bands over land.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 170 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.  Storms just south of the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west of Tropical Storm Barry.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease and it was down to 998 mb on Friday morning.

Tropical Storm Barry will move through an environment that is some what favorable for intensification.  Barry will move south of a narrow upper level ridge that stretches from east Texas to south Alabama.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear is one of the reasons why there are fewer thunderstorms in the northern part of the circulation.  Reconnaissance aircraft reported that the middle level center was a little to the south of the surface center.  The tilt of the circulation with height is also the result of the vertical wind shear.  However, the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Barry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30.5°C.  It will extract a lot of energy from the Gulf of Mexico.  Tropical Storm Barry is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Barry is moving around the southwestern part of a ridge of high pressure over the southeastern U.S.  The ridge will steer Barry slowly toward the west-northwest during the next few hours.  Barry will turn more toward the northwest later on Friday.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Barry will approach the coast of Louisiana late Friday night.  Barry is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast.  The broad circulation will cause mostly minor wind damage over a large area.  There could be widespread power outages.  Barry will also generate a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters near where the center makes landfall.  Tropical Storm Barry will drop heavy rain when it moves slowly inland.  Flooding is a serious risk, since soils are nearly saturated and many creeks and rivers are already high.

Tropical Storm Barry Threatens Louisiana

Tropical Storm Barry threatened Louisiana on Thursday.  A low pressure system formerly designated at Potential Tropical Cyclone Two strengthened into Tropical Storm Barry on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located at latitude 27.8°N and longitude 88.7°W which put it about 95 miles (150 km) south-southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River and about 200 miles (320 km) southeast of Morgan City, Louisiana.  Barry was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border.  A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and New Orleans.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Barry exhibited more organization on Thursday morning, but there were not a lot of thunderstorms near the center of circulation.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands wrapping around the western and southern sides of the circulation.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force were occurring in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Barry.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center in that quadrant of Barry.  The winds were weaker in other quadrants of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Barry will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Barry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Barry will intensify slowly until more thunderstorms form near the center of circulation.  If thunderstorms consolidate around an inner core, then rapid intensification would be possible.  Tropical Storm Barry is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical Storm Barry will move around the southwestern part of a ridge of high pressure over the southeastern U.S.  The ridge is likely to steer Barry slowly toward the west during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Tropical Storm Barry will move more toward the northwest when it moves around the southwestern part of the ridge.  There is still some uncertainty about the timing and location of the turn toward the northwest.  Based on its anticipated track Tropical Storm Barry could approach the coast of Louisiana on Friday night.

Tropical Storm Barry is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane before it makes landfall.  It will bring strong, gusty winds to coastal regions of Louisiana.  Those winds will also push a storm surge toward the coast.  The storm surge could be up to 6 to 8 feet (2 to 3 meters) near where the center makes landfall.  Tropical Storm Barry could drop heavy rain when it moves inland.  Many rivers and streams are already high and locally heavy rain could cause flooding in those locations.