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Tropical Storm Harold Brings Wind and Rain to South Texas

Tropical Storm Harold brought wind and rain to South Texas on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Harold was located at latitude 27.1°N and longitude 97.4°W which put it about 35 miles (55 km) north of Port Mansfield, Texas. Harold was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Harold was located at latitude 26.2°N and longitude 96.4°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east-southeast of Port Mansfield, Texas. Harold was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande, River. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor to Sargent, Texas.

Tropical Storm Harold strengthened a little before it made landfall on Padre Island. The distribution of thunderstorms in Harold was asymmetrical. There were more thunderstorms in the bands in the northern side of Harold’s circulation than there were in the bands in the southern half of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Harold’s circulation.

Bands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Harold were dropping heavy rain over parts of South Texas. Flash Flood Warnings were in effect for eastern Duval County, Jim Wells County, western Kleberg County, south central Live Oak County, northwestern Nueces County, and southwestern San Patricio County.

The bands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Harold were also producing winds to tropical storm force. The National Weather Service Office in Corpus Christi (KCRP) reported a sustained wind speed of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 62 m.p.h. (100 km/h).

Tropical Storm Harold will move inland quickly over South Texas. Harold will weaken as it move farther inland, but Tropical Storm Harold will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of South Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley during the next few hours.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Franklin was over the Caribbean Sea and Tropical Depression Gert weakened east of the Leeward Islands.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 71.1°W which put it about 220 miles (355 km) south-southwest of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Franklin was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Gert was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 59.7°W which put it about 230 miles (370 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Gert was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Harold Approaches South Texas

Tropical Storm Harold was approaching the coast of South Texas on Tuesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Harold was located at latitude 26.2°N and longitude 96.4°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east-southeast of Port Mansfield, Texas. Harold was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande, River. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor to Sargent, Texas.

Former Tropical Depression Nine strengthened during Monday night and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Harold. There was a large circulation around Tropical Storm Harold, but the surface center of circulation was elongated. The distribution of thunderstorms in Harold was asymmetrical. There were more thunderstorms in the bands in the northern side of the low pressure system than there were in the bands in the southern half of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Harold’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Harold will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Harold will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the central U.S. There is also an upper level low over northern Mexico. The upper level ridge and the upper level low will interact to produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Harold’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Harold could intensify a little during the next few hours in spite of the vertical wind shear.

The upper level ridge over the central U.S. will steer Tropical Storm Harold toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Harold will reach the coast of South Texas in a few hours. Tropical Storm Harold will reach South Texas in a few hours. Harold will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to South Texas. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. The low pressure system could also cause a storm surge of up to five feet (1.5 meters) along the coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Franklin was over the Caribbean Sea and Tropical Depression Gert was east of the Leeward Islands.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 70.7°W which put it about 260 miles (420 km) south of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Franklin was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Gert was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 58.8°W which put it about 290 miles (470 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Gert was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Gulf System Prompts Tropical Storm Warning for South Texas

The potential risk posed by a low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for South Texas. The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the low pressure system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located at latitude 25.0°N and longitude 89.9°W which put it about 480 miles (770 km) east-southeast of Port Mansfield, Texas. The low pressure system was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande, River. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor to Sargent, Texas.

There was a large circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, but there was not a well defined surface center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving counterclockwise in the large low pressure system. There were more thunderstorms in the bands in the northern side of the low pressure system than there were in the bands in the southern half of the circulation.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the central U.S. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow form the east. So, there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear over much of the lower pressure system. An upper level low over northern Mexico will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the southwestern part of the low pressure system. There will be more vertical wind shear in that region. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is likely to intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

The upper level ridge will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the low pressure system will reach the coast of South Texas on Tuesday morning. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will likely be a tropical storm when it reaches South Texas. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to South Texas. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. The low pressure system could also cause a storm surge of up to five feet (1.5 meters) along the coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Franklin was over the Caribbean Sea, Tropical Storm Gert was east of the Leeward Islands and former Tropical Storm Emily weakened to a tropical depression over the central Atlantic Ocean.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 70.1°W which put it about 240 miles (390 km) south of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Franklin was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to the border with Haiti.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Gert was located at latitude 16.9°N and longitude 57.0°W which put it about 410 miles (665 km) east-southeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. Gert was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Emily was located at latitude 21.1°N and longitude 41.6°W which put it about 1225 miles (1965 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Emily was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Franklin Forms over the Eastern Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Franklin formed over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 67.8°W which put it about 240 miles (385 km) south-southeast of Isla Saona, Dominican Republic. Franklin was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to the border with Haiti.

A low pressure system in a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea strengthened on Sunday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Franklin. A NOAA research aircraft and and visible satellite images indicated that there was a well defined low level center of circulation in Tropical Storm Franklin. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Franklin’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern half of Franklin’s circulation. The winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Franklin will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Franklin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Franklin’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will probably not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Franklin is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Franklin will move south of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Franklin toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. An upper level low near Cuba will steer Franklin toward the north on Tuesday. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Franklin will approach Hispaniola on Tuesday morning. Franklin is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Emily churned west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and Tropical Depression Six moved toward the Northern Leeward Islands. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Emily was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 39.4°W which put it about 1050 miles (1690 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Emily was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Six was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 54.7°W which put it about 565 miles (910 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Emily Forms Southwest of the Azores

Tropical Storm Emily formed over the Atlantic Ocean southwest of the Azores on Sunday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Emily was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 38.8°W which put it about 1000 miles (1615 km) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Emily was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean southwest of the Azores strengthened on Sunday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Emily. A distinct low level center of circulation was visible on satellite images. However, the distribution of thunderstorms In Tropical Storm Emily was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern part of Emily’s circulation. Bands near the center of Emily and in the southern part of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) in the northern side of Emily’s circulation. Winds in the southern half of Emily consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Storm Emily was moving under the eastern part of an upper level low over the Atlantic Ocean. The upper level low was producing strong southerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Emily’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Emily will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Emily will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. However, the upper level low over the Atlantic Ocean will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear is likely to cause Emily to weaken during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Emily will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Emily toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Emily will move toward the central Atlantic Ocean.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Six continued to move toward the Northern Leeward Islands. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Six was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 53.7°W which put it about 625 miles (1010 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Depression Six Forms over the Atlantic

Tropical Depression Six formed over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Northern Leeward Islands on Saturday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Six was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 50.2°W which put it about 855 miles (1375 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A small area of low pressure over the Atlantic Ocean strengthened on Saturday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Six. A distinct low level center of circulation was evident on visible satellite images of Tropical Depression Six. However, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of the tropical depression. Bands in the western side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level low east of Bermuda was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Depression Six. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Depression Six will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level low east of Bermuda will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. In addition, Tropical Depression Six will move into a region where there is drier air. The strong vertical wind shear and the drier air are likely to prevent Tropical Depression Six from intensifying to a tropical storm. The tropical depression could actually dissipate by early next week.

Tropical Depression Six will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west. On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Six will move toward the Northern Leeward Islands.

Hurricane Earl Speeds Northeast

Hurricane Earl sped toward the east over the North Atlantic Ocean south of Newfoundland on Saturday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Earl was located at latitude 41.2°N and longitude 53.5°W which put it about 380 miles (610 km) south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Earl was moving toward the northeast at 35 m.p.h. (56 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Hurricane Earl was making a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Saturday morning. An upper level trough over eastern Canada was producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Earl’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear was causing the eyewall around the eye at the center of Hurricane Earl to become fragmented. The eyewall was broken on the southwestern side of the eye. There were still thunderstorms in the northeastern remnant of the eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms in the northeastern part of Earl’s circulation revolved around the center of Earl. Bands in the southwestern part of Hurricane Earl consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Hurricane Earl was almost as large as Hurricane Sandy was in 2012. Winds to hurricane force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Earl’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 415 miles (675 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 32.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 50.2.

Hurricane Earl will complete the transition to a strong extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Earl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder than 26˚C. The trough over eastern Canada will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The colder water and strong vertical wind shear will cause Earl’s structure to compete the transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The westerly winds in the middle latitudes will steer the extratropical cyclone toward the east during the next few days. The extratropical cyclone will weaken gradually over the North Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland during the next week.

Tropical Storm Earl Prompts Watch for Bermuda

A potential risk posed by Tropical Storm Earl prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda on Tuesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located at latitude 24.1°N and longitude 65.8°W which put it about 570 miles (915 km) south of Bermuda. Earl was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Earl was close to strengthening to a hurricane on Tuesday afternoon. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern half of the center of circulation. An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Earl’s circulation. Bands of thunderstorms were located in the eastern and northern parts of Tropical Storm Earl. Bands in the southern and western parts of the circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Earl.

Tropical Storm Earl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Earl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level low southwest of Bermuda will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Earl’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Earl could continue to intensify slowly. The upper level winds are forecast to weaken later on Wednesday, and Earl is likely to intensify to a major hurricane after that happens.

Tropical Storm Earl will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Earl toward the north during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Earl will approach Bermuda on Thursday afternoon. Earl will be a hurricane when it approaches Bermuda.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Danielle was moving toward the east-northeast west of the Azores. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Danielle was located at latitude 42.5°N and longitude 40.3°W which put it about 765 miles (1230 km) west-northwest of the Azores. Danielle was moving toward the east-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Storm Earl Intensifies North of the Virgin Islands

Tropical Storm Earl intensified north of the Virgin Islands on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 65.3°W which put it about 215 miles (345 km) north-northwest of St. Thomas. Earl was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane found that Tropical Storm Earl had intensified during a reconnaissance flight on Monday morning. Even though the circulation around Tropical Storm Earl was stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Earl’s circulation. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms in the eastern half of Earl generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Earl’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Earl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Earl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near the Bahamas. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ear;’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Earl could continue to intensify slowly. The upper level winds are forecast to weaken in a day or so, and Earl is likely to intensify to a hurricane when that happens.

Tropical Storm Earl will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Earl toward the north during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Earl will move farther away from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Earl could approach Bermuda by the end of the week.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Danielle started to weaken west of the Azores. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Danielle was located at latitude 40.2°N and longitude 43.9°W which put it about 915 miles (1475 km) west-northwest of the Azores. Danielle was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Hurricane Danielle Starts to Move Northeast

Hurricane Danielle started to move toward the northeast on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Danielle was located at latitude 39.0°N and longitude 44.7°W which put it about 955 miles (1540 km) west of the Azores. Danielle was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

After being nearly stationary over the North Atlantic west of the Azores during much of the weekend, Hurricane Danielle finally started to move toward the northeast on Sunday night. Danielle strengthened on Sunday. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Hurricane Danielle. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Danielle’s circulation. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Danielle. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Danielle will move through an environment capable of supporting a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Danielle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak on Monday and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Danielle could get a little stronger during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over the North Atlantic Ocean will approach Danielle from the west on later on Monday. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Danielle will move over cooler water on Tuesday. The combination of more vertical wind shear and cooler water will cause Hurricane Danielle to begin a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over the North Atlantic Ocean will steer Hurricane Danielle toward the northeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Hurricane Danielle will pass north of the Azores later this week. Danielle could eventually affect the weather in Western Europe as an extratropical cyclone.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Earl was spinning north of the Virgin Islands. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 65.4°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) north-northwest of St. Thomas. Earl was moving toward the northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.