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Tropical Cyclone Emnati hits Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Emanti hit the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday night. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 22.5°S and longitude 48.0°E which put it about 15 miles (25 km) south of Vohipeno, Madagascar. Emnati was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati made landfall on the east coast of Madagascar near Vohipeno on Tuesday night. Emnati was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it made landfall. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation, The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Emnati was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.1.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati never fully completed an eyewall replacement cycle before it hit the east coast of Madagascar. The circulation around the small inner eye persisted. The strongest thunderstorms and heaviest rains were occurring in the southern half of Emnati’s circulation. Bands in the northeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Emnati consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Northwesterly winds were sinking down the eastern slopes mountains in the northern part of Emnati’s circulation. The sinking, drier air was being pulled into the northeastern part of the tropical cyclone and it was inhibiting the development of thunderstorms in that region.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move around the northwestern part of a surface high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emanti toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated path Tropical Cyclone Emanti will move across southeastern Madagascar during the next 24 hours. Emnati will weaken gradually as the center moves farther inland. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southeastern Madagascar. The heaviest rain will fall on the eastern slopes of mountains where easterly winds will push the air up the slopes. Flash floods are likely to occur in those areas. There could also be widespread electrical outages. Tropical Cyclone Emnati is the fourth tropical cyclone to hit Madagascar since the start of the tropical cyclone season in the Southwest Indian Ocean.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Nears Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Emnati neared the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 49.9°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) northeast of Manajary, Madagascar. Emnati was moving toward the southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati weakened as it neared the east coast of Madagascar. A long eyewall replacement cycle was disrupting the inner core of Emnati’s circulation. The inner eyewall was dissipating slowly. The strongest winds were occurring in the larger outer eyewall. A break in the ring of thunderstorms in the northwest side of the outer eyewall was evident on microwave satellite imagery. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the outer eyewall. Storms near the center of Emnati generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The long eyewall replacement cycle produced a large circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Emnati was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 25.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.6. Tropical Cyclone Emnati was capable of causing widespread serious damage.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though Tropical Cyclone Emnati will be in an environment favorable for intensification, the long eyewall replace cycle could cause Emnati to weaken while the inner eyewall fully dissipates. In addition, northwesterly winds blowing around the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Emanti could cause drier air to sink down the eastern side of mountains in Madagascar. The drier air could weaken thunderstorms in the northern part of Emnati’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Emanti will reach the east coast of Madagascar in 12 hours. The center of Emnati could make landfall between Nosy Varika and Farafangana. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will be capable of causing widespread serious damage to southern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will bring strong destructive winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Widespread electrical outages are likely to occur. Emanti will also cause a significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Moves Toward Madgascar

Tropical Cyclone Emnati moved toward Madagascar on Monday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 53.1°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) east of Toamasina, Madagascar. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was surrounded by concentric eyewalls on Monday morning. The original, inner eyewall surrounded an eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km). A larger, outer eyewall with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) surrounded the inner eye and eyewall. The inner eyewall was slowly weakening and the low level convergence was becoming more concentrated at the outer eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls. Storms around the large core of Emnati generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati increased after the concentric eyewalls formed. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Emnati was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 26.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.9. Emnanti was similar in intensity and size to Hurricane Rita when Rita hit southwest Louisiana in 2005.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though Tropical Cyclone Emnati will be in an environment favorable for intensification, the current eyewall replace cycle could cause Emnati to weaken while the inner eyewall dissipates. Tropical Cyclone Emanti could eventually strengthen again after the eyewall replacement cycle is completed.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti could reach the southeast coast of Madagascar in 36 hours. The center of Emnati could make landfall between Mananjary and Vangaindrano. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar. Emnati will be capable of causing widespread major damage to southern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will bring strong destructive winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Emanti will also cause a significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Madagascar on Sunday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 17.3°S and longitude 55.5°E which put it about 220 miles (355 km) north-northwest of St. Denis, La Reunion. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Madagascar on Sunday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was at the center of Emnati’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Microwave satellite images showed that the inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the existing eye and eyewall. Concentric eyewalls could be forming and an eyewall replacement cycle could be starting.

The potential start of an eyewall replacement cycle caused the size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati to increase. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Emnati’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Emnati was 22.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.8. Tropical Cyclone Emnati was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. The winds in the lower atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though Tropical Cyclone Emnati will be in an environment favorable for intensification, if an eyewall replace cycle occurs Emnati will weaken when the current eyewall dissipates. Tropical Cyclone Emanti could eventually strengthen again after the eyewall replacement cycle is completed.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will move away from La Reunion on Sunday. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could reach the east coast of Madagascar in 48 hours. Emnati could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will bring strong destructive winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Emanti will also cause a significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai’s Wind and Rain Reach Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai’s wind and rain reached Madagascar on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 21.0°S and longitude 48.8°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Mananjary, Madagascar. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Bands in the western side of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai brought wind and rain to east central Madagascar on Saturday morning. The center of Batsirai was just east of the coast of Madagascar and the strongest winds were still offshore. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was the equivalent of a major hurricane. An eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was present at the center of Batsirai. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Batsirai’s circulation.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was large. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 225 miles (360 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.0. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was capable of causing widespread major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will hit the east coast of Madagascar between Nosy Varika and Mananjary during the next 3 hours. Batsirai will bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods especially in regions of steep mountains. Widespread losses of electricity are possible. Batsirai could also cause a serious storm surge along the coast between Nosy Varika and Manajary. The center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could pass close to Fianarantsoa. Batsirai will weaken when it moves inland, but it will continue to drop locally heavy rain over central Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Nears Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai neared the east coast of Madagascar on Friday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 50.8°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east of Mahanoro, Madagascar. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was the equivalent of a major hurricane as it neared the east coast of Madagascar on Friday night. A circular eye was at the center of Batsirai’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Thunderstorms in the northern part of the eyewall weakened in recent hours. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Batsirai was a large tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 225 miles (360 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.4.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 12 hours. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The northwestern part of the circulation around Batsirai could pull drier air sinking down the eastern slopes of mountains in Madagascar into the tropical cyclone. Drier air could cause Tropical Cyclone Batsirai to weaken a little before it reaches Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will hit the east coast of Madagascar between Mahanoro and Nosy Varika in 12 hours. Batsirai will bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods especially in regions of steep mountains. Batsirai could also cause a serious storm surge along the coast between Mahanoro and Nosy Varika. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will weaken when it moves inland, but it will continue to drop locally heavy rain over central Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Strengthens East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai strengthened again east of Madagascar on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 52.2°E which put it about 210 miles (345 km) east-southeast of Toamasina, Madagascar. Batsirai was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai intensified again on Friday morning after it completed another eyewall replacement cycle. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was present at the center of Batsirai. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was a large tropical cyclone after several eyewall replacement cycles. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.5.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could intensity during the next 24 hours unless another eyewall replacement cycle starts.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will hit the east coast of Madagascar near Mahanoro in 24 hours. Batsirai is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods especially in regions of steep mountains. Batsirai could also cause a serious storm surge along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Moves Toward Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai moved toward Madagascar on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 53.6°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) northwest of St. Denis, La Reunion. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai appeared to be nearing the completion of another eyewall replacement cycle on Thursday night. The inner eyewall consisted mostly of a small ring of showers and lower clouds. A much larger eye was evident on satellite images. The outer eyewall consisted of a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the larger eye. Storms near the core of Batsirai’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The completion of another eyewall replacement cycle caused the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai to increase in size again. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 225 miles (365 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.5.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could weaken during the next few hours while it fully completes the eyewall replacement cycle. Batsirai could strengthen again after it completes the eyewall replacement cycle.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could reach the east coast of Madagascar south of Toamasina in 36 hours. Batsirai is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods especially in regions of steep mountains. Batsirai could also cause a serious storm surge along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Drops Heavy Rain on La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped heavy rain on La Reunion on Thursday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 54.6°E which put it about 95 miles (150 km) north-northwest of St. Denis, La Reunion. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped very heavy rain over La Reunion on Thursday morning. A weather station at La Nouvelle reported 516.7 mm (20.34 inches) of rain. Batsirai moved slowly during the past 18 hours. The slow movement caused persistent easterly winds to blow up the eastern sides of mountains. The persistent rising motion produced very heavy rain on the eastern slopes. The very heavy rain was likely causing widespread flash floods. The heavy rain will continue until Tropical Cyclone Batsirai moves farther away from La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai appeared to have concentric eyewalls based on radar images from La Reunion and on satellite images. A small inner eye and eyewall was present inside a larger outer eyewall. The inner eyewall was weakening, but it was still visible on radar and satellite images. Eventually, the inner eyewall will dissipate and the strongest winds will occur in the outer eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Batsirai’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai contracted slightly. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.5.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai is likely to weaken during the next few hours while it completes the eyewall replacement cycle. Batsirai could strengthen again after it completes the eyewall replacement cycle.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to La Reunion during the next 12 hours. The heaviest rain will continue to fall on the eastern slopes of mountains where the winds were blowing up the slopes. Continued heavy rain could cause devastating flash floods in some locations. Weather conditions on La Reunion will improve gradually when Batsirai moves farther away. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could reach the east coast of Madagascar south of Toamasina in 48 hours. Batsirai is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Passes North of La Reunion

The center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai passed north of La Reunion on Wednesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 19.1°S and longitude 55.4°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) north of St. Denis, La Reunion. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai appeared to be in the midst of another eyewall replacement cycle on Wednesday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the inner eye and eyewall. A second, larger eyewall surrounded the inner eyewall and the inner eyewall started to weaken. The outer eyewall contained a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai continued to have a large circulation. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 190 miles (305 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.6.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai is likely to weaken during the next few hours while it completes the eyewall replacement cycle. Batsirai could strengthen again after it completes the eyewall replacement cycle.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to La Reunion during the next 12 hours. Rainbands in the southeastern part of Batsirai’s circulation were also dropping heavy rain over Mauritius. The heaviest rain was falling on the eastern slopes of mountains where the winds were blowing up the slopes. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Weather conditions on La Reunion and Mauritius will improve gradually when Batsirai moves farther away. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could approach the east coast of Madagascar south of Toamasina in 48 hours. Batsirai is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar.