Tag Archives: Jamaica

Tropical Storm Melissa Stalls Southeast of Jamaica

Tropical Storm Melissa stalled over the Caribbean Sea southeast of Jamaica on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 74.3°W which put the center about 300 miles (480 km) south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.   Melissa was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Jamaica.

Tropical Storm Melissa stalled southeast of Jamaica as easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere and westerly winds in the upper levels competed to push the tropical storm.  The vertical wind shear was also affecting the structure of Melissa’s circulation.  Thunderstorms continued to develop in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Melissa.  Bands in the western side of Melissa’s circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Wednesday.

The vertical wind shear also caused the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Melissa to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern half of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Melissa.  The winds in the southwestern quadrant of Melissa’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move through an environment that is marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is over Cuba.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Melissa’s circulation.  Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Melissa could intensify a little during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Melissa slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Melissa will move slowly toward Jamaica.

 

Tropical Storm Melissa Forms over Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Melissa formed over the Caribbean Sea on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 71.7°W which put the center about 300 miles (480 km) south of Port Au Prince, Haiti.  Melissa was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Jamaica.

A low pressure system over the Caribbean Sea south of Hispaniola strengthened on Tuesday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Melissa.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Storm Melissa on Tuesday morning.  Thunderstorms were also forming in bands in the eastern side of Melissa’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Melissa consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Melissa began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Melissa was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the western half of Tropical Storm Melissa.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move through an environment that is favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is near Cuba.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Melissa’s circulation.  Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Melissa is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Melissa toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Melissa will move closer to Haiti and Jamaica.

Low Pressure System Forms Over Caribbean Sea

A low pressure system formed over the Caribbean Sea on Wednesday.  The low pressure system was designated as invest 99L.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Invest 99L was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 77.6°E which put the center about 140 miles (225 km) south-southwest of Kingston Jamaica.   Invest 99L was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

The circulation around Invest 99L was large, but it was not well organized.  There were at least three smaller counterclockwise circulations revolving around inside the larger circulation.  One of the smaller circulations was north of Honduras.  A second smaller circulation was southwest of Jamaica and the third smaller circulation was southeast of Jamaica.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around each of the smaller circulations.

Invest 99L will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Invest 99L will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge.  Invest 99L is likely to develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or two.

Invest 99L will move around the southern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Invest 99L slowly toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Invest 99L will move slowly toward Nicaragua and Honduras.

Tropical Storm Rafael Brings Wind and Rain to Jamaica

Tropical Storm Rafael was bringing wind and rain to Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  The center of Rafael was just southwest of Jamaica.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 78.4°W which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica.  Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.  A  Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Jamaica. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, and Ciego de Avila.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.

Tropical Storm Rafael was strengthening on Tuesday morning as it passed near Jamaica.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Rafael.  Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Rafael was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the eastern side of Rafael’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Rafael were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Rafael will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Rafael could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Storm Rafael is likely to strengthen to a hurricane by Tuesday night.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Rafael will reach the Cayman Islands by Tuesday night.  Rafael is likely to reach western Cuba by Wednesday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Rafael will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain Jamaica for the rest of Tuesday.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Rafael is likely to be a hurricane when it moves over the Cayman Islands.  Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands.  It could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) in the Cayman Islands.  Rafael will be a hurricane when it reaches western Cuba.  Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Rafael

Former Tropical Depression Eighteen strengthened to Tropical Storm Rafael south of Jamaica on Monday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 76.7°W which put the center about 175 miles (280 km) south of Kingston, Jamaica.  Rafael was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac,

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey and Las Tunas.

Former Tropical Depression Eighteen strengthened on Monday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Rafael.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Rafael was organizing rapidly.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rafael’s circulation.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Rafael.  Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away fro the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Rafael will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Rafael could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Storm Rafael is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Rafael will pass near Jamaica on Monday night.  Rafael  will reach the Cayman Islands by Tuesday night.  Rafael is likely to reach western Cuba by Wednesday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain Jamaica. Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Rafael is likely to be a hurricane when it moves over the Cayman Islands.  Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands.  It could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) in the Cayman Islands.

Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Jamaica, Hurricane Watch for Cayman Islands

The threat posed by a low pressure system over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica and a Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands on Sunday afternoon.  The low pressure system was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen by the U.S. National Hurricane Center.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 77.1°W which put the center about 345 miles (555 km) south of Kingston, Jamaica.  The low pressure system was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated a low pressure system over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea on Sunday afternoon.  The aircraft found that there was a distinct low low level center of circulation in the low pressure system.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of the low pressure system.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were starting to revolve around the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen.  Storms near the center of the low pressure system began to generate upper level divergence.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will intensify during the next 24 hours.  It is likely to become a tropical storm on Monday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will reach Jamaica on Monday night.  It could reach the Cayman Islands on Tuesday afternoon.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will bring strong winds and heavy rain Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Subtropical Storm Patty moved east of the Azores.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located at latitude 37.3°N and longitude 22.3°W which put the center about 280 miles (450 km) east-southeast of Lajes, Azores.  Patty was moving toward the east at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Hurricane Beryl Brings Wind and Rain to Jamaica

Hurricane Beryl brought wind and rain to Jamaica on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 79.2°W which put the center about 160 miles (260 km) southeast of Grand Cayman.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Cozumel.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Cancun, Mexico.   A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.

Hurricane Beryl brought strong winds and heavy rain to Jamaica on Wednesday.  The center of Beryl’s circulation passed just to the south of Jamaica.  The northern eyewall of Hurricane Beryl moved along the south coast of Jamaica.  The strongest winds occurred in the southern part of Jamaica.  A weather station at Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston (MKJP) reported a sustained wind speed of 48 m.p.h. (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The strongest part of Hurricane Beryl passed south of that station.  There were report of wind damage and flooding in parts of Jamaica.

The most of the core of Hurricane Beryl passed just south of Jamaica and the core remained relatively intact.  Reconnaissance aircraft reported an eye with a diameter of 28 miles (45 km) at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  There was a ring of thunderstorms around the eye, but there was a break in the southwestern part of the ring.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  Westerly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere were inhibiting divergence of mass to the west of Hurricane Beryl.  Since the removal of mass was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl was nearly steady on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.1. Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2018.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will be less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Gulf of Mexico and Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will also cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Beryl will continue to weaken as the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will pass south of the Cayman Islands during Wednesday night.

Hurricane Beryl will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the shower.

Hurricane Beryl will approach the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday evening.  Beryl is likely to still be a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan.

 

 

Major Hurricane Beryl Nears Jamaica

Major Hurricane Beryl neared Jamaica on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 76.1°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.  A Hurricane Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Cancun, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Campeche, Mexico.

U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA aircraft found that Hurricane Beryl was still a major hurricane on Wednesday morning.   Although the eye appeared cloud filled on visible satellite images, the reconnaissance aircraft reported a circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.   The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.   Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.   Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  Westerly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere were inhibiting divergence of mass to the west of Hurricane Beryl.  Since the removal of mass was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the surface pressure was increasing slowly.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl was nearly steady during Wednesday morning.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.9.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will be less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low over Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will also cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Beryl will weaken as the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl pass near the southern coast of Jamaica on Wednesday afternoon.  Beryl will begin to affect the Cayman Islands later on Wednesday evening.

The core of Hurricane Beryl is likely to pass just south of Jamaica during the next few hours.  Much of Jamaica could experience winds to hurricane force.  The strongest winds will occur along the southern coast of Jamaica.   Beryl will be capable of causing regional major damage. Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain on Jamaica.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

Hurricane Beryl will reach the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night. Beryl is forecast still to be a hurricane when it reaches the Cayman Islands.  Hurricane Beryl will be capable of causing regional serious damage when it reaches the Cayman Islands.

Hurricane Beryl will approach the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday evening.  Beryl is likely to still be a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan.

Dangerous Hurricane Beryl Moves Closer to Jamaica

Dangerous Hurricane Beryl moved closer to Jamaica on Tuesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 72.7°W which put the center about 300 miles (400 km) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.   Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the South coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Chetumal, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal, Mexico to Belize City, Belize.

U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA aircraft continued to fly reconnaissance into Hurricane Beryl on Tuesday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The equilibrium between upper level divergence and lower level convergence caused the surface pressure to remain nearly steady.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl increased on Tuesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.2.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will be less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move closer to an upper level low over Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Beryl will weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will begin to affect Jamaica by Wednesday morning.

Hurricane Beryl is likely to be a major hurricane when it reaches Jamaica.  Beryl will be capable of causing regional major damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain on Jamaica.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

The circulation around the northern side of Hurricane Beryl will cause the water level to rise along the south coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.  There are already reports of a storm surge along the south coast of Dominican Republic.

Hurricane Beryl will reach the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night.  Beryl is forecast still to be a hurricane when it reaches the Cayman Islands.

 

 

Powerful Hurricane Beryl Moves Toward Jamaica

Powerful Hurricane Beryl moved over the Caribbean Sea toward Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 68.9°W which put the center about 555 miles (895 km) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.   Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 938 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Jamaica.

Hurricane Watches were in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the South coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA aircraft determined that Hurricane Beryl was still a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The equilibrium between upper level divergence and lower level convergence caused the surface pressure to remain nearly steady.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl increased on Tuesday morning.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (280 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 48.7.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will become less favorable for a powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move closer to an upper level trough over Northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Beryl will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will move toward Jamaica.  The core of Beryl’s could reach Jamaica by late Wednesday morning.

Hurricane Beryl is likely to be a major hurricane when it reaches Jamaica.  Beryl will be capable of causing regional major damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain on Jamaica.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

The circulation around the northern side of Hurricane Beryl will cause the water level to rise along the south coasts of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti.  There are already reports of a storm surge along the south coast of Puerto Rico.