Tag Archives: Port Louis

Tropical Cyclone Calvinia Develops East of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Calvinia developed east of Mauritius on Sunday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Calvinia was located at latitude 20.7°S and longitude 58.7°E which put it about 105 miles (165 km) east-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Calvinia was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms east of Mauritius on Sunday and the system was designated at Tropical Cyclone Calvinia.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Calvinia was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of the circulation.  Bands north and west of the center of Calvinia consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The distributions of strong winds around the tropical cyclone was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) on the eastern side of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles (95 km) on the western side.

Tropical Cyclone Calvinia will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Calvinia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move east of an upper level trough.  The trough will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  The winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they are probably the reason for the asymmetrical structure of Tropical Cyclone Calvinia.  Calvinia could strengthen during the next several days, but the wind shear is likely to prevent significant intensification.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Calvinia toward the southeast.  On its anticipated track Calvinia will move away from Mauritius and La Reunion.  Since Tropical Cyclone Calvinia will be east of Mauritius, the strongest part of the circulation will remain east of Mauritius and La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Belna Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon North of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Belna strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon north of Madagascar on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Belna was located at latitude 9.4°N and longitude 48.2°E which put it about 440 miles (710 km) north-northeast of Mahajanga, Madagascar.  Belna was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Belna continued to strengthen on Friday.  Microwave satellite images continued to indicate that an eye was in the process of forming.  The ring of thunderstorms around the developing eye got stronger and the strongest winds were found in that ring of storms.  More thunderstorms developed in the bands revolving around the core of Belna.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Belna was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Belna will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Belna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Belna will continue to intensify during the weekend and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Belna will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high will steer Belna toward the south-southwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Belna could approach the coast of Madagascar near Mahajanga in about three days.  Belna could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches the coast.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ambali weakened almost as fast as it intensified on Thursday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ambali was located at latitude 11.7°S and longitude 62.1°E which put it about 670 miles (1080 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Ambali was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ambali Rapidly Intensifies to Threshold of Cat. 5

Tropical Cyclone Ambali rapidly intensified to the threshold of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ambali was located at latitude 10.8°S and longitude 62.1°E which put it about 740 miles (1190 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Ambali was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 932 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ambali rapidly intensified from a minimal tropical storm to the threshold of a Cat. 5 hurricane in less than 36 hours over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  Nearly perfect environmental conditions including warm water and little vertical wind shear allowed Ambali to strengthen very rapidly.  A small circular eye formed at the center of the tropical cyclone.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Ambali.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ambali was small which also contributed to the rapid intensification.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Ambali was 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.2.

Tropical Cyclone Ambali may be near its maximum intensity, although it could strengthen a little more during the next six to twelve hours.  Ambali will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will remain in an area where the upper level winds are weak during the next six to twelve hours and there will be little vertical wind shear during that time.  Tropical Cyclone Ambali will approach an area where there are strong upper level westerly winds during the weekend.  Ambali will weaken when the wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Ambali will move around the western part of a subtropical high pressure over the South Indian Ocean.  The high will steer Ambali toward the south-southwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ambali will move toward Mauritius.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Belna was intensifying north of Madagascar.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Belna was located at latitude 7.5°S and longitude 49.0°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) north of Madagsacar.  Belna was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Belna exhibited much greater organization on Thursday.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of circulation on microwave satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving about the core of Belna.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Belna will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Belna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Belna is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday.  Belna could intensify rapidly once an eye and eyewall are full formed.  It could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Belna will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over the South Indian Ocean.  The high will steer Belna toward the south-southwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Blena could approach the coast of northwestern Madagascar in three or four days.  Belna could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Gelena Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Gelena strengthened into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gelena was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 56.9°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Gelena was moving toward the southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gelena strengthened and grew larger on Friday.  An eye appeared intermittently at the center of Gelena on satellite imagery.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  More bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Gelena was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.9.  Those indices indicated that tropical Cyclone Gelena was capable of causing major regional damage.

Tropical Cyclone Gelena will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification for another 12 to 24 hours.  Gelena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level trough near Madagascar will produce westerly winds which are blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Gelena.  Those winds will produce some vertical wind shear and they will inhibit upper level divergence toward the western periphery of Gelena.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone Gelena could strengthen on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Gelena will move south of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Gelena in a southeasterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gelena will pass north of Mauritius.  However, Gelena could approach Rodrigues within 36 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Gelena could bring strong winds and heavy rain to Rodrigues.

Elsewhere over the southern Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Funani was speeding toward colder water.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Funani was located at latitude 26.3°S and longitude 73.4°E which put it about 805 miles (1295 km) east-southeast of Rodrigues.  Funani was moving toward the southeast at 28 m.p.h. (45 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Stronger Tropical Cyclone Gelena Moves Toward Rodrigues

A stronger Tropical Cyclone Gelena moved toward Rodrigues on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gelena was located at latitude 14.8°S and longitude 54.5°E which put it about 340 miles (550 km) north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Gelena was moving toward the south-southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gelena strengthened into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Thursday.  An eye cleared at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Gelena.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Gelena will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Gelena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an environment where the upper level winds are weak and the there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Gelena will intensify during the next 24 to 36 hours and it could strengthen rapidly at times.  Gelena will likely become the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Gelena will move south of a subtropical ridge which will steer the tropical cyclone toward the southeast.  On its anticipated track the core of Gelena will pass north of Mauritius in about 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Gelena could approach Rodrigues in 36 to 48 hours.  Gelena could be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Funani intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane as it moved away from Rodrigues.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Funani was located at latitude 22.2°S and longitude 69.3°E which put it about 430 miles (690 km) east-southeast of Rodrigues, Mauritius.  Funani was moving toward the southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Funani Brushes Rodrigues, Gelena Also a Threat

The western edge of Tropical Cyclone Funani brushed Rodrigues on Wednesday and Tropical Cyclone Gelena also posed a threat to the island.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Funani was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 65.1°E which put it about 515 miles (830 km) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius and about 155 miles (250 km) northeast of Rodrigues.  Funani was moving toward the southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Funani rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday.  An eye was apparent on satellite images.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the core of Funani generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Funani.  There were more bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Funani will be in an environment favorable for intensification for another 12 to 24 hours.  Funani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Funani could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Funani will move over cooler water at the end of the week and it will start to weaken in a less favorable environment.

Tropical Cyclone Funani is moving south of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southeast.  A general motion toward the southeast is expected to continue during the next few days.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Funani will pass east of Rodrigues.  Surface observations on Rodrigues indicate that the western portion of Funani is dropping rain on that island, but winds are generally blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Gelena also poses a threat to Rodrigues.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gelena was located at latitude 12.5°S and longitude 53.2°E which put it about 535 miles (865 km) north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Gelena was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gelena also intensified rapidly on Wednesday.  A tiny, pinhole eye was apparent on satellite imagery.  A thin ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the core of Gelena were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Gelena.  There were more bands in the northern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 90 miles (150 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gelena will also move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Gelena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Gelena is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Gelena could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next several days.

Although Tropical Cyclone Gelena is currently weaker and smaller than Tropical Cyclone Funani, it may pose a greater risk to Rodrigues.  Gelena is forecast to pass closer to Rodrigues than Funani will pass and Gelena may be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it moves near Rodrigues.  Gelena could bring strong winds and heavy rain to Rodrigues in about 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Funani Develops Northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Funani developed northeast of Mauritius on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Funani was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 64.0°E which put it about 505 miles (815 km) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius and about 265 miles (425 km) north of Rodrigues.  Funani was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Funani organized quickly on Tuesday.  An inner rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms developed and were revolving around the core of Funani.  There were more bands on the eastern side of the circulation.  Storms near the core began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Funani will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Funani will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Funani could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 24 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane in about 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Funani will move near the southeastern end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge and a trough over the southwestern Indian Ocean will steer Funani in a general south-southwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Funani will remain east of Mauritius and La Reunion.  Funani could be near Rodrigues in about 24 hours.  It could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at that time.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 13S formed east of Madagascar.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 13S was located at latitude 12.3°S and longitude 53.6°E which put it about 570 miles (920 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida Passes East of Mauritius

Strong Tropical Cyclone Cilida passed east of Mauritius on Saturday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 60.3°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) east of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Cilida was moving toward the south-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida was being steered to the south-southeast between an upper level trough near Madagascar and a subtropical ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  Those weather systems steered Cilida east of Mauritius.  Northwesterly winds blowing on the eastern side of the upper level trough were causing vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida was weakening, but it was still the equivalent of a major hurricane.  There was a circular eye at the center of Cilida.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cilida.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 115 miles (185 km) from the center.  Cilida passed far enough to the east of Mauritius that the strongest winds remained offshore.  A weather station at Belle Mare on the east coast of Mauritius reported a maximum wind speed of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h).  An automated weather station on Signal Mountain reported a maximum wind speed of 49 m.p.h. (79 km/h).  Tropical Cyclone Cilida probably brought winds to tropical storm force to Mauritius, especially at higher elevations.

The stronger rainbands around Tropical Cyclone Cilida also passed east of Mauritius.  Cilida dropped light rain over most of Mauritius.  Heavier rain did fall over locations where the wind blew up the slopes of ridges and mountains.  1.44 inches (36.6 mm) of rain fell at Mon Bois and 1.31 inches (33.4 mm) fell at Mare Aux Vacoas.

The upper level trough over Madagascar will continue to steer Tropical Cyclone Cilida toward the south-southeast.  On its anticipated track Cilida will move farther away from Mauritius.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida will continue to weaken as it moves over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and the vertical wind shear increases.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Cilida Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Cilida strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 57.8°E which put it about 310 miles (505 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Cilida was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 931 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Cilida was very well organized.  A circular eye was at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cilida.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Cilida was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 95 miles (155 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Cilida was 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.6.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida may have peaked in intensity, but it will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone for another 24 to 36 hours.  Cilida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C for about another 24 hours.  Then it will start to move over colder waters.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida will move toward the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes and the vertical wind shear will increase in about 36 hours.  When Cilida moves over colder water and under stronger upper level winds, it will weaken more quickly.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The ridge will start to steer Cilida toward the southeast on Saturday.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida could be a little northeast of Mauritius in about 24 hours.  It will still be a powerful tropical cyclone at that time.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Kenanga continued to weaken well to the southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenanga was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 78.5°E which put it about 760 miles (1225 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Kenanga was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida Forms North of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Cilida formed north of Mauritius on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida was located at latitude 12.2°S and longitude 59.8°E which put it about 585 miles (945 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Cilida was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 55 m.p.h. (90 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Cilida organized quickly on Wednesday. A small circular eye formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms formed around the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  A strong band of storms wrapped around the western and northern sides of Cilida.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cilida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Cilida will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 to 72 hours.  Cilida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Cilida is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Thursday and it could intensify rapidly.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane in two or three days.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Cilida toward the south during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cilida could approach Mauritius from the north in about 48 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Kenanga drifted southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center Tropical Cyclone Kenanga was located at latitude 16.5°S and longitude 81.9°E which put it about 910 miles (1470 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Kenanga was stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.