Tag Archives: HWISI

Hurricane Felicia Churns West, Tropical Storm Guillermo Strengthens

Hurricane Felicia churned toward the west over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Felicia was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 129.0°W which put it about 1330 miles (2140 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Felicia was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Hurricane Felicia weakened gradually on Sunday as it churned westward over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. Even though Felicia was weakening, the circulation around the hurricane remained very well organized. A small circular eye was at the center of Hurricane Felicia. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Felicia. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Felicia was still small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Felicia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Felicia is 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 6.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 28.3.

Hurricane Felicia will move through an environment that will become less favorable for a strong hurricane during the next 48 hours. Felicia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough near Hawaii will move toward Felicia during the next several days. The trough will produce strong southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hurricane Felicia in a couple of days. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear and the shear will cause Felicia to weaken more quickly.

Hurricane Felicia will move south of a subtropical high pressure system during the next few days. The high will steer Felicia toward the west. On its anticipated track Hurricane Felicia will move over the Central Pacific Ocean on Tuesday night.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Guillermo strengthened gradually southwest of Baja California on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 113.8°W which put it about 385 miles (620 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Guillermo was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Guillermo was much larger than the circulation around Hurricane Felicia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) on the eastern side of Guillermo. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) on the western side of the circulation. Tropical Storm Guillermo is forecast to move toward the west and to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Major Hurricane Felicia Strengthens

Major Hurricane Felicia strengthened on Saturday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Felicia was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 124.6°W which put it about 1120 miles (1800 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Felicia was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Hurricane Felicia intensified on Saturday morning even though the small hurricane began to move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was slightly cooler. A well formed circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Felicia. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms around the core of Felicia generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The circulation around Hurricane Felicia was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (35 km) from the center of Felicia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Felicia was 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.0.

Hurricane Felicia will gradually move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are slightly cooler. Felicia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C during the rest of the weekend. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Felicia will move through an environment capable of supporting a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Felicia will start to weaken when it moves over slightly cooler water. Since the circulation around Hurricane Felicia is very small, Felicia could weaken rapidly when it moves into a less favorable environment.

Hurricane Felicia will move south of a subtropical high pressure system during the next few days. The high will steer Felicia toward the west. On its anticipated track Hurricane Felicia will move toward the Central Pacific Ocean.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Seven-E formed south of Baja California on Saturday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Seven-E was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 109.2°W which put it about 475 miles (680 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. The tropical depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Hurricane Felicia Reaches Cat. 4

Hurricane Felicia reached Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Felicia was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 123.2°W which put it about 1030 miles (1660 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Felicia was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Hurricane Felicia strengthened to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday. A small circular eye at the center of Felicia became more well defined on satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms around the core of Felicia generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The circulation around Hurricane Felicia was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (35 km) from the center of Felicia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Felicia was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.2.

Hurricane Felicia may have reached its peak intensity. Felicia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C for a few more hours. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Those environmental conditions may allow Hurricane Felicia to maintain its intensity for awhile. Felicia will move over slightly cooler water during the weekend. Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures will cause Hurricane Felicia to start to weaken.

Hurricane Felicia will move south of a subtropical high pressure system during the next few days. The high will steer Felicia toward the west. On its anticipated track Hurricane Felicia will move toward the Central Pacific Ocean.

Major Tropical Cyclone Tauktae Hits Gujarat

Major Tropical Cyclone Tauktae hit the Indian state of Gujarat on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 71.4°E which put it about 25 miles (405 km) west of Mahuva, India. Tauktae was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae made landfall on coast of Gujarat near Jafrabad, India on Monday. The core of Tauktae moved inland between Diu and Mahuva. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was the equivalent of a major hurricane, when it made landfall. A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was evident on satellite imagery. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tauktae.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.9. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move inland toward the north-northeast over Gujarat during the next 24 hours. Tauktae will produce winds capable of causing major damage in the southern part of Gujarat. Strong southerly winds will push water into the Gulf of Khambhat. A storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) could occur at some places along the coast. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will also drop heavy rain over parts of Gujarat and flash floods could occur. Tauktae will start to move more toward the east later on Tuesday when it reaches the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.

Typhoon Surigae Moves away from the Philippines

Typhoon Surigae started to move away from the Philippines on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Surigae was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 124.9°E which put it about 240 miles (385 km) east-northeast of Aparri, Philippines. Surigae was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Typhoon Surigae weakened slowly on Wednesday as it started to move farther away from the Philippines. A large circular eye with a diameter of 70 miles (110 km) was present at the center of Surigae. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the stronger winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Surigae. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

Typhoon Surigae still had a large circulation on Wednesday. Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Surigae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Surigae was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.2. Surigae was still the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Surigae will move into an environment that will become less favorable for a strong typhoon during the next several days. Surigae will move over cooler water northeast of the Philippines where the Sea Surface Temperatures is near 26°C. In addition, an upper level trough over China will move toward Typhoon Surigae. The trough will produce westerly winds which will blow toward the top of the typhoon. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. The combination of cooler water and more wind shear will cause Typhoon Surigae to weaken during the next 48 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Typhoon Surigae toward the east-northeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Surigae will move away from the Philippines and it will stay southeast of Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands. Surigae could approach Iwo To by the end of the weekend.

Typhoon Surigae Stalls East of Luzon

Typhoon Surigae stalled east of Luzon on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Surigae was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 126.1°E which put it about 310 miles (500 km) east of Baler, Philippines. Surigae was moving toward the north-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Typhoon Surigae completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Monday. The inner eyewall weakened to a swirl of low clouds. There was a large circular eye at the center of Surigae. The eye had a diameter of 60 miles (95 km). The large eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Surigae. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The eyewall replacement cycle left Typhoon Surigae with a symmetrical circulation. Winds to typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Surigae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Surigae was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.0.

Typhoon Surigae will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong typhoon during the next 24 hours. Surigae will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the end of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Surigae will be moving slowly and it could mix cooler water to the surface. The cooler water could cause Surigae to weaken gradually.

Typhoon Surigae will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high will steer Surigae toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. After that time Typhoon Surigae will approach the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. Those winds will turn Surigae toward the east. On its anticipated track, the core Typhoon Surigae with the strongest winds will remain east of Luzon.

Typhoon Surigae Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Typhoon Surigae rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Surigae was located at latitude 10.3°N and longitude 131.6°E which put it about 220 miles (330 km) northwest of Palau. Surigae was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Typhoon Surigae rapidly intensified on Friday as it moved farther away from Palau. A small circular eye was present at the center of circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Surigae. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon in all directions. The removal of mass allowed the pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Surigae increased in size on Friday. Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Surigae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Surigae was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.9. Surigae was a large, dangerous typhoon capable of causing major damage.

Typhoon Surigae will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Surigae will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. However, the winds at lower levels in the atmosphere will also blow from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Surigae will likely continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Surigae to weaken.

Typhoon Surigae will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Surigae toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. After that time Typhoon Surigae will move more toward the north when it moves around the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track Typhoon Surigae could be east of the Philippines in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Habana Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Habana weakened over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 20.0°S and longitude 70.8°E which put it about 435 miles (700 km) east of Rodrigues. Habana was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Habana weakened gradually over the South Indian Ocean on Friday. The temperature at the top of the clouds was not as cold, which indicated that the clouds were not rising as high in the atmosphere. Even though Habana was weakening it still was a very well organized tropical cyclone. There was an eye at the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms around the core of generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Habana increased slightly in size. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Habana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Habana was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.4.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move through an environment that will gradually become less favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next several day. Habana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 27°C. An upper level trough east of Madagascar will move toward Tropical Cyclone Habana. The trough will produce westerly winds which will blow toward the top of Habana. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and the shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Habana to weaken during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Habana toward the south during the next 24 hours. Then the high will strengthen and start to steer Habana toward the west again later in the weekend. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Habana could be southeast of Rodrigues in a next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Habana Strengthens Back to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Habana strengthened back to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 75.1°E which put it about 750 miles (1210 km) east of Rodrigues. Habana was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 935 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Habana strengthened back to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues on Wednesday. Microwave satellite images revealed the existence of concentric eyewalls in the middle of Habana. The small original eye and eyewall was surrounded by a larger outer eye. The strongest winds were still occurring in the smaller inner eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls.

The formation of concentric eyewalls increased the size of the core of Tropical Cyclone Habana. However, the size of the overall circulation around Habana remained small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Habana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Habana was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.4.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. Habana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The formation of concentric eyewalls is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Habana to weaken at least temporarily when the inner eyewall with the strongest winds dissipates. Habana could strengthen again if the outer eyewall being to contract.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Habana toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Habana will remain far to the south of Diego Garcia. Habana is forecast to still be east of Rodrigues during the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Habana Moves West

Tropical Cyclone Habana moved west over the South Indian Ocean on Tuesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 77.7°E which put it about 950 miles (1500 km) east of Rodrigues. Habana was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Habana strengthened on Tuesday as it moved westward over the South Indian Ocean. A small circular eye was evident again on infrared and microwave satellite imagery. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Habana generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Habana was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Habana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Habana was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 25.4.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Habana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Habana is likely to intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Since the circulation around Habana is so small, the intensity could change rapidly.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Habana toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Habana will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia. Habana is forecast to remain east of Rodrigues during the next few days.