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Disturbance Moves Toward Gulf Coast

A disturbance generated by a cluster of thunderstorms moved toward the Gulf Coast on Sunday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the disturbance was located near latitude 27.0°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 240 miles (390 km) south of Mobile, Alabama. The disturbance was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1015 mb.

A disturbance generated by a cluster of thunderstorms over the central Gulf of Mexico was designated as Invest 90L on Sunday afternoon. Visible satellite images showed that a distinct center of circulation had formed in a disturbance over the north central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday afternoon. A swirl of lower clouds was clearly visible on the images. Some thunderstorms were beginning to develop in bands northwest of the center of circulation. Otherwise, there were mainly low clouds and showers in the other bands near the center. Thunderstorms were also occurring in a band on the northeastern periphery of the disturbance.

The disturbance will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 18 hours. The disturbance will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. The southern end of an upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the disturbance. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit the development of a tropical cyclone. The disturbance is currently forecast not to develop into a tropical cyclone, but some development could occur if more thunderstorms form near the center of circulation. The National Hurricane Center in its 2:00 p.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook indicated the probability was 10% that the disturbance would develop into a tropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer the disturbance toward the north-northeast. On its anticipated track the cluster of storms will move toward the central Gulf Coast. Bands of thunderstorms could drop locally heavy rain over northwest Florida and south Alabama during the next 48 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Some thunderstorms could approach severe criteria.

Cluster of Thunderstorms Forms over Central Gulf of Mexico

A cluster of thunderstorms formed over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The cluster of storms persisted on Sunday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the cluster of thunderstorms was located near latitude 26.0°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 310 miles (500 km) south of Mobile, Alabama. The cluster of thunderstorms was moving slowly toward the north-northeast. Some of the thunderstorms in the cluster were producing sustained winds of 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1015 mb.

A cluster of thunderstorms formed over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and it persisted on Sunday morning. There was not a well defined low level center of circulation beneath the cluster of storms. Visible satellite loops provided indications of several possible centers of rotation in the middle troposphere. Thunderstorms in the cluster generated some upper level divergence that pumped mass away toward the northeast. The strongest winds were occurring in bands of thunderstorms.

The cluster of thunderstorms will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 18 hours. The cluster of storms will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. The southern end of an upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the thunderstorms. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit the development of a tropical cyclone. The cluster of thunderstorms is currently forecast not to develop into a tropical cyclone, but some development could occur if a surface center of circulation forms beneath the cluster.

The upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer the cluster of thunderstorms toward the north-northeast. On its anticipated track the cluster of storms will move toward the central Gulf Coast. Bands of thunderstorms could drop locally heavy rain over northwest Florida and south Alabama during the next 48 hours. One band of showers and thunderstorms is currently approaching that area. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Some thunderstorms could approach severe criteria.

Tropical Depression Ida Brings Rain and Storms to Southeast U.S.

Tropical Depression Ida brought rain and thunderstorms to the southeast U.S. on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located at latitude 32.6°N and longitude 90.3°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) north-northwest of Jackson, Mississippi. Ida was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Former Hurricane Ida weakened to a tropical depression over Mississippi on Monday afternoon. Even though the speed of the wind circulating around Ida decreased, Tropical Depression Ida was still dropping locally heavy rain and generating a few tornadoes over the southeast U.S. Thunderstorms in bands on the eastern side of Ida were dropping locally heavy rain over parts of Mississippi, Alabama, northwest Florida and northwestern Georgia. Flash Flood Watches were in effect for all of those places. Tornadoes were reported in southeastern Mississippi, and southwestern and central Alabama.

Electricity was still out in all of New Orleans. Southerly winds blowing around the eastern side of Tropical Depression Ida’s circulation were still pushing water toward the coast. Those winds were blowing to near tropical storm force in some locations. A weather station at Fort Morgan, Alabama was reporting a sustained wind speed of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 m.p.h. (76 km/h). The water levels had decreased along the coast, but the persistent southerly winds were preventing the water levels from returning to normal. The water levels should continue to decrease when Tropical Depression Ida moves farther away from the coast.

Tropical Depression Ida will move northeast during the next 72 hours. The center of Ida will cross Tennessee on Tuesday. Ida could be over West Virginia on Wednesday and it could reach the east coast of the U.S. on Thursday. Tropical Depression Ida will continue to drop locally heavy rain over the eastern U.S. The circulation around Ida will interact with a cold front moving slowly south toward the Ohio River. The interaction between Ida and the cold front could enhance rainfall over the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. Flash Flood Watches are in effect across the region from Tennessee to New Jersey.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Julian made a transition to an extratropical cyclone west of the Azores on Monday morning and Tropical Storm Kate developed east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 50.9°W which put it about 805 miles (1295 km) east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Kate was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Hurricane Ida Knocks Out Power in New Orleans

Strong winds in Hurricane Ida knocked out power to New Orleans on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Ida was located at latitude 30.7°N and longitude 90.7°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) west-northwest of New Orleans, Louisiana. Ida was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River. The Hurricane Warning included New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Intracoastal City to Morgan City, Louisiana and from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida Line.

There were reports Hurricane Ida had damaged transmission lines that deliver electricity to New Orleans and that power was out in all of New Orleans and Orleans parish. There were also reports of widespread power outages in other parts of southeast Louisiana. A weather station at Louis Armstrong International Airport in New Orleans recently reported a sustained wind speed of 64 m.p.h. (104 km/h) and a wind gust of 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). Heavy rain was causing flash floods in southeastern Louisiana. Flash Flood Emergencies were in effect for Laplace and the South Shore area of Metropolitan New Orleans. Strong southeasterly winds on the eastern side of Hurricane Ida were still blowing water toward the coast. Storm surges were still occurring in southeastern Louisiana and along the coast of Mississippi. A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to to the Alabama/Florida border. The Storm Surge Warning includes Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and Mobile Bay.

Hurricane Ida will move slowly toward the north during the next 12 hours. The center of Ida will pass east of Baton Rouge. Hurricane Ida will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland. Ida will move northeast over Mississippi on Monday. Hurricane Ida will continue to drop locally heavy rain over eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, during the overnight hours. Heavy rain will spread over the rest of Mississippi, western Alabama and southwestern Tennessee on Monday. Flash Flood Watches have been issued for those locations. Ida will be over Tennessee on Tuesday and it will bring rain to the Tennessee River Valley and the Ohio River Valley.

Powerful Hurricane Ida Hits Southeast Louisiana

Powerful Hurricane Ida hit southeast Louisiana on Sunday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Ida was located at latitude 29.2°N and longitude 90.3°W which put it about 35 miles (55 km) southeast of Houma, Louisiana. Ida was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 930 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River. The Hurricane Warning included New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cameron, Louisiana to Intracoastal City and from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida Line.

According to the National Hurricane Center the center of Hurricane Ida made landfall near Port Fourchon, Louisiana. That location was about 60 miles (95 km) south of New Orleans, about 15 miles southwest of Grand Isle, and about 45 miles southeast of Houma. Ida rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it approached the coast. The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) at the time of landfall. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Ida was 31.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.8. Hurricane Ida was as intense as Hurricane Laura was in 2020. Ida was a little smaller than Laura was.

A weather station at Southwest Pass with an anemometer 125 feet (38 meters) above the station measured a sustained wind speed of 105 m.p.h. (169 km/h) and a wind gust of 121 m.p.h. (195 km/h). A weather station at Pilot’s Station with an anemometer 20 meters above the surface measured a sustained wind speed of 106 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and a wind gust of 128 m.p.h. (205 km/h). Southeasterly winds blowing around the eastern side of Hurricane Ida were pushing water toward the coast. Gauges at Shell Beach, Louisiana and the Waveland Mississippi Yacht Club both measured water level rises of approximately 7 feet (2 meters). Widespread power outages were reported around New Orleans.

Hurricane Ida will move slowly inland during the rest of Sunday. Ida will weaken gradually because it will be moving over a relatively flat surface that includes marshes and bayous. The center of Hurricane Ida will be near Houma, Louisiana in a few hours. Strong southeasterly winds will continue to push water toward the coast and the storm surge will continue until Hurricane Ida moves farther inland and weakens. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border. The Storm Surge Warning includes Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay. Ida will pass near Baton Rouge on Sunday night. Hurricane Ida could produce hurricane force wind gusts near New Orleans and Baton Rouge. More widespread power outages could occur over southeast Louisiana. Ida will move northeast over Mississippi on Monday. It will drop locally heavy rain over eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, western Alabama and southwestern Tennessee. Flash Flood Watches have been issued for those locations.

Hurricane Ida Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 4

Hurricane Ida rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during the overnight hours. At 7:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Ida was located at latitude 28.3°N and longitude 89.4°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) south-southeast of Grand Isle, Louisiana. Ida was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 935 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River. The Hurricane Warning included New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cameron, Louisiana to Intracoastal City and from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida Line.

Hurricane Ida rapidly intensified to Category 4 southeast of Louisiana on Saturday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Ida. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ida. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly and the wind speed increased quickly.

The circulation around Hurricane Ida increased in size when it rapidly intensified. Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Ida. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Ida was 31.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.6. Hurricane Ida was as strong as Hurricane Laura was last year and Ida was just a little smaller than Laura was. Hurricane Ida will be capable of causing regional severe damage.

Hurricane Ida will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Hurricane Ida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C.  It will be under an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  The winds will be weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Ida could strengthen a little more before it makes landfall in southeast Louisiana. Hurricane Ida could pull some slightly drier air over the southeastern U.S. into its circulation when it nears the coast. If that happens, Ida will stop intensifying and it could weaken slightly just before it makes landfall.

Hurricane Ida will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends from the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The high will steer Ida toward the northwest during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Ida is likely to make landfall the coast of southeast Louisiana as a major hurricane in a few hours.  Ida will be capable of causing severe damage. Hurricane Ida could cause a storm surge of up to 12 to 16 feet (3.6 to 5 meters). A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast from west of Vermillion Bay to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Storm Surge Warning includes Vermillion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas. Hurricane Ida move toward the north as it moves inland over southeastern Louisiana. Ida could produce hurricane force winds in New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Widespread power outages could occur in southeast Louisiana. Ida will also drop heavy rain over parts of eastern Louisiana and Mississippi. Flash floods could occur in that region.

Hurricane Ida Strengthens to Cat. 2

Hurricane Ida strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Ida was located at latitude 25.6°N and longitude 86.6°W which put it about 380 miles (610 km) southeast of Houma, Louisiana. Ida was moving toward the northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River. The Hurricane Warning included New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cameron, Louisiana to Intracoastal City and from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida Line.

Hurricane Ida strengthened Saturday over the Gulf of Mexico. A circular eye with a diameter of 28 miles (44 km) was visible on satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ida. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Ida. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Ida will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Hurricane Ida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C.  It will move under an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  The winds will be weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Ida will strengthen and it is likely to undergo a period of rapid intensification that will cause it to strengthen to a major hurricane.  Ida could reach Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Hurricane Ida could pull some slightly drier air over the southeastern U.S. into its circulation when it nears the coast. If that happens, Ida will stop intensifying and it could weaken slightly just before it makes landfall.

Hurricane Ida will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends from the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The high will steer Ida toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Ida is likely to approach the coast of southeast Louisiana as a major hurricane by the middle of the day on Sunday.  Ida will be capable of causing major damage when it approaches the coast. I t could cause a storm surge of up to 10 to 15 feet (3 to 4.5 meters). A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast from west of Vermillion Bay to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Storm Surge Warning includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas. Hurricane Ida could move more slowly when it nears the coast on Sunday. That could prolong the duration of strong winds. Widespread power outages could occur in southeast Louisiana. Ida will also drop heavy rain over parts of eastern Louisiana and Mississippi. Flash floods could occur in that region. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations have been announced for parts of southeastern Louisiana.

Hurricane Ida probably will not be as strong or as large as Hurricane Laura was last year.  Ida could be a little bigger and a little stronger than Hurricane Delta was when it approached Louisiana in 2020. Ida is likely to be bigger and strong than Hurricane Zeta was when Zeta hit the same part of Louisiana in 2020.

Hurricane Ida Crosses Western Cuba

Hurricane Ida moved across western Cuba on Friday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Ida was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 84.0°W which put it about 105 miles (165 km) west of Havana, Cuba. Ida was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River. The Hurricane Warning included New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cameron to Intracoastal City, Louisiana and from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border. Hurricane Warnings were also in effect for the Cuba provinces of the Isle of Youth, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

The center of Hurricane Ida passed over western Cuba on Friday evening. Even though the center of Ida was over land for several hours, weather radars in Cuba and reports from a reconnaissance plane indicated that the core of Hurricane Ida remained intact. A circular eye with a diameter of 26 miles (42 km) was at the center of Ida. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ida. Storms near the generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north of the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Ida. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Ida will move through an environment that will be very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Hurricane Ida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C.  It will move under an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.  The winds will be weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Ida will strengthen now that the center is moving over the Gulf of Mexico. Ida is likely to undergo a period of rapid intensification during the weekend that will cause it to strengthen to a major hurricane.  Ida could reach Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday.

Hurricane Ida will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends from the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The high will steer Ida toward the northwest during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Ida is likely to approach the coast of Louisiana as a major hurricane on Sunday.  Ida will be capable of causing major damage when it approaches the coast. It could cause a storm surge of up to 10 to 15 feet (3 to 4.5 meters). A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast from west of Vermillion Bay to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Storm Surge Warning includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas. Hurricane Ida could start to move more slowly when it nears the coast on Sunday. That could prolong the duration of strong winds. Widespread power outages could occur in southeast Louisiana. Ida will also drop heavy rain over parts of eastern Louisiana and Mississippi. Flash floods could occur in that region. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations have been announced for parts of southeastern Louisiana. Ida probably will not be as strong or as large as Hurricane Laura was last year.  Ida could be a little bigger and a little stronger than Hurricane Delta was when it approached Louisiana in 2020. Ida is likely to be bigger and strong than Hurricane Zeta was when Zeta hit the same part of Louisiana in 2020.

Ida Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Ida rapidly intensified to a hurricane early on Friday afternoon near the Isle of Youth, Cuba. At 1:10 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Ida was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 82.4°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) east-southeast of the Isle of Youth, Cuba. Ida was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Hurricane Watch included New Orleans, Lake Ponchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Hurricane Warnings were in effect for the Cuba provinces of the Isle of Youth, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane flying through former Tropical Storm Ida early on Friday afternoon found that Ida had strengthened to a hurricane. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Ida and an eye was apparent on weather radars in Cuba. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Ida generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Ida. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Ida.

Hurricane Ida will move through an environment that will be increasingly favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Hurricane Ida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C.  Ida will move across the Isle of Youth and western Cuba during the next 12 hours. The intensification process is likely to slow when the center of Ida is over land and Ida could even weaken a little.  An upper level ridge will be over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.  The winds will be weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Ida will strengthen when the center moves over the Gulf of Mexico. Ida is likely to undergo a period of rapid intensification during the weekend that will cause it to strengthen to a major hurricane.  Ida could reach Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday.

Hurricane Ida will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extended from the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The high will steer Ida toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  As mentioned above, on its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ida will move across the Isle of Youth and western Cuba on during the next 12 hours. Ida will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to western Cuba. Ida is likely to approach the coast of Louisiana as a major hurricane on Sunday.  Ida will be capable of causing major damage when it approaches the coast. It could cause a storm surge of up to 10 to 14 feet (3 to 4 meters). A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast from Sabine Pass to the Alabama/Florida border. The Storm Surge Watch includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations have been announced for parts of southeastern Louisiana. Ida probably will not be as strong or as large as Hurricane Laura was last year.  Ida could be a little bigger and a little stronger than Hurricane Delta was when it approached Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Storm Ida Strengthens

Reconnaissance planes found Friday morning that Tropical Storm Ida had strengthened over the Northwest Caribbean Sea. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 81.7°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) southeast of the Isle of Youth, Cuba. Ida was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Hurricane Watch included New Orleans, Lake Ponchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

Two reconnaissance planes flying through Tropical Storm Ida on Friday morning found that the sustained wind speed had increased and the minimum surface pressure had decreased. The planes also found that the circulation around Ida was more organized.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of Ida.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.  The decreasing pressure resulted in the generation of more force which produced higher wind speeds.  More thunderstorms were also forming in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Ida. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Ida.

Tropical Storm Ida will move into an environment that will become increasingly favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  An upper level low over the southeast U.S. was producing southerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Ida’s circulation.  Those winds were causing some vertical wind shear.  However, the upper low was moving away from Ida and the low was weakening.  The wind shear will decrease as the upper low weakens.  Tropical Storm Ida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C.  Ida will continue to intensify today.  Tropical Storm Ida could strengthen to a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Ida will move across western Cuba this evening, which could briefly slow the intensification process.  An upper level ridge will be over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.  The winds will be weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Ida is likely to undergo a period of rapid intensification during the weekend that will cause it to strengthen to a major hurricane.  Ida could reach Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Ida will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extended from the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The high will steer Ida toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  As mentioned above, on its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ida will move across western Cuba on Friday evening. Ida will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to western Cuba. Ida is likely to approach the coast of Louisiana as a major hurricane on Sunday.  Ida will be capable of causing major damage when it approaches the coast. It could cause a storm surge of up to 10 to 14 feet (3 to 4 meters). A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast from Sabine Pass to the Alabama/Florida border. The Storm Surge Watch includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay. Ida probably will not be as strong or as large as Hurricane Laura was last year.  Ida could be a little bigger and a little stronger than Hurricane Delta was when it approached Louisiana in 2020.